A10 Bracketology (and others)

bressler3south · Unread post by **bressler3south** » 10 years ago

THE LATEST FROM JOE LUNATIC……………

ON THE BUBBLE
Last Four Byes
Pittsburgh
Stanford
Nebraska
Xavier
Last Four In
Tennessee
Saint Joseph's
Dayton
Arkansas
First Four Out
California
Minnesota
St. John's
Providence
Next Four Out
Southern Miss
Florida State
Missouri
Georgetown

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 10 years ago

He covers himself pretty well. With all the teams on that list, where are we?

seanmc94 · Unread post by **seanmc94** » 10 years ago

CT Rhody wrote:Anybody watch Around the horn today? One of the commentators made a re reference that the Big East was strong and not only lost points for the stupidity of the comment but almost got laughed off the show. It was so bad they referenced the insanity of the comment another two times during the show mocking the BE yet again. Can't really blame them there.

ESPN was piling on the BE? NO WAY!!!!

GTown needs to win out to dance; IMHO.

Winner of SJU v. PC gets in.

Only way BE gets 4 is if X wins or Marquette or Gtown win out.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 10 years ago

if one of the "last four teams in" doesn't slip up I don't see how a win over another non NCAA team would get PC over the hump. the BE scratching and clawing for 3 bids, nevermind 4, who'd a thought....and yet you guys still belabor the point about how strong your league is. clearly the national basketball experts are indicating otherwise, almost unanimously. and if semaj and some of the johnnies do bolt as you indicate they may, then the BE will be even weaker next year.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 10 years ago

Sean, Gtown might get in if they make the final. Their good wins might impress the committee enough to offset their bad losses.

As for PC vs. St. Johns, a true elimination game. However, I don't think the winner is safe.

All depends on the number of "bid stealers". There are always a couple. Any more than that, there's trouble.

Same situation exists for St. Joes, if they don't win their Friday game.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 10 years ago

How many times will you be posting the same info in defense of the NBE? Don't worry about this community's opinion... Better worry about national perception when 3 NBE teams get Dance cards.

edrick wrote:
rjsuperfly66 wrote:Even though the Big East is nothing like what it was, the schools that remain -- many of them have earned their reputation that carries the conference today.
That is false, as well. I understand that this thread is all about the fiction we wish were true, but here is Pomeroy on just that.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_new_big_east_by_the_numbers

--------

Here are the final rankings for 13/14 before post season:

1 BIG 12 = 84.41
2 BIG TEN = 83.94
3 BIG EAST = 82.27
4 PAC-12 = 82.24
5 ATLANTIC COAST = 81.43
6 SOUTHEASTERN = 79.65
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC = 79.08
8 ATLANTIC 10 = 78.91
9 WEST COAST = 76.67
10 MOUNTAIN WEST = 76.49

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/2014/conference/

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 10 years ago

that chart and $2.75 will get you a subway ride over to MSG to try and earn the bid.

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 10 years ago

FWIW: http://regressing.deadspin.com/this-mod ... 1539942851

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 10 years ago

I am intrigued, especially if there are online sites that take action on whether teams will or won't make the tournament...

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

I saw that article from Deadspin and was intrigued. And then I saw Georgetown "in," and I closed it out. The only way they are "in" is if they beat DePaul, and then Xavier, and then Creighton. If they get to the finals of the BET, they are in. But the odds of that?

For years and years I tried to create a "formula" that could accurately predict the field and the seeding. There is no such thing. Yet again this year, I will work my ass off after the season to try to mix major metrics with RPI and "calculate" the field. And again, I will fail and proceed to smash my head into my desk.

Simply "predicting" the teams that get in is cool and all, but it's not that hard. Most of us could step in right now, and predict 60 out of 68 teams. Come Sunday afternoon, we could probably all predict between 64-66 teams. It's not that impressive of a feat.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 10 years ago

Fly, you come on here as an almost neutral poster. Yet on your own board, you advocate raiding the A-10, and liking it, to "take the A-10 down a few pegs". Nice.

"Whether we want to look at the A10 as near equals, or no where close, it doesn't help them to lose VCU and ___ (Team Y). VCU is the only school in that conference that scares me every single year. Smart is a great coach who is now getting great recruits. In fact, he is the only coach getting great recruits, which is partly why he is building a scary program. Would I welcome his scary program into the Big East though? With arms wide open. I'd also welcome VCU over say Witchita, because it would be nice to knock the A10 down a few pegs, whereas the MVC doesn't pose as big a threat in the conference landscape."

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

It's true though, and you guys would feel the same way. If you could strengthen your conference, and weaken the "competition," you wouldn't do it? I say it out of respect, because while I do come on here and question whether or not the A10 can keep it up, reality says that maybe 6 bids is high, but 4-5 are certainly obtainable. I also have a tremendous amount of respect for Shaka Smart. I would die to have VCU in the Big East. Well coached, and he is finally getting great recruits. They could be extremely dangerous. Unfortunately, I don't think the direction of the Big East includes VCU, which disappoints me.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 10 years ago

Yeah, VCU with it's 30k+ students doesn't exactly mix cleanly with small Catholic institutions. You can't have them!! haha

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 10 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:I saw that article from Deadspin and was intrigued. And then I saw Georgetown "in," and I closed it out.

They also have Dayton as an absolute lock, and St. Joe's on the bubble. I think that's wrong, but this site has a track record. Obviously, a lot can and will change this week.

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 10 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:I saw that article from Deadspin and was intrigued. And then I saw Georgetown "in," and I closed it out. The only way they are "in" is if they beat DePaul, and then Xavier, and then Creighton. If they get to the finals of the BET, they are in. But the odds of that?

For years and years I tried to create a "formula" that could accurately predict the field and the seeding. There is no such thing. Yet again this year, I will work my ass off after the season to try to mix major metrics with RPI and "calculate" the field. And again, I will fail and proceed to smash my head into my desk.

Simply "predicting" the teams that get in is cool and all, but it's not that hard. Most of us could step in right now, and predict 60 out of 68 teams. Come Sunday afternoon, we could probably all predict between 64-66 teams. It's not that impressive of a feat.

I believe the make-up of the selection committee changes each year, which probably accounts for the discrepancies from year to year. It's not even something like Hall of Fame voting; while that has changes from year to year, the bodies as a whole are pretty stable and easy to predict as a result.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

SmartyBarrett wrote:
rjsuperfly66 wrote:I saw that article from Deadspin and was intrigued. And then I saw Georgetown "in," and I closed it out.
They also have Dayton as an absolute lock, and St. Joe's on the bubble. I think that's wrong, but this site has a track record. Obviously, a lot can and will change this week.

Dayton is probably ahead of st joe's at this point, Dayton's resume is actually really good except for 3 bad losses

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

Chris Mack meet foot, foot meet Chris Mack's mouth

Hoyas lose to DePaul, guess that means DePaul would win the A10 if Georgetown would be top 2 or 3....

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 10 years ago

This was a "must win" for Depaul. lol

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 10 years ago

Bye-bye Hoyas bye-bye!!!

Scratch another BE fraud.

Seriously, where is Reef? Hope he's OK.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 10 years ago

With the new Catholic Big East clearly not living up to the high expectations of some of its supporters, they may want to move up expansion in an attempt to remain relevant. I however really don’t think a large public like VCU would be in the mix. It doesn’t fit the small private mostly Catholic profile of the new league. Furthermore, having a state school might open the league’s operations up to more scrutiny as FOI requests via a VCU might mean delicate business is made public. There is not much more that Catholic institutions fear than having to make their business public.
Bloomberg did a piece the other day on the new Catholic Big Tournament at MSG. It seems, like many other tournaments (including the A-10), it is having difficulty selling tickets. The article reports that there are thousands of tickets still available for the final. While this is not surprising for impartial observers, it is very much for many new Catholic Big East supporters. Many of them had assumed that things would pretty much be the same as it was for the old now defunct Big East. Reality however has hit full force. Attendance is down at many of the legacy member schools, tickets sales for the tourney are disappointing, tv ratings on FS1 are abysmal, the performance on the court is not what was hoped for, and the number of bids is likely to be far less than expected. The new Catholic Big is not looking a thing like an elite power conference. It is instead looking a lot like other leagues such as the A-10 just a ring below the power leagues. Bill Reynolds has a piece in today’s Providence Journal basically stating the new league is not what the old conference once was and comparing it to the A-10. He further writes that its fall may give the A-10 and its members such as URI an opportunity given the the two conferences share much of the same geography.

New Big East Is Slow to Sell Out Tournament at New York’s Garden
By Mason Levinson Mar 12, 2014 8:28 AM ET
Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-1 ... arden.html

Along with great rivalries, Big East lost some respect
Bill Reynolds 03-13-2014
Providence Journal

http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Olive/ ... w=ZW50aXR5

The New Big East: In Spartan Offices, an Ornate Vision
By ZACH SCHONBRUNMARCH 11, 2014-03-13
The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/sport ... ref=sports

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

The BET attendance arguments are somewhat crazy, IMHO. There are 6 less teams and 4 less games. The truest remark is that they miss the impact of NYC communities - Syracuse, UCONN, ND. No debating that. It'll be interesting to see how they fill up, and how much the attendance at events like this pushes expansion.

As for the living up to expectations remarks, doesn't the Big East get more than one season before it is deemed a failure by Fox and you guys? If teams like Georgetown and Marquette bounce back next year, the BE has 4 teams in the Top 25, and puts 5-6 teams in the tournament, then you aren't talking about it being a failure. My trends are always 5 years. This year was an underachievement though, no ifs ands or buts about it. If next year and the following year are more of this, then the argument holds some weight.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 10 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: As for the living up to expectations remarks, doesn't the Big East get more than one season before it is deemed a failure by Fox and you guys? If teams like Georgetown and Marquette bounce back next year, the BE has 4 teams in the Top 25, and puts 5-6 teams in the tournament, then you aren't talking about it being a failure. My trends are always 5 years. This year was an underachievement though, no ifs ands or buts about it. If next year and the following year are more of this, then the argument holds some weight.

At least people have a one year track record now to make reasonable evaluations. Seems to me a lot of new Catholic Big East supporters were predicting business as usual for the new league (similar to the old now defunt Big East) last year before a single game had been played.

By any reasonable measure, the new Catholic Big East has not met the high expectations in Year 1 that many had given it when it was formed a year ago. It still may in time but it will have to do so working againt the narrative and perception that has been formed from the innaugural season.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

The issue was that Marquette and Georgetown were both supposed to be Top 25 programs and Top 3 Big East teams. Both lost key pieces from last years team (Vander Blue and Otto Porter respectively) and never got off the ground consistently this season the way they were expected to because neither developed that go-to guy early enough. Will returning players and very good recruiting classes get them back in the mix next year? If the Big East wants to be what it was described as, they need at least 3 Top 25 teams and 4 teams comfortably in the tournament every season. They weren't far off this season but they weren't necessarily close either. They have had 2 Top 25 programs and 2 teams comfortably in the tournament. It's up to the Georgetowns, Marquettes, and St. John's of the worlds to meet the high expectations they set for themselves if the Big East to be what they described it as. Georgetown has the most to lose, since they basically self-proclaimed themselves the leaders of the Big East. Losing on Day 1 to DePaul while still having something on the line doesn't leave a good taste with anybody.

Sweep The Leg · Unread post by **Sweep The Leg** » 10 years ago

Nova not showing up for a tournament game, what a surprise.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

Good

If PC (or St. John's) wins 2 games, they probably avoid the first 4 game all together. If SHU wins 2 in 2 days, do they have enough gas (or talent) to go for 3 in 3?

Villanova still ends up with a good seed in the tourney and go from there. Probably best case for the BE to solidify 4. You should be rooting for the Wildcats.

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 10 years ago

Feels weird to say this about a team that's 28-3, and I wouldn't be surprised if they came back to beat SHU, but I've thought all year that Nova was vastly over-rated and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them lose in the first weekend of the NCAAs

Sweep The Leg · Unread post by **Sweep The Leg** » 10 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:Good

If PC (or St. John's) wins 2 games, they probably avoid the first 4 game all together. If SHU wins 2 in 2 days, do they have enough gas (or talent) to go for 3 in 3?

Villanova still ends up with a good seed in the tourney and go from there. Probably best case for the BE to solidify 4. You should be rooting for the Wildcats.

Rooting for St. John's is easier. And will the committee look at the NBE differently in a negative way if G'Town and Nova get ousted by the likes of DePaul and Seton Hall? And how much weight will they put into SJU or PC beating Seton Hall instead of Nova.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

PC is in better shape than St John's, I think the loser of today's game is definitely out. If PC wins it may be enough (depends on what the bubble does) if St John's win I think they need 1 more win

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 10 years ago

CRAZY ending at the garden, and DOWN GOES NOVA!!

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 10 years ago

PC gets a big break with Villanova losing.
If they get by St. John's, Seton Hall should be a win.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 10 years ago

I enjoy it when schools from the Main Line lose. Nicely done, Pirates.

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 10 years ago

He makes a good point. Both those teams may have needed the big win over Nova to add to their resume.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

Many bracket "experts" thought that one win might be enough, since in most predictions PC and SJU are either in (more so for PC) or right on the First 4 Out. I don't pretend that SHU will be a good win, but another neutral win and an appearance in the BET championship would likely solidify for either team. I would be very surprised if either team was left out after winning 2 games and appearing in the championship. I think whoever wins today needs to win tomorrow though, because a loss to SHU is still considered a bad loss.

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 10 years ago

There goes that #1 seed for Nova...does ANYBODY want it? Besides WSU/Florida, there don't really seem to be many teams at the top that are playing extremely well.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

Arizona, 3 of the #1 seeds are set imho, Florida the #1 overall then Zona/WSU the next 2

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 10 years ago

Dayton is not playing around with Fordham.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 10 years ago

Thats an interesting point from Rothstein. Not sure whether it'll be the case or not, but hadnt really thought about it like that.

bressler3south · Unread post by **bressler3south** » 10 years ago

TruePoint wrote:Dayton is not playing around with Fordham.

If that were so, it would be that Dayton were playing with themselves………

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 10 years ago

PC is starting to build a good sized lead 50-37. If they win today, they likely have to win again given the opponent will be Seton Hall (a loss would be bad). They might not have needed a win if they had faced Villanova and lost in a close game. The flip side however is that winning vs Seton Hall will be easier and get them to the championship game which would all but guarantee an NCAA bid. They would not be sweating it out as they would with a close loss to VU.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 10 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:I do come on here and question whether or not the A10 can keep it up, reality says that maybe 6 bids is high, but 4-5 are certainly obtainable.

I think you meant to say sustainable. 4-5 bids are sustainable for the A10. 6-7 bids is obtainable.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 10 years ago

PC wins it at the ft line. They were 22-30 (.733) and SJU was 13-26 (.500). That was basically the difference.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 10 years ago

So, PC gets to play a team tomorrow, that's played the previous two nights.
Wonderful.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

RF1 wrote:PC wins it at the ft line. They were 22-30 (.733) and SJU was 13-26 (.500). That was basically the difference.

The key was when they hit. My numbers had them at 12-20 later in the 2nd half. Have to hit the FT when they matter.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 10 years ago

My goodness, Rutgers.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 10 years ago

As much as it pains me to say, PC deserves a bid. They are playing really well for such a short bench. Golf clap.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

PC has to win tomorrow, a loss to Seton Hall is a bad loss and will probably put them on the wrong side of the bubble

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 10 years ago

Yeah I think playing Seton Hall actually hurts. I mean they should beat them, but if they don't all it does it hurt their chances. Where a loss to Villanova wouldnt have mattered.

TexRam · Unread post by **TexRam** » 10 years ago

ace wrote:My goodness, Rutgers.

I was not sure what you were getting at, until I saw that score... wow...

seanmc94 · Unread post by **seanmc94** » 10 years ago

SmartyBarrett wrote:

He makes a good point. Both those teams may have needed the big win over Nova to add to their resume.

This is what annoys me about the pundits. Before the game, they all said this game would virtually punch the winners ticket. Now, a win over a bubble team doesn't cut it if they lose to SHU. But Minnesota hangs on vs an awful PSU squad and everyone says they are in.

I just want consistency

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

it wouldn't cut it because SHU is a bad loss, Minnesota won the game that's all that matter.

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