THE EARLY LINE URI VS PC

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 4 years ago

The first line is out and it is URI - 3 . That sounds like a smaller spread than I expected . I was thinking more like - 6 . Take URI and
give the 3 points . I'm thinking there is a possibility of a double digit win here if URI has a good game , but I would expect at least a 5-6 point win .
driving up from NJ in the morning for this one . don't disappoint us Fatts and co.

phipsiGD'11 · Unread post by **phipsiGD'11** » 4 years ago

Your site have an over/under yet?
Making the trip from Westchester myself. Haven't decided if I'll break my self-imposed rule on not betting on URI games...

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 4 years ago

The over/under is 141 at the moment .

Shinze88 · Unread post by **Shinze88** » 4 years ago

luke wrote: ↑4 years ago The first line is out and it is URI - 3 . That sounds like a smaller spread than I expected . I was thinking more like - 6 . Take URI and
give the 3 points . I'm thinking there is a possibility of a double digit win here if URI has a good game , but I would expect at least a 5-6 point win .
driving up from NJ in the morning for this one . don't disappoint us Fatts and co.

Not to be all doom and gloom, but I would not bet URI in this game at all. PC is a desperate team right now and a loss to URI could mean a .500 (or worse) non conf record. The BE is going to be brutal this year with no gimmes, if PC has hopes to salvage their season, they cant lose to URI. To me, URI has not proven it can play 2 good halves vs anyone, I also dont like the matchup in the paint we will be in big trouble if we have to play any stretch of this game with Cyril/Jermaine on the bench. If PC scouts correctly they will pound the ball inside and get Jermaine and Cyril in foul trouble . Alot needs to go right for us to win this game and yes PC has been awful, but they have as much talent as we do and depth will play a key role down the stretch. We are going to need a few players not named Fatts Russell to step up their game, if Cooley is smart (a big if) he'd shut down Fatts and force someone else to beat him.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

Pound the ball inside to who? Watson is half healthy. Khalif Young is average. And Diallo is an undersized 4 man who plays on the wing. The one variable is if PC gets hot from the outside -- if guys like Reeves, Pipkins, White are hitting at an above average clip then we could be in trouble. Short of that I don't see another scenario where they can control this game.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 4 years ago

Whatever happens on the court, our big advantage is the home crowd.

Get them involved early, and it will be a lot tougher for PC to come back if we can open up a decent lead.

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 4 years ago

The latest line is now URI - 21/2 . This might be the best opportunity URI will have to beat a spread . so far they are 3-5 against the spread.
PC has not shown any evidence that their talent level is equal to URI this season.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 4 years ago

I think PC's overall talent is very comparable to ours.

The issue seems to be that the offensive system [the flex] doesn't seem to fit them...they are way out of sync in the half court offense.

The key to me, is keep them in the half court and not allow many run outs...they are much better if they run...of course so are we...….

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 4 years ago

bigappleram wrote: ↑4 years ago Pound the ball inside to who? Watson is half healthy. Khalif Young is average. And Diallo is an undersized 4 man who plays on the wing. The one variable is if PC gets hot from the outside -- if guys like Reeves, Pipkins, White are hitting at an above average clip then we could be in trouble. Short of that I don't see another scenario where they can control this game.

I’m tough on Harris but man, if I had to cheer for Khalif Young for four years I’d think I’d rip my hair out every game. That kid stinks!

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

I’m not a Pipkins fan, never have been, he is very inconsistent. That said though, Pipkins can get inexplicably hot. I hope Friday night is not one of those nights. He got hit in games against PC in the past and that must be what Cooley saw in him.

Nwizzzy1 · Unread post by **Nwizzzy1** » 4 years ago

Yeah I see the spread at -2.5 Think rhody can cover that. Fatts has been on a role and I expect Down to have a big game. #GoRhody

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 4 years ago

Doors open at 5:30, pub full at 5:31.

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 4 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑4 years ago I’m not a Pipkins fan, never have been, he is very inconsistent. That said though, Pipkins can get inexplicably hot. I hope Friday night is not one of those nights. He got hit in games against PC in the past and that must be what Cooley saw in him.

Fatts will be right in his jock strap.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

My site has URI -2 on the overnight line

I like URI here I think by playing West Va LSU and Maryland on the road or neutral makes us battle tested and the seniors JD and Cyril will step up as well as the emerging Fatts

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 4 years ago

Looking at the line movement, I don't think bettors have a clear view one way or the other as to who to bet on. That is a lot of volatility in a short amount of time.

rhodyruckus · Unread post by **rhodyruckus** » 4 years ago

RhodyKyle wrote: ↑4 years ago Looking at the line movement, I don't think bettors have a clear view one way or the other as to who to bet on. That is a lot of volatility in a short amount of time.

I think early on the sharps were betting to put it between 2.5 and 3, but getting closer to gametime and seeing this on the ESPN2 schedule I think now novices are jumping in so they have skin in the game on a nationally televised matchup. The public sees the Big East team and KenPom rating over 30 points higher than URI (huh?) and puts their money on Providence.

URIGONZO · Unread post by **URIGONZO** » 4 years ago

My service was Rhody -2.5 and 142.5 when I went to bed last night.

Now it is a pick 'em which means they are taking pretty good money on Pee-Cee right now. I think there is value getting Rhody at a pick. The home-court in this series is a HUGE factor no matter who has more talent.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

It’s moved all the way to URI +1 now. Either something is up or crazy money is coming in on Providence. I would have taken URI up to about -6 based on everything that has gone on this season, so something is clearly up. Being home dogs against a team with losses against Long Beach, Penn, Charleston and Northwestern makes no sense except if there is some news about to break about player availability.

spookydog · Unread post by **spookydog** » 4 years ago

Now +1.5 & O/U 142

Section104 · Unread post by **Section104** » 4 years ago

I agree something seems odd here. Suddenly we’re hearing DJ is suiting up, plus an offer to a 2020 C and a major line shift against what would be considered the norm. Are we about to get some big news re mid-season departure. Pure speculation, but something isn’t adding up... Harris?

spookydog · Unread post by **spookydog** » 4 years ago

Bet % is 50/50 but Money % is 83% PC

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

I hate to fuel what could be pure speculation, but unless it was recorded at another time I thought it was very odd that Jermaine was posting IG stories from a club in PVD last night around midnight.

RhodyRamFan69 · Unread post by **RhodyRamFan69** » 4 years ago

This betting line isn't based in reality. PC hasn't played a top 100 team this year, let alone beat one and they're on the road?!?!?! I'm obviously biased here, but this is looking like an arbitrage opportunity. Do yourself a favor, take out a second mortgage and put it all on Rhody!!!

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

Some combination of system bettors that look for value bets based solely on Kenpom/Sagarin would explain the money differential partially, I guess. But I’d have thought all the public money would be on PC being the stronger name ID team from the better conference. If it’s true that 83% of the money is on PC but from only half the bets, then it’s not a case of public money.

Section104 · Unread post by **Section104** » 4 years ago

bigappleram wrote: ↑4 years ago I hate to fuel what could be pure speculation, but unless it was recorded at another time I thought it was very odd that Jermaine was posting IG stories from a club in PVD last night around midnight.

I saw that too. Since deleted.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

I am always leery of a spread that moves that much on the overnight line , something smells fishy

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 4 years ago

TruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago Some combination of system bettors that look for value bets based solely on Kenpom/Sagarin would explain the money differential partially, I guess. But I’d have thought all the public money would be on PC being the stronger name ID team from the better conference. If it’s true that 83% of the money is on PC but from only half the bets, then it’s not a case of public money.

It looks like a couple of big bettors steamed the line and caused books to freak out but I can't verify until outside of work as Action Network is blocked.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

I think taking URI for plus money is a no-brainer. I welcome them to move it again so I can put another one in for an even better payout.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 4 years ago

Agreed, obviously its a rivalry game and college basketball, so absolutely anything can happen...but I'm not sure how anyone could confidently take anything but URI and the points in this one.

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 4 years ago

I have been tracking KenPom against the spread since the beginning of the season. With a sample of 70 games tracked, using KP would have a bettor winning 62% of their bets which is massively high. It jumps to 63% when his predicted score is within 3 points of the vegas line (64 of the 69).

All of that to say KP has URI winning by 1 which, based on season performance, would give you a 63% chance of winning your bet.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

Sagarin has it the same way - about a point (the way Sagarin is presented is a little harder to pin down because he presents several different ways to calculate it). When those two are in agreement the history suggests that they have a very strong record.

phipsiGD'11 · Unread post by **phipsiGD'11** » 4 years ago

Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago
bigappleram wrote: ↑4 years ago I hate to fuel what could be pure speculation, but unless it was recorded at another time I thought it was very odd that Jermaine was posting IG stories from a club in PVD last night around midnight.
I saw that too. Since deleted.

Are we sure it was a club in Providence and not the bonvue basement? It was a Thursday night after all.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

Latest vegasinsider.......

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

One way to look at this is if this game were at the Dunk, would you like URI at +7.5? I would probably hit the moneyline at that number.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

-2 now

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

I see -2 also TP , I ended up getting down on URI

RIhoopz14 · Unread post by **RIhoopz14** » 4 years ago

Dana Tate suspended tn. I wonder if this is why the line bounced to PC -2

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

If Vegas moved the line 5 points over Dana Tate they are going to take a bath.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

Oh shoot I wonder if it’s cuz of his attitude??

URI_05 · Unread post by **URI_05** » 4 years ago

I guess we covered...

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 4 years ago

Who took the free money??

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

<———

Rhody74 · Unread post by **Rhody74** » 4 years ago

RhodyKyle wrote: ↑4 years ago Who took the free money??

I hope you guys who won wagers tonight tithe to the URI basketball program.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

Hell yeah line made no sense to go from URI -2.5 opening to PC -2

Great opportunity for URI bettors wish I went more

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 4 years ago

RhodyKyle wrote: ↑4 years ago Who took the free money??

Rhody ML and the under parlay was nice.

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 4 years ago

Predicted the possibility of a double digit win here and so it was.

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