Pre-Contest Ramblings

Talk about the men's team, upcoming opponents and news from around college hoop.
Obadiah
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Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

In about a month the 2012-13 basketball season will begin, ushering in the Hurley era at URI and an expectation that this coaching change will bring a level of success and highlights that Ram fans have little seen in the past 11 years.

While last year’s team posed a big mystery at the season’s start given the many newcomers, few expected the debacle that followed as the Rams went 7-24, one of the worst performances in URI’s long history. The OOC portion of the season was horrific with embarrassing losses to Brown, Maine, Yale, and BU. The Rams also suffered routs by Nebraska, Georgia State, and Cleveland State. In conference, the monotony of losing was only broken with three upsets wins over Dayton, UMass, and St. Louis.

With all the turmoil surrounding last year’s team and the many departures from the team, this season URI fields a roster lacking depth and prospects for this season are tenuous with all the pre season rankings from the various basketball blogs relegating URI to the bottom of the A-10. The A-10 coaches picked URI to finish 15th. Blue Ribbon Basketball picked Rhody to finish #13. Not the greatest environment in which to launch the Annual Prediction Contest, but sometimes with the lowest of expectations, good things happen.

On the contest, the format will be identical to last year with the prize again being a Mews Tavern gift certificate. Look for the official opening to the contest at the end of this month.
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ATPTourFan
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Awesome, thanks for putting this together again, Obadiah!

Barclays is our NCAA tournament this year.
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jro44
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by jro44 »

Awesome!! Can't wait, I'm hoping I'm in the contest for more than a week this year!! :lol:
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Ramulous
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Ramulous »

In light of the new forum and it's costs I propose the Mews gift card be scrapped and the funds be donated to the board administrator in the name of the winner to defray costs of running this forum.
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

No No No! There must be a prize for the contest. I will not accept (although that was a thoughtful suggestion, Ramulous).

That said, as we get a better idea of what kind of traffic we see on this site as the season gets under way, and some of the mail-in anonymous donations are tallied, I will report back just where we stand on the site hosting fees.
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Blue Man
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Blue Man »

ATPTourFan wrote: Barclays is our NCAA tournament this year.
No, no, no my friend. This is the Dan Hurley era. He'd be appalled to see you say that. The NCAA tournament is our NCAA tournament. We will not over-inflate mediocrity, we will not celebrate "almost," we will not take comfort in "good" losses, we will not lower our expectations! WE ARE NO LONGER PART OF THE PROCESS.

We have real expectations, real goals, and a real coach with a real vision to make them happen.

We are going to out-work, out-practice, and out-prepare. Because of that we will over-achieve. Whatever happens this year, we're finally on the right track. We owe it to the coach and this team to believe and expect better things. Let's get our minds right so that we can actually appreciate REAL success when it comes.
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ATPTourFan
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

I hear ya, so maybe I should have just set that Barclays (which means a top 12 finish in A10) is the tournament we need to excel in this year. Maybe a deep run in Brooklyn will put our guys in an even better position next year when "real" post-season tournaments come calling.
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Essam
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Essam »

BlueMan Right on. Best Post ever!
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reef
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by reef »

Cant wait for this contest !!!!
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Obadiah
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

Here is a another view on how URI compares to other A-10 schools on OOC schedule. This is a breakdown by RPI category of each known OOC opponent. Remember this analysis is based on last season's RPI.

Any confusion over the Butler ranking is because of U. of New Orleans on their schedule. UNO previously was a D1 school, but dropped down, but now are returning to D-1, and this will be their first year back as last year they played a combo D1/D2 schedule and so had no RPI rating.

Code: Select all

Category	Butler  Charlotte  Dayton Duquesne  Fordham  GW  La Salle	 UMass
Top 50	    5	       1	    2	     1	     2  	2	    1	      2
51-99	     2	       2	    4	     2	     3  	-	    3	      1
100-199	   1	       4	    2	     5	     3	  5	    5	      3
200-299      3	       2	    3	     5 	    3	  6	    3	      4
300+	      -	       3	    1	     -	     -	  -	    1	      1
D2/3	      2	       -	    -	     1        -     -	    -	      -

Code: Select all

Category	URI   Rich  SBU  St.Joe’s  St.Louis  Temple  VCU	Xavier
Top 50	   2	  2	  4      4	      1  	    3	  3	   3
51-99	    3	  3	  2      2	      2  	    3	  2	   2
100-199	  6	  4	  1      4	      5	      6	  3	   5
200-299     1	  5	  4      2 	     2	      -	  3      1
300+	     1	  1	  2      -	      3	      3	  2	   1
D2/3	     -	  -	  -      -         -         -	  -	   -
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Thanks for the analysis, OB. I guess the code tag works relatively well for tabular data like that.
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Obadiah
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

Another comment on Butler's schedule. Despite the Bulldogs success in recent years, they face the same problem that URI has in scheduling marquee teams to their home court. For example, all five games against their top OOC opponents will be played away from Hinkle. Their home court schedule is not so great with Hanover, New Orleans, IUPUI, Elon, Evansville to visit. Only Gonzaga breaks this mold.
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twisted3829
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by twisted3829 »

ATPTourFan wrote:Thanks for the analysis, OB. I guess the code tag works relatively well for tabular data like that.
yeah i use the code all the time on the A10 board (composite A10 OOC and the lock of the day contest)
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Obadiah
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

To refresh your memories, here is a summary of past contest winners:

Code: Select all

Contest	Season	Participants	Winner
  #1	   2008-09	     44     RhodyRams08
  #2	   2009-10	     50     luke
  #3	   2010-11	     67     URIGONZO
  #4	   2011-12	     62     Rhody78PSC
There will be a bonus question added to this year's contest.
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sf2010
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by sf2010 »

First time poster, long time reader since the days of the projo board.

Been going to the Ryan Center since it opened, graduated Class of '10.

So excited for the Hurley Era that I'll be competing in this contest for the first time, can't wait!

Recently moved out to Pittsburgh so I won't be able to make it to the RC much this year, but I've already got the Duquesne game circled on my calendar :-)
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Welcome aboard, sf2010!
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URIGONZO
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by URIGONZO »

Let's see if the Gonzo can bring home the gold once again this year.

If I remember correctly everyone over-shot by a lot of wins last year. We all gave Baron too much credit for being a .500 coach.
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URIGONZO
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by URIGONZO »

Ob, does those gift cards expire??? I actually just found mine in my desk, don't think I ever used it?
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

URIGONZO wrote:Ob, does those gift cards expire??? I actually just found mine in my desk, don't think I ever used it?
I will help you find out if it still works! See ya at the Mews!
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Obadiah
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

Gonzo, the Mews Tavern certificate is still good. Your two year delay just cost you the inflation rate.
Also, you were right in that two thirds of contest participants last season predicted URI will have a winning season with 10% predicting another 20+ win season.
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NY2Rhody
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by NY2Rhody »

when does the contest start?
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

OB will announce the opening of this year's contest fairly soon. Don't worry, you won't miss it. Entries are usually allowed up to the day before the first regular season game, if I remember correctly.
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Obadiah
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

ATP's comments are correct. The contest will open at the end of this month.
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Ramulous
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Ramulous »

There has never been a back to back repeat winner....parity reigns !!!
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Obadiah
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

Looking at last year’s stats shows a big opportunity for this season’s Rams’ to counter their thin roster by just playing better defense - based on 31 games the Rams were last in scoring defense, last in FG% defense, 11th in defending against the three, 12th in turnover margin, last in assists, and last in assists/turnover ratio. A look at the scoring stats shows a similar dismal picture, relieved only by the Rams being tops in offensive rebounds - probably just a reflection of the poor first shot accuracy.

While we need the entire team to improve defensively, it is Mike Powell who is key to this defensive transformation and there is no better duo than the Hurleys to teach him the essentials to becoming a superior point guard. Most important for Powell is to show a big improvement in court awareness and anticipation. Also critical is Powell’s taking better care of the ball. Last season’s his assist to turnover ratio was just 1:1 which the Hurleys know is plainly unacceptable.

Powell is only 5-11, but that can be an advantage when it comes to being disruptive defensively. Powell then needs to acquire Jimmy Baron’s deadly shooting from the FT line.
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Billyboy78
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

Obadiah wrote:Looking at last year’s stats shows a big opportunity for this season’s Rams’ to counter their thin roster by just playing better defense - based on 31 games the Rams were last in scoring defense, last in FG% defense, 11th in defending against the three, 12th in turnover margin, last in assists, and last in assists/turnover ratio. A look at the scoring stats shows a similar dismal picture, relieved only by the Rams being tops in offensive rebounds - probably just a reflection of the poor first shot accuracy.

While we need the entire team to improve defensively, it is Mike Powell who is key to this defensive transformation and there is no better duo than the Hurleys to teach him the essentials to becoming a superior point guard. Most important for Powell is to show a big improvement in court awareness and anticipation. Also critical is Powell’s taking better care of the ball. Last season’s his assist to turnover ratio was just 1:1 which the Hurleys know is plainly unacceptable.

Powell is only 5-11, but that can be an advantage when it comes to being disruptive defensively. Powell then needs to acquire Jimmy Baron’s deadly shooting from the FT line.
If we're counting on Powell to make a big difference on this team, we're in big trouble. He is not a point guard. He is also not a good shooter. Also, there is no way he is 5'11". He could be a pest on defense. That's up to him. Defense is effort. That's where I think Hurley could improve Mike's game. Could Mike be useful for this team? Yes. Could he be a difference maker? I don't see it. The difference maker will be playing high school ball in Michigan this year.
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Obadiah
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

I didn't say he was a big difference maker. I said he was critical to making this season's defensive effort much better.
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Obadiah touched on something that I greatly look forward to seeing this season. Smart Team Defense. The team really could not be any worse than last year - few teams could as the numbers showed.
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ace »

The coaches' main goal for Powell is to take better care of the basketball. He'll hold the spot for a year for Minnis/Matthews and then have a decision to make.
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by EasyEdBrown »

Aprospo of nothing...125 teams won >19 games last year. That's 36% of Division 1.
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Obadiah
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by Obadiah »

Earlier we looked at the strength of the URI OOC schedule based on last year's RPI, here is a forecast by Blue Ribbon of how those teams are expected to finish in their conference this year.

Code: Select all

  Opponent        Conference     Forecasted Finish

Norfolk State       MEAC              5 (13)
Virginia Tech       ACC               Last (12)
Ohio State          Big Ten           4 (12)
Seton Hall          Big East         14 (15)
Washington          PAC -12           6 (12)
Loyola (MD)         MAAC              1 (10)
Auburn              SEC               8 (14)
George Mason        CAA               3 (11)
Vermont             America East      1 (9)
Providence          Big East         10 (15)
SMU                 Conference USA    Last (12)
Georgia State       CAA              10 (12)
St. Mary's          West Coast        2 (9)
Brown               Ivy               7 (8)

() indicates number of teams in conference
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Re: Pre-Contest Ramblings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

A few surprises there for me as I read those Blue Ribbon predictions. Would anyone be surprised to see the Hurley-led Rams score a few upsets along the way?
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