2019-20 A-10 Predictions

[rhodylaw]

.......roll 21-9 around the cheeks and gums......

This is probably spot on. I’m hoping we surpass this, but if there was an o/u on wins this year I think it would 21.

[section(105)]

.......roll 21-9 around the cheeks and gums......

This is probably spot on. I’m hoping we surpass this, but if there was an o/u on wins this year I think it would 21.

.......just no ‘Stoney Brook’ type loss this season at home......A-10 road always tough, split the games with the partners.....take care of business with the bottom feeders.....beat someone(s) that we are the road dog......keep it close in the big OOC games......

[rambone 78]

Go 3-3 against the projected top 3 in conference......and about the same against the top OOC opponents.

That leaves a couple of hiccups most likely on the road....and adds up to about 21-9 before A10 tourney.

Do that, and we are at worst on the bubble come NCAA selection time.

[DC_Rams]

Every team has a wtf type of loss. Prepare for it, it’s coming.

[rambone 78]

That's to be expected, DC....just not multiple losses like last year. Or we hope.

[Rhody83]

.......roll 21-9 around the cheeks and gums......

This is probably spot on. I’m hoping we surpass this, but if there was an o/u on wins this year I think it would 21.

I will take the under side of that wager. 20 or under I win. 21 is a push. 22 or over you win. This is regular season only. Doesn’t include A10 Tournament or post season.

[rambone 78]

The talent is there to win 21 or 22 games imo.

Whether on not they do it, will depend on a lot of things.

Stay relatively injury free and eligible, for starters. That already has become problematic.

[NYGFan_Section208]

If those two guys aren't eligible...not a good look for the coach or admin...

[NYGFan_Section208]

If those two guys aren't eligible...not a good look for the coach or admin...

ETA: Although it will help narrow down the rotation...

[section(105)]

.......I thought we were gonna be deep.....up the rotation rather than narrow.....

[Rhody83]

[Rhody83]

2 out of 5 have Rhody in with the A10 getting 4 teams in.

[CTRamfan]

Thanks for the link.............interesting, they pick 3-4 A10 teams in the tournament.

[Rhody83]

Thanks for the link.............interesting, they pick 3-4 A10 teams in the tournament.

Not sure of the 5 reporters credentials.
One could be a person who posts frequently on this board and is a Rhody supporter.

They had another tweet on top 10 OOC schedules for mid majors and I think they did a calculation based on opponents’ W/L percentage from last year. That is just bogus. What does last year’s W/L have to do with this year’s?
VCU was 3rd and Rhody wasn’t in the top 10. Rhody has the toughest OOC schedule in the A10 this year.

[Rhody15]

Without both transfers we have little to no shot at making it.

[ace]

They have an all-conference guard and an all-conference big and the high likelihood of at least one third big-time scorer each game (Martin or Fatts, game by game). I think that gets them in the top four in the conference. After that, if they can do anything in the OOC, they have a chance to have a much better resume than Dayton, whose schedule is not nearly as good, if it comes to an at-large bid.

[theblueram]

For me it's all about the At-Large bid. If we are relying on winning the A10 tourney, might as well be in a 1 bid league.

[section(105)]

......for me, if some seem to imply the transfers or lack there of are a major factor in dancing or not are also saying the senior leadership coupled with experienced year two players are doubtful to get the job done......have at it folks......

[bigappleram]

IMO without the transfers it will require all 3 sophomores to have taken significant leaps. Tyrese will have to become a consistent 4th bucket getter night in and night out, and Dana and Jermaine will have to play their roles to the fullest. Can’t rely on FR or DJ in OOC. That’s suddenly not a deep team. Not only are the transfers talented, they bring game experience. A lot to lose if that’s the case.

[Rhody15]

Everyone has said For months we have a rock solid top 8 with the transfers, take
Both of them out and we are at 6, having to add in freshman to the rotation which is always a wild card.

Incredibly tough schedule with little to no depth Without Walker and Sheppard does not equal a tourney berth.

[section(105)]

......so, so, so the transfers make what, regular season difference of a couple of games?......I am not big on transfers at our level tipping the scales so much.......

[Rhodyram]

Walker has been with the team since last year and I assume has taken part in practices,etc... during that time. IMO not the same as a transfer who came in over the summer or for 1st semester. I anticipated his transition into games to be a smooth one. As mentioned in other posts, if he doesn’t get the waiver, he’d still be in after the 1st semester(unless I’m missing something).

[Rhody15]

......so, so, so the transfers make what, regular season difference of a couple of games?......I am not big on transfers at our level tipping the scales so much.......

Yea, Stan and Kuran didn’t tip the scales that much...


(I know these two aren’t on Stan and Kuran’s level.)

[RamStock]

They have an all-conference guard and an all-conference big and the high likelihood of at least one third big-time scorer each game (Martin or Fatts, game by game). I think that gets them in the top four in the conference. After that, if they can do anything in the OOC, they have a chance to have a much better resume than Dayton, whose schedule is not nearly as good, if it comes to an at-large bid.

What is so different about last years team except they have a much harder schedule both in conference and out of conference? I get we could say that Martin, Tate and Harris will be much improved, but isn’t that the case for all these teams in the A-10 and nationally. The hope of getting some new players with different skill set to combined with the returning players provided some excitement and hope as well as keeping players rested and depth against injuries. I guess we will see what happens. Maybe losing these guys won’t be as big a factor as many of us think, but to turn our heads and say we will go 22-8 seems far fetched.

[TruePoint]

For some perspective here, worst-case with respect to Walker is that he would miss the first part of the season. Which would matter, but it’s not like the risk here is not having him at all. Shepard’s situation is more opaque, and honestly I’m not sure that we can assume anything.

[rambone 78]

Losing Walker until late December and not having Sheppard at all, will imo cost us a couple of games.

[Rhody83]

They have an all-conference guard and an all-conference big and the high likelihood of at least one third big-time scorer each game (Martin or Fatts, game by game). I think that gets them in the top four in the conference. After that, if they can do anything in the OOC, they have a chance to have a much better resume than Dayton, whose schedule is not nearly as good, if it comes to an at-large bid.

What is so different about last years team except they have a much harder schedule both in conference and out of conference? I get we could say that Martin, Tate and Harris will be much improved, but isn’t that the case for all these teams in the A-10 and nationally. The hope of getting some new players with different skill set to combined with the returning players provided some excitement and hope as well as keeping players rested and depth against injuries. I guess we will see what happens. Maybe losing these guys won’t be as big a factor as many of us think, but to turn our heads and say we will go 22-8 seems far fetched.

I think if URI loses Walker for OOC and Sheppard for the year it will hurt and cost wins.
RamStock, regarding your comment/question about the improvement beIng the case for all the teams. The difference is that URI returns all of its starters and arguably is top 6 players and the biggest jump in improvement tends to be from Fr to Soph year. You could add that Harris was injured all year and Martin was slowed by a knee injury the second half of the year.

[ace]

They have an all-conference guard and an all-conference big and the high likelihood of at least one third big-time scorer each game (Martin or Fatts, game by game). I think that gets them in the top four in the conference. After that, if they can do anything in the OOC, they have a chance to have a much better resume than Dayton, whose schedule is not nearly as good, if it comes to an at-large bid.

What is so different about last years team except they have a much harder schedule both in conference and out of conference? I get we could say that Martin, Tate and Harris will be much improved, but isn’t that the case for all these teams in the A-10 and nationally. The hope of getting some new players with different skill set to combined with the returning players provided some excitement and hope as well as keeping players rested and depth against injuries. I guess we will see what happens. Maybe losing these guys won’t be as big a factor as many of us think, but to turn our heads and say we will go 22-8 seems far fetched.

I never predicted a specific record. In conference, I feel like they need to pick up at least 3 conference wins, maybe 4, over last season to get in the top 4, with that honestly probably being fourth. It depends on if the conference gets muddled in the middle or if there are clear divisions between good and bad teams.

I had concerns last year about Fatts moving into a different role, and they ended up being valid. I think he and Cox have adjusted to each other, and Fatts better understands his role. He may require an “adjustment” over the season, but he’s starting from a good place. I also fully believe in Tyrese Martin.

They will have Walker- my guess would be all season but worst case scenario still has him back for every conference game and some of late December. Regardless of the rulings, teams have to roll with what they have (Dave and Dan may commiserate about having only 9/10 scholarship players but no one else cares or feels bad for you). I also don’t underestimate the senior leadership of Dowtin and Langevine in that.

I think Cox will be better. No matter how great an assistant a guy is or how experienced he is in the game, moving up to lead the whole thing is always a bit of an adjustment and a learning experience. He’s said as much, before anyone (again) gets upset about that.

But mainly, for me, October is when I’m most optimistic (only a few hours left!), and I feel good about this group, so who knows- maybe none of this comes to fruition. Enjoy the ride!

[NYGFan_Section208]

Losing Walker until late December and not having Sheppard at all, will imo cost us a couple of games.

I'm at the window with... 2 players, 4 semesters... 1 semester played by one player.
Hopefully, it's better, but....no real reason (or enough public info) to expect it?

[section(105)]

.......couple of games swirling around the drain because of Walker/Sheppard.......Doubt it, Coach Cox in year two, senior leadership, growth of the sophs, next man up mentality.......is worth a couple of games.......sounds like a push for me......also saw where we are at 150-1 to win NCAA.....

[ramster]

All 353 Teams Ranked by Sports Illustrated....

URI Ranked #82, 4th in A10

Maryland Ranked #7


https://www.si.com/college/2019/11/01/n ... e-kentucky

[Rhody83]

[Rhody83]

[RF1]

[TruePoint]

As my prediction contest entry implies, I predict a rough OOC due to strength of schedule and limited depth, but foresee URI rallying during conference play, finishing in the top-2 in a tight race with VCU and going deep in the conference tournament. Under that scenario, I’d expect URI to enter A10 play well outside the field and then fight its way onto the bubble over the course of league play. Ultimately, whether they’re in or not will depend a lot on how the rest of the field looks, how the OOC opponents do in their leagues, and how much “credit” we will get for playing the early part of the season shorthanded (or, said another way, how much the committee will forgive a mediocre record against good competition playing without a 3rd big if Walker makes a clear difference when he gets back).

[Rhody83]

As my prediction contest entry implies, I predict a rough OOC due to strength of schedule and limited depth, but foresee URI rallying during conference play, finishing in the top-2 in a tight race with VCU and going deep in the conference tournament. Under that scenario, I’d expect URI to enter A10 play well outside the field and then fight its way onto the bubble over the course of league play. Ultimately, whether they’re in or not will depend a lot on how the rest of the field looks, how the OOC opponents do in their leagues, and how much “credit” we will get for playing the early part of the season shorthanded (or, said another way, how much the committee will forgive a mediocre record against good competition playing without a 3rd big if Walker makes a clear difference when he gets back).

Confused by two points in your prediction. You have URI finishing 2nd or 1st (top 2) in the A10 and being well outside the field (makes no sense to me). It seems the media consensus is the A10 is going to be strong this year and should get three bids.

You predict a rough OCC due partially to limited depth but I believe you stated in the Walker thread you don’t see the loss of Walker and Sheppard costing URI any games.

[Rhody83]

Davidson end up winning 102-94. Nice D.

[TruePoint]

As my prediction contest entry implies, I predict a rough OOC due to strength of schedule and limited depth, but foresee URI rallying during conference play, finishing in the top-2 in a tight race with VCU and going deep in the conference tournament. Under that scenario, I’d expect URI to enter A10 play well outside the field and then fight its way onto the bubble over the course of league play. Ultimately, whether they’re in or not will depend a lot on how the rest of the field looks, how the OOC opponents do in their leagues, and how much “credit” we will get for playing the early part of the season shorthanded (or, said another way, how much the committee will forgive a mediocre record against good competition playing without a 3rd big if Walker makes a clear difference when he gets back).

Confused by two points in your prediction. You have URI finishing 2nd or 1st (top 2) in the A10 and being well outside the field (makes no sense to me). It seems the media consensus is the A10 is going to be strong this year and should get three bids.

You predict a rough OCC due partially to limited depth but I believe you stated in the Walker thread you don’t see the loss of Walker and Sheppard costing URI any games.

Yeah...I said that I think URI will enter A10 play well outside the field (my prediction in the contest was 6-6 OOC because I had to pick a number, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it was slightly better than that), and then I can see them playing themselves back onto the bubble with a 14-4ish league performance, which I also see as being in the mix for winning the league in the regular season. (See bolded, above.)

As far as Walker, without going back and finding that post I recall saying that the team cannot afford to dwell on it because the season is going to happen no matter who is available to play, and that losing Walker for the beginning of the year doesn’t necessarily spell doom for the entire campaign. I don’t recall saying that it wouldn’t cost any games. I think my thoughts on the Walker/Shepard situation and the season are related and consistent: losing them both will make a tough OOC tougher, but ultimately after 30+ games I still think this could be a tournament team if enough things break the right way. Obviously the task is harder without those guys, but it didn’t become impossible.

I feel like my comments on this team throughout the offseason and in the run-up to the season have been pretty consistent, or at least my thinking about the team seems consistent to me so if my comments don’t come across that way it’s likely an issue with how I’ve expressed them here. If you are thinking of specific things I’ve said that you think are particularly confusing, I’m happy to try to clarify.

[SandorClegane]

Its important to acknowledge that predictions are based solely off last years stats/results. Therefore if you have a guy who makes 1st team A10 last year, they almost NEVER drop him down for next years predictions. Jeff has a good chance to make 1st team, so does Fatts. But Rhody has to be at the top of the A10 to knock some of the other big name players off the list.

Fatts has no chance of making first team as a Jr with the Guards listed on the first & second team predictions.

Rhody83...just posting this to bust your chops. Love ya man!
Go Fatts.

[UCH21377]

Let’s hope the A10 continues to perform well OOCwhich will help a lot come tourney selection time. 4th place may even be good enough

[Rhody83]

Its important to acknowledge that predictions are based solely off last years stats/results. Therefore if you have a guy who makes 1st team A10 last year, they almost NEVER drop him down for next years predictions. Jeff has a good chance to make 1st team, so does Fatts. But Rhody has to be at the top of the A10 to knock some of the other big name players off the list.

Fatts has no chance of making first team as a Jr with the Guards listed on the first & second team predictions.

Rhody83...just posting this to bust your chops. Love ya man!
Go Fatts.

Fatts has stepped up big time. I wasn’t expecting this much of a leap. He is still facing big time competitors who are Sr. On top of that the other top Guards where on A10 all conference teams last year. It’s hard to break that chain.
I was expecting Rhody Srs to step up and they haven’t. Big let down so far. Rhody needs big performances from Fatts, Jeff & Cyril to beat WV and PC.

[bkoeppen]

Let’s hope the A10 continues to perform well OOCwhich will help a lot come tourney selection time. 4th place may even be good enough

A-10 results I did not think I would be saying almost one month into the season:

- 59-27 overall record, or .686 winning percentage
- Victories over LSU, Alabama, VT, Wisconsin, UConn, Georgia, and other tough mid-majors, with some of them being blow outs
- Davidson is one of only 3 losing teams so far
- VCU might not be the best team in the league (Dayton)
- Richmond, Duquesne and GM are a combined 18-2

Barring a collective OOC collapse in the next 30 days A-10 is well positioned to get 4 teams in.

[Blue Man]

Let’s hope the A10 continues to perform well OOCwhich will help a lot come tourney selection time. 4th place may even be good enough

A-10 results I did not think I would be saying almost one month into the season:

- 59-27 overall record, or .686 winning percentage
- Victories over LSU, Alabama, VT, Wisconsin, UConn, Georgia, and other tough mid-majors, with some of them being blow outs
- Davidson is one of only 3 losing teams so far
- VCU might not be the best team in the league (Dayton)
- Richmond, Duquesne and GM are a combined 18-2

Barring a collective OOC collapse in the next 30 days A-10 is well positioned to get 4 teams in.

I think even more important than that is the fact that the P5 wins have come from the top to bottom of the league - not just 1 or 2 teams.

George Mason - Nebraska
Dayton - Virginia Tech, Georgia
Richmond - Wisconsin, Vanderbilt
Bonnies - Rutgers
URI - Alabama
VCU - LSU
St. Joes - UConn

That helps keep landmines off our schedule - which is just as important as making sure we have opportunities for good wins.

[PeterRamTime]

Let’s hope the A10 continues to perform well OOCwhich will help a lot come tourney selection time. 4th place may even be good enough

A-10 results I did not think I would be saying almost one month into the season:

- 59-27 overall record, or .686 winning percentage
- Victories over LSU, Alabama, VT, Wisconsin, UConn, Georgia, and other tough mid-majors, with some of them being blow outs
- Davidson is one of only 3 losing teams so far
- VCU might not be the best team in the league (Dayton)
- Richmond, Duquesne and GM are a combined 18-2

Barring a collective OOC collapse in the next 30 days A-10 is well positioned to get 4 teams in.

I think even more important than that is the fact that the P5 wins have come from the top to bottom of the league - not just 1 or 2 teams.

George Mason - Nebraska
Dayton - Virginia Tech, Georgia
Richmond - Wisconsin, Vanderbilt
Bonnies - Rutgers
URI - Alabama
VCU - LSU
St. Joes - UConn

That helps keep landmines off our schedule - which is just as important as making sure we have opportunities for good wins.

Exactly!

There wont be as many sub 200 teams this year.

Maybe Fordham, La Salle and GW.

But even they are picking up some wins.

SLU also blowing out BC right now so add that ACC win.

The conference needs Davidson to step it up like now.

[TruePoint]

The key is where teams are entering conference play. At that point all the movement is internal within the league. Like, if a team comes into A10 play at #187 and goes 0-18, they’ll end the year around #300 but the benefit of those 18 wins will all be contained within the conference.

[Roz]

The A10 is ranked 5th conference in rpi....and before you say it I know rpi isnt as important anymore

[Roz]

The west virginia game is going to really show where we are as a team. Like last year they are not a good shooting team and that can be a great win for us

[ramster]

The A10 is ranked 5th conference in rpi....and before you say it I know rpi isnt as important anymore

Dayton is Ranked #6 in RPI. And that is before today’s vs Kansas Championship Game in Maui
...and before you say it I know rpi isnt as important anymore

[luke]

Has anybody been watching Dayton lately ? They have shocked me with how good they are . They look way better than VCU right now . They beat Georgia and after Virginia Tech beat Michigan St. Dayton beat them by 27. Today Dayton lost to Kansas in OT. .

[Rhodymob05]

Can’t wait to get the Flyers at the Ryan.