2017-18 Bracketology

[ace]

I obviously failed to take into account some of the mental aspects of URI from a team and coaching perspective.

K

[PeterRamTime]

Hi Everyone,

I wanted to apologize for my nutso prediction of URI being in the Final4 or winning the National Championship. It just goes to show you can be a college hoops junkie like me and have it all wrong on who the best teams in the country are. I obviously failed to take into account some of the mental aspects of URI from a team and coaching perspective.

Definitely a punch in the gut to my ego! Sorry for being so unrealistic.

It's good to have high predictions and low...a nice wide range
Anything is (still) possible!

Haha I deserve to be laughed at! Sad thing is The College Hoops Junky believed it. I suck! LOL

I still love college hoops but will stop with predictions which was fun while it lasted.

Our very own junkhead

[RhowdyRam02]

For those trashing kenpom, what do you think is a better rating system and why?

[URI2006_Andy]

For those trashing kenpom, what do you think is a better rating system and why?

I think kenpom is one of the best systems for predicting future results and I’d give it significant weight for purposes of predicting who will win a particular game. But I think RPI is a better system (although it has its limitations) for the committee to use.

1. RPI doesn’t have a preaseason ranking factored into its formula like KenPom does. (Meaning every team starts the season on equal footing)

2. RPI rewards wins and penalizes losses which is the point of playing the game.

3. RPI doesn’t incentivize running up the score.

[RhowdyRam02]

As far as I know, the preseason component of kenpom washes out sometime in January.

[URI2006_Andy]

I think having a proprietary formula that makes it hard to tell exactly how the preseason rankings factor into it is another reason for the committee to use RPI.

If next season URI has a KenPom of 15 and an RPI of 47, I’ll probably change my mind on which rating system the committee should use.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Hi Everyone,

I wanted to apologize for my nutso prediction of URI being in the Final4 or winning the National Championship. It just goes to show you can be a college hoops junkie like me and have it all wrong on who the best teams in the country are. I obviously failed to take into account some of the mental aspects of URI from a team and coaching perspective.

Definitely a punch in the gut to my ego! Sorry for being so unrealistic.

It's good to have high predictions and low...a nice wide range
Anything is (still) possible!

Haha I deserve to be laughed at! Sad thing is The College Hoops Junky believed it. I suck! LOL

I still love college hoops but will stop with predictions which was fun while it lasted.

Bud...I have no 'room to', nor was I laughing at you at all. I still think any of a huge range of outcomes is possible. Junky on, dude!

[Bigsnoop]

I prefer the RPI over KenPom because it's results based, while KenPom is predictive. The point of the committee is to pick the best teams based on results, not predictions. Also, as mentioned, there is no incentive to run up the score with RPI.

[rjsuperfly66]

I prefer the RPI over KenPom because it's results based, while KenPom is predictive. The point of the committee is to pick the best teams based on results, not predictions. Also, as mentioned, there is no incentive to run up the score with RPI.

KenPom is very popular in the gambling community due to it's predictive nature, but Pomeroy himself acknowledges the flaws in his system that don't make it a system that is right as a tournament metric in it's current state.

The score running up argument to me always seems like something people say to justify why they dislike the metric, but while it might be a slight flaw, the reality is that all teams play on the same playing field. Also it's impossible to know the line/time of demarcation where a team just gives up.

Take URI in this case -- KenPom now sucks because of the margin of defeat, but has URI not tried to run anyone up this year? They didn't beat the will out of any opponents? URI vs Dayton last week -- URI is up 26 points with 5 minutes left -- EC still out there scoring, Garrett's still out there, Terrell's still out there making 3's, etc.

Overall, the point is that the things that happen that might have hurt URI in the metrics, is it possible it also helped them at times? I think people are totally overstating the impact of margin in dismissing KenPom.

[Da_Process_Survivor]

For those trashing kenpom, what do you think is a better rating system and why?

the biggest issue is Kenpom as a whole starts with a flawed premise. Weight and credit is given for prior years performances. A true neutral metric must start with everyone at zero each year. Otherwise you are entering a bias into the results.

the other major issue is you cant use margin of victory in college basketball.

Teams pull starters and ease up when they're up big late in games. Countless games that are really 20-30pt games end up as 10-15 point games.

It also doesn't account for injuries. There is a big difference between a banged up team beating someone by 4 and the healthy version winning by 15. Every team has injuries during the year and has guys out for a few games or playing through things.

RPI is about as fair as you can get, even with its flaws.

Who did you beat, and who else have they beaten/lost to
Who beat you, and who else have they beaten/lost to

yeah, it gets messy, but the messiness of how it connects so many teams together is it's strength.

[rhodysurf]

I prefer the RPI over KenPom because it's results based, while KenPom is predictive. The point of the committee is to pick the best teams based on results, not predictions. Also, as mentioned, there is no incentive to run up the score with RPI.

KenPom is very popular in the gambling community due to it's predictive nature, but Pomeroy himself acknowledges the flaws in his system that don't make it a system that is right as a tournament metric in it's current state.

The score running up argument to me always seems like something people say to justify why they dislike the metric, but while it might be a slight flaw, the reality is that all teams play on the same playing field. Also it's impossible to know the line/time of demarcation where a team just gives up.

Take URI in this case -- KenPom now sucks because of the margin of defeat, but has URI not tried to run anyone up this year? They didn't beat the will out of any opponents? URI vs Dayton last week -- URI is up 26 points with 5 minutes left -- EC still out there scoring, Garrett's still out there, Terrell's still out there making 3's, etc.

Overall, the point is that the things that happen that might have hurt URI in the metrics, is it possible it also helped them at times? I think people are totally overstating the impact of margin in dismissing KenPom.

The Dayton game was the only game they ran up the score really bad. All the other big wins they won by like 10-20 and played a deep bench.

I actually think KenPom is awesome.. I just think its not the best metric to determine those in the field of 64 obviously

[TruePoint]

For those trashing kenpom, what do you think is a better rating system and why?

Literally everything is better than Kenpom. I've always hated it. Anything that measures efficiency rather than straight W/L is bad. How you win is irrelevant. Kenpom takes the opposite approach: whether you win or not is irrelevant. So other than missing the entire point of sports, it's pretty great I guess.

[Da_Process_Survivor]

I prefer the RPI over KenPom because it's results based, while KenPom is predictive. The point of the committee is to pick the best teams based on results, not predictions. Also, as mentioned, there is no incentive to run up the score with RPI.

KenPom is very popular in the gambling community due to it's predictive nature, but Pomeroy himself acknowledges the flaws in his system that don't make it a system that is right as a tournament metric in it's current state.

The score running up argument to me always seems like something people say to justify why they dislike the metric, but while it might be a slight flaw, the reality is that all teams play on the same playing field. Also it's impossible to know the line/time of demarcation where a team just gives up.

Take URI in this case -- KenPom now sucks because of the margin of defeat, but has URI not tried to run anyone up this year? They didn't beat the will out of any opponents? URI vs Dayton last week -- URI is up 26 points with 5 minutes left -- EC still out there scoring, Garrett's still out there, Terrell's still out there making 3's, etc.

Overall, the point is that the things that happen that might have hurt URI in the metrics, is it possible it also helped them at times? I think people are totally overstating the impact of margin in dismissing KenPom.

Dayton was the exception, not the rule for this team.

Also the only reason they were out there that late was Dan put all the seniors in so that he could give them a 'walk off the court together' moment. it's why he had Garrett intentionally foul

[rambone 78]

Actually I think Dan has not run up the score much this season....there have been several games where he pulled the starters early enough where the opponents cut into the lead by 5 to 8 points or so.

I'm sure Dan wasn't thinking of our Kenpom rating when he did that lol.....

Martelli didn't pull his starters until there was less than 2 minutes left....he should have at the last TV timeout a couple of minutes earlier.

[rjsuperfly66]

The score running up argument to me always seems like something people say to justify why they dislike the metric, but while it might be a slight flaw, the reality is that all teams play on the same playing field. Also it's impossible to know the line/time of demarcation where a team just gives up.

Dayton was the exception, not the rule for this team.

My overall point wasn't to make it seem like URI went out there trying to beat the bag out of it's opponents, but it was an opposing example to what happened during the St. Joe's game. Point is, the sport is a 40 minute game. KenPom is a metric that measures a teams 40 minute output. It's a statistical model, it can't determine will, effort, etc. If someone beats the number #1 team in the country by 45 points, they should be rewarded as such, not told "Well they quit when they were down 17 so that's all you get credit for." How does anybody other than the players in question know what type of effort was being put in?

[steviep123]

I was gonna try it too if I get a minute today. I would also think the multiplier would invert for losses - x1.25 at Home, .75 road.

For example the St Joe’s loss would’ve cost us 196.25 points (157 rpi ranking x 1.25 for Home loss).

taking a rough stab at it, i get 3,480 points for us and 2,866.25 for PC

for comparison, Gonzaga comes in at 4,320

method summarized:

win = (352 - RPI rank) * factor (.75 at home, 1 neutral, 1.25 road)
loss = RPI rank * factor (-1.25 at home, -1 neutral, -.75 road)

That seems about right compared to us/PC - Zags benefit in that scenario from having played 31 games to our (eventual) 29.

I guess the downfall here is that you'd get rewarded for playing more games even if they're against crap opponents, but nothing is perfect.

I think I like this method better than "quadrants" though, because it doesn't simply reward P5 teams for playing in a P5 conference.

EDIT

Did the math and got 3446.50 for us.

(2623 win points at home x .75 = 1967.25, + 325 neutral win points + 1137 road win points x 1.25) = 1421.25 - 267 (69.75 loss points road + 1 neutral + 196.25 home) = 3446.50

I came into this post thinking I had a lot more energy to do more teams but I don't, and I graduated with a 2.38 and had to take some math courses post-grad to get into business school so take that for what it's worth lol.

Point is I think there's merit to this method.

"It was my understanding that there would be no math..."

[spar]

Hi Everyone,

I wanted to apologize for my nutso prediction of URI being in the Final4 or winning the National Championship. It just goes to show you can be a college hoops junkie like me and have it all wrong on who the best teams in the country are. I obviously failed to take into account some of the mental aspects of URI from a team and coaching perspective.

Definitely a punch in the gut to my ego! Sorry for being so unrealistic.

This is just strange to me. Why are you on here apologizing for a prediction? Are you trying to "save face", because you think our team is not very good now after the Joe's game? Are you concerned your Internet ego is going to take a beating if URI makes an early exit in the tourney? I just don't get this post. Kind of irks me to be honest. Sounds like you are pretty confident in your new prediction of us not doing well in the tourney. This makes me want for this team to do well that much more now, so that people like you who have now written the team off after one bad game can go stick it.

[RhowdyRam02]

Latest from Bracketville:

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

We're a 6 seed in Nashville taking on the winner of Kansas State and Washington

St. Bonaventure is a 9

Virginia is the overall number 1
Nevada is a 7
Seton Hall is an 8
Providence is a 10 and has the 4th to last bye
Alabama is a 12 and has the last bye
Charleston is a 14
UNC-Asheville is a 15
Florida Gulf Coast is a 16

[rhodylaw]

I prefer the RPI over KenPom because it's results based, while KenPom is predictive. The point of the committee is to pick the best teams based on results, not predictions. Also, as mentioned, there is no incentive to run up the score with RPI.

KenPom is very popular in the gambling community due to it's predictive nature, but Pomeroy himself acknowledges the flaws in his system that don't make it a system that is right as a tournament metric in it's current state.

The score running up argument to me always seems like something people say to justify why they dislike the metric, but while it might be a slight flaw, the reality is that all teams play on the same playing field. Also it's impossible to know the line/time of demarcation where a team just gives up.

Take URI in this case -- KenPom now sucks because of the margin of defeat, but has URI not tried to run anyone up this year? They didn't beat the will out of any opponents? URI vs Dayton last week -- URI is up 26 points with 5 minutes left -- EC still out there scoring, Garrett's still out there, Terrell's still out there making 3's, etc.

Overall, the point is that the things that happen that might have hurt URI in the metrics, is it possible it also helped them at times? I think people are totally overstating the impact of margin in dismissing KenPom.

This is my problem with Kenpom - Did Hurley leave those guys in to run up the score to increase the Kenpom? AP voters look at Kenpim and as I understand it is included in the team sheets this year with other predictive metrics. Were there games earlier in the year he could have kept guys in to run up the score more? It's silly, when you have a team beaten 30 minutes into the game you should not be penalized for sending in the second string and getting those guys some PT but that is what the predictive measurements take into account. I like Kenpom for individual games but RPI is still the better tool for ranking.

I also have an issue with the new Quandrant system. 1-30 at home is not the same as 1-75 on the road. That gap is too big. I think a Q1 win should be top 15 home, top 25 neutral, top 35 road. Those are elite level wins. Everything else is a second tier win. Under this system, Rhody may not have a single Q1 win this year. But I don't think being a road win at Marquette or Kansas State is the same as beating Villanova or Virginia or even Rhode Island.

[rjsuperfly66]

This is my problem with Kenpom - Did Hurley leave those guys in to run up the score to increase the Kenpom? AP voters look at Kenpim and as I understand it is included in the team sheets this year with other predictive metrics. Were there games earlier in the year he could have kept guys in to run up the score more? It's silly, when you have a team beaten 30 minutes into the game you should not be penalized for sending in the second string and getting those guys some PT but that is what the predictive measurements take into account. I like Kenpom for individual games but RPI is still the better tool for ranking.

Well, this is what KenPom would tell you:

1st game Road Road
margin W-L Win%
-41 to -50 0-3 0.0
-40 to -31 3-58 4.9
-30 to -21 39-265 12.8
-20 to -11 250-1162 17.7
-10 to -1 814-2326 25.9
1 to 10 1518-2415 38.6
11 to 20 1311-1224 51.7
21 to 30 473-311 60.3
31 to 40 151-54 73.7
41+ 32-5 86.5

This was KenPom's study from 2013, where he used 10 years worth of data to determine how a team performed in a home game to their road production in a rematch situation. As you can see, the better the results at home, the better the results on the road.

Ken Pom would tell you: "The takeaway here is that if you are interested in evaluating a team’s ability, simply looking at their record puts you at a disadvantage. Scoring margin matters. This is not to say than an 80-point win over Grambling is more predictive than a 60-point win, but in games involving relatively equal competition, scoring margin is useful – even big margins. At least, it usually matters.

There are exceptions, but identifying them is a challenge and I’m guessing there are many fewer exceptions than people want to believe. The fan of every team that is underrated by a scoring-margin method will claim that this is because their coach is more compassionate than his competitors and empties the bench much earlier in the game than his ruthless colleagues. In reality, though, there isn’t much difference in coaching attitudes.

Maybe the nice coaches empty the bench with two minutes to go and the meanies play their rotation guys to the end. That still leaves a majority of the game where relatively normal conditions exist. No doubt teams are trying harder in a close game than in a 20-point game, but even in the latter the participants are still trying. And I think that’s why scoring margin matters even at margins where the game contains significant stretches of garbage time."

Despite that opinion in 2013, KenPom did make some tweaks entering 2014:

"Back before anybody knew about my work, I would do ratings of all kinds of sports. You haven’t lived until you’ve attempted to do ratings for the Western Hockey League. In those days, I had a method to give variable weight to games in my otherwise elementary least squares system. The weight was based on three ingredients – how close the game was expected to be, how close the game actually was, and when the game was played.

The result is that games perceived by the system as big upsets get the most weight, while the influence of expected lopsided wins is minimized. For instance, last season’s non-conference games involving Grambling would be largely ignored. Whether a team beat the Tigers by 30 or 60 would make little difference in its rating."

Just some FYI on his system.

[rhodysurf]

This is my problem with Kenpom - Did Hurley leave those guys in to run up the score to increase the Kenpom? AP voters look at Kenpim and as I understand it is included in the team sheets this year with other predictive metrics. Were there games earlier in the year he could have kept guys in to run up the score more? It's silly, when you have a team beaten 30 minutes into the game you should not be penalized for sending in the second string and getting those guys some PT but that is what the predictive measurements take into account. I like Kenpom for individual games but RPI is still the better tool for ranking.

Ken Pom would tell you: "The takeaway here is that if you are interested in evaluating a team’s ability, simply looking at their record puts you at a disadvantage. Scoring margin matters. This is not to say than an 80-point win over Grambling is more predictive than a 60-point win, but in games involving relatively equal competition, scoring margin is useful – even big margins. At least, it usually matters.

There are exceptions, but identifying them is a challenge and I’m guessing there are many fewer exceptions than people want to believe. The fan of every team that is underrated by a scoring-margin method will claim that this is because their coach is more compassionate than his competitors and empties the bench much earlier in the game than his ruthless colleagues. In reality, though, there isn’t much difference in coaching attitudes.

For sure it is the best system that we have for evaluating a teams ability at the moment.

The problem is that ability shouldnt determine the teams in the tournament IMO, results should.

[RAM67]

What happens near the end of the year( Within conference), when team A, who is out of the playoffs but is beating team B, who is a bubble team, by a wide margin. Does coach A take one for the league and pull his starters early? Scoring margin for the sake of rankings leaves too much room for manipulation one way or another.

[rjsuperfly66]

KenPom would be the first one to admit to you that his system is flawed for purely ranking teams who get in the tournament and that his formula would have to be tweaked in order to become a tournament metric. In his own words:

"To my knowledge, there is no tournament in any sport that seeds on something other than record. Maryland can win all of the one-point games it wants and the Big Ten is not going to take away its regular-season title if it has the best record. Likewise, Texas A&M’s controversial victory over Georgia on Saturday counts just as much as Kentucky’s 42-point win over A&M earlier in the season.

The reason this is so is that the outcome of the game has to matter. This is why we watch the game. Make the selection process, and thus the games, purely about points scored and allowed and the games become less entertaining. There is no special purpose to having one more point than your opponent. No point in managing foul trouble. No point in hoisting threes in the final minute to catch up. The contest becomes one of points accumulation. There’s a reason televised Scrabble has never hit it big.

However, the reason margin-of-victory works in identifying the best teams is because the goal is to win the game. Teams are happy with a one-point win after the fact, but they’d rather not have the game come down to the final possession while its occurring. There’s already incentive to run up the score (to an extent) in order to avoid the game coming down to a team’s players not being able to count off 5.6 seconds in their heads so they know when to shoot.

I’d allow there could be a small role for predictive measures, though. A dominant team from a lesser conference is challenging to evaluate because it has fewer chances late in the season to pick up quality victories that their power-conference brethren. Whether it was Wichita State or Stephen F. Austin last season, both were playing their best basketball when their schedule was a desert for nutrient-rich quality opponents. While Wisconsin turned it around when quality opponents were lined up one of after the other. We can throw our hands up and accept the inequity in that5 or we can use predictive measures to bridge the information gap and acknowledge that both the Shockers and Lumberjacks were more likely than not to succeed against tougher competition."

This entire blog written after his meeting at the NCAA HQ last season:

https://kenpom.com/blog/that-meeting-at-the-ncaa-hq/

[josephski]

This is my problem with Kenpom - Did Hurley leave those guys in to run up the score to increase the Kenpom? AP voters look at Kenpim and as I understand it is included in the team sheets this year with other predictive metrics. Were there games earlier in the year he could have kept guys in to run up the score more? It's silly, when you have a team beaten 30 minutes into the game you should not be penalized for sending in the second string and getting those guys some PT but that is what the predictive measurements take into account. I like Kenpom for individual games but RPI is still the better tool for ranking.

Ken Pom would tell you: "The takeaway here is that if you are interested in evaluating a team’s ability, simply looking at their record puts you at a disadvantage. Scoring margin matters. This is not to say than an 80-point win over Grambling is more predictive than a 60-point win, but in games involving relatively equal competition, scoring margin is useful – even big margins. At least, it usually matters.

There are exceptions, but identifying them is a challenge and I’m guessing there are many fewer exceptions than people want to believe. The fan of every team that is underrated by a scoring-margin method will claim that this is because their coach is more compassionate than his competitors and empties the bench much earlier in the game than his ruthless colleagues. In reality, though, there isn’t much difference in coaching attitudes.

For sure it is the best system that we have for evaluating a teams ability at the moment.

The problem is that ability shouldnt determine the teams in the tournament IMO, results should.

RPI has a similar issue with results. If we lost to Seton Hall, Providence and Bonnies at home but won against St. Joes and away against Davidson we'd have an RPI of 26. That's an RPI most people would expect to make the tournament but our only top 100 wins would be Charleston (74) and Davidson (90) twice.

No metric is perfect but the NCAA at least looks like they're going in the right direction by looking at a number of metrics rather than one. Personally I'd like to see kenpom used more when comparing two teams with very similar resumes. If you have two bubble teams with a similar resume and similar RPI then use kenpom to see which team might have a better chance to go further in the tournament.

[NYGFan_Section208]

I wonder if the folks on 'the committee' spend half as much time trying to understand the various systems...?

[RF1]

The Bracketmatix has dropped URI all the way down to the last 7 seed. Had been a 5 seed prior to Tuesday night.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[KevanBoyles]

Instead of using listing Quadrant 1 wins as a metric, I would like to use winning percentage of Quadrant 1 games. Using winning percentage would allow everyone to more easily compare a Power 5 conference team (that gets numerous opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins) with lesser conference teams that have fewer opportunities.

[collegehoopsjunky]

Hi Everyone,

I wanted to apologize for my nutso prediction of URI being in the Final4 or winning the National Championship. It just goes to show you can be a college hoops junkie like me and have it all wrong on who the best teams in the country are. I obviously failed to take into account some of the mental aspects of URI from a team and coaching perspective.

Definitely a punch in the gut to my ego! Sorry for being so unrealistic.

This is just strange to me. Why are you on here apologizing for a prediction? Are you trying to "save face", because you think our team is not very good now after the Joe's game? Are you concerned your Internet ego is going to take a beating if URI makes an early exit in the tourney? I just don't get this post. Kind of irks me to be honest. Sounds like you are pretty confident in your new prediction of us not doing well in the tourney. This makes me want for this team to do well that much more now, so that people like you who have now written the team off after one bad game can go stick it.

Correct. I think URI is not as good as I thought they were after the Joe's game. They are still good. Just not Final4 good like I made the mistake of claiming. Win a tournament game good? Yes! In retrospect I do not think any team can lose by 30 to a poor Joe's team and still be considered a Final4 team. As a matter of fact I probably was the only one claiming here they could be. So posting with a group of smart URI fans I learned my lesson. You guys know more than me for not being so outrageous. I saw a top 30 KP team with 5 seniors and failed to realize that the mental part of the game still is huge. I don't think the team is as balanced on that side of the ball after the 30 pt route on Senior Night. Maybe I failed to take into consideration the pre season off court issues. All I am saying is that I was wrong.

I think my comments were just so unreasonable that is made sense for me to let people know I am not some know it all like my moniker might suggest. That is why being called Junkhead is accurate.

[RhowdyRam02]

Definitely trolling

[URI'21]

Why are you still here? We'll offer you a free pass to hop back on our bandwagon when the second weekend of the tournament begins if you just stop posting

[reef]

Get ready for Rhode Island v Arizona State round 1 the committee will stick it right up the Hurleys backside

[jmck]

Get ready for Rhode Island v Arizona State round 1 the committee will stick it right up the Hurleys backside

Could easily see that in the 7 10 game in Charlotte with the winner playing 2 seed Duke so that they potentially get Hurley Vs Coach K. Duke has previously played 2 former player/coaches in the second rd. 2001 vs Quinn Snyder and Missouri and Mike Brey and Notre Dame I believe in 2002 or 2003.

We are pretty much locked into being anywhere between 7 and 10 meaning we will be in Detroit Pitt or Charlotte with an outside shot at Nashville

[ramster]

Right now I think we need to only think about winning Friday afternoon. If we lose Friday afternoon things could get very ugly

[CTRamfan]

I like Hurley as our coach. He has brought an energy that has awakened the campus.

I like this team. They have given us a great season. 15 out of 16 times, when leaving The Ryan Center, we were smiling. They represented the school well.

A six to ten seed is where we are this week.......Next week will determine exactly where we belong......go Rhody.

[rambone 78]

ramster is right....we are NOT a lock despite what some say.....not with the way we are playing.

Tourney teams don't gag away games or almost gag away games like we've done.

[ATPTourFan]

Oh stop Rambone. Yes we are a lock.

[rambone 78]

ATP I would agree with you if we were a P5 school.

Yes we're close to a lock imo....but not just yet. We were 40 seconds from a lock.

[wpbrown8267]

My guess is when bracketmatrix updates today we’ll move back another seed line to #8

We’re last #7 as of 8:40 last night, a good hr before that horrific collapse

[rambone 78]

We'll be an 8 or 9....not that it matters between the 2.....and we'll see more 10's and 11's......

[RhodyRam86]

Oh stop Rambone. Yes we are a lock.

ATP, we are probably in, but lose Friday and things will get squirmy.

At this point I believe I could make more of a compelling argument why we should not get an at large.

[rambone 78]

Looks like there could be some bid stealers...and borderline teams making a move....look at Penn St. for example.

Nothing is certain. We just don't know how to do things the easy way.

Anyway, the way we are playing, we are a one and done. A different team is going to have to show up Friday.

[Blue Man]

You are all high on crack.

The committee doesn’t look at the last 5 games as a metric.

We’re a lock and even if we fall to a 9 it would still be tied for the highest this program has ever been given.

Tired legs. Long season. Last time we had a week off we came out and throttled everyone and left a highlight trail.

We’ll be fine.

[ramster]

The committee can look at whatever the committee wants to look at. They can vote however they want. The sheets are a guide just as they always have been a guide.

[Billyboy78]

Last year we were peaking at this time of the year. This year, we're playing our worst basketball of the season. That's my concern.

[RhodyRam86]

The only reason I think we are probably in is that so many brackets had us as a 4 or 5 less than a week ago and it’s hard to fathom going from there to out in 3 games.

However, I am now of the mind that we were overrated to begin with. We got credit for playing one of the toughest OOCs in the country. Who did we beat? SH on a neutral court (and spare me the “without EC”). Other than that we loaded up on a bunch of teams that are going to finish with an RPI in the 100s while other teams were playing teams with RPIs in the 200s. So big deal. We won those games we should have won at home.

We are 5-5 against the RPI 100...no wins on the road. We beat up on a weak A10. For a while we could say we can only beat who’s on the schedule. We can’t say that anymore.

I felt we played great in Olean and lost to a team thatwas just a little more desperate. Come out flat to start the game against St Joe’s? Fine. But come out flatter in the second half? No excuse. And despite the fact we should have won last night, I was not impressed even disregarding the last 40 seconds. We had two players playing very well (JT and CL) one playing his game (Stan) and the rest playing poorly. EC has had a few good games this year, but his overall performance is not worthy of even third team all A10. If he does make one of the post season teams it will be solely on his name.

I would submit that if you didn’t know our RPI all season, our national ranking, or how bracketologists had us seeded, but instead just looked at our schedule and the RPIs of the teams we beat and where we beat them, you would think at best we had the resume of a bubble team.

[Rhode_Island_Red]

The committee can look at whatever the committee wants to look at. They can vote however they want. The sheets are a guide just as they always have been a guide.

The committee, led by Obvious Nepotism Hire Gavitt, has always found reasons to screw a non-cartel team.

[Rhodyram]

The committee can look at whatever the committee wants to look at. They can vote however they want. The sheets are a guide just as they always have been a guide.

The committee, led by Obvious Nepotism Hire Gavitt, has always found reasons to screw a non-cartel team.

We shouldn’t have put ourselves in a position to be screwed.

[woodennickel1]

You are all high on crack.

The committee doesn’t look at the last 5 games as a metric.

We’re a lock and even if we fall to a 9 it would still be tied for the highest this program has ever been given.

Tired legs. Long season. Last time we had a week off we came out and throttled everyone and left a highlight trail.

We’ll be fine.

You are spot on Blue Man worst case scenario they lose their first game in A10 which I don"t think they will they will be an 8. I did not realize a 9 was the highest ever given to a URI team. I still think they will end up at least in the championship game of the A10. I will admit it looks like their confidence has been shaken a little bit. I think the fact that you have a lot of senior guards they will get it going again if they were all underclassman it may have been an issue. Having experienced guards in the tournament is huge.

[woodennickel1]

The committee can look at whatever the committee wants to look at. They can vote however they want. The sheets are a guide just as they always have been a guide.

The committee, led by Obvious Nepotism Hire Gavitt, has always found reasons to screw a non-cartel team.

Meet the Committee

Bruce Rasmussen
Committee chair and director of athletics at Creighton University
Bruce began service on the committee on September 1, 2013 and will serve as chair of the committee for 2017-18.

Other Committee Members Include:
Bernard Muir, vice chair of committee and director of athletics, Stanford University
Mitch S. Barnhart, director of athletics, University of Kentucky
Tom Burnett, commissioner, Southland Conference
Janet Cone, director of athletics, University of North Carolina at Asheville
Tom Holmoe, director of athletics, Brigham Young University
Jim Phillips, vice president for rthletics & recreation, Northwestern University
Jim Schaus, director of athletics, Ohio University
Craig Thompson, commissioner, Mountain West Conference
Kevin White, director of athletics, Duke University

[spar]

Hi Everyone,

I wanted to apologize for my nutso prediction of URI being in the Final4 or winning the National Championship. It just goes to show you can be a college hoops junkie like me and have it all wrong on who the best teams in the country are. I obviously failed to take into account some of the mental aspects of URI from a team and coaching perspective.

Definitely a punch in the gut to my ego! Sorry for being so unrealistic.

This is just strange to me. Why are you on here apologizing for a prediction? Are you trying to "save face", because you think our team is not very good now after the Joe's game? Are you concerned your Internet ego is going to take a beating if URI makes an early exit in the tourney? I just don't get this post. Kind of irks me to be honest. Sounds like you are pretty confident in your new prediction of us not doing well in the tourney. This makes me want for this team to do well that much more now, so that people like you who have now written the team off after one bad game can go stick it.

Correct. I think URI is not as good as I thought they were after the Joe's game. They are still good. Just not Final4 good like I made the mistake of claiming. Win a tournament game good? Yes! In retrospect I do not think any team can lose by 30 to a poor Joe's team and still be considered a Final4 team. As a matter of fact I probably was the only one claiming here they could be. So posting with a group of smart URI fans I learned my lesson. You guys know more than me for not being so outrageous. I saw a top 30 KP team with 5 seniors and failed to realize that the mental part of the game still is huge. I don't think the team is as balanced on that side of the ball after the 30 pt route on Senior Night. Maybe I failed to take into consideration the pre season off court issues. All I am saying is that I was wrong.

I think my comments were just so unreasonable that is made sense for me to let people know I am not some know it all like my moniker might suggest. That is why being called Junkhead is accurate.

I think I speak for many here when I say, nobody has been sitting around thinking to themselves, "Wow, can you believe that collegehoopsjunky guy said we could make the final four?? What a fraud for having that moniker, claiming he knows a lot about college hoops!" It even sounds ridiculous as I'm typing it here! Nobody cares dude! And that's why it feels like you are trolling.