2019-20 A-10 Predictions

[theblueram]

I wish we were #20 in NET. That's for sure.

[Rhody83]

A10 OOC wins not as impressive per NET.

[Rhody83]

I’m with TP and co. Who cares if BC or Vandy or Wisconsin or anyone are “good” wins. They’re P5’s who’s ratings will go up based on their conference schedules alone.

This is the first year in at least the last 5 that the A10 is taking care of business in the OOC. I’m very happy if the Richmonds and Duquesnes suck and go to the bottom of the conference in February.

If teams like that are our basement, it will be a great year for the conference if 4-6 teams get separation.

Thoughts:
BC sucks and if they have a “Pitt like year” their ratings will not go up. This could happen to Vandy also but not as bad.
I would not put Richmond and Duquesne in the same group. Richmond looks good and their performance will help the A10.
I believe Duquesne is ranked high only because they are undefeated. Their top win is Indiana State. They have played zero Q1 games and one Q2 game. They haven’t played a road game yet. Duquesne SOS is 229th.

[TruePoint]

I wish we were #20 in NET. That's for sure.

I’d rather be #45 in March than #20 in December. That’s for sure.

[The Dude]

Richmond hasn't won against anyone good as far as I can tell. Vandy & Wisconsin aren't great thus far and their out of conference schedules look weak - mediocre at best in my opinion. I think we'll see what Richmond is all about when they play Alabama. We'll at least be able to see how they faired against a shared opponent.
I think URI and VCU are pretty much even at this point and could see either team finishing 2nd in the A 10 behind Dayton. I see the A 10 getting 3 bids in the NCAA Tournament this year.
We'll see how things play out. If Long, Toppin, & Martin continue to improve this team is going to be deep and dangerous by the end of conference play.

I agree with most of your points. If you say the Alabama game will give us a gauge on Richmond, dont you have to apply our common opponentS with VCU? VCU beat LSU by 3 at home and Rhody lost to LSU by 13 on a neutral court. VCU beat N Texas by 3 at home and Rhody beat N Texas by 13 on a neutral court. VCU’s two losses are by 3 points. I think right now VCU should be a little ahead of Rhody.

To me Jeff is the key to Rhody’s success much more than Long, Toppin or Martin . If Fatts, Cyril & Jeff all average 15 points or more, Rhody will be very tough.

The way I look at it is that the LSU game was basically an anomaly in my opinion. LSU shot roughtly 54% from the field and 40% from 3 pt respectively and they've only had maybe a couple other games with stats that are close with that. I mean LSU posted 55% & 38% from 3pt against the Northwestern State Demons. I'd like to think Rhody is better than the Demons and would perform a bit better in a rematch. Both Maryland (44% FG & 30% 3pt roughly) and West Virginia (44% FG & 31% 3pt roughly) didn't post anywhere near those numbers and they were away games for URI.
In regards to Jeff, no disagreement here. My point was only that in addition to our steady performers like Fatts, Langevine, & Dowtin, if Long, Toppin, & Martin start stepping up it's going to be a long tough night for any team playing against URI.

I'm pretty exciting to see what this team can do against Western Kentucky and beyond.

[Rhody83]

Rhody ranked 12, 15, 10, 19 & not ranked in one.

[SmartyBarrett]

One of the criterion for the 5th column is that the A-10 is not a mid-major.

[KevanBoyles]

One of the criterion for the 5th column is that the A-10 is not a mid-major.

What are we considered then? I know one of the college basketball mags ( Street and Smith?) List’s us as a major.

[Rhody83]

One of the criterion for the 5th column is that the A-10 is not a mid-major.

I didn’t see that. Now it makes more sense.

[R.Kelly150]

I would think that the designation of the A-10 as either major or mid-major shifts from year to year. This season the A-10 looks like a major player when it comes time to pick teams for the tourney thus a major designation...the past couple seasons though scream mid-major. However, if 4 of the 5 polls list the A-10 as mid-major, than I would say the the general opinion is that the A-10 is a mid major conference.

[PeterRamTime]

I would think that the designation of the A-10 as either major or mid-major shifts from year to year. This season the A-10 looks like a major player when it comes time to pick teams for the tourney thus a major designation...the past couple seasons though scream mid-major. However, if 4 of the 5 polls list the A-10 as mid-major, than I would say the the general opinion is that the A-10 is a mid major conference.

Never heard anyone call the A-10 a major conference.

Usually they say high-mid major.

[RF1]

The old RPI system is more favorable as it has URI at #53. Duquesne is #68, 48 places behind its NET rank. Interesting to look at the SOS variances between A-10 members.

RPI for games through 12-16-2019

[TruePoint]

I would think that the designation of the A-10 as either major or mid-major shifts from year to year. This season the A-10 looks like a major player when it comes time to pick teams for the tourney thus a major designation...the past couple seasons though scream mid-major. However, if 4 of the 5 polls list the A-10 as mid-major, than I would say the the general opinion is that the A-10 is a mid major conference.

Never heard anyone call the A-10 a major conference.

Usually they say high-mid major.

High Majors (P5 + NBE)
Majors (AAC, A10, MWC,WCC)
Mid Majors (CAA, MAC, MVC)
Low Majors (SWAC, NEC, MEAC)

[PeterRamTime]

I would think that the designation of the A-10 as either major or mid-major shifts from year to year. This season the A-10 looks like a major player when it comes time to pick teams for the tourney thus a major designation...the past couple seasons though scream mid-major. However, if 4 of the 5 polls list the A-10 as mid-major, than I would say the the general opinion is that the A-10 is a mid major conference.

Never heard anyone call the A-10 a major conference.

Usually they say high-mid major.

High Majors (P5 + NBE)
Majors (AAC, A10, MWC,WCC)
Mid Majors (CAA, MAC, MVC)
Low Majors (SWAC, NEC, MEAC)

I can agree with that.

Should be universal.

[TruePoint]

Not to belabor the point, but just two things I thought to add:

Obviously there is no hard and fast definition here as far as these categories go. There is no official designation.

You can kind of think about this in terms of NCAA bids. If your conference could get 7+ bids in a given year you’re a high major. If your conference usually gets at least multiple bids and maxes out at like 5-6 bids in its best possible year, you’re a major. If you’re an autobid league except in the rarest of circumstances, but your autobid team can be a 12 or 13 seed and pull an upset every half decade or so, you’re a mid major. If your autobid team is a 15/16 seed and essentially first round chum that’s more likely to get beat by 50 than pull an upset, you’re a low major.

[ramster]

We need that next game to be here more than ever.

[TruePoint]

Huh? This seems like a relevant discussion even if there were a game tonight, no?

[ace]

I would think that the designation of the A-10 as either major or mid-major shifts from year to year. This season the A-10 looks like a major player when it comes time to pick teams for the tourney thus a major designation...the past couple seasons though scream mid-major. However, if 4 of the 5 polls list the A-10 as mid-major, than I would say the the general opinion is that the A-10 is a mid major conference.

Never heard anyone call the A-10 a major conference.

Usually they say high-mid major.

High Majors (P5 + NBE)
Majors (AAC, A10, MWC,WCC)
Mid Majors (CAA, MAC, MVC)
Low Majors (SWAC, NEC, MEAC)

The A10 versus the American is an interesting comparison. It seems like they should always be at least 7th and 8th. Flawed as it is, both have 7 teams in the KenPom top 100 (one is UConn, if you’re looking ahead). Both conferences also have their share of dreck at the bottom, the problem is the A10 just has more. It’s impossible for a hundred different reasons, but the top half of those conference combined would be really strong.

[rambone 78]

I would love for the A10 to have 11 more or less quality programs like the BE.

But it's not likely to ever happen.

Mid major conferences with 14 teams like the A10 are going to have several anchors.

[ramster]

Of Note Biggest Surprises:

From A10:

• Surprises: #2 Dayton, #7 Duquesne

• Disappointments: #5 Davidson

From BE:

• Surprises: #1 Butler, #3 DePaul

• Disappointments: #2 Providence, #10 Seton Hall

Other of Interest:

• Disappointments: #4 Alabama

[Rhody83]

[TruePoint]

This is good for us. What matters at this point is the A10 getting the respect with 4 teams. If it ends up that way, I like our chances to be one of the four.

[Rhody83]

NET
Dayton 13
Duquesne 23
Richmond 25
SLU 62
VCU 63
Mason 71
URI 77
Davidson 99

Live RPI has WVU #1
A10
Dayton 16
Richmond 39
URI 46
VCU 94
Davidson 106

[reef]

Duquesne and Richmond going to drop a lot

I think it’s good Richmond lose we want to build a resume that’s 2nd best in conference behind Dayton

[RF1]

Regarding the NET rankings:

Duquesne went from #22 before their loss on Sunday to UAB to #66 afterward.

URI dropped three spots from #77 to #80 with its win over Western Kentucky (and likely losses of some of its opponents such as LSU factored in). The RPI continues to be much more favorable to Rhody ranking them at #48.

[Rhodymob05]

I'm telling ya, RPI is the way to go.

[phipsiGD'11]

Till we have a higher NET. Then we can go with that.

[Rhody83]

[TruePoint]

That’s a helpful graphic. Need WKU and Bama to have good conference seasons.

[Rhody83]

[thatRamBand]

[rhodyruckus]

Well if we relied on Jacob as much as Dayton relies on Obi, THEN I would be worried about a blowout.

[Rhody15]

Ryan Preston over Obi Toppin...

[ace]

[Ramulous]

Jacob's mom loved our recruiting process with both Obi and Jacob....too bad Hurley did not want to take a player who would have to sit his first year....In hindsight it would have been worth the wait....considering how Obi has turned out....

So far I am glad the family did not hold that against Cox and Rhode Island...

[Rhody83]

Jacob's mom loved our recruiting process with both Obi and Jacob....too bad Hurley did not want to take a player who would have to sit his first year....In hindsight it would have been worth the wait....considering how Obi has turned out....

So far I am glad the family did not hold that against Cox and Rhode Island...

I think Dan passed on Obi before he spent a year at Brewster and then he redshirted a year at Dayton.
He was a much different player both height and strength wise two year after he graduated high school (which was his Fr year playing for Dayton).

[ramster]

Good A10 article as we head into A10 Conference Play today
But no mention of URI at all.

https://bustingbrackets.com/2020/01/01/ ... son/amp/1/

[Rhody83]

Good A10 article as we head into A10 Conference Play today
But no mention of URI at all.

https://bustingbrackets.com/2020/01/01/ ... son/amp/1/

Why is it a good article? I don’t know if I had access to the entire article but the part I could read sucked.

[PeterRamTime]

Our sincerest apologies to the rest of the A-10 for blowing it.

Goodluck to Dayton and VCU in the tournament.

2 bid league.

[Roz]

Tough loss. I am a bit nervous about Dowtin. Anyone else?

[adam914]

Tough loss. I am a bit nervous about Dowtin. Anyone else?

Yeah, more than anything I just feel terrible for the guy. He deserved a better senior season than this.

[Rhody83]

Tough loss. I am a bit nervous about Dowtin. Anyone else?

Yeah, more than anything I just feel terrible for the guy. He deserved a better senior season than this.

It is his worst year. How does that happen. He was so much better his Soph and Jr years.

[luke]

dowtin has had stretches like this in previous seasons . I think he will start hitting his shots.

[Rhody Guy]

He was the lead guard his freshman and sophomore seasons. Last year Cox had Fatts take off the 1 spot and Dowtin became the off guard. Fatts adjusted by three end of the year and dowtin still hasn't. My perspective only

[rambone 78]

Due to Fatts height he has to play the one.

And with only 2 guards now there really is no other option, except for the rare times Fatts sits.

And Martin can't guard opponents' 2 guard, not quick enough.

As a team we are very limited when it comes to backcourt matchups.

And it shows, especially when they aren't making shots.

Our very limited depth might become even more of a problem later in the season when our backcourt starts to wear down.


Jeff playing out of position is not maximizing his talents, which is a shame really...for him and the team.

Losing Sheppard is turning out to be a killer for this season.

[Rhody Guy]

Fatts can absolutely operate as the 2 guard on offense and then on defense guard the opposing teams PG. There is no reason why that would not work.

[Rhody83]

Rhody ranked 2nd by A10 Talk writers. Close to a unanimous decision

https://www.a10talk.com/the-weekly-at-p ... alk-staff/

[TruePoint]

If URI can win tonight, and if the rest of the conference games this weekend go as expected, there could be a 5-team tie for third place with VCU, SLU, Duquesne, Richmond and Bonnies all at 6-3. Davidson would be a game behind at 5-4. That’s a lot of competition for the double byes, essentially 6 teams fighting for 2 spots. URI would be 2 games clear of that pack and still just 1 game behind Dayton for first. Would be great to get that cushion with respect to the bye coming down the stretch.

[ramster]

With entire 2nd half of the season to go. Halfway point.
Ton of basketball to go.