NET 2019-2020 Season

[Rhodymob05]

[RhodyRam86]

Updating the ESPN BPI-powered projections, right now they have URI as a 9 seed and finishing second in the conference. This is still projecting 4 A10 bids, but Richmond and VCU are hanging by a thread as 12 seeds.

As much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.

Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.

VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.

VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.

The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.

The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.

Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.

In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.

No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.

Agree with most of this, but not sure how we get to 4 Q1 wins. We have VCU on the road as one. I think Alabama is a long shot to become Q1 as is at Davidson. Don't think VCU will be Q1 unless they beat us at the RC so that doesn't help. We'll have 2 opportunities vs. Dayton. I think the most we could realistically expect is 2 (VCU on the road and a split with Dayton).

I actually think 9-2 and a second place finish is the only way to get it done. I think it was TP that brought up the scenario of 4 swing games (VCU, Dayton, at Dayton and at Davidson). I think we need a split in those 4 games (preferably beat VCU and split Dayton) and we MUST win all other games.

[Rhody83]

URI needs to finish second in the A10. If they do that at 14-4 and beat VCU again they are in. It would be great to beat Dayton once but I don’t think it’s a requirement to get a bid. Two wins against VCU and second place clearly put Rhody ahead of VCU on Selection Sunday.

[Blue Man]

Updating the ESPN BPI-powered projections, right now they have URI as a 9 seed and finishing second in the conference. This is still projecting 4 A10 bids, but Richmond and VCU are hanging by a thread as 12 seeds.

As much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.

Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.

VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.

VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.

The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.

The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.

Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.

In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.

No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.

Agree with most of this, but not sure how we get to 4 Q1 wins. We have VCU on the road as one. I think Alabama is a long shot to become Q1 as is at Davidson. Don't think VCU will be Q1 unless they beat us at the RC so that doesn't help. We'll have 2 opportunities vs. Dayton. I think the most we could realistically expect is 2 (VCU on the road and a split with Dayton).

I actually think 9-2 and a second place finish is the only way to get it done. I think it was TP that brought up the scenario of 4 swing games (VCU, Dayton, at Dayton and at Davidson). I think we need a split in those 4 games (preferably beat VCU and split Dayton) and we MUST win all other games.

Lost in my harebrained theory is the fact that if Bama goes up to the top 30, AND we beat VCU Friday AND they win most of the rest of their games AND get to the top 30 as well - we would now have 3 Q1 wins. Then add 1 Dayton win and voila - 4 Q1 wins.

A lot of hope and a lot of what ifs in there. But that's what a message board is for!

Either way. Beat GMU on Tuesday. That's all that matters.

[reef]

I think 14-4 regardless of how we get there and we are probably 80 % to dance

[Blue Man]

Didn't see this mentioned yet - but YOUR Rhode Island Rams are now getting votes for the top 25.

6 AP votes.

Coaches poll not updated yet.

WELP. Huge week. LETS GO.

[RhodyRam86]

Big game Wednesday night...Alabama at LSU. Let's hope the fighting Saban's take out a little revenge on the Tigers. That would be a huge help to getting the Tide closer to Q1.

[reef]

Andy Katz has URI at #29 in his top 36

[Mongo]

Andy Katz has URI at #29 in his top 36

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... er-36-mens

[rhodylaw]

As much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.

Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.

VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.

VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.

The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.

The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.

Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.

In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.

No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.

Agree with most of this, but not sure how we get to 4 Q1 wins. We have VCU on the road as one. I think Alabama is a long shot to become Q1 as is at Davidson. Don't think VCU will be Q1 unless they beat us at the RC so that doesn't help. We'll have 2 opportunities vs. Dayton. I think the most we could realistically expect is 2 (VCU on the road and a split with Dayton).

I actually think 9-2 and a second place finish is the only way to get it done. I think it was TP that brought up the scenario of 4 swing games (VCU, Dayton, at Dayton and at Davidson). I think we need a split in those 4 games (preferably beat VCU and split Dayton) and we MUST win all other games.

Lost in my harebrained theory is the fact that if Bama goes up to the top 30, AND we beat VCU Friday AND they win most of the rest of their games AND get to the top 30 as well - we would now have 3 Q1 wins. Then add 1 Dayton win and voila - 4 Q1 wins.

A lot of hope and a lot of what ifs in there. But that's what a message board is for!

Either way. Beat GMU on Tuesday. That's all that matters.

We will probably also get a shot at one in the conference tourney, and don’t sleep on Davidson. I see them going on a little run like we did at the end of last year and getting into Q1 range for the away game.

[wpbrown8267]

Rhody now #2 in first four out (behind Bama). In 18 brackets on Bracket matrix

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[NYGFan_Section208]

As much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.

Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.

VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.

VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.

The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.

The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.

Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.

In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.

No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.

At Umass. This team cant lose that game. I think losing both games to Dayton is more realistic

I agree. UMass is the boogeyman under my bed tho.

Just need to be there in person to make sure it doesn't happen...there should be a bus...

[Rhody83]

[reef]

They showed Lunardi bracketelogy on the Kansas game tonight he had 12 from Big 10 and no more than 5 from any other conference

[rambone 78]

They showed Lunardi bracketelogy on the Kansas game tonight he had 12 from Big 10 and no more than 5 from any other conference

This is exactly what the P5 conferences want with the move to 20 league games.

There should be a rule that no more than 50% of a conference can qualify for the dance. 12 teams from one conference is ridiculous.

Or at least a .500 or better conference record.

Just wait, there will be P5 teams going 8-12 or 9-11 and dancing.

[Rhodymob05]

Absolutely, cannot stand the Syracuse’s of the NCAA world.

[ElmCityRhody]

https://nypost.com/2020/01/27/arizona-s ... tion-tool/

[PeterRamTime]

We are second out on bracket matrix

[NYGFan_Section208]

Absolutely, cannot stand the Syracuse’s of the NCAA world.

easy there...easy....

It is kinda cool though that everyone knows what you mean. As in "pulling a Syracuse".... classic.

[TruePoint]

KenPom hasn’t updated for our game yet but I’d expect we jump up to 53. Don’t think we’ll have moved the needle enough to catch Yale but will be in position to move into the top-50 with a win Friday.

[SmartyBarrett]

KenPom up from 55 to 52.

[TruePoint]

I was wrong. Jumped over Yale. Went up more than a half a point in AdjEM.

[SmartyBarrett]

KenPom now has Rhody favored in all of their remaining games except the two Dayton ones. But the VCU game and the Davidson game are basically coin flips.

[Rhody15]

KenPom now has Rhody favored in all of their remaining games except the two Dayton ones. But the VCU game and the Davidson game are basically coin flips.

Davidson was bound to bounce back with how talented Grady and JAG are.

Two of the top players in the league, our road game is gonna be a battle.

(Hopefully Fatts hits a game winning pull-up 3 at the buzzer from that stupid volleyball line.)

[bigappleram]

NET just updated. We are up to #45!

[Rhody83]

VCU jumped 6 spots with their win to #33.

[Blue Man]

VCU jumped 6 spots with their win to #33.

Lose to us but beat Dayton and take care of business the rest of the way? Could be another Q1 win if we can pull off a win on Friday.

[rambone 78]

VCU jumped 6 spots with their win to #33.

Lose to us but beat Dayton and take care of business the rest of the way? Could be another Q1 win if we can pull off a win on Friday.

This might be asking a lot, but it would be nice if us, VCU, and Dayton could all lock up NCAA bids before the conference tourney,

Of course Dayton is 99.99% there already,

[Blue Man]

VCU jumped 6 spots with their win to #33.

Lose to us but beat Dayton and take care of business the rest of the way? Could be another Q1 win if we can pull off a win on Friday.

This might be asking a lot, but it would be nice if us, VCU, and Dayton could all lock up NCAA bids before the conference tourney,

Of course Dayton is 99.99% there already,

If we beat VCU, and both URI and VCU beat Dayton (once) AND take care of business (no Q3/Q4 losses) - thats a very likely scenario with us having at least 3 Q1 wins.

[Running Ram]

Providence still creeping up may become Q2 win after all.

Bama still in range to become a Q1 win, they have 5 Q1 games left to play, if they just defend their home court in those games (2-3), go 3-1 in there Q2 games and take care of business with their remaining 3 Q3/Q4 games, they probably become a Q1 win for us.

We need the Bonnies to rattle off a few wins in a row to re-solidify the Q2 win, they are dangerously close to the cusp of Q2/Q3

put this together with Blue Man's Dayton, VCU, URI's split scenario and we could end up looking at

4-4 Q1
5-1 Q2
7-1 Q3
8-0 Q4

[Section104]

The Dayton resume is actually much weaker than you'd think. That said, their ability to blow out teams, win the games they're supposed to win, and playing top 25 teams close away/neutral keeps their NET ranking near the top of the country.

They have no wins over teams guaranteed to make NCAA tournament (St. Mary's + home against VCU are top two wins) - St. Mary's is in a pretty good spot, but has recent losses to Winthrop, Santa Clara, and Pacific. I'd argue that our win @ VCU trumps any win on their schedule to-date.

I'm not saying they're not an incredibly talented team that has final four potential, because they are, but wins against Georgia and Virginia Tech don't move the needle that much. It will be really interesting to see how much weight the committee puts on NET. Would it be possible a top 5 NET gets dropped to a 4 seed?

[Section104]

URI net report 01 28.png

Providence still creeping up may become Q2 win after all.

Bama still in range to become a Q1 win, they have 5 Q1 games left to play, if they just defend their home court in those games (2-3), go 3-1 in there Q2 games and take care of business with their remaining 3 Q3/Q4 games, they probably become a Q1 win for us.

We need the Bonnies to rattle off a few wins in a row to re-solidify the Q2 win, they are dangerously close to the cusp of Q2/Q3

put this together with Blue Man's Dayton, VCU, URI's split scenario and we could end up looking at

4-4 Q1
5-1 Q2
7-1 Q3
8-0 Q4

The good news is Osun has a concussion, not some long-term knee/back/ankle issue. I think they're a solid team without Osun and will be VERY dangerous when he's back.

[Running Ram]

BTW,
does anyone know what KPI is?

if you look at the top of the team NET sheet posted above it has a list of metrics/ratings. NET, KPI, SOR, KemPom, BPI and Sagrins.
What the heck is KPI?

[bigappleram]

Finish in 2nd in A10 and we are in. A sweep vs VCU will put us in pole position for that, regardless of how we fare against Dayton.

Highly probable PC will become a Q2 win given the strong NET numbers for the BE and they should pick up the necessary wins to get there. Bama becoming Q1 would be huge.

[ramster]

KPI stands for Key Performance Indicator in business, maybe the same here?

[SmartyBarrett]

URI net report 01 28.png

Providence still creeping up may become Q2 win after all.

Bama still in range to become a Q1 win, they have 5 Q1 games left to play, if they just defend their home court in those games (2-3), go 3-1 in there Q2 games and take care of business with their remaining 3 Q3/Q4 games, they probably become a Q1 win for us.

We need the Bonnies to rattle off a few wins in a row to re-solidify the Q2 win, they are dangerously close to the cusp of Q2/Q3

put this together with Blue Man's Dayton, VCU, URI's split scenario and we could end up looking at

4-4 Q1
5-1 Q2
7-1 Q3
8-0 Q4

The good news is Osun has a concussion, not some long-term knee/back/ankle issue. I think they're a solid team without Osun and will be VERY dangerous when he's back.

He will reportedly be back this weekend.

[Rhodymob05]

Still so many games left. How many can we afford to lose?

[Section104]

Still so many games left. How many can we afford to lose?

Capture.JPG

Can we all celebrate the fact we're done with standard definition Stadium network for the year?

[Running Ram]

ugh!
6 of our remaining games are on CBSSN and I have no way of watching those.
I might have to bite the bullet and buy a month of live TV from some service.
So no, lol, S104. I wish all of our games were on Stadium!

[RhodyKyle]

BTW,
does anyone know what KPI is?

if you look at the top of the team NET sheet posted above it has a list of metrics/ratings. NET, KPI, SOR, KemPom, BPI and Sagrins.
What the heck is KPI?

Kevin Pauga. Another KP/Sagarin type of site.

Website looks like it was made with geocities...

[ATPTourFan]

Can we all celebrate the fact we're done with standard definition Stadium network for the year?

Huh? Stadium is crisp HD with professional production and commentary.

[Section104]

Can we all celebrate the fact we're done with standard definition Stadium network for the year?

Huh? Stadium is crisp HD with professional production and commentary.

Maybe this is an issue for me only? I have Xfinity in Nashville and "Stadium HD" looks like I'm watching a replay of our 1998 NCAA tournament on Youtube even though it's through the cable package. I know some Dayton fans had the same issues. I agree with the commentary.

[PeteRI]

I'm just thrilled most of our games are televised. Wasn't so long ago we were hardly on. We've got a real program now.

[Running Ram]

Agreed Pete, but I think some of that is due to the rapidly changing streaming industry and NCAA replay regulations.

[reef]

I agree be nice if us Dayton and VCU have basically locked up bids going into Brooklyn that’s a possible scenario

[URI2006_Andy]

The Dayton resume is actually much weaker than you'd think. That said, their ability to blow out teams, win the games they're supposed to win, and playing top 25 teams close away/neutral keeps their NET ranking near the top of the country.

They have no wins over teams guaranteed to make NCAA tournament (St. Mary's + home against VCU are top two wins) - St. Mary's is in a pretty good spot, but has recent losses to Winthrop, Santa Clara, and Pacific. I'd argue that our win @ VCU trumps any win on their schedule to-date.

I'm not saying they're not an incredibly talented team that has final four potential, because they are, but wins against Georgia and Virginia Tech don't move the needle that much. It will be really interesting to see how much weight the committee puts on NET. Would it be possible a top 5 NET gets dropped to a 4 seed?

It’s shows how important blowing teams out is. That’s the biggest adjustment I’ve seen Cox make since LaSalle. You can see him give the rolling hands signal to run the offense even when we have a comfortable lead late in the game (which is what we should be doing anyways regardless of efficiency numbers). Very few possessions of hold the ball until 10 seconds left on the shot clock.

[Blue Man]

Still so many games left. How many can we afford to lose?

Capture.JPG

It's not about how many - it's about to who.

There are 5 games we absolutely CANNOT lose. Anything in Q3/Q4. We already have 1 loss in that bracket and without a high amount of Q1 wins to back it up, that would end our at-large chances. IF we lose a Q3/Q4, we're looking at a must win VCU and 1 if not both Dayton games to balance out a resume with multiple bad losses.

Win out the rest of our home games is a must, and the Q3/Q4 road games. IF we do that - you can survive a loss at Davidson and at Dayton.

[Section104]

Still so many games left. How many can we afford to lose?

Capture.JPG

It's not about how many - it's about to who.

There are 5 games we absolutely CANNOT lose. Anything in Q3/Q4. We already have 1 loss in that bracket and without a high amount of Q1 wins to back it up, that would end our at-large chances. IF we lose a Q3/Q4, we're looking at a must win VCU and 1 if not both Dayton games to balance out a resume with multiple bad losses.

Win out the rest of our home games is a must, and the Q3/Q4 road games. IF we do that - you can survive a loss at Davidson and at Dayton.

I still think Davidson sucks and we can win that game on the road. They have the athleticism of a MAC team and one of our strengths is locking down opposing guards (their strength). I'm not as confident with the two Dayton games.

We can afford a slip up if we knock off Dayton. I prefer a loss to a UMass on the road and Dayton win to a UMass win and Dayton loss.

[jaywin86]

Throwing this scenario out here from realtimerpi (RPI - i know i know out dated) they predict our remaining losses as @ Dayton by 17, vs. Dayton by 1, and @ Davidson by 3

My opinion if this holds true is we are in as an at-large bid at 22-8 but it will be a dayton play in game pending A10 tournament outcome. if we were to make it to the tourney finals i would say we make it out of the play in games and in to the "1st round"

** Bracket matrix just updated and we are the first team out (currently in 40 brackets) jumping 1 spot over Alabama**

[TruePoint]

KenPom up to 47 from 50. The loss didn’t hurt VCU much, as they slide from 43 to 45.