2017-18 Bracketology

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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

Forecast RPI still to be updated from Last night. Based on RPI Forecast:

We should be a 2-seed if we win out regular season. But then seeding would depend on the outcome of the A10 Tournament
Losing a game should still be a 2-seed (based on RPI and not including the A10 Tournament)
Losing 2 games should be a 3-seed (based on RPI and not including the A10 Tournament)

26-3 = RPI 5
25-4 = RPI 7
24-5 = RPI 10

Awesome to be Live RPI =5 and 2 ACC Teams and 2 BE Teams ahead of us. Pretty lofty stuff.

Of the Top 10 Teams in RPI URI has the highest ranked OOC SOS at 3. What a masterful job the staff did with the OOC Schedule. I don't hear complaints any more that the Staff only scheduled 29 games out of a possible 31. Can't have worked out much better than this.

RPI Feb 10.png

Expected RPI February 10.png
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ATPTourFan » 1 week ago

Fortunately, that clean game last night improved our KenPom rating 4 spots to #28.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody83 » 1 week ago

The 19-10 at 0.01% is funny. Would that be a forfeit of a previous game.
I am surprised that the probability of them going 3-3 or worse is 26%.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody83 » 1 week ago

Beachcomber wrote:Interesting article in ESPN today about Tournament seeding, with a mention of URI as a team to watch under the new standard:

"When the NCAA made its team-sheet changes last month, it separated out the three résumé metrics (strength of record, KPI and RPI) from the three team-strength metrics (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin ratings). The sheet then averages the ranks of the three résumé metrics from the ranks of the three team strength metrics and then averaged all six ranks together. What we don't yet know is how the committee will weigh these two types of metrics.

Should a team like Gonzaga or Wichita State (BPI: 9, SOR: 33) be ranked at all, that would suggest the committee could be considering team-strength metrics such as BPI or Sagarin ratings more than it had in the past.

Regardless of how it weighs the new metrics, the key signal from the NCAA is that it is preparing to move away from RPI. That's a positive for anyone hoping for a more accurate bracket, and it will help the committee avoid seeding flubs such as in 2016 with Oregon, which received a No. 1 seed while ranked fourth in RPI but 10th in SOR and 28th in BPI. Regarding RPI this year, one team to watch is Rhode Island, which ranks fifth in the old statistic but 15th in strength of record and 26th in BPI."


This is saying URI should be seeded lower based on SOR and BPI. Not great that the year they throw out RPI Rhody is #5.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby rambone 78 » 1 week ago

I doubt we'll be a 2 or 3 even if we win out.....and that's including the A10 tourney.

Yes our RPI indicates that, but our Kenpom and BPI don't. The committee will be using all 3 of those metrics when seeding. Throw in the SOR too.

A 4 if we win out, imo. 5 with one loss, 6 with 2 losses.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

Rhody83 wrote:
Beachcomber wrote:Interesting article in ESPN today about Tournament seeding, with a mention of URI as a team to watch under the new standard:

"When the NCAA made its team-sheet changes last month, it separated out the three résumé metrics (strength of record, KPI and RPI) from the three team-strength metrics (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin ratings). The sheet then averages the ranks of the three résumé metrics from the ranks of the three team strength metrics and then averaged all six ranks together. What we don't yet know is how the committee will weigh these two types of metrics.

Should a team like Gonzaga or Wichita State (BPI: 9, SOR: 33) be ranked at all, that would suggest the committee could be considering team-strength metrics such as BPI or Sagarin ratings more than it had in the past.

Regardless of how it weighs the new metrics, the key signal from the NCAA is that it is preparing to move away from RPI. That's a positive for anyone hoping for a more accurate bracket, and it will help the committee avoid seeding flubs such as in 2016 with Oregon, which received a No. 1 seed while ranked fourth in RPI but 10th in SOR and 28th in BPI. Regarding RPI this year, one team to watch is Rhode Island, which ranks fifth in the old statistic but 15th in strength of record and 26th in BPI."


This is saying URI should be seeded lower based on SOR and BPI. Not great that the year they throw out RPI Rhody is #5.


They did not throw out RPI, RPI is still included on the Team Sheets.
They replaced 1-50, 51-100, etc with Quadrants which give more weight to playing games on the Road and at Neutral Sites which only makes common sense. Not having differentiated between Home Wins and Road/Neutral Wins was not fair.

They had the Team Sheets in the past - have now RPI, KPI, SOR = Average; then BPI, POM, SAG = Average then they have a Total Average of all of them as in this example for Purdue.

Purdue 17 - 9 (RPI: 35 KPI: 34, SOR: 33, AVG: 34) (BPI: 32, POM: 178, SAG: 31, AVG: 80.33) (AVG: 57.17 )


Key is that the Committee still can consider, as in the past, whatever they want to consider and they do not have to be restricted to the Team Sheet. Nothing even says they have to read the Team Sheets. The Member can look only at the RPI if he or she wants to, not saying they should but the Team Sheet is a Guide, a source of information. Interviews with Coaches, How strong a Team finished the Season, How weak a Team finished the Season, Key Recent Injuries, Players having returned from Injury, AP Top 25, ESPN Top 25, Magazines, Newspaper Articles, TV, Radio, Talk Shows, anything is allowed for a Committee Member to Consider.

The idea that a Monmouth or St Bonaventure can be kept out of the Tournament is still possible because Members are Voting their Opinion, and a Tulsa can still sneak in even if they are not picked by a Single Person in the Bracketologist SpreadSheet as was the case a couple of years ago.

But at least the Team Sheet is now giving credit to more than just the RPI and they are giving credit for Teams playing on the Road and On Neutral Sites. These enhancements will help the Mid Major and Non P5 Teams in being selected to the NCAA and also for future scheduling

Here is a good article by Andy Katz on the subject

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... mphasizing
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody74 » 1 week ago

I think a 4 is our ceiling, and that's if we win out including the A10 tournament.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ATPTourFan » 1 week ago

5 is fine with me. We don’t have many great wins but we do have a very strong and clean resume.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby adam914 » 1 week ago

rambone 78 wrote:A 4 if we win out, imo. 5 with one loss, 6 with 2 losses.


I think this is probably about right. I feel like we'll end up a 5 or 6 at this point. I still think it'll be tough to win out through the conf tourney, but if we do then a 4 is possible.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Roz » 1 week ago

College Gameday on ESPN picked their sweet 16 and included URI
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby EZBuckets » 1 week ago

Footage of the ESPN Gameday crew picking their top 16 overall seeds...

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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Roz » 1 week ago

ATPTourFan wrote:5 is fine with me. We don’t have many great wins but we do have a very strong and clean resume.

You say that, but I think the fact EC was not with us for 9 games will be taken into consideration. I feel we would have won the Alabama game with him...thats it though
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby TruePoint » 1 week ago

I definitely understand why people lean toward being conservative with their seeding expectations, but I think if you are projecting out that URI runs the table thru the A10 tournament, you have to also expect that you'll see a continued improvement with our BPI/kenpom rankings (or at least a decent likelihood of that happening). If we get the kenpom/BPI number down to around 20 or better, you combine that with a top-5ish RPI, a 29-3 record, and a likely poll ranking of around 10 (which is not an official seeding criteria, but these are humans doing the seeding after all)...that suddenly makes you a much stronger candidate for a high seed. The only thing we probably can't do anything about is our quadrant 1 wins, other than hope PC and Bonnies finish the season strongly.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby eli#10 » 1 week ago

I will take a 5 or 6 seed right now.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby twisted3829 » 1 week ago

will be interesting so see if we somehow make the top 16 seeds tomorrow when they are announced. or if we are in the discussion at all (not totally sure what is talked about when its released)
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhode_Island_Red » 1 week ago

eli#10 wrote:I will take a 5 or 6 seed right now.


I don't care who is on the committee -- experience shows that non-cartel teams have a much higher probability of getting screwed. A 5 would be just short of a miracle, especially with the sorry state of our league this year.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby urirx » 1 week ago

Does anybody know about what time and what channel the selection committee will be announcing their top 16? I assume cbs but if others have better knowledge it would be greatly appreciated
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby adam914 » 1 week ago

urirx wrote:Does anybody know about what time and what channel the selection committee will be announcing their top 16? I assume cbs but if others have better knowledge it would be greatly appreciated


https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... 11-on-cbs/

The show will air from 12:30-1 p.m. ET on Feb. 11 before CBS' broadcast of the Michigan-Wisconsin game. The show will also be available to stream on CBS All Access.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Joe95 » 1 week ago

Rhode Island will be the highest seeded team outside the top seven conferences

"The Rams are running roughshod over the Atlantic 10, sitting at 12-0 in the league and 20-3 overall. More importantly, they have a top-10 RPI and nonconference SOS, with several quality mid-major wins to go with a neutral-site victory over Seton Hall. The Rams' superior resume metrics will give Danny Hurley's group the edge over the winner of the West Coast Conference tourney."

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ion-sunday
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby adam914 » 1 week ago

Just a couple of hours away from the reveal of the top 16 seeds on CBS. I don't think we'll hear our name get called, I have a feeling we're just outside that range as of now, but can't help but stop and think about how incredible it is that we even are in the position to tune in and wonder if we might be on that list.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby RhowdyRam02 » 1 week ago

Even if we're not one of the 16 I think you'll hear a lot about us in that half hour. Outside of the one seeds I think we'll be the biggest topic of conversation, no matter which side of the cut we land
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ATPTourFan » 1 week ago

Right. If BracketMatrix has us as a middle-5 right now, we're not going to be higher than that by the actual NCAA Selection Committee.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby twisted3829 » 1 week ago

that was before yesterday's games too
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby twisted3829 » 1 week ago

show's starting, it's weird to watch this with huge interest of hearing URI's name this early
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

I think we are in the Top 16. If this were a week ago I would say no.
I'm guessing 15

Reasons:
- #5 in Live RPI
- #9 in Expected RPI Rank
- #18 in last AP Poll but will move up to at least #15 on Monday
- We Start 4 Seniors and a Sophomore who plays like a 5th Year PG - this is big in this age where Duke and Kentucky are struggling because of the practice of early departures to the NBA - one and done
- We have 8 Starters as Dan Hurley has been saying of late
- We are undefeated in A10 Conference Play and clearly, without any question, the Top Team
- Our Head Coach is highly respected and popular
- We went to the NCAA Last Year and made noise with a solid nucleus returning
- We have a 15 game winning streak
- If they want a non P5 team in the Top 16 (besides Cincinnati) then we make the most sense - Gonzaga has a good case after last night's win but their RPI is not good
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ATPTourFan » 1 week ago

I’m DVRIng it!!
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby twisted3829 » 1 week ago

► Show Spoiler
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

South
1 Virginia
2 Cincinnati
3 Michigan State
4 Tennessee

East
1 Villanova
2 Duke
3 Texas Tech
4 Ohio State

Midwest
1 Xavier
2 Auburn
3 Clemson
4 Oklahoma

West
1 Purdue
2 Kansas
3 North Carolina
4 Arizona

There was discussion that URI or Gonzaga could have been in the 16 and the biggest objection was Oklahoma
Jerry Palm next up to discuss the rest of the Bracket
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby URI'21 » 1 week ago

Lame! Oklahoma and Tennessee both ranking above us. Bullshit

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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Da_Process_Survivor » 1 week ago

Cartel is still going strong...

How the fuck does Oklahoma get a 4 seed by losing 6 of 8?!
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby twisted3829 » 1 week ago

oklahoma doesn't make sense, they have been tanking like a Baron team. lost 6 of the last 8

Seth Davis very adamant against Oklahoma saying Gonzaga or URI should be there
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby adam914 » 1 week ago

And there you have it. Losing 6 of 8 in the Big 12 is worth more than being undefeated in the A10. Tells us all we need to know about the committee this year. We'll likely be a 6 seed even if we win out.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

Interesting matchups
7-Seed PC vs 10-Seed Kentucky in South

8-Seed Nevada vs 9-Seed New Mexico State

4-Seed Ohio State vs 13-Seed Buffalo in East

5-Seed URI vs 12-Seed Loyola of Chicago in Mid West

Clark Kellogg just said that Rhode Island could very easily have been in this Top 16

For me it makes no sense that Tennessee was the 13th Team (1st of the 4-Seed Teams) following that 28 point thrashing they took yesterday at Alabama

We lost at Alabama by 4 points without EC in the

Ask Avery Johnson who the better team is between Tennessee and URI
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby theblueram » 1 week ago

I like they called out Oklahoma and mentioned Rhody. Should give the committee something to think about in a month. Especially if Rhody keeps rolling.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhodymob05 » 1 week ago

P5 bias like you heard about. Win and prove them wrong. I think we steamroll Oklahoma if we play them.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Blue Man » 1 week ago

I love it. Good. Doubt us. This is the stuff we need to push the rest of the way.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Da_Process_Survivor » 1 week ago

With friends like these....kinda sad that K Mac is playing the snub card more than or own beat writer

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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody15 » 1 week ago

Cannot wait for Koch to chime in about the dip in attendance on Tuesday.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ace » 1 week ago

It’s just facts. Why are you looking for things to be pissed about? If anything, it shows that McNamara is more out of touch with the current standards. Just keep winning, and things will sort themselves out.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby NYGFan_Section208 » 1 week ago

Blue Man wrote:I love it. Good. Doubt us. This is the stuff we need to push the rest of the way.


Hopefully good motivation for the crew...
And, for us fans, who would have said pre-season...we'd be kvetching about being left out of an imaginary Top 16?
Just like 'what #10 Kansas, or #15 Tennessee or #17 WVU does is relevant to URI...'

It's all insanely good great....
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

on the plus side it gives our guys more bulletin board material

and it was nice to see the 5-seed but if URI keeps this winning streak going we will leave that 5-seed in the dust

This is why I like the AP and ESPN Polls which tend to closely mirrow one another anyway. The AP Poll I specifically like - whose writers get scrutinized every week for their individual selections by other writers and the general public (Kevin Mac last week as a great example when he was called out by Gary Parrish)

Plus the RPI has URI right up there in the Top 10 and we have been there for some time now. Keep winning and we lock in that Top 5 RPI Expected Ranking - and that does not even include results of the A10 Conference Tournament.

The higher we go in AP the more difficult it will be for the "Committee" to screw us - or at least it puts pressure on them to have to defend their P5 bias.

Just keep winning baby
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Shaolin Swat » 1 week ago

Important thing to remember is that it was Jerry Palm that has us as a 5 seed, not the committee. At this point, we can't be sure where the committee has us ranked/seeded.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby theblueram » 1 week ago

Oklahoma is projected to be .500 in conference. A 4 seed at .500 in conference. 19-11 overall and 9-9 in conference.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Da_Process_Survivor » 1 week ago

ace wrote:It’s just facts. Why are you looking for things to be pissed about? If anything, it shows that McNamara is more out of touch with the current standards. Just keep winning, and things will sort themselves out.


Gee, I don't know...how about mentioning the FACT that Oklahoma has lost 6 of 8.

Or the FACT that URI has a better RPI, Kenpom and BPI!
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Blue Man » 1 week ago

ace wrote:It’s just facts. Why are you looking for things to be pissed about? If anything, it shows that McNamara is more out of touch with the current standards. Just keep winning, and things will sort themselves out.


Because a lot of our fans have lived life as victims and never thought about watching basketball outside of Kingston during that time.

Now that we’re good they have no idea that standards outside of Kingston changed too.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Section104 » 1 week ago

What doesn’t make sense to me is how the whole quadrant system is based on RPI. How do you value RPI for quadrant and then devalue it (URI #5 overall) when it comes to seeding the top 16.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Blue Man » 1 week ago

Da_Process_Survivor wrote:
ace wrote:It’s just facts. Why are you looking for things to be pissed about? If anything, it shows that McNamara is more out of touch with the current standards. Just keep winning, and things will sort themselves out.


Gee, I don't know...how about mentioning the FACT that Oklahoma has lost 6 of 8.

Or the FACT that URI has a better RPI, Kenpom and BPI!


Because the FACT is that the committee is heavily weighing quadrant games more than anything else. Oklahoma has 6. We have 1.

Facts 2.0
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Da_Process_Survivor » 1 week ago

Section104 wrote:What doesn’t make sense to me is how the whole quadrant system is based on RPI. How do you value RPI for quadrant and then devalue it (URI #5 overall) when it comes to seeding the top 16.


It's what the committee does...move the goal posts until you can justify your P5 boner.

RPI

OU - 21
RI - 5

Kenpom

OU - 28
RI - 27

BPI

OU - 31
RI - 24
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

Da_Process_Survivor wrote:With friends like these....kinda sad that K Mac is playing the snub card more than or own beat writer



Don't understand this because Kevin Mac's Tweet even questioned Oklahoma in the Top 16 - so what is the Quadrant comment trying to justify? and on top of that Kevin Mac even mentions Oklahoma's RPI of 21 in his justification. But wait - you just said Oklahoma shows how the Committee is getting away from RPI? :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

The New Quadrant concept values road wins more - well hallelujah!!! Before road and neutral were not considered - unbelievable

Bottom line is the Team Sheets have existed in the past, now they have been modified to include more info and Quadrant categorization. But Opinions of each Committee Member are what counts - they can look at whatever they want and make their decision.

Their decisions made today made me think they made their decisions a week ago and did not modify based on what has happened since last Saturday - that was my thought after watching today. It seemed like a "lazy" selection of the Top 16.


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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

Blue Man wrote:
Da_Process_Survivor wrote:
ace wrote:It’s just facts. Why are you looking for things to be pissed about? If anything, it shows that McNamara is more out of touch with the current standards. Just keep winning, and things will sort themselves out.


Gee, I don't know...how about mentioning the FACT that Oklahoma has lost 6 of 8.

Or the FACT that URI has a better RPI, Kenpom and BPI!


Because the FACT is that the committee is heavily weighing quadrant games more than anything else. Oklahoma has 6. We have 1.

Facts 2.0


By how much more? In their opinion? I'd like to see these facts
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