Get Ready for the Contest!

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Obadiah
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Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Obadiah » 3 months ago

With the approach of the season opener, the annual prediction contest will soon open. The contest elements and rules will be the same as last year which I think went well though participation dropped. In my view, key to winning this contest lies in the accuracy of the OOC record.

Some other ramblings:

• While all programs have seasonal ups and downs, the best programs have smaller swings and show consistency. The best evidence of consistency is the RPI over time and the A-10 gold standard here is VCU which in each of the last eight seasons has had a double digit RPI, all under 50. No other school in the conference comes close to that achievement. Dayton is a distinct second, followed by Davidson.

• The URI RPI performance over this same period is marred by the last Baron year and the fallout from that disaster in the first Hurley year. Apart from the hiccup of the 2015-16 season, URI has seen a positive RPI trend under Hurley and its record is in the top half of the conference.

• When you look at the RPI rankings for A-10 schools, one question jumps out - how does St. Bonaventure, a small, financially strapped school, in an out of the way location, do as well as it does versus Duquesne, a larger, better endowed school, in an urban location. Duquesne also has the advantage that their residence halls are within a short walk to Pittsburgh's major league indoor arena where they would play their games, if they had a more successful program. Duquesne has not made the NCAA since 1977!

• The answer to the above question is something more than just getting a good coach. It involves support all the way to the top in a quest for program excellence and critical here is a president who is on board along with the AD and the coach. We are blessed with Coach Hurley, AD Thorr Bjorn and President Dooley, a strong triumvirate important to the future. But we need to keep up the continuous improvement campaign on things both big and small which is why the next big step in my mind is a practice facility adjacent to Ryan.
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Rhodyhooopz
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Rhodyhooopz » 3 months ago

Obadiah you are the best. Looking forward to winning another gift card!!!! LOL
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Seawrightspostgame
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Seawrightspostgame » 3 months ago

Obadiah wrote:With the approach of the season opener, the annual prediction contest will soon open. The contest elements and rules will be the same as last year which I think went well though participation dropped. In my view, key to winning this contest lies in the accuracy of the OOC record.

Some other ramblings:

• While all programs have seasonal ups and downs, the best programs have smaller swings and show consistency. The best evidence of consistency is the RPI over time and the A-10 gold standard here is VCU which in each of the last eight seasons has had a double digit RPI, all under 50. No other school in the conference comes close to that achievement. Dayton is a distinct second, followed by Davidson.

• The URI RPI performance over this same period is marred by the last Baron year and the fallout from that disaster in the first Hurley year. Apart from the hiccup of the 2015-16 season, URI has seen a positive RPI trend under Hurley and its record is in the top half of the conference.

• When you look at the RPI rankings for A-10 schools, one question jumps out - how does St. Bonaventure, a small, financially strapped school, in an out of the way location, do as well as it does versus Duquesne, a larger, better endowed school, in an urban location. Duquesne also has the advantage that their residence halls are within a short walk to Pittsburgh's major league indoor arena where they would play their games, if they had a more successful program. Duquesne has not made the NCAA since 1977!

• The answer to the above question is something more than just getting a good coach. It involves support all the way to the top in a quest for program excellence and critical here is a president who is on board along with the AD and the coach. We are blessed with Coach Hurley, AD Thorr Bjorn and President Dooley, a strong triumvirate important to the future. But we need to keep up the continuous improvement campaign on things both big and small which is why the next big step in my mind is a practice facility adjacent to Ryan.


It would be nice if it happened. On top of the Football practice field? I still would like the north Ryan Center entrance to be more grand and impressive in terms of a statue or things like that. Even intimidating to opponents and impressive to recruits. I consider the southern entrance to be more the back door. Force all visitors through the north and build it up.
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RhowdyRam02
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby RhowdyRam02 » 3 months ago

Thanks again for doing the contest!

On Duquesne, quick scan shows an above .500 record in conference 5 times since joining the A10 in 1976-77 and 3 .500 seasons. Why on Earth did they fire Ron Everhart who was 46-50 in conference there from 2006 to 2012? Certainly that mark wouldn't normally look great but he looks like a damn miracle worker for that school. 2 of their 5 times over .500 were in his 6 years there. Also, how has he not gotten a head coaching job since? And for those of you around then, why did we allow them back in after they left the conference in the early 90's? Seems like that would have been a perfect opportunity to say make big changes or you're not welcome back.
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RhowdyRam02
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby RhowdyRam02 » 3 months ago

Seawrightspostgame wrote:It would be nice if it happened. On top of the Football practice field? I still would like the north Ryan Center entrance to be more grand and impressive in terms of a statue or things like that. Even intimidating to opponents and impressive to recruits. I consider the southern entrance to be more the back door. Force all visitors through the north and build it up.


I definitely think they need to expand the north lobby entrance. It already gets crowded and many people are left waiting outside and that should only increase this year with bigger crowds and more security. Unfortunately I'm not sure how much they'd be able to expand with the Ram lot there.
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Shinze88
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Shinze88 » 3 months ago

Thanks for once again coordinating this Obadiah, I look forward to retaining my title !
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Billyboy78
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Billyboy78 » 3 months ago

Always fun. Thanks again, Obie!
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luke
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby luke » 3 months ago

Thanks again for doing the contest again Obie. I look forward to it every year. You do a fantastic job with it.
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Rhody83
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Rhody83 » 3 months ago

I think Rod mentioned this awhile back in another thread - why can’t a portion of Keaney be renovated for a practice facility. The outside of the practice facility doesn’t matter. Spend the $ on the inside and keep the cost down. I think it is the only chance of a practice facility in the near future.
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NYGFan_Section208
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby NYGFan_Section208 » 3 months ago

Perhaps there should be a discussion about the formatting of the title of the contest first? :lol:
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RhowdyRam02
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby RhowdyRam02 » 3 months ago

Rhody83 wrote:I think Rod mentioned this awhile back in another thread - why can’t a portion of Keaney be renovated for a practice facility. The outside of the practice facility doesn’t matter. Spend the $ on the inside and keep the cost down. I think it is the only chance of a practice facility in the near future.


Keaney is used for volleyball. You'd have to find a new home for them to make Keaney the full time practice facility. It seems between that whole complex you should be about to get everything you need with a minimal addition though.
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RhodyKyle
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby RhodyKyle » 3 months ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:
Rhody83 wrote:I think Rod mentioned this awhile back in another thread - why can’t a portion of Keaney be renovated for a practice facility. The outside of the practice facility doesn’t matter. Spend the $ on the inside and keep the cost down. I think it is the only chance of a practice facility in the near future.


Keaney is used for volleyball. You'd have to find a new home for them to make Keaney the full time practice facility. It seems between that whole complex you should be about to get everything you need with a minimal addition though.


There is space within Tootell to use as the practice facility. Athletics is already exploring this option. They just need a lot of donor help. NCAA money would certainly go a long way in assisting the fundraising.
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reef
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby reef » 3 months ago

My favorite time of the year !!!
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Ramulous
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Ramulous » 3 months ago

Thanks to Obadiah for doing this

Because I abstained last year and we finally went to the NCAA Tournament I will be abstaining again.!!!!!!!!!
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NYGFan_Section208
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby NYGFan_Section208 » 3 months ago

Buddy...get in the contest...you don't have that much influence ;) :lol:
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Ramulous
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Ramulous » 3 months ago

Are you kidding.....I got us into the tournament by not being in the contest......every year I have been in we didn't get in.....my logic is infallible
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NYGFan_Section208
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby NYGFan_Section208 » 3 months ago

I hate to say it (actually, no I don't), but...all curses and 'fan behavior influence'...went out the window forever on October 27, 2004....

Besides, everyone knows the real reason they got into the tournament was because there were three of us that sat in the exact same seats each day, wore the same outer gear, and had the same beer and snack breaks at the A10 tourney in Pitts ;)
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reef
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby reef » 3 months ago

Love the superstitions !!!
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ramster
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby ramster » 3 months ago

Obadiah wrote:With the approach of the season opener, the annual prediction contest will soon open. The contest elements and rules will be the same as last year which I think went well though participation dropped. In my view, key to winning this contest lies in the accuracy of the OOC record.

Some other ramblings:

• While all programs have seasonal ups and downs, the best programs have smaller swings and show consistency. The best evidence of consistency is the RPI over time and the A-10 gold standard here is VCU which in each of the last eight seasons has had a double digit RPI, all under 50. No other school in the conference comes close to that achievement. Dayton is a distinct second, followed by Davidson.

• The URI RPI performance over this same period is marred by the last Baron year and the fallout from that disaster in the first Hurley year. Apart from the hiccup of the 2015-16 season, URI has seen a positive RPI trend under Hurley and its record is in the top half of the conference.

• When you look at the RPI rankings for A-10 schools, one question jumps out - how does St. Bonaventure, a small, financially strapped school, in an out of the way location, do as well as it does versus Duquesne, a larger, better endowed school, in an urban location. Duquesne also has the advantage that their residence halls are within a short walk to Pittsburgh's major league indoor arena where they would play their games, if they had a more successful program. Duquesne has not made the NCAA since 1977!

• The answer to the above question is something more than just getting a good coach. It involves support all the way to the top in a quest for program excellence and critical here is a president who is on board along with the AD and the coach. We are blessed with Coach Hurley, AD Thorr Bjorn and President Dooley, a strong triumvirate important to the future. But we need to keep up the continuous improvement campaign on things both big and small which is why the next big step in my mind is a practice facility adjacent to Ryan.


Obadiah,
Agree with you on the practice facility. Should be the Next big step. Continue with small steps too of course.

How many years have you done this now?

You started off with just the winner but then added attendance, team ppg, and some other nice creative wrinkles

Is it possible to post the winners of the past for each year and category? If not, no problem as I know you put a lot of time into this already, but it would be interesting I think.
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sf2010
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby sf2010 » 3 months ago

Ramulous wrote:Are you kidding.....I got us into the tournament by not being in the contest......every year I have been in we didn't get in.....my logic is infallible


Image
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Billyboy78
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Billyboy78 » 3 months ago

reef wrote:Love the superstitions !!!

In November of 2015, I attended the opening game of the season against American U. I was sitting in section 213 and my seat number was 13. I was thinking to myself, 'I hope all of these 13s doesn't mean bad luck'. I have been living with the guilt ever since.
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ATPTourFan
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby ATPTourFan » 3 months ago

Obadiah, you are a an outstanding member of the Keaney Blue family!!
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Obadiah
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Obadiah » 3 months ago

As requested, ramster

Code: Select all

PREDICTION CONTEST WINNERS

Contest   Season   Participants   Winner

#1       2008-09        44      RhodyRams08
#2       2009-10        50      luke
#3       2010-11        67      URIGONZO
#4       2011-12        62      Rhody78PSC
#5       2012-13        85      CTRamfan  (80 of 85)
#6       2013-14        78      ramster   (76 of 78)
#7       2014-15        88      RAM67     (13 of 88)
#8       2015-16        95      ramfan85  (95 of 95)
#9       2016-17        71      Shinze88  (70 of 71) 
#10      2017-18                  TBD      
 


BONUS CONTEST WINNERS

Contest   Season   Participants   Contest Topic            Winner

#1       2012-13        83   Top Scorer, ppg              Rhodyhoopz
#2       2013-14        78   Average Home Attendance      CTRamFan
#3       2014-15        87   Team Scoring, ppg            URI_IEP
#4       2015-16        95   Average Home Attendance      luke
#5       2016-17        71   Team Scoring, ppg            Rhodyhoopz
                        71   Average Home Attendance      BleedBlue87
#6       2017-18             Team Scoring, ppg               TBD
                             Average Home Attendance         TBD
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Ramulous
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Ramulous » 3 months ago

I see my previous handle in that winners list.....
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Shinze88
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Shinze88 » 3 months ago

It's both interesting (and ominous) to see that those who have predicted the Rams to have the "worst" records have done very well in the prediction contest if I'm reading Obie's post correctly. I think this is mostly due to having to make picks prior to seeing the team play, but with a mostly veteran team returning, its pretty clear what we have this year. The non conference record will likely decide this competition as some of the teams might not have the cachet of the elite teams but are predicted to do well in their respective conferences. Good Luck to all !!
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ramster
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby ramster » 3 months ago

Thanks Obadiah,

As always great info.

Some items of note.....
- This is the 10th anniversary of your contest. That in itself says a LOT about you!! Congratulations!
- I am positive that no college basketball message board has as good a contest as you and certainly not over a ten year span.
- Interesting that nobody has won more than once
- Last year had the fewest entries of all the Hurley years and yet we were predicted to have our best year yet? Seems odd.
- Even though last year was the fewest entries of the Hurley years, it still exceeded any of the 4 Baron years
- The Projo should do a story on your contest!
- And you do it all for free, no contest entry fee and you provide the winning prizes. Rhody Fan of the finest caliber. Plus fact based commentary and statistics gathering to boot.
- I’m not necessarily encouraging others to enter because that will hurt my chances but it makes no sense to me that posters would not enter. Nothing to lose - except your pride if you turn out to be way off and eliminated early :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Rhody74
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Rhody74 » 3 months ago

ramster wrote:Thanks Obadiah,

- Last year had the fewest entries of all the Hurley years and yet we were predicted to have our best year yet? Seems odd.


Probably because the previous season was so skewed after EC was injured.
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reef
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby reef » 3 months ago

I am surprised only 71 entrants last year we should sail by that this year
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Iggy1979
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Re: Get Ready for the Contest!

Postby Iggy1979 » 3 months ago

Could someone post the game-by-game attendance from last year?
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