THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

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luke
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THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby luke » 1 week ago

The line has opened at URI -14 1/2 . i would say that is a pretty fair line that could get action on either side .
It could still be a 20 point win , but i could also see a 10- 12 point margin . The Rams have to continue the hyper
pressure game and protect the ball if they want to pull off another mid double digit victory . This is no time to
take the foot off the gas or to take their opponent lightly in any way . Richmond has shown the ability to play
well in the past 10 or so games , though they did allow the Bonnies to take them apart in Oolean.
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TruePoint
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby TruePoint » 1 week ago

I expect a throttling. The last time I was this confident in a throttling was Duquesne's visit to the Ryan, though, so take it for what it's worth.
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Da_Process_Survivor
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby Da_Process_Survivor » 1 week ago

yup, they're a guard team that doesn't play defense. bad recipe for them
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ramster
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

RPI has this one as URI by 16.1 with a 93% probability of winning.
This is the highest point spread of any remaining game

I have been nervous about the last 4-5 games but this game I think we match up very well against Richmond. I think out pressing defense, our hunger for more and more respect in the National Polls, being left out of the Top 16 CBS on Sunday, our team confidence, our depth as Dan Hurley say we have 8 starters, all point to exceeding the 14 1/2 points. I'm confident in this one. About to go find a Teddy Bear for tomorrow night.
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twisted3829
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby twisted3829 » 1 week ago

Richmond is better than their numbers indicate, I could see it being one of these 15-20 point games like Davidson that ends up around 10 at the final buzzer
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TruePoint
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby TruePoint » 1 week ago

ramster - FYI when you quote rpiforecast what you are actually quoting is sagarin. rpiforecast's forecasts are based on Jeff Sagarin's projections.
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NJ03
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby NJ03 » 1 week ago

After two high energy/emotional games and a big Friday night road contest upcoming I am a little worried that we come out a little flat ala Duquesne. I'm confident we get the W but have a feeling it might be closer than we expect.
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ramster
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

TruePoint wrote:ramster - FYI when you quote rpiforecast what you are actually quoting is sagarin. rpiforecast's forecasts are based on Jeff Sagarin's projections.


I did not know that.

How do you figure out the probability that one team beats another?
I use Jeff Sagarin's "PREDICTOR" to predict the "expected" margin of victory between any two teams. Becuase this is only what you would expect on average, I combinine that with a standard deviation to come up with a probability of victory. Jeff Sagarin's "PREDICTOR" is consistently the best rating available at precicting future outcomes. Thanks Jeff for making the data available. I DO NOT USE THE CURRENT RPI TO FORECAST FUTURE WINS/LOSSES!
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Billyboy78
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby Billyboy78 » 1 week ago

NJ03 wrote:After two high energy/emotional games and a big Friday night road contest upcoming I am a little worried that we come out a little flat ala Duquesne. I'm confident we get the W but have a feeling it might be closer than we expect.

Another reason we need LOTS of students at this game.
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luke
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby luke » 1 week ago

Yeah i can definitely share your feelings NJ 103 . It is a concern , but as noted , they don't play D so I think it is less of
a concern for that reason.
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luke
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby luke » 1 week ago

The spread is now URI - 16 . It's a big number , but the Rams have been beating even big numbers recently.
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reef
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby reef » 1 week ago

Yes I see -16 also line seems accurate to me
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby adam914 » 1 week ago

I feel like RIchmond covers this one.
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ramster
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

Big reason URI will cover this 16 points is the depth. As Hurley says, URI has 8 starters. So when Richmond subs 3 deep URI basically still has 5 starters on the Floor. Plus that does not even count Akele who would likely start for Richmond. Richmond plays their starters a lot of minutes, but these starters will get worn down by the URI pressure defense. They will not be as effective as when playing teams other than URI.
This is a big point spread for a reason. Richmond is young, inexperienced and will succumb to the veteran, Senior laden line up of a URI Team that is hungry to prove the Basketball world wrong and especially since they were left our of the CBS 16 Teams. Take URI even with the 16 points.
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PeteRI
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby PeteRI » 1 week ago

@ ramster

I can't believe I live in a world where URI gives 16 points and still covers the spread. Crazy!!!
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ramster
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby ramster » 6 days ago

PeteRI wrote:@ ramster

I can't believe I live in a world where URI gives 16 points and still covers the spread. Crazy!!!


No
It means give the 16 points, URI has to win by 17 or more. URI is favored big time time but I still think they cover
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reef
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby reef » 6 days ago

Down to 14.5 today
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PeteRI
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby PeteRI » 6 days ago

reef wrote:Down to 14.5 today


Well there you go. That's more like it. :)
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adam914
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Re: THE EARLY LINE URI VS RICHMOND

Postby adam914 » 6 days ago

Rhody by 9
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