Blue Man wrote: ↑4 years agoAs much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.
Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.
VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.
VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.
The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.
The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.
Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.
In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.
No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.
Agree with most of this, but not sure how we get to 4 Q1 wins. We have VCU on the road as one. I think Alabama is a long shot to become Q1 as is at Davidson. Don't think VCU will be Q1 unless they beat us at the RC so that doesn't help. We'll have 2 opportunities vs. Dayton. I think the most we could realistically expect is 2 (VCU on the road and a split with Dayton).
I actually think 9-2 and a second place finish is the only way to get it done. I think it was TP that brought up the scenario of 4 swing games (VCU, Dayton, at Dayton and at Davidson). I think we need a split in those 4 games (preferably beat VCU and split Dayton) and we MUST win all other games.