RhowdyRam02 wrote: RhodyRam86 wrote:
so we go 8-3 OOC including 1-3 vs the top 50 (2-3 if PC finds their way back in) and go 14-4 in a weak conference and we are in? love the optimism here and hope you are all right, but I just don't see it.
Christ, BC already has a top 10 win and will have several chances to add more. does anyone see them getting in? there are a number of teams that are not going to make the tournament with 2 or more top 50s.
everyone seems to be focusing on how difficult our OOC is. last year was difficult too with true road games at Valpo (when they had Peters healthy), at Houston and at PC. No question that this year is more difficult, but that will be offset by a weak conference. no Dayton or VCU this year. other than RI, I don't think there is a team in the A10 without at least one bad loss. And no team other than RI has a good win.
If we don't win the tourney I won't be comfortable on Selection Sunday if we go 14-4 in conference. I think we need 16-2.
hoping someone has a compelling argument to talk me off the ledge.
If we go 8-3 OOC and 14-4 in the A10 we're going to have an RPI in the low 30's. You need to give us a compelling argument why this team wouldn't be in with that resume and in reality needs to go 16-2
My compelling argument is made above. First off our RPI is already at 24. I don't see any win on the horizon that can raise it and hard to believe that 14-4 in conference only drops us 10 spots, but I have no idea how those algorithms work. PC's RPI is now 60. Maybe they move back into the top 50, but if they don't, we go 1-3 against top competition. Last year we had 1 top 50 OOC win and losses to PC and Duke (not sure if Houston got into the top 50 by end of year). So the difference is we played one more top 50 OOC game this year and lost and that makes us a LOCK? Also, last year we added 3 more top 50 games in conference and went 1-2. This year we won't add any.
Sum total---last year we go 2-5 against top 50 going into the A10 tourney and despite what the head of the selection committee said publicly, in my opinion we were no lock until we won the final. This year we will be 1-3 (2-3 if PC moves up) and we are lock?