The Road to Barclay's 2013

[Obadiah]

In the expanded 16-team A-10, four teams will not make it to Brooklyn. Who are the four schools that URI needs to beat out if the Rams are to get that last slot in the A-10 tournament? My take is the four will come from this group of six candidates - Fordham, Duquesne, GW, SBU, Richmond and Charlotte. Of these schools we play three, Fordham, Richmond and Duquesne on the road, and have home games against SBU, Charlotte, and GW.

I believe 5-6 wins gets us to Brooklyn, so where do those wins come from? Out of the 6 games among this group we must take 2 of three on the road and 2 or 3 at home, plus one upset – the UMass or Dayton games at Ryan represent the best chances in the upset category. URI's first two A-10 games - at Richmond and at home against Charlotte will be good indicators of the Rams’ chances and we need to take one of those games.

Thoughts?

To help in evaluating URI prospects, the following table is a ranking of A-10 schools by RPI and includes SOS rank and record as of January 7. (based on RealTimeRPI rankings)

Code: Select all

                   Rankings of A-10 Schools
 
         School	   RPI	 SOS   Record*
1.	Butler	       18	  42	  11-2
2.	Temple	       28	  29	  10-3
3.	VCU	          34	  54	  12-3
4.	UMass	        47	  76	  10-3
5.	La Salle	     48	  131	 10-3
6.	Saint Louis	  57	  88	  10-3
7.	St. Joseph’s	 70	  79	   8-4
8.	Dayton	       82	  80	  10-4
9.	Charlotte	    86	  275	 12-2
10.  Xavier	      112	  71	   7-6
11.  Richmond	    113	  207	 10-5
12.  Duquesne	    141	  100	  7-7
13.  St. Bona	    153	  195	  7-6
14.  Rhode Island	179	  45	   5-8
15.  GW	          198	  176	  6-7
16.  Fordham	     247	  156    4-11

*includes games versus D-1 opponents only

[ATPTourFan]

I think Rhody can take one against Charlotte or Richmond, but not if they can't shoot AT ALL like against Brown.

[HobbyBurley]

I'd like to think our chances of making it are good. Big test on Wednesday at Richmond. There are enough winnable games on the schedule plus a couple upsets would get us there.

Agreed with the point in the OP - at Richmond and home vs. Charlotte these next two games are huge. If we can win one of these, I like our chances moving forward.

[Rhody74]

The defense will be there, but we need more consistent scoring from Nik and Malone (while X maintains his). We also have to avoid injuries. If Powell or X are out for any length of time, we're sunk.

[section(105)]

I think the looking down the road that far, especially counting and assinging W/s and L/s to games is too unpredictable. I/ve expressed my doubts regarding making it to Brooklyn. I think the perferred way to go, is take one game, one defensive output at a time.......We/re probably gonna stub our toes in a game seen as a W.

[rambone 78]

Looks to me like 4-6 wins, worst case to best case. We're better than GW and Fordham at least, it seems like. Anywhere from 12th to 14th looks like the finish.

That's about it from here. I'll be very surprised if we do better or worse than that.

[reef]

I predict Fordham, GW, Bona and Duq all miss Barclays

[section(105)]

...............bumpy

[Obadiah]

OK, we lost the opener at Richmond. I considered the first two A-10 games to be critical because if we won one or two, we would be on solid ground to make it to Barclay's. We have another shot on Saturday, but even if we lose to Charlotte, we can still qualify, but then we have to beat all the lower rung teams no matter where the game is played. And in addition, we absolutely need at least one upset win. It may come down to the last game of season.

[section(105)]

uuuuuuuuuuummmmm.......still bumpy......

[ATPTourFan]

I'd be surprised if it didn't come down to the last two games of the season. Very little if any margin for error in this quest for Brooklyn.

[section(105)]

Needing to beat UMass at home to end the regular season to advance, been there before........

[ATPTourFan]

... but new Coach now!!

[section(105)]

Amen..........

[Iggy1979]

Will be difficult if URI doesn't win Saturday. I think URI has a decent shot at 12th.

[reef]

I am predicting URI over Charlotte 65-64

[Obadiah]

A win in either of the first two games would have given the Rams a strong path to Barclay's, so after today's loss to Charlotte, there is now no margin for error. The Rams must win the Duquesne and Fordham road games, take wins at home against GW and St. Bona and must upset one other team. A loss in any of these games means there is no hope for Barclay.

[reef]

I wish I bet on Charlotte

[RF1]

There are actually now four A-10 schools with a worse RPI rating than Rhody - SBU, GW, Duquense, and Fordham. These are the four teams URI will be battling for the last bid to the A-10 Tournament. One of these bad teams will go to Brooklyn by default. The league schedule will play a big role in determining which team. URI plays one game against each team with two at home and two on the road. The breakdown of games between these five teams is as follws:

SBU - @GW, @ URI, @ Duquense, Duquense, Fordham (H&H partner Duquense)
Duqunese - @Fordham, @SBU, SBU, GW, URI (H&H partner SBU)
Fordham - @SBU, @GW, Duquense, URI (H&H partner St. Joe's)
GW - @URI, @Duquense, SBU, Fordham (H&H partner LaSalle)
URI - @Duquense, @Fordham, GW, SBU (H&H partner UMass)

[section(105)]

I wonder what the rebounding stats and comparisons are to that group and URI?

[rambone 78]

Well, we saw how Fordham rebounded against UMass, 51-37.

Since our game against them is on the road, I don't like our chances.

Just like any other game with this team, if they shoot reasonably well, they have a chance with their defense. If not, a loss.

[Rhody Guy]

With our lack of rebounding I wouldn't be surprised if Gaston grabs 20 boards against us.

[section(105)]

Team Rankings Rebounds

Team O, D

SBU 10.8, 20.5

Duke 12.0, 24.1

Ford 12.7, 23.1

GW 11.1, 24.7

URI 9.1, 21.2

[rambone 78]

Not a huge difference, but enough to ensure that URI needs to shoot at least as well from the floor as their opponent, in order to win the game.

[ChiPhiRhody03]

hate to say it, but unless they string together a few upsets, they won't be heading to BK this year. Gritty team, definitely exceeding (my) expectations, but don't think the talent pool is deep enough to get them in the A-10 Tourney. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[rodfromcranston]

Agreed, ChiPhi. I thought we'd upset a couple of people, but things are
worse than I initially thought.
We just don't have the horses to compete, unless the sun the moon and the stars
align perfectly.

[bpaz11]

I agree also. I predicted 4 conference wins and figured that we would win 1 that we shouldn't and lose 1 that we should have. After seeing our first two games and seeing other games from around the league I think we'll be lucky to win 4. They'll be in every game but come up short a lot because of either rebounding, shooting, or both. After watching Fordham and UMass on Sunday I think we're in for a tough battle at Rose Hill in 2 weeks when originally I had that chalked up as a win.

[reef]

We will be in for a battle most every night, I also think we pull a few upsets so I def can see about 5 conf wins