2019-20 Bracketology

[adam914]

[rambone 78]

I think this team has become mature enough so that they won't overlook anybody....of course still no guarantee of success though.

We have played pretty well on the road lately, and that's a sign of focus. As long as we keep bringing it in the 2nd half of games, we should be good.

Still, when it comes to UMass and Fordham road games, it's walk on eggshells time.

Maybe this time it will be different.

[NYGFan_Section208]

I think this team has become mature enough so that they won't overlook anybody....of course still no guarantee of success though.

We have played pretty well on the road lately, and that's a sign of focus. As long as we keep bringing it in the 2nd half of games, we should be good.

Still, when it comes to UMass and Fordham road games, it's walk on eggshells time.

Maybe this time it will be different.

It is different now. Like adam (who is almost always right these days) says*...you can't be in danger if you ARE the danger.

*ETA - 'cept Rhody will cover the 16.5, and not just win by 9.

[rambone 78]

I hope he's not right about his prediction of a 9 point win tomorrow.

Yes of course a win is the ultimate goal, but that margin would mean a mediocre performance imo.

We should win by 15-20. Put them away, and give our guards a little break.

Now GW on the road imo will be about a 10 point win. That's OK.

Avoid what might be a trap game there, due to Dayton coming up 3 days later.

[reef]

As long as our players are in a one game at a time mindset then that’s all that matters

We as fans like to look ahead and speculate

[TruePoint]

If we win by 9, I will undoubtedly have moments of stress and aggravation during the game. But as I sit here now, I’d be fine with it. The big thing is not slipping up and getting beat - we have 9 more games and we need at minimum 6 wins (more would be better obviously). Every game we get thru with a win chips away at that total.

[Smokinjimit]

We might be doing better in the cbs poll if they oh I don’t know....had our record right?

We are not 15-6 cbs.
We are 16-5.

Get your shit together.

[adam914]

The good news for everyone is that I am wrong way more often than I am right!

[SmartyBarrett]

Rhode Island (16-5, 8-1; NET: 40, SOS: 29): If an at-large tournament spot comes down to Rhode Island and VCU, we now know which the committee would pick. Rhody completed the regular-season sweep Friday night, which would already give it a leg up even if it didn’t have the better schedule and more impressive group of Quadrant 2 results (5-1). We said last week the Rams snuck up on us. They’re going to stick around for a while too.

[Blue Man]

Rhode Island (16-5, 8-1; NET: 40, SOS: 29): If an at-large tournament spot comes down to Rhode Island and VCU, we now know which the committee would pick. Rhody completed the regular-season sweep Friday night, which would already give it a leg up even if it didn’t have the better schedule and more impressive group of Quadrant 2 results (5-1). We said last week the Rams snuck up on us. They’re going to stick around for a while too.

Love that they used a pic of Fatts in the article as well.

[Rhodyram]

On a side note- The Athletic is a great site and worth the yearly subscription price( can usually find a discount code). Coverage for college basketball is top notch and outstanding in other sports as well. The article posted today about Obi Toppin was a great look into his early years.

[PeterRamTime]

8th team in on bracketmatrix!

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[Rhodymob05]

KPI has URI as a 6 seed. Wowzers.

[DeanDome88]

KPI has URI as a 6 seed. Wowzers.

They must be on the leading edge!

[FDshoes]

KPI has URI as a 6 seed. Wowzers.

Really!?! I would think we would need to finish 7-1 to achieve that seeding. And probably make A10 finals.

[Blue Man]

6 seed would be a dream. But yeah. 7-1 plus some A-10 tourney work to get there.

To be fair...if we win the same amount of games from now til then, as we have since early January...

[FDshoes]

6 seed would be a dream. But yeah. 7-1 plus some A-10 tourney work to get there.

To be fair...if we win the same amount of games from now til then, as we have since early January...

Obviously a complete and unlikely hypothetical, but what do you think the ceiling is for a seed for winning out thru Brooklyn?

28-5 with A10 regular season and tournament champs?

[Blue Man]

6 seed would be a dream. But yeah. 7-1 plus some A-10 tourney work to get there.

To be fair...if we win the same amount of games from now til then, as we have since early January...

Obviously a complete and unlikely hypothetical, but what do you think the ceiling is for a seed for winning out thru Brooklyn?

28-5 with A10 regular season and tournament champs?

Lol. I'm so down to walk down this rabbit hole.

28-5, 20 game winning streak to end the season. 4-5 Q1 wins. Conference and tournament champs. An RPI in the top 10 and a NET in the top 20

That's a top 15 team and a 4 seed. Maybe a 5.

But woooo boy, let's just beat GW on Saturday. Can't win 20 games at once. Just gotta get the next one.

[FDshoes]

No doubt!! And also my exact thoughts. Personally think it would be deserving of a 4 but think it would settle at a 5.

[steviep123]

6 seed would be a dream. But yeah. 7-1 plus some A-10 tourney work to get there.

To be fair...if we win the same amount of games from now til then, as we have since early January...

Obviously a complete and unlikely hypothetical, but what do you think the ceiling is for a seed for winning out thru Brooklyn?

28-5 with A10 regular season and tournament champs?

Lol. I'm so down to walk down this rabbit hole.

28-5, 20 game winning streak to end the season. 4-5 Q1 wins. Conference and tournament champs. An RPI in the top 10 and a NET in the top 20

That's a top 15 team and a 4 seed. Maybe a 5.

But woooo boy, let's just beat GW on Saturday. Can't win 20 games at once. Just gotta get the next one.

Seems fair. That would give us a better resume than 2 years ago, for which we may have been as high as a 4, if we didn't falter at SBU and the 2 Davidson losses.

[theblueram]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 665090002/

Another Rhody mention.

[Blue Man]

Fair assessment:

https://bustingbrackets.com/2020/02/05/ ... eration/3/

Rhode Island Rams (17-5, 9-1 A10)

NET: 40 | KPI: 22 | SOR: 29 | BPI: 50 | KP: 45 | Sag: 45

Q1: 1-3 | Q2: 5-1 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 5-0

Rhode Island is rolling right now and it has placed itself in solid positioning with regard to reaching the NCAA Tournament as a result. Ever since dropping their conference opener, the Rams have won nine straight games and have emerged as a legitimate contender to win the Atlantic 10. They recently secured home victories over VCU and UMass during this past week to move into the single-digit seed category for me. Rhody ranks well in all metrics and boasts solid quadrant records. While only having one Q1 win is a downfall to this resume, the team is 5-1 in Q2. Current Bracketology Status: No. 9 seed

[SmartyBarrett]

Found this as well. Team A is Texas Tech. Team B is Rhode Island.

[rhodyfan3000]

I like it

[Blue Man]

Another piece on the Athletic from Seth Davis:

https://theathletic.com/1578813/2020/02 ... lots-more/

Bubble Watch:

5. Rhode Island. The Rams are just one game behind Dayton in the Atlantic 10, but their only Quad 1 win came on the road against VCU. (Friday’s win over VCU doesn’t count as a Q1 win because it was at home and the Rams are 36th in the NET.) URI has two games remaining against Dayton. If it can somehow split those and hold serve on the others, it would be in great position for an at-large bid.


Pretty much what everyone on here has been saying - don't lose a landmine game to a Q3/Q4, win 1 against Dayton.

[TruePoint]

I really don’t think we have to go 7-1 down the stretch to get in. If we did do that, then you’re looking at a 24-7/16-2 record against a top-50 schedule, multiple Q1 wins, close to 10 Q2 wins...that’s the resume of a team in the top half of a bracket, not a 10 seed. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take that. Obviously. But I think to come in thru the side door you could do it with 5-3 down the stretch, 2 losses to Dayton and a trip to A10 final. Semifinal in that scenario puts you square on the bubble, true 50/50 to get in. That’s my opinion.

[Section104]

I really don’t think we have to go 7-1 down the stretch to get in. If we did do that, then you’re looking at a 24-7/16-2 record against a top-50 schedule, multiple Q1 wins, close to 10 Q2 wins...that’s the resume of a team in the top half of a bracket, not a 10 seed. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take that. Obviously. But I think to come in thru the side door you could do it with 5-3 down the stretch, 2 losses to Dayton and a trip to A10 final. Semifinal in that scenario puts you square on the bubble, true 50/50 to get in. That’s my opinion.

agree with this...would prefer just finishing the season 11-0 to eliminate doubt, however.

[RhodyKyle]

For frame of reference, here is what Ken Pomeroy predicts for URI the rest of the way.

[Rhody15]

I keep coming back to that Davidson game, that one is huuuuuuge.

[RamStock]

I really don’t think we have to go 7-1 down the stretch to get in. If we did do that, then you’re looking at a 24-7/16-2 record against a top-50 schedule, multiple Q1 wins, close to 10 Q2 wins...that’s the resume of a team in the top half of a bracket, not a 10 seed. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take that. Obviously. But I think to come in thru the side door you could do it with 5-3 down the stretch, 2 losses to Dayton and a trip to A10 final. Semifinal in that scenario puts you square on the bubble, true 50/50 to get in. That’s my opinion.

I agree. 6-2 will get them in the tourney. It means they either got one huge win against Dayton or their only two loses were to Dayton. Bubble isn’t great at all. Many more loses to come for these teams. I always hear about opportunities they will have, but that means opportunities to lose also. This applies to a PC who isn’t consistent enough not to lose some of their remaining games

[bigappleram]

Found this as well. Team A is Texas Tech. Team B is Rhode Island.

You mean Texas Tech that is Creighton's best OOC win...more fodder for the overhyped BE.

[Blue Man]

I really don’t think we have to go 7-1 down the stretch to get in. If we did do that, then you’re looking at a 24-7/16-2 record against a top-50 schedule, multiple Q1 wins, close to 10 Q2 wins...that’s the resume of a team in the top half of a bracket, not a 10 seed. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take that. Obviously. But I think to come in thru the side door you could do it with 5-3 down the stretch, 2 losses to Dayton and a trip to A10 final. Semifinal in that scenario puts you square on the bubble, true 50/50 to get in. That’s my opinion.

I think if you go 5-3, you HAVE to beat Dayton once. The other 2 losses would have to be St Louis and @Davidson if they both stay Q2.

Without the Dayton win, I think you can only afford 1 Q2 loss to SLU or @Davidson. A Q3/Q4 torpedos our chances and makes work to do in the A10T.

[Section104]

I really don’t think we have to go 7-1 down the stretch to get in. If we did do that, then you’re looking at a 24-7/16-2 record against a top-50 schedule, multiple Q1 wins, close to 10 Q2 wins...that’s the resume of a team in the top half of a bracket, not a 10 seed. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take that. Obviously. But I think to come in thru the side door you could do it with 5-3 down the stretch, 2 losses to Dayton and a trip to A10 final. Semifinal in that scenario puts you square on the bubble, true 50/50 to get in. That’s my opinion.

I think if you go 5-3, you HAVE to beat Dayton once. The other 2 losses would have to be St Louis and @ Duquesne if they both stay Q2.

Without the Dayton win, I think you can only afford 1 Q2 loss to SLU or @Duquesne. A Q3/Q4 torpedos our chances and makes work to do in the A10T.

I think you mean Davidson

[RhodyRam86]

I really don’t think we have to go 7-1 down the stretch to get in. If we did do that, then you’re looking at a 24-7/16-2 record against a top-50 schedule, multiple Q1 wins, close to 10 Q2 wins...that’s the resume of a team in the top half of a bracket, not a 10 seed. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take that. Obviously. But I think to come in thru the side door you could do it with 5-3 down the stretch, 2 losses to Dayton and a trip to A10 final. Semifinal in that scenario puts you square on the bubble, true 50/50 to get in. That’s my opinion.

I think if you go 5-3, you HAVE to beat Dayton once. The other 2 losses would have to be St Louis and @ Duquesne if they both stay Q2.

Without the Dayton win, I think you can only afford 1 Q2 loss to SLU or @Duquesne. A Q3/Q4 torpedos our chances and makes work to do in the A10T.

I think you mean Davidson...not Duquesne.

[Blue Man]

I really don’t think we have to go 7-1 down the stretch to get in. If we did do that, then you’re looking at a 24-7/16-2 record against a top-50 schedule, multiple Q1 wins, close to 10 Q2 wins...that’s the resume of a team in the top half of a bracket, not a 10 seed. Don’t get me wrong, I’d take that. Obviously. But I think to come in thru the side door you could do it with 5-3 down the stretch, 2 losses to Dayton and a trip to A10 final. Semifinal in that scenario puts you square on the bubble, true 50/50 to get in. That’s my opinion.

I think if you go 5-3, you HAVE to beat Dayton once. The other 2 losses would have to be St Louis and @ Duquesne if they both stay Q2.

Without the Dayton win, I think you can only afford 1 Q2 loss to SLU or @Duquesne. A Q3/Q4 torpedos our chances and makes work to do in the A10T.

I think you mean Davidson

Lol I do.

[PeterRamTime]

8-0 we are playing for like a 5 or 4 seed or something amazing like that entering the A-10 tournament.

7-1 super in with the ability to get to a 6 maybe?

6-2 including a win over Dayton or two should put us pretty comfy. If it's two losses to Dayton I think a win in the quarterfinals puts us in a comfortable spot especially since it's likely that win would be a quad 2 over someone like Duqesne or SLU.

5-3 even with a win over Dayton we are a win or two from clinching it in the conference tournament.

At 4-4 I think we are close to collapse mode anyway. That would probably mean two losses to Dayton and not holding serve in two games that we are favored to win.

Also, if we dont beat Dayton I there is a strong chance we get jumped by some power conference school from the big 12 big ten or big east because every game they play is pretty much a Q1 or Q2.

Lots of work to do!

We are in a really good spot and we keep getting better.

When we got the news Walker and Shep weren't eligible at the beginning of the year there's no way I would think at the beginning of February we would be the 8th team in on bracketmatrix.

Well done coach Cox!

One last note.

I think a lot of folks on here, judging by how paranoid some get over these landmine games, do not realize how good this team is yet.
It is okay to be worried about these landmines, but I'm starting to believe that we are forming that "we expect to win" swagger that all great programs have.

I know it can all come crashing down, but these guys are really locked in, playing hard and executing at a pretty high level right now.

That said. Cant wait for Saturday!

[Section104]

I'm definitely on the paranoid side, but I think it's important to note a few things in our favor:

We have 2 seniors with multiple years of NCAA experience and a Junior that's a big-game hunter
We have 3 1000 point scorers
We have, arguably, the best backcourt in the A10 (guard play is important in March)
We have a clutch FT shooter to close out games
We have a defense-first team to fall back on when shots aren't falling
We have high major length, physicality, and experience

All of that is a good thing. Keep winning!

[NYGFan_Section208]

I'm confused. Been hearing all year that it's all about the quads and the RPI is meaningless now. But, the quads are based on RPI?

[RamIt!]

I think a lot of folks on here, judging by how paranoid some get over these landmine games, do not realize how good this team is yet.
It is okay to be worried about these landmines, but I'm starting to believe that we are forming that "we expect to win" swagger that all great programs have.

No "Great" Programs have that swagger... Going out there and putting it all out there and winning consistently with hard play makes a "Great" program. Teams with swagger always fail eventually. Even if that swagger only last a game or two... i.e. URI vs Brown...

[PeterRamTime]

I think a lot of folks on here, judging by how paranoid some get over these landmine games, do not realize how good this team is yet.
It is okay to be worried about these landmines, but I'm starting to believe that we are forming that "we expect to win" swagger that all great programs have.

No "Great" Programs have that swagger... Going out there and putting it all out there and winning consistently with hard play makes a "Great" program. Teams with swagger always fail eventually. Even if that swagger only last a game or two... i.e. URI vs Brown...

That's what I am trying to say. That we are becoming a great program.

When I said swagger I mean't you go out there and expect to win and know how to get it done consistently.

It is going to take a herculean effort out of GW to stop us.

As of right now it our play suggests that we wont be seeing many more big let downs. We still refuse to blow anybody out really, but since Richmond we have dominated the majority of the time. We are just so poised with our two seniors. Everybody accepts our role and Fatts is the most dominate player we have had in the 21st century.

[ATPTourFan]

I'm confused. Been hearing all year that it's all about the quads and the RPI is meaningless now. But, the quads are based on RPI?

No, RPI is dead. Ignore.

Quads are based on the NET.

[NYGFan_Section208]

OK...I thought I saw something posted here (a grid?) that showed RPI-based Quad system.... then again, I've got a cold and am under the weather a bit.

[SmartyBarrett]

OK...I thought I saw something posted here (a grid?) that showed RPI-based Quad system.... then again, I've got a cold and am under the weather a bit.

You're not going completely crazy... quads USED to be based on RPI. They're now based on NET. That was a change in the two-ish years I believe.

[TruePoint]

You can definitely still find RPI team sheets if you’ve got a weird kink for RPI (sorry to kinkshame anyone!) - you can find just about anything on the internet. But the NCAA won’t look at that so it’s not really worth a whole lot.

[RhowdyRam02]

Today's Bracketville update has us as fourth to last bye and we're a 10 seed in Tampa taking on Rutgers

[reckless jake]

On the Warren Nolan site (www.warrennolan.com) individual team sheets break down the Quads both by Net and RPI.

[Rhody83]

On the Warren Nolan site (www.warrennolan.com) individual team sheets break down the Quads both by Net and RPI.

When I look at the Team Sheets I don’t understand why VCU is 36 and URI is 39.
VCU’s big win is against LSU and LSU is now #28.
VCU is 1-4 vs Q1 and 2-2 vs Q2
URI is 1-3 vs Q1 and 6-1 vs Q2

Combined VCU 3-6 Q1& 2 and URI 7-4

The only explanation I could see is URI’s Q3 loss to Brown. Seems like to much weight on one loss.

[bigappleram]

Agree with you 83, especially when you also consider we beat them TWICE!
However, despite being a bit lower in NET we are getting preference in almost all brackets. In most brackets I see now VCU is either Last 4 in or First 4 out, whereas we are solidly in the field at the moment.

[rambone 78]

Check out Lunardi's bracket on espn.com.

For once that would be awesome.

[rhodysurf]

On the Warren Nolan site (www.warrennolan.com) individual team sheets break down the Quads both by Net and RPI.

When I look at the Team Sheets I don’t understand why VCU is 36 and URI is 39.
VCU’s big win is against LSU and LSU is now #28.
VCU is 1-4 vs Q1 and 2-2 vs Q2
URI is 1-3 vs Q1 and 6-1 vs Q2

Combined VCU 3-6 Q1& 2 and URI 7-4

The only explanation I could see is URI’s Q3 loss to Brown. Seems like to much weight on one loss.

Efficiency. VCU has won a bunch of games by 20+, just crushing lower opponents. While URI has more wins, they are not as efficient in those wins. They rarely crush an opponent start to finish, even the chumps.

It wont make a big difference though. The actual NET rating doesnt matter as much as quadrant wins do