THE EARLY LINE URI VS DAYTON

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 4 years ago

The opening line is out nice and early today at Dayton - 9 1/2 . If you are inclinned to bet this one , grab it now because that is a huge number for Dayton to cover and I sincerely dubt that they can do it. I expect this game to be tight from wire to wire . I believe Vegas has severely under valued the Rams here. I'll bet nobody on either fan bandwagon thinks this is a ten point game . Could it be ? sure , but it could just as likely be a URI 10 point win as a Dayton 10 point win.

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 4 years ago

........well, I have not gone to book in a awhile, doctors orders of course, but gotta think taken the points is a ranch bet.....

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 4 years ago

A slight dip down to Dayton - 9 now. Expect this to continue downward into tomorrow .

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 4 years ago

Seems high.

HobbyBurley · Unread post by **HobbyBurley** » 4 years ago

My book doesn’t have it yet but if it stays 9 or higher, I’d be thrilled. I was thinking somewhere between 6-8.

sevegny7 · Unread post by **sevegny7** » 4 years ago

My book still had 9.5. Took it. We tend to play good in UD arena over the last few years. Hopefully it is yet another good day for Rhody!

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 4 years ago

Rhody by 7.

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 4 years ago

some sites are now up to Dayton - 10 . don't see URI losing by 10 the way they are playing and maybe not losing at all . This could be theasiest money of the year , but of course we won't know until at least halftime . Shocked that URI is getting 10 . Is knowledge of the Rams that misguided ?

FDshoes · Unread post by **FDshoes** » 4 years ago

luke wrote: ↑4 years ago some sites are now up to Dayton - 10 . don't see URI losing by 10 the way they are playing and maybe not losing at all . This could be theasiest money of the year , but of course we won't know until at least halftime . Shocked that URI is getting 10 . Is knowledge of the Rams that misguided ?

Probably not, i thought it would be in the -7 range. Dayton is legit. They would be favored on neutral court then add in the home court factor. I would personally take Rhody but Dayton has been more in the national spotlight so bettors will be more apt to take them driving up the spread.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

I thought it would be Dayton-8 so I like URI +10 seems like too many points

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

Opened at 9
Now you can get URI +10 was the betting public is putting money on the flyers

https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-ba ... 02-11-20#J

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 4 years ago

For this game I hope to be smart, sharp, late......

urirx · Unread post by **urirx** » 4 years ago

Dayton has blown out pretty much everybody but STL this season. if you are the casual bettor, this line makes sense. Through Keaney Blue shades, I believe this line is easy money

Rhody83 · Unread post by **Rhody83** » 4 years ago

urirx wrote: ↑4 years ago Dayton has blown out pretty much everybody but STL this season. if you are the casual bettor, this line makes sense. Through Keaney Blue shades, I believe this line is easy money

They beat Duquesne by 4, Richmond by 8, SLU by 2 in OT & SLU by 6.
The only good A10 teams the blew out were VCU by 14 (Rhody beat them by 12) and the Bonnies by 26.
So out of ten A10 games they have beat two good teams by 10+ and have four games by 8 or less.
They have blown out a lot of the weak teams. They still have two vs Rhody, at VCU and Duquesne left.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

Dayton is one of the best A10 teams in my lifetime and could end up being the best of the current configuration/era of the conference, so I mean no disrespect to them. But almost all of Dayton’s reputation and metrics as one of the top-5 teams in the country was built over a three day stretch in Maui when they blew out Georgia and Va Tech and took Kansas to overtime. To be clear, that is one hell of a three day stretch and more impressive than any three consecutive games that URI has played this year, AND even if you take those three games away they are 19-1 and a clear...idk...top-20ish team. But those other 20 games are mainly blowouts of weaker teams, some tighter ones against competent teams in conference and an OT loss to the one other surefire tournament team they played (Colorado neutral).

I am not making the case that Dayton secretly isn’t good or that they aren’t deserving of their high ranking - they are talented and they’ve played excellent over the course of the season and they 100% deserve to be where they are. I just don’t know that they’re invincible. I think URI can win this game, despite the betting line or the metric predictions or whatever.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

And look at Dayton’s only losses.
OT loss to #3 Kansas in Maui
OT loss to #16 Colorado in Chicago

No bad losses

Dayton could be undefeated

I would tough the 10 point spread for this game either way. URI could outright win it, Dayton could win by 20. Its the beauty of College Basketball. Can’t wait for tonight.

josephski · Unread post by **josephski** » 4 years ago

TruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago Dayton is one of the best A10 teams in my lifetime and could end up being the best of the current configuration/era of the conference, so I mean no disrespect to them. But almost all of Dayton’s reputation and metrics as one of the top-5 teams in the country was built over a three day stretch in Maui when they blew out Georgia and Va Tech and took Kansas to overtime. To be clear, that is one hell of a three day stretch and more impressive than any three consecutive games that URI has played this year, AND even if you take those three games away they are 19-1 and a clear...idk...top-20ish team. But those other 20 games are mainly blowouts of weaker teams, some tighter ones against competent teams in conference and an OT loss to the one other surefire tournament team they played (Colorado neutral).

I am not making the case that Dayton secretly isn’t good or that they aren’t deserving of their high ranking - they are talented and they’ve played excellent over the course of the season and they 100% deserve to be where they are. I just don’t know that they’re invincible. I think URI can win this game, despite the betting line or the metric predictions or whatever.

I've been really impressed every time I watched Dayton. Maybe they wouldn't be #6 if they were in the Big 10, ACC, etc. this year but they'll still be right with Maryland, WVU and LSU in terms of toughest teams we've played this season. We can't have a game like Maryland where Fatts, Jeff and Langevine all played poorly. Ideally it won't be a game like LSU where LSU couldn't miss in the second half. If we can play like we did against WVU then we can definitely win. Ending up with repeats of the Maryland game or LSU game and we'll lose by double digits.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

Moved to 10.5 on my sportsbook account we can cover this

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

This URI Team on this 10 Game winning streak is significantly improved over the team that lost to LSU, Maryland and West Virginia

I would love to see THIS TEAM NOW be able to play all 3 of those games over again.

Since playing those 3 games and since the losses to Brown and Richmond:

Russell has dramatically improved his 3P and overall shooting to 45% during the 10 game win streak

Dowtin is much more active in bringing the ball up, passing and leading the team

Walker has become eligible and a solid contributor - providing relief for Langevine and Harris

Toppin and Long have gained valuable experience and they are contributing solid minutes on offense and especially on defense

Coaching staff has grown with experience. Benching Russell following the Richmond game was a wake up call for the whole team

Tate and Hammond are gone

Harris has improved on defense and offense

Defensive pressure has increased significantly among all players - especially Dowtin and Langevine

Team is playing very unselfish basketball - throwing the extra pass often - especially noticeable improvement with Russell

Team's confidence in each other and with the Coaching staff has grown tremendously

Players and Coaches are having a lot of fun

Russell, Dowtin and Martin could be the best Guard Threesome in the A10 and among the best in the Nation

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

Certain teams come on as the season progresses and we are playing our best right now

I bet if we play at Brown tonight we win by 10-15

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

I think we would now beat Brown by 25 the way this team is now playing

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

josephski wrote: ↑4 years ago
TruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago Dayton is one of the best A10 teams in my lifetime and could end up being the best of the current configuration/era of the conference, so I mean no disrespect to them. But almost all of Dayton’s reputation and metrics as one of the top-5 teams in the country was built over a three day stretch in Maui when they blew out Georgia and Va Tech and took Kansas to overtime. To be clear, that is one hell of a three day stretch and more impressive than any three consecutive games that URI has played this year, AND even if you take those three games away they are 19-1 and a clear...idk...top-20ish team. But those other 20 games are mainly blowouts of weaker teams, some tighter ones against competent teams in conference and an OT loss to the one other surefire tournament team they played (Colorado neutral).

I am not making the case that Dayton secretly isn’t good or that they aren’t deserving of their high ranking - they are talented and they’ve played excellent over the course of the season and they 100% deserve to be where they are. I just don’t know that they’re invincible. I think URI can win this game, despite the betting line or the metric predictions or whatever.
I've been really impressed every time I watched Dayton. Maybe they wouldn't be #6 if they were in the Big 10, ACC, etc. this year but they'll still be right with Maryland, WVU and LSU in terms of toughest teams we've played this season. We can't have a game like Maryland where Fatts, Jeff and Langevine all played poorly. Ideally it won't be a game like LSU where LSU couldn't miss in the second half. If we can play like we did against WVU then we can definitely win. Ending up with repeats of the Maryland game or LSU game and we'll lose by double digits.

Not sure if you’ve just been watching Dayton this whole time or what, but if you’ve been watching URI also then it’s probably pretty clear that URI is not the same team as it was in November. I guess the thrust of my post was to question whether Dayton is the same team (relative to the rest of college basketball) as they were in November. They’ve obviously been great all year and nobody has beaten them in the conference yet, so I’m not saying they aren’t. Just more wondering out load because they were blowing the doors off of cupcakes and middling P5 teams alike a few months ago but A10 teams have been giving them a tougher time lately, with the exception of some of the lower wattage programs plus a Osun-less Bonnies team.

RamStock · Unread post by **RamStock** » 4 years ago

reef wrote: ↑4 years ago Moved to 10.5 on my sportsbook account we can cover this

I’m seeing -10.5 also which is real surprising. You wouldn’t think people would be jumping on Dayton to cover -10.5 with the way URI has played and also Dayton hasn’t been as dominate lately

Shinze88 · Unread post by **Shinze88** » 4 years ago

Well the money is obviously coming in for Dayton which is concerning, I know I felt much better about this game before this thread started.

Justns11 · Unread post by **Justns11** » 4 years ago

I think a lot of people just see a top 10 (almost top 5) team playing at home against an unranked team and assume the top 10 team is going to win by more than 10 points.

giovanni · Unread post by **giovanni** » 4 years ago

It went to 10.5 at Fanduel in NJ earlier, actually hit 11 came back to 10.5. While line movements will grab your attention, if it meant anything, all gamblers would be rich and Vegas out of business. To my knowledge that is not the case with either.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 4 years ago

We were 8 point dogs @ VCU and look what happened.

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 4 years ago

Shinze88 wrote: ↑4 years ago Well the money is obviously coming in for Dayton which is concerning, I know I felt much better about this game before this thread started.

It's public money, not sharp money, going on Dayton. The ranked team at home against an unranked opponent.

Sharps are on URI. Remember - Vegas was built on the public bettors because they are reactionary and foolish.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

Shinze88 wrote: ↑4 years ago Well the money is obviously coming in for Dayton which is concerning, I know I felt much better about this game before this thread started.

Why do you say that, Vegas gets rich off games like this. I like all the money going UDs way.

Shinze88 · Unread post by **Shinze88** » 4 years ago

bigappleram wrote: ↑4 years ago
Shinze88 wrote: ↑4 years ago Well the money is obviously coming in for Dayton which is concerning, I know I felt much better about this game before this thread started.
Why do you say that, Vegas gets rich off games like this. I like all the money going UDs way.

I dont know, I think my Rhody paranoia kicks into full gear once February rolls in. I hope we have a good showing tonight.

RamStock · Unread post by **RamStock** » 4 years ago

Up to -11 in some of the Vegas casinos now. Did Jimmy Burke and the mafia get to the URI players? This is too high. If you could bet RI teams at the Tiverton casino I would take URI now

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

Yes -11 on my sportsbook account time to get down on URI as I think late cash will push it back to 10.5 ???

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

It’s interesting. KenPom has Dayton as about a 14 point favorite, Sagarin has them as about an 8 point favorite. Almost like Vegas is splitting the difference. Knowing the history here, I think I’d take Rhody with the points but in the end I’m not going to bet this game. Want to just watch it as a fan without the added anxiety of money on the line.

phipsiGD'11 · Unread post by **phipsiGD'11** » 4 years ago

RhodyKyle wrote: ↑4 years ago
Shinze88 wrote: ↑4 years ago Well the money is obviously coming in for Dayton which is concerning, I know I felt much better about this game before this thread started.
It's public money, not sharp money, going on Dayton. The ranked team at home against an unranked opponent.

Sharps are on URI. Remember - Vegas was built on the public bettors because they are reactionary and foolish.

Came here to post the same picture of the money breakdown.
The fact that URI has more money and more bets going to eat and the line moved up should reflect poorly for us. Means Vegas is begging people to take URI because they think Dayton will cover.
Is my thought process off?

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

Usually depends if it’s sharp money or square money moving the line. If it’s the pros moving the line then could be cause for concern if it’s amateurs moving in then I wouldn’t worry about it

Brian Forster · Unread post by **Brian Forster** » 4 years ago

I got it at 11. Bought a point for 12

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 4 years ago

phipsiGD'11 wrote: ↑4 years ago
RhodyKyle wrote: ↑4 years ago
Shinze88 wrote: ↑4 years ago Well the money is obviously coming in for Dayton which is concerning, I know I felt much better about this game before this thread started.
It's public money, not sharp money, going on Dayton. The ranked team at home against an unranked opponent.

Sharps are on URI. Remember - Vegas was built on the public bettors because they are reactionary and foolish.
Came here to post the same picture of the money breakdown.
The fact that URI has more money and more bets going to eat and the line moved up should reflect poorly for us. Means Vegas is begging people to take URI because they think Dayton will cover.
Is my thought process off?

That only makes it more enticing to bet on URI. When you see sharp money on one side and a reverse line movement, you hammer the side the sharps are on. Vegas is tricking the public into thinking their assumption is right and Dayton is the team to bet on. The public doesn't look at the bet/money breakdown.

RAM67 · Unread post by **RAM67** » 4 years ago

I wanted to lay 10K on the Rams, but my wife would only give me 12 bucks, plus none of my neighbors wanted to bet me. Am I sharp or the other thing?

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

The most prolific bettors are right 55-60% of the time. Wouldn't read a ton into it either way. Vegas has been pretty far off with some of our lines, including VCU and PC at home as virtual pick em's and trash GW only getting 8-9 points.

UD90 · Unread post by **UD90** » 4 years ago

No way Dayton covers unless Harris and Langevine both foul out. The teams we blow out don't get back in transition. 7 point win best case. OT 3-5 point loss worse case from a Dayton perspective.

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 4 years ago

Vegas has been wrong more than they have been right this season , meaning many of the spreads haven't been close to the actual game spread and
a few have been easy money .. This looks like another easy money bet . don't go crazy but I would be very confident taking the Rams tonight with
anythinh over 8.

URI'21 · Unread post by **URI'21** » 4 years ago

luke wrote: ↑4 years ago Vegas has been wrong more than they have been right this season , meaning many of the spreads haven't been close to the actual game spread and
a few have been easy money .. This looks like another easy money bet . don't go crazy but I would be very confident taking the Rams tonight with
anythinh over 8.

Agreed. The second I saw Rams +11 I bet my tuition on it

TheRealBenEaves · Unread post by **TheRealBenEaves** » 4 years ago

What was the SLU @ Dayton line Saturday? I feel like the move to +11 now is straight disrespect. People out there are hammering Dayton.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 4 years ago

Dayton -14 vs SLU

DC_Rams · Unread post by **DC_Rams** » 4 years ago

URI'21 wrote: ↑4 years ago
luke wrote: ↑4 years ago Vegas has been wrong more than they have been right this season , meaning many of the spreads haven't been close to the actual game spread and
a few have been easy money .. This looks like another easy money bet . don't go crazy but I would be very confident taking the Rams tonight with
anythinh over 8.
Agreed. The second I saw Rams +11 I bet my tuition on it

Dear God I hope you’re kidding lol

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 4 years ago

URI'21 wrote: ↑4 years ago
luke wrote: ↑4 years ago Vegas has been wrong more than they have been right this season , meaning many of the spreads haven't been close to the actual game spread and
a few have been easy money .. This looks like another easy money bet . don't go crazy but I would be very confident taking the Rams tonight with
anythinh over 8.
Agreed. The second I saw Rams +11 I bet my tuition on it

Good play. That's the spirit!

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 4 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote: ↑4 years ago
URI'21 wrote: ↑4 years ago
luke wrote: ↑4 years ago Vegas has been wrong more than they have been right this season , meaning many of the spreads haven't been close to the actual game spread and
a few have been easy money .. This looks like another easy money bet . don't go crazy but I would be very confident taking the Rams tonight with
anythinh over 8.
Agreed. The second I saw Rams +11 I bet my tuition on it
Good play. That's the spirit!

...... maybe if Bernie wins WH, you won’t have to worry...

URI'21 · Unread post by **URI'21** » 4 years ago

Haha, it's good I was joking because thank God I didn't.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

So much for the line being way out of whack

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 4 years ago

First loss of the year betting Rhody games, it was a good run.

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