BubbleWatch and Top 25 Polls

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 9 years ago

Is it safe to simplify it to the point that URI needs 6 more wins to be in serious contention come Selection Sunday?

Rhody74 · Unread post by **Rhody74** » 9 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:Is it safe to simplify it to the point that URI needs 6 more wins to be in serious contention come Selection Sunday?

I'd agree with that .... win the last 5 conference games and at least one in Brooklyn to be sure. However, if they win out, they'd at least be co-champions which the NCAA would be hard-pressed to overlook. If they finished 4-1, they'd have to win 2 in Brooklyn.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 9 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:Is it safe to simplify it to the point that URI needs 6 more wins to be in serious contention come Selection Sunday?

7 before we have the at-large conversation. Unless it's 6 but we won the A10 title outright.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 9 years ago

It's safe to say we only need to win one game. Win the game on 3/15 at 1pm, we are in.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

Exactly. Take it out of the Committee's hand and do it
ourselves.
You never know what those coconuts will do, anyway.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 9 years ago

As of this morning, ESPN'S Basketball Power Index has us ranked 48th in the country and the last at large in the tournament.

brady1 · Unread post by **brady1** » 9 years ago

6 Wins and we're DANCING.

GO RHODY!

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 9 years ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:As of this morning, ESPN'S Basketball Power Index has us ranked 48th in the country and the last at large in the tournament.

BPI is a flawed metric trying to be better than flawed metrics. They say all wins are better than losses, so it's better to beat St. Louis than lose to VCU, which I would have a hard time agreeing with.

It's a power metric that tries to persuade readers it's the best at predicting tournament teams, despite only hitting 51 out of 68 teams, on average. I don't think of other metrics as tournament rankings, but simply power rankings. BPI preaches it's not that, but it's not good at the other thing either.

From what I've read, the best "predictive" measure for the order of NCAA teams is KenPom+RPI.

Rhody83 · Unread post by **Rhody83** » 9 years ago

I think if we finish in 2nd place (4 wins would do that) and make it to the finals (2 wins in Brooklyn) we are in as the second team in the A10.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 9 years ago

I will always agree that winning is better than losing. Sure you can't blame a team for losing to a top ten program but logically speaking winning is winning and losing, no matter the team, is still losing. I would take beating three bad teams in a row than losing three games to say kansas Kentucky and Wisconsin. Your record is still 0-3 vs 3-0.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 9 years ago

Rhodymob05 wrote:I will always agree that winning is better than losing. Sure you can't blame a team for losing to a top ten program but logically speaking winning is winning and losing, no matter the team, is still losing. I would take beating three bad teams in a row than losing three games to say kansas Kentucky and Wisconsin. Your record is still 0-3 vs 3-0.

While I partially agree, I think where BPI misses the mark is that the RPI doesn't think that way. The SOS component is huge, and RPI would reward you more for losing at Kentucky, Kansas, and Wisconsin, then beating Grambling St., Southern, and UTSA at home. BPI just wants the wins and while you may be penalized for quality, won't be penalized if you don't lose either. If the BPI did not think this way, perhaps it could become a more accurate predictor in terms of what it's looking to be considered. KenPom, Sagarin, heck even RPI, they don't claim to be numerical predictors of where a team will be slotted. BPI seems to want to be that, even if the formula doesn't quite match up.

RoadyJay · Unread post by **RoadyJay** » 9 years ago

I played around with the RPI Wizard this morning http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Rhode%20Island.html

I played out a number of different scenarios for the regular season and A10 tournament. Obviously, I had to make some assumptions as to our seeding and who we would play in the A10 tournament.

I also made the assumption that a final RPI of under 40 gets us an at-large bid.

Here is what I learned:
-If we win all our remaining regular season games (5-0) we would need to win just one A10 game (Quarterfinals) to finish with an RPI under 40
-If we go (4-1), and finish in the top 4 of the A10, we would need to win 2 games in the A10 (Quarter- and Semifinals) to finish with an RPI under 40
-We cannot afford 2 or more losses the rest of the way. 2 or more losses and we need to win the A10 Championship

Team Ram-Jam · Unread post by **Team Ram-Jam** » 9 years ago

Don't sleep on the La Salle game, this team has been playing much better since the last time we saw them. I don't expect a W @Dayton but do see a win @home against Davidson. 4-1 is not unrealistic if we take care of business with La Salle

seanmc94 · Unread post by **seanmc94** » 9 years ago

Hears my problem with ESPN, they are talking up Pitt as making a run at the bubble. Katz claiming that a victory today vs Cuse can really help.

Pitt is 17-10 with an RPI of 46. Cuse has an RPI of 69.

That's not exactly a "signature" win.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

RoadyJay wrote:I played around with the RPI Wizard this morning http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Rhode%20Island.html

I played out a number of different scenarios for the regular season and A10 tournament. Obviously, I had to make some assumptions as to our seeding and who we would play in the A10 tournament.

I also made the assumption that a final RPI of under 40 gets us an at-large bid.

Here is what I learned:
-If we win all our remaining regular season games (5-0) we would need to win just one A10 game (Quarterfinals) to finish with an RPI under 40
-If we go (4-1), and finish in the top 4 of the A10, we would need to win 2 games in the A10 (Quarter- and Semifinals) to finish with an RPI under 40
-We cannot afford 2 or more losses the rest of the way. 2 or more losses and we need to win the A10 Championship

Good work. Thanks for sharing. I'm assuming when you say we can't have two more losses, you're not counting the loss that would knock us out of the A10? (So the semifinal in your first scenario, the championship game in your second scenario.)

RoadyJay · Unread post by **RoadyJay** » 9 years ago

TP thanks, I was not clear with the last point.

The last point is talking about regular season losses.

-0 regular season losses out of final 5 regular season games... Only need 1 win in A10 championship (win Quarterfinals. Lose Semifinals) for possible At-large bid (RPI under 40).
-1 regular season loss out of final 5 regular season games... Need to win 2 A10 championship games (win Quarterfinals and Semifinals. Lose in Finals) for possible At-large bid (RPI under 40).
-2 or more regular season losses out of final 5 regular season games... Need to win A10 Championship (Automatic Bid)

Hope that clarifies...

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

So six wins, then. (Or seven if we go 3-2 and don't get a bye.)

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 9 years ago

6 wins in our next 5 games.....

DanInAZ · Unread post by **DanInAZ** » 9 years ago

Ramulous wrote:6 wins in our next 5 games.....

Hhahahaha!

bressler3south · Unread post by **bressler3south** » 9 years ago

bressler3south
Post subject: Re: BracketologyPostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:58 pm
Online
Cuttino Mobley

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:23 pm
Posts: 1983
The only Bracketology that counts is the one on Selection Sunday…..

Note the date……….

ONE GAME AT A TIME.

ONE WIN AT A TIME.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 9 years ago

I am actually think we have a better chance to beat Dayton on the road as opposed to La Salle. For match up reasons. That's only if Hass and Gil don't get in foul trouble.
If we get through Mason and win the three after that, we'd be in wonderful shape. Home win verses a team around 50 in the RPI, road win, series sweep over a top 100 team and a road win against a top 50 team. Beat down St. Joey. Our RPI would surge and we'd most likely jump a few of those other bubble teams into the field. Whom will likely not win 5 straight.
Still enjoying the ride and I'm gonna try not to sweat it if we lose any of these games cause we have as good a chance as any in Brooklyn. Seem to get a lot better after every loss as well.
Enjoying the ride! Let's kick ass today!

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 9 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote:I am actually think we have a better chance to beat Dayton on the road as opposed to La Salle. For match up reasons. That's only if Hass and Gil don't get in foul trouble.
If we get through Mason and win the three after that, we'd be in wonderful shape. Home win verses a team around 50 in the RPI, road win, series sweep over a top 100 team and a road win against a top 50 team. Beat down St. Joey. Our RPI would surge and we'd most likely jump a few of those other bubble teams into the field. Whom will likely not win 5 straight.
Still enjoying the ride and I'm gonna try not to sweat it if we lose any of these games cause we have as good a chance as any in Brooklyn. Seem to get a lot better after every loss as well.
Enjoying the ride! Let's kick ass today!

Yes. This is the first season in a long time that late games actually matter. We have a good, young team that gives a lot of promise for the future. And, we do have a legitimate chance to win in Brooklyn.
No matter what happens for the rest of the season, we all (me too) have to take a step back and appreciate just how far we've come as a program.
Now, having said that, I wouldn't mind a tourney bid this year.

DanInAZ · Unread post by **DanInAZ** » 9 years ago

So let's sum up...

URI needs to either win all of their remaining games and lose in the A10 championship game to put themselves in a good position to be considered a team that has a very good chance to be thought of as an NCAA tournaments team or... needs to win the A10 championship. *wink*

Meanwhile EVERY team in EVERY power conference just needs to win 1 game against a team with a winning record in their league and win at least two in their conference tourney to guarantee they GET IN.

Yeah, that about sums up the respect the A10 gets.

brady1 · Unread post by **brady1** » 9 years ago

5 more wins to Dance.

GO RHODY!

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 9 years ago

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 9 years ago

Live RPI has our number at 66 now. So no change there.
Hope our nonconference opponents can win some games today.
Lowell and Southern Miss lost already. Badly.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 9 years ago

I understand trying to provide for different angles and it is fun, but I'm pulling for winning the league.

I also have a plane ticket to Ny where I will pull for that tourney title.

This team doesn't control its destiny, but its close to it. More interested in the ways VCU can lose and we can win the league than how we can go 3-2

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

We are ever so slowly approaching the fringes of the Promised Land.

I know I said the UMass games was big, and it was.

This Wednesday's game is even bigger. Win it, and basically lock up the bye, stay in contention for the conference title, and finally leapfrog Davidson onto the very edge of bubbledom.

Some serious shit happening here.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 9 years ago

Who here isn't pulling for us to win the league? Both ways.

These four non-conference foes got wins.
Brown 57-56 over Cornell
Del st beat Hampton 74-71
Santa Clara beat LMU 70-63
Lookin like Detroit is going to bring home a W at Youngstown St.
Good job them!

The building should be overflowing in that Davidson game!
Oh my god excitement!!!!!!!

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

Nebraska also beat Indiana on the road. Nice win for them. Helps us, I think that makes them a top 100 RPI win too.

BPR2010 · Unread post by **BPR2010** » 9 years ago

??? Rambone. Nebraska faced Indiana way back in December, at home, and lost. Not sure where you're pulling that info...

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 9 years ago

That was the women Nebraska team

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

Damn. I saw that on the ticker. You're right. Didn't look at the left side.

Would have been nice, though.

The Dude · Unread post by **The Dude** » 9 years ago

I feel warm. What is this warm feeling inside of me? It's like an old friend has returned. Is this...could it be....love? happiness? joy? I'm not sure what to do. This feeling is so foreign to me. When it comes to Rhody Basketball, I'm used to mediocrity...sadness...dashed hopes and dreams. No more...no more I say. Bring on this thing called love.
"This thing called love I just can't handle it."
- Crazy little thing called love.
Wednesday will be fun!
I will no longer simply say "go rhody". It will now be the following.
God bless Hurley. GO RHODY!
Give the man the statue already. (haha)

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 9 years ago

I second that Dude!
Nebraska is playing Iowa tomorrow I thinkss

STC · Unread post by **STC** » 9 years ago

Why was Brown playing back to back games? Was one a re-schedule?

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 9 years ago

STC wrote:Why was Brown playing back to back games? Was one a re-schedule?

It's an Ivy thing.

STC · Unread post by **STC** » 9 years ago

ace wrote:
STC wrote:Why was Brown playing back to back games? Was one a re-schedule?
It's an Ivy thing.

Kind of like not having a conference tournament (facepalms)

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

Ivies only play each other on Friday and Saturday.
It's been that way forever.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 9 years ago

Its so they can study during the week.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

Study. They do that? Really?

Oh yeah, they're the Ivies.

Back when I was at URI, I think I studied for like 15 minutes every other Tuesday morning, or something like that.

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 9 years ago

Also gives them more time to protest.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 9 years ago

rodfromcranston wrote:Ivies only play each other on Friday and Saturday.
It's been that way forever.

It helps cut down on missed class time. They also typically play partners each weekend to further cut down on travel. For instance, Brown hosted Columbia on Friday and Cornell on Saturday. They played at those schools 01/30/15 and 01/31/15.

Ivy Travel partners:
Dartmouth, Harvard
Brown, Yale
Columbia, Cornell
Princeton, Penn

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 9 years ago

And Yale hosted Cornell Friday and Columbia Saturday

Smokinjimit · Unread post by **Smokinjimit** » 9 years ago

Lunardi was just on talking about how Davidson
Will get in the dance if they win their next 3 games.
You will need a stop watch to time how quickly
These espn guys jump off the SS Davidson when they
Come to Kingston and get beat by 10 on Weds.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 9 years ago

Exactly. Although I do agree if they could beat us in our house and win out into the start of the A10 tourney, they'd be in very good shape. Problem for them is that they aren't winning Wednesday.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

Besides us, they have GW and VCU at home and Duquesne on the road.
Gotta think at least the VCU game will be a loss.
Too bad GW is doing the CFL Flop. Post February GW would be tougher.

Smokinjimit · Unread post by **Smokinjimit** » 9 years ago

I've got news for the espn guys. They will be jumping on our bandwagon
By 10 pm next weds. We are a bad matchup for Davidson. Offensively you better
Be capable of doing more against us then shooting three pointers. That plays right
Into our style of defense. The very few open looks that they get, they better hit them.
I don't see us losing this game.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 9 years ago

10-21 (5-11)
13-17 (7-9)
24-9 (11-5)

Lonergan is one year ahead of Hurley in his time at GW. Those are Lonergan's first three years there, and it seemed like it could be a blueprint for how things could play out at Rhode Island for Hurley, even though Lonergan inherited a team with a winning record the year before and a program with more recent success. Even so, the total wins are fairly comparable. Now, in year four, GW is sitting at 7-7 in the conference. They could still possibly pull it together and win 3 of 4.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

The difference is, we will be a hell of a lot better than 7-7 at this point next season.

Of course, GW lost some key guys, bigger losses than we will have next season.

Not to diss Gil and TJ either, but the replacements we have coming in should more than make up for their loss. And we're not done yet with recruiting either.

Plus, another year of improvement for our core four.

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