2017-18 Bracketology

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Rhody83
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody83 » 2 weeks ago

If you are going to predict Rhody’s seeding you have to project their win/loss in the A10 Tournament. The 26-3 record is incomplete. Do they win the tournament? Do they make it to the finals and lose? Do they lose in the semis? How they perform in the A10 tournament will have an impact.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Billyboy78 » 2 weeks ago

Rhody83 wrote:If you are going to predict Rhody’s seeding you have to project their win/loss in the A10 Tournament. The 26-3 record is incomplete. Do they win the tournament? Do they make it to the finals and lose? Do they lose in the semis? How they perform in the A10 tournament will have an impact.

Actually I meant 29-3, running the table.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby rjsuperfly66 » 2 weeks ago

Image

This is a copy of a bracket I made using this morning's bracket matrix update ... I go by total brackets, seed lists for tiebreakers, until auto bids which I just use seeding.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody74 » 2 weeks ago

Interesting matchups for our local teams. Nevada would be tough for the Fryahs. I dread Oklahoma and Trae Young.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby rambone 78 » 2 weeks ago

We would beat Oklahoma....just put Stan on him.....or Jeff.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby bigappleram » 2 weeks ago

Trae Young into Purdue...I could think of better matchups!
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby wpbrown8267 » 2 weeks ago

Rhody74 wrote:Interesting matchups for our local teams. Nevada would be tough for the Fryahs. I dread Oklahoma and Trae Young.


The rotation of Stan, Jeff, and JT would have Trae commit 7+ TOs

They would wear him down and he would probably jack up 40 shots Carmelo style while shoot 20% from the floor

We would match up very well with Oklahoma
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby steviep123 » 2 weeks ago

wpbrown8267 wrote:
Rhody74 wrote:Interesting matchups for our local teams. Nevada would be tough for the Fryahs. I dread Oklahoma and Trae Young.


The rotation of Stan, Jeff, and JT would have Trae commit 7+ TOs

They would wear him down and he would probably jack up 40 shots Carmelo style while shoot 20% from the floor

We would match up very well with Oklahoma


My downstairs neighbors went to OU. It would be fun to watch that one with them. Or not.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby TruePoint » 2 weeks ago

OU might be the team I am least afraid of in the whole field. I love watching Young and he is super talented. But if your team's profile is that you are over-reliant on one player, and that one player is a guard, and that guard is not overly physical, turnover prone and highly dependent on jacking up threes, I would really like our chances in that game.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby SmartyBarrett » 2 weeks ago

TruePoint wrote:OU might be the team I am least afraid of in the whole field. I love watching Young and he is super talented. But if your team's profile is that you are over-reliant on one player, and that one player is a guard, and that guard is not overly physical, turnover prone and highly dependent on jacking up threes, I would really like our chances in that game.


This. Young also disappears (or at least goes cold) when he gets frustrated. I'm pretty confident URI's guard D can accomplish that.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby rhodyruckus » 2 weeks ago

But on the flip side, I have no doubt our backcourt would all have 3-4 fouls with 10-15 minutes left in the game. Although a freshman Young will definitely get the Kobe Bryant treatment from the refs during the tournament especially against a non-P5 school.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhodymob05 » 2 weeks ago

ESPN had URI as "Should be in", not sure I've ever seen URI in that category.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby rhodysurf » 2 weeks ago

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... final-four

So weird actually being in these articles...

Why your team won't make the Final Four

Rhode Island Rams

Danny Hurley has a great story and sleeper at Rhode Island, a team that hasn't lost since Dec. 6. And the Rams force turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents' possessions. But they had a 13-point lead with six minutes to play against UMass and escaped with a two-point win last week. The Rams were down by a point near the six-minute mark at Saint Louis last month. Those are non-tournament teams. It's not that we should overanalyze those struggles because they have an abundance of lopsided victories too, but we should ask a question: Will the Rams play to their potential or play down to their competition in March?
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody74 » 2 weeks ago

rhodysurf wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22336659/flaws-keep-villanova-wildcats-virginia-cavaliers-purdue-boilermakers-other-teams-reaching-final-four

So weird actually being in these articles...

Why your team won't make the Final Four

Rhode Island Rams

Danny Hurley has a great story and sleeper at Rhode Island, a team that hasn't lost since Dec. 6. And the Rams force turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents' possessions. But they had a 13-point lead with six minutes to play against UMass and escaped with a two-point win last week. The Rams were down by a point near the six-minute mark at Saint Louis last month. Those are non-tournament teams. It's not that we should overanalyze those struggles because they have an abundance of lopsided victories too, but we should ask a question: Will the Rams play to their potential or play down to their competition in March?

I’m not suggesting we’re a FF team (though anything’s possible) but playing down won’t be the reason if they don’t.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby urirx » 2 weeks ago

rhodysurf wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22336659/flaws-keep-villanova-wildcats-virginia-cavaliers-purdue-boilermakers-other-teams-reaching-final-four

So weird actually being in these articles...

Why your team won't make the Final Four

Rhode Island Rams

Danny Hurley has a great story and sleeper at Rhode Island, a team that hasn't lost since Dec. 6. And the Rams force turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents' possessions. But they had a 13-point lead with six minutes to play against UMass and escaped with a two-point win last week. The Rams were down by a point near the six-minute mark at Saint Louis last month. Those are non-tournament teams. It's not that we should overanalyze those struggles because they have an abundance of lopsided victories too, but we should ask a question: Will the Rams play to their potential or play down to their competition in March?


I am going with celebrate that we are here, and that we are often mentioned before UK and UNC. In my world of pharmacy friends, this is a really really big deal!
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby reef » 2 weeks ago

Bring on the Sooners I am certain DH would have a good game plan for them
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby NYGFan_Section208 » 2 weeks ago

This is fantastic...to be discussed amongst the top programs in the nation...this is why I think some may forego the A1o tourney and save their invesent $ for the NCAAT...anyone else get that sense?
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Ramulous » 2 weeks ago

I booked the trip to DC long ago.....we have two nieces living in the DMV and one just had a baby.....so we are going anyway....but any other year I would skip the A10 and just wait to selection Sunday and spend my money on getting to where we would be placed....
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby PeterRamTime » 2 weeks ago

SmartyBarrett wrote:
TruePoint wrote:OU might be the team I am least afraid of in the whole field. I love watching Young and he is super talented. But if your team's profile is that you are over-reliant on one player, and that one player is a guard, and that guard is not overly physical, turnover prone and highly dependent on jacking up threes, I would really like our chances in that game.


This. Young also disappears (or at least goes cold) when he gets frustrated. I'm pretty confident URI's guard D can accomplish that.



He's also very turnover prone because he forces a lot of passes and we are excellent at getting our hands on risky passes!

Loyola then Oklahoma would be a preferable first weekend.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Seawrightspostgame » 2 weeks ago

What are the Bonnies chances of an At-Large if URI sweeps everything?

Anybody see a path for them?

I think Adams has the cache that you need as a bubble team. People want to include him and see him play. Their OOC isn't terrible.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhodymob05 » 2 weeks ago

If they win out including a win vs rhody, then they have a shot. In my opinion.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby steviep123 » 2 weeks ago

Seawrightspostgame wrote:What are the Bonnies chances of an At-Large if URI sweeps everything?

Anybody see a path for them?

I think Adams has the cache that you need as a bubble team. People want to include him and see him play. Their OOC isn't terrible.


In my opinion, SBU probably needs to win out the regular season (which will include a home victory vs. us), and then get to at least the A10 semis, probably the finals. And then it's still a huge question mark.

Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby URI96 » 2 weeks ago

Bonnies beat Syracuse on the road and Maryland on a neutral site. That has to be worth something.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby RhowdyRam02 » 2 weeks ago

steviep123 wrote:Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.


Right now St. Bonaventure is 10-15 spots worse than we were in the kenpom immediately after the Fordham loss.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby URI'21 » 2 weeks ago

TruePoint mentioned this in another thread, but if the Bonnies win out the regular season (but lose to us) their RPI will be hovering around 30. Considering they are still in the bubble picture now, I think an at large is definitely possible for them even with a loss to us. Also - a few wins in the A10 tourney could boost them too
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhodymob05 » 2 weeks ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:
steviep123 wrote:Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.


Right now St. Bonaventure is 10-15 spots worse than we were in the kenpom immediately after the Fordham loss.


Thats uncomfortable to read.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody_JAM » 2 weeks ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:
steviep123 wrote:Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.


Right now St. Bonaventure is 10-15 spots worse than we were in the kenpom immediately after the Fordham loss.


We also had the Cincinnati win on a neutral court. Syracuse on the road is their best win (carries more name power than Buffalo IMO). I think the Cinci win carried a lot more weight than their Syracuse win to the selection committee.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby RamIt! » 2 weeks ago

URI96 wrote:Bonnies beat Syracuse on the road and Maryland on a neutral site. That has to be worth something.


St. Johns has wins over Nebraska, Nova & Duke... should they be in?
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby rhodysurf » 2 weeks ago

Rhody_JAM wrote:
RhowdyRam02 wrote:
steviep123 wrote:Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.


Right now St. Bonaventure is 10-15 spots worse than we were in the kenpom immediately after the Fordham loss.


We also had the Cincinnati win on a neutral court. Syracuse on the road is their best win (carries more name power than Buffalo IMO). I think the Cinci win carried a lot more weight than their Syracuse win to the selection committee.


Well yeah... Cincinnati was ranked in the top 15. Syracuse is unranked with RPI is 35, and KenPom is 45.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Beachcomber » 2 weeks ago

"St. Johns has wins over Nebraska, Nova & Duke... should they be in?"

Well, of course not - they'd pretty much have to win out and get to the the BE conference finals.

This only shows three things:

1. There is so much parity right now that on any given night, any team in the top 200 can beat another team in the top 200, regardless of ranking. Hard to do, but not impossible.

2. Big wins over top ranked teams is a factor of having the opportunity to play those games. If by virtue of your conference membership you are guaranteed 6-8 of these games each year, you'll win a few, just like St. John's has done.

3. If your conference is not in the cartel of 5 or the BE, getting even 2-3 of those games is really hard to do if you have to rely on getting them in your OOC schedule. It is a tribute to URI of how they set up their schedule to maximize those opportunities in a down year in the A-10
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Seawrightspostgame » 2 weeks ago

Well I know if they beat us the Bonnies have a much stronger shot at the At-Large bid. BUT I DONT WANT TO LOSE.

I'm wondering what their shot is if they don't win the finals and win all their other games without beating URI.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhodymob05 » 2 weeks ago

St. Johns is the new Syracuse. great wins , but man you can't lose 11 straight in conference.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby wpbrown8267 » 2 weeks ago

i think TP touched on this but in RPI Forecast i just ran it and if they won out except vs us, then lost in the A10 finals they would end with a RPI of 29 and a record 25-8 and SOS of 82
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby josephski » 2 weeks ago

Beachcomber wrote:"St. Johns has wins over Nebraska, Nova & Duke... should they be in?"

Well, of course not - they'd pretty much have to win out and get to the the BE conference finals.

This only shows three things:

1. There is so much parity right now that on any given night, any team in the top 200 can beat another team in the top 200, regardless of ranking. Hard to do, but not impossible.

2. Big wins over top ranked teams is a factor of having the opportunity to play those games. If by virtue of your conference membership you are guaranteed 6-8 of these games each year, you'll win a few, just like St. John's has done.

3. If your conference is not in the cartel of 5 or the BE, getting even 2-3 of those games is really hard to do if you have to rely on getting them in your OOC schedule. It is a tribute to URI of how they set up their schedule to maximize those opportunities in a down year in the A-10


St John's beat Duke and Nova in back to back games...I'm not sure you understand how difficult that is especially when they played Nova on the road. I don't think they should be in the tournament but you're definitely not giving St. Johns enough credit for those wins.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby rhodysurf » 2 weeks ago

josephski wrote:
Beachcomber wrote:"St. Johns has wins over Nebraska, Nova & Duke... should they be in?"

Well, of course not - they'd pretty much have to win out and get to the the BE conference finals.

This only shows three things:

1. There is so much parity right now that on any given night, any team in the top 200 can beat another team in the top 200, regardless of ranking. Hard to do, but not impossible.

2. Big wins over top ranked teams is a factor of having the opportunity to play those games. If by virtue of your conference membership you are guaranteed 6-8 of these games each year, you'll win a few, just like St. John's has done.

3. If your conference is not in the cartel of 5 or the BE, getting even 2-3 of those games is really hard to do if you have to rely on getting them in your OOC schedule. It is a tribute to URI of how they set up their schedule to maximize those opportunities in a down year in the A-10


St John's beat Duke and Nova in back to back games...I'm not sure you understand how difficult that is especially when they played Nova on the road. I don't think they should be in the tournament but you're definitely not giving St. Johns enough credit for those wins.


Dont forget Nova was down two players
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby reef » 2 weeks ago

I think if Bona win out and lose in A10 finals they would get in
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Beachcomber » 2 weeks ago

Josephski:

I didn't disparage St. John's or those wins, or somehow misundertand rare and difficult that is -- and I watched both games. I give St. John's tons of credit. But ... they are not an NCCA Tournament team. What they are is a team that has some talent (like scores of other teams) AND lots of opportunities to play top rated teams, and until this past week has generally played poorly. And so this week, at home, they played great and caught Duke off guard, and then played great against a Nova team missing two key players. Good for them. But no one should anoint them as NCAA worthy just because of this past week. They have those wins and little else at this point. Frankly, St. John's has sucked this year (I've watched parts or all of about 6 of their game this season)-- and yet, they got the opportunity, by virtue of conference membership, to play the #1 ranked team in the country. And they won - good for them.

But, for too long the NCAA Committee let into the Tournament teams that played a weak non-con schedule comprised mostly of home games (the Syracuse model) and then a "tough" conference schedule that gave them the opportunity to get a couple of wins against top rated teams in their own conference, so as to build their "resume." Result: lots of those teams got in with little better than .500 records overall, sometimes with losing conference records, but a few "signature" in-conference wins. Other teams with much better records, and without those opportunities, were left on the sidelines.

So, while what St. Johns' did this week was fun to see, and I'm always happy to see Duke lose, I stick by my conclusion that they'll have to do a hell of a lot more to even get into the conversation about the Tournament. And that URI so far has done a masterful job of maximizing its opportunities.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby theblueram » 2 weeks ago

There's talk of St Johns being a tournament team? at 12-13? Bwahaha
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhody83 » 2 weeks ago

wpbrown8267 wrote:i think TP touched on this but in RPI Forecast i just ran it and if they won out except vs us, then lost in the A10 finals they would end with a RPI of 29 and a record 25-8 and SOS of 82


I think if they only lose to Rhody (in the Finals too) they get in. 25-8 and 13-5. They would finish the seaseon on a 13-2 run only losing to a Top 20 team.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby NYGFan_Section208 » 2 weeks ago

Still think it's a one bid league unless someone else wins the A10T....
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby section(105) » 2 weeks ago

theblueram wrote:There's talk of St Johns being a tournament team? at 12-13? Bwahaha


........yes, there is a regional CYO tourney.....
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby RamIt! » 2 weeks ago

My argument is why is St Bonaventure even being talked about as a tourney team... if the Bonnies are, why aren't St. Johns. (I could care less if either get in, just an interesting topic)
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Rhodymob05 » 2 weeks ago

RamIt! wrote:My argument is why is St Bonaventure even being talked about as a tourney team... if the Bonnies are, why aren't St. Johns. (I could care less if either get in, just an interesting topic)
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St Johns lost ELEVEN games in a row. That’s why.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby reef » 2 weeks ago

Say good night to the Johnnies they are done
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby RhowdyRam02 » 2 weeks ago

This morning's bracket:

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

We are a 4th seed in San Diego taking on Buffalo

Virginia is the overall number one seed and they would take on UNC-Asheville, assuming Asheville wins their play in game
Seton Hall is a 7
Alabama is an 8
Nevada and Providence are 9's
Florida Gulf Coast is a 16

St. Bonaventure is 7th out
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby NYGFan_Section208 » 2 weeks ago

reef wrote:Say good night to the Johnnies they are done


Fun to watch them take on the big guys...but, yes....'done' unless they win the BET...just like 'bona....
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby RhowdyRam02 » 2 weeks ago

Bonaventure is lurking, a lot like we were last year. Depends on how weak the bubble is this year.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby Beachcomber » 2 weeks ago

Interesting article in ESPN today about Tournament seeding, with a mention of URI as a team to watch under the new standard:

"When the NCAA made its team-sheet changes last month, it separated out the three résumé metrics (strength of record, KPI and RPI) from the three team-strength metrics (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin ratings). The sheet then averages the ranks of the three résumé metrics from the ranks of the three team strength metrics and then averaged all six ranks together. What we don't yet know is how the committee will weigh these two types of metrics.

Should a team like Gonzaga or Wichita State (BPI: 9, SOR: 33) be ranked at all, that would suggest the committee could be considering team-strength metrics such as BPI or Sagarin ratings more than it had in the past.

Regardless of how it weighs the new metrics, the key signal from the NCAA is that it is preparing to move away from RPI. That's a positive for anyone hoping for a more accurate bracket, and it will help the committee avoid seeding flubs such as in 2016 with Oregon, which received a No. 1 seed while ranked fourth in RPI but 10th in SOR and 28th in BPI. Regarding RPI this year, one team to watch is Rhode Island, which ranks fifth in the old statistic but 15th in strength of record and 26th in BPI."
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ramster
Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby ramster » 1 week ago

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reef
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology

Postby reef » 1 week ago

Nice I think 4 is where we belong, if we win out could go as high as a 3 ?? If we lose again could drop as low as a 6 ?? I will be pissed with a 7, 8 or 9 ??
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