Bubble tracker 2017

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 7 years ago

We just have to overcome any and all odds to get to the dance.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:TP, actually if we have to win the A10T....I hope they don't.

I would rather play Davidson and Richmond.

However Dayton and VCU will take it seriously...they always do. Dayton hasn't won the A10T yet under Archie. And VCU? They win it, a lot.

Neither one of them will care if the A10 doesn't get 3 bids.

I don't think these favorites that lost tonight were throwing the game to do a favor for a league partner, I just think they felt comfortable and didn't care enough. It's too bad, but this is why these games we gave away earlier in the year matter. We've left ourselves very little wiggle room.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

We'll providence losing could help if we make it to the A10 finals.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Yeah PC wilts and loses 70-58.

They will likely fall to the top of the last 4 in.......maybe a play in game.......

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 7 years ago

Watching USC UCLA.

Listening to Bill Walton is cheering me up.
Hes my favorite commentator in sports.

Also, every time USC scores their bass player plays a lick it's pretty cool.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

Poor little URI will get screwed again and I can't stand it

brady1 · Unread post by **brady1** » 7 years ago

Wow why is it that everyone in the running for the CHICKEN LITTLE TROPHEY stays up late. USC losing is HUGE! A heck of a lot of people think no way both providence and marquette get in.
URI is in good shape here. A win today gets us ahead ill st and cuse. BEAT THE F'N bonnies. Off to Pitt this morning.

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

The most important games left on the bubble tracker are Middle Tennessee's games. They could steal a bid if they don't win the CUSA tournament. The Vandy game today has an outside shot at mattering. Like many have pointed out, a loss would be their 15th. They've played the second hardest schedule in the country, so maybe the committee will give them a pass, but nobody has lost 15 games and gone to the tournament.

At this point, URI would do well to win the tournament and take the decision away from the Committee.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

brady1 wrote:Wow why is it that everyone in the running for the CHICKEN LITTLE TROPHEY stays up late. USC losing is HUGE! A heck of a lot of people think no way both providence and marquette get in.
URI is in good shape here. A win today gets us ahead ill st and cuse. BEAT THE F'N bonnies. Off to Pitt this morning.

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!

100% agree. This isn't the old Rams. 5 in a row going into the A10 tournament. 8 of our last 10, 1 of which was a top 25 rpi win. Been in a must win situation the last 3 weeks and won. Whens the last time that happened? Not since the Ryan Center was built.

The potential games ahead are teams we have beat or can beat.

Against Bonnie's, Dayton, Davidson, VCU, GW, Richmond, and Mason we're 6-3, +36.

Stop living in fear. THESE ARE DIFFERENT RAMS.

LET'S FUCKING GO.

CTRamfan · Unread post by **CTRamfan** » 7 years ago

I think it's 50/50 with a win over the Bonnies, and a sure thing with a win over Dayton.
.....As of this morning, we are 7-7 against top 100 rpi teams. RPI has slid to 45 though.
.....I can't believe The Committee listens to all the network hype for their favorite sons. The networks are pure BS on how many teams are going from some of the conferences.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 7 years ago

RPI apparently doesn't matter anymore.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

Nice to see our top 100 wins at 7. If we beat the Bonnies and Dayton, we would have 3 top 25 wins and 9 top 100 wins. With a 23-9 record. I think we dance with that.

edit: ESPN has us with 8 top 100 wins this morning.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

Same as it has been since the Fordham loss. Must win out last 5 A10 Conference Games - check

Must at least go to finals of A10 Tournament which includes:
- beating St Bonaventure and
- Semi Final Win on Saturday against the winner of Davidson - Dayton

gorhody89 · Unread post by **gorhody89** » 7 years ago

GW, Davidson(x2), and George Mason cracking the top 100 is huge they need to stay there. It does look like the rpi top 100-110 are all teams that are done playing so the question is will Davidson and GM losing to VCU and Dayton knock them out of the top 100?

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

This is THE OFFICIAL RPI:

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi

All other RPI's are just rough guesses, with websites using their own formula. That link is the RPI the tournament selection committee will be using.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

gorhody89 wrote:GW, Davidson(x2), and George Mason cracking the top 100 is huge they need to stay there. It does look like the rpi top 100-110 are all teams that are done playing so the question is will Davidson and GM losing to VCU and Dayton knock them out of the top 100?

"In its current formulation, the index comprises a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%). The opponents' winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents both comprise the strength of schedule (SOS). Thus, the SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI calculation and is 2/3 its opponents' winning percentage and 1/3 its opponents' opponents' winning percentages."

With that in mind a loss to a top 25 team will probably help those RPI's more just by getting them on the schedule than a loss could hurt. A neutral loss doesn't hurt like a home loss would.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

GM is at 103......I think GW and Davidson will stay under 100. Good for us.

PeteRI · Unread post by **PeteRI** » 7 years ago

brady1 wrote:Wow why is it that everyone in the running for the CHICKEN LITTLE TROPHEY stays up late. USC losing is HUGE! A heck of a lot of people think no way both providence and marquette get in.
URI is in good shape here. A win today gets us ahead ill st and cuse. BEAT THE F'N bonnies. Off to Pitt this morning.

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!

Hope the weather doesn't screw up your travels. Just be sure to come home with at least two wins!!

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

Fourth to last in Vanderbilt plays #17 Florida at 7 on the SEC Network
Third to last in Kansas State plays #11 West Virginia at 9 on ESPN2
We're first out
Third out California plays #5 Oregon at 9
Bubble team TCU plays #23 Iowa State at 7 on ESPN2
Bubble team Xavier plays Creighton at 9 on FS1
Bubble team Indiana plays #24 Wisconsin at 6:30 on the Big 10 Network
Bubble team Georgia plays #8 Kentucky at 1 on the SEC Network
Bubble team Mississippi plays Arkansas at 9:25 on the SEC Network
Bubble team Middle Tennessee plays Texas-El Paso at 12:30 on CBS Sports
Bubble team Nevada plays Fresno State at 10 on CBS Sports

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Of all those games, I think TCU and Indiana will win......there's something fishy going on in the B12....and Wisconsin is a fraud.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

First game up is at 12:30 when bubble team Middle Tennessee plays Texas-El Paso on CBS Sports.

Middle Tennessee (27-4) – If not for a loss at sub-200 UTEP, the Blue Raiders would be close to a lock thanks to a 4-1 mark against the Top 100 and a great non-conference strength of schedule. They finished C-USA play at 17-1 and get a rematch with UTEP in the Conference USA semis. If they can get to the conference finals, I give them a solid chance.

This is a case where we want the bubble team to win their conference and get them out of the at large conversation.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

Next game up is at 1 when bubble team Georgia plays #8 Kentucky on the SEC Network.

Georgia (18-13) – Selfishly I’d love to see J.J. Frazier get the Bulldogs to the tournament, but that seems like a long shot thanks to a 1-8 mark against the Top 50 and no wins over surefire at-large teams. They probably need to win the SEC Tournament at this point, but a win over Kentucky on Friday would make things interesting.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

Non-bubble teams that we nonetheless need to win for any at-large hope that remains are off to good starts: SMU is easily in control over ECU at the half, 43-21; Middle Tennessee is up on UTEP early, 14-7.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 7 years ago

Well at least we can stop worrying about other bubble teams now. One way to get it done at this point, lets do it!

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

Yeah, disagree with that. I don't buy at all that it's auto bid or nothing.

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 7 years ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:Yeah, disagree with that. I don't buy at all that it's auto bid or nothing.

I concur, also just ran through RPI Wizzard wins vs Bonnes, Davidson, loss to VCU and we are at 37, thats a pretty good number.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

skwalk47 wrote:
RhowdyRam02 wrote:Yeah, disagree with that. I don't buy at all that it's auto bid or nothing.
I concur, also just ran through RPI Wizzard wins vs Bonnes, Davidson, loss to VCU and we are at 37, thats a pretty good number.

With a winning record against top 100 teams.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

TruePoint wrote:Non-bubble teams that we nonetheless need to win for any at-large hope that remains are off to good starts: SMU is easily in control over ECU at the half, 43-21; Middle Tennessee is up on UTEP early, 14-7.

Updating an earlier item, ECU made a valiant comeback in the second half, but ultimately fell 81-77. Middle Tennessee is pulling away from UTEP, up 79-53 with about 2 minutes to go.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 7 years ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:Yeah, disagree with that. I don't buy at all that it's auto bid or nothing.

I certainly hope you are correct!

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

At 6:30 bubble team Indiana plays #24 Wisconsin on the Big 10 Network.

Indiana (18-14) – There is still work to do for the Hoosiers, but Thursday’s blowout of Iowa was the first step in what they need to be a deep Big Ten Tournament run. Wins over Kansas and North Carolina are terrific, though they came with a healthy OG Anunoby. Overall, Indiana does have nine Top 100 victories. IU has to knock off Wisconsin on Friday to remain in the picture.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

At 7 fourth to last in Vanderbilt plays #17 Florida on the SEC Network.

Vanderbilt (18-14) – Vandy blew out Texas A&M to set up a matchup with Florida, who they’ve already beaten twice this year. They boast the nation’s toughest non-conference schedule, which coupled with five Top 40 wins gives them a compelling case. That said, a 20-point loss at Mizzou, as well as the 14 total losses are potential issues, but I find it hard to believe they’d be left out with another win over the Gators.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

Also at 7 bubble team TCU plays #23 Iowa State on ESPN2.

TCU (18-14) – The Horned Frogs took advantage of Josh Jackson’s absence to spring the upset of Kansas and get back into the bubble conversation. As it stands, they are just 3-10 against the Top 50 and 4-11 against the Top 100 with a trio of sub-100 losses. If they can make it three wins in three days by knocking off Iowa State, things could start to get interesting for Jamie Dixon’s club.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

At 9 third to last in Kansas State plays #11 West Virginia on ESPN2.

Kansas State (20-12) – Thursday’s game against Baylor was essentially a must-win for the Wildcats, and they came through with a critical victory. They now have three Top 25 wins but are just 6-10 against the Top 100, were recently blown out by 30 at Oklahoma, and have a less than impressive non-conference strength of schedule. K-State does boast strong KenPom numbers and would almost certainly be safe with a win over West Virginia in the semis.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

At 9 bubble team Xavier plays Creighton on FS1.

Xavier (21-12) – I’m not sure there was a bigger win on Thursday than Xavier’s victory over Butler. The Musketeers’ RPI is decent no sub-100 losses, but a poor record since losing Edmond Sumner to injury had doubt creeping in. They now have four wins against the RPI Top 40 with a good non-conference strength of schedule. They may not be in lock status quite yet, but I feel good about Xavier’s chances at this point.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

Also at 9 third out California plays #5 Oregon.

California (21-11) – The Bears held on to beat Utah to earn a trip to the Pac-12 Semi-Finals where they will get another crack at Oregon, who they seemed destined to beat just a few weeks ago. Cal blew a late lead in that game, and as a result they still have just one win over an at-large caliber team, which came against fellow bubbler USC by a single point.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

At 9:25 bubble team Mississippi plays Arkansas on the SEC Network.

Mississippi (20-12) – The Rebels beat South Carolina at home on Saturday to get into the bubble conversation. At this point they have just two Top 50 wins and a 3-12 mark against the Top 100, but the lack of sub-100 losses works in their favor. Still, they need to get to the SEC Final to have any shot at an at-large.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

At 10 bubble team Nevada plays Fresno State on CBS Sports.

Nevada (26-6) – On paper the seven Top 100 wins look nice, but a sweep of Boise State accounts for their only victories over Top 70 teams. In the end I don’t think the resume is strong enough to get an at-large, but I suppose winning out until the MWC Finals could make things interesting.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

Vandy beating Florida for the 3rd time, wow

urirx · Unread post by **urirx** » 7 years ago

Bubble tracking seems pretty easy to me at this point. The only teams on the bubble with games left to play are uri and Kstate. Cal and Houston are about to miss their shots for at large (though this gives uconn a chance for a run... again)

Who is the low hanging fruit. Cuse,Marquette, prov, wf, msu.

I had to move x,to locked up, and vandy even if they will have 15 loses.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

Houston losing to uconn was big, cal losing and k state just lost.

ElmCityRhody · Unread post by **ElmCityRhody** » 7 years ago

For reef

Bye bye bye k state bye bye

DanInAZ · Unread post by **DanInAZ** » 7 years ago

Thank you West Virginia!!

woodennickel1 · Unread post by **woodennickel1** » 7 years ago

ElmCityRhody wrote:For reef

Bye bye bye k state bye bye

Not sure K State is out they have 3 top 25 wins 6-11 against top 100

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 7 years ago

woodennickel1 wrote:
ElmCityRhody wrote:For reef

Bye bye bye k state bye bye

Not sure K State is out they have 3 top 25 wins 6-11 against top 100

URI has two top 25 wins and is 9-7 vs the top 100.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

If we go by bracketmatrix, every team that could catch us has now lost.

Thinking by that logic, we should feel safe with a win over Davidson. That would give us 23 wins and a mid 30's rpi. If that happens we can start to look at those bid stealing scenarios on Sunday:

I'm not sure how Nevada got into the "bid stealing" conversation. They have an SOS outside of 100, 0-1 vs top 50 (blown out by 18 against St Marys). Their 8-4 record against teams in the 51-100 category all comes against teams ranked 70-94. A loss would eliminate them. No shot they're an at large.

Middle Tennessee is probably a little closer thanks to 2 top 50 wins (though one is UNC Wilmington), but they have 3 losses outside of the top 100 and an SOS outside of 100. If they didn't win the CUSA tourney they'd add another loss outside of the top 100. Tough to see a team with 4 losses outside of the top 100, an SOS outside of the top 100, and an RPI in the mid 40's making it over us.

UConn winning the AAC or Bama winning the SEC would shrink the bubble though.

Or the most nightmarish of scenarios if Richmond wound up beating VCU and then us in the finals and taking away a spot while dealing us a loss.

If we find ourselves in any game on Sunday, we're capable of winning. That would make all this guesswork and my stress level go away though.

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 7 years ago

Saw Lunardi earlier. He still has K State in. He was asked what P5 teams are in trouble. He only mentioned USC. He did say that we and MTSU could "steal" a bid. He has no respect for us.
We had better win this thing.

DanInAZ · Unread post by **DanInAZ** » 7 years ago

I hope UConn doesn't win it's last two home games of the season. That would be so crappy. Thanks for removing Houston from the watch but please go away!

Come on Cincinnati!!!!!!!! You have done so much already but we need you one last time.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 7 years ago

ramfan85 wrote:Saw Lunardi earlier. He still has K State in. He was asked what P5 teams are in trouble. He only mentioned USC. He did say that we and MTSU could "steal" a bid. He has no respect for us.
We had better win this thing.

Rhody, despite winning, seems to be the only team among the last eight in and first eight out that has remained basically in the same spot per Lunardi. It as if there is a rule to keep URI just on the outside regardless of what happens. I am afraid Lunardi may only be following the MO of the NCAA - Do not let non power conference schools crash the party as you can screw them over with ever changing selection criteria.

urirx · Unread post by **urirx** » 7 years ago

ramfan85 wrote:Saw Lunardi earlier. He still has K State in. He was asked what P5 teams are in trouble. He only mentioned USC. He did say that we and MTSU could "steal" a bid. He has no respect for us.
We had better win this thing.

Lunardi is one voice who doesn't (thankfully) pick the teams, and has bosses who encourage him to support schools with ESPN contracts.
HE IS THE ST JOES RADIO VOICE OF COURSE HE HATES US!

All teams in the bubble conversation have warts, the committee picks what warts it wants to defend having in, and what warts it has out of their bracket. No one steals a bid unless they run through for an auto bid that could of gone to a team that was already "safely" in the field.

other then UConn doing something in Hartford (possible) we are the only team that can catch somebody. Do what we control, which is our game with Davidson.

Login • Register