Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

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Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ramster »

RPI forecast as of Jan 30th:
Davidson expected RPI 101.7
URI favored to win by .8 points with a 53% chance of winning

This is the toughest game remaining on the Rhody Conference schedule from among the last 10 A10 games

I'm jealous of any Rhody fans going to this game!!
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

ramster wrote:RPI forecast as of Jan 30th:
Davidson expected RPI 101.7
URI favored to win by .8 points with a 53% chance of winning

This is the toughest game remaining on the Rhody Conference schedule from among the last 10 A10 games

I'm jealous of any Rhody fans going to this game!!
VCU is the toughest game left. I don't care that it's home. VCU is the best team in the league.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

Billyboy78 wrote:
ramster wrote:RPI forecast as of Jan 30th:
Davidson expected RPI 101.7
URI favored to win by .8 points with a 53% chance of winning

This is the toughest game remaining on the Rhody Conference schedule from among the last 10 A10 games

I'm jealous of any Rhody fans going to this game!!
VCU is the toughest game left. I don't care that it's home. VCU is the best team in the league.
Hard to argue with that....
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ramster
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ramster »

Just basing the degree of difficulty of the Davidson game on RPI

URI favored by .8 with 53% chance of URI winning @ Davidson
URI is favored by 2.5 with 59% chance of winning @ home
URI favored by 1.6 with 56% chance of winning @ home

Of course all can and will change by the time the Dayton and VCU games are played

VCU lost @ Davidson already this year 69-63 and lost horribly @ Fordham 69-67

I could be convinced that VCU or Dayton could be our toughest remaining games but I think it is easy to underestimate the value of a win @ Davidson. Put in perspective RPI will give more value to a Davidson win Friday night than a VCU or Dayton win at URI.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by RhodyKyle »

ramster wrote:RPI forecast as of Jan 30th:
Davidson expected RPI 101.7
URI favored to win by .8 points with a 53% chance of winning

This is the toughest game remaining on the Rhody Conference schedule from among the last 10 A10 games

I'm jealous of any Rhody fans going to this game!!

KenPom actually has URI losing 72-71 with only a 49% chance of winning. Of course, that could all change based on how URI plays against GW and Davidson plays at St Joe's (KenPom has that game as a 50/50 pick 'em but a score of 71-70 favoring Davidson).
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ramster »

RhodyKyle wrote:
ramster wrote:RPI forecast as of Jan 30th:
Davidson expected RPI 101.7
URI favored to win by .8 points with a 53% chance of winning

This is the toughest game remaining on the Rhody Conference schedule from among the last 10 A10 games

I'm jealous of any Rhody fans going to this game!!

KenPom actually has URI losing 72-71 with only a 49% chance of winning. Of course, that could all change based on how URI plays against GW and Davidson plays at St Joe's (KenPom has that game as a 50/50 pick 'em but a score of 71-70 favoring Davidson).
I'm not surprised. Davidson has the #1 and #2 top scorers in the A10. Can we hold down Gibbs and Aldridge defensively enough to escape with a win?
This is a very key game for URI. Could be a real confidence builder or just feed the "we can't beat a good time on the road" mantra.
I'd want to be at this game more than the Dayton or VCU games to be honest.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Rhody15 »

How does any metric continue to favor us on the road against average/above average teams? We have shown absolutey ZERO reason to be favored in these types of games.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by PeterRamTime »

Will we come out aggressive? Will we make layups? Will we make second half adjustments and finally find a way to win on the road against a good team?
It's bound to happen at some point this year!
I feel like if we could just win one of these tough road games it'll fix a lot of our problems.
Of course playing @ UMass is always difficult for us.
Haven't won there since 2009.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by reef »

I think we will be dogs in this game by about 3 or so, very tough game
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by hrstrat57 »

Forget RPI and any of the other nonsense.

VCU is our toughest remaining game....and it isn't even close.

We will need that game in the win column to be considered for at large bid. We will also need to reach the tourney finals assuming we suffer 1 more regular season loss. A win at Davidson will keep us in play that is all.

All else is fantasy....but it is doable.

Make contested layups. Win.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ramster »

hrstrat57 wrote:Forget RPI and any of the other nonsense.

VCU is our toughest remaining game....and it isn't even close.

We will need that game in the win column to be considered for at large bid. We will also need to reach the tourney finals assuming we suffer 1 more regular season loss. A win at Davidson will keep us in play that is all.

All else is fantasy....but it is doable.

Make contested layups. Win.
your opinion
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by RoadyJay »

Davidson is 12-8 overall and 5-4 in the A10. Their current RPI is 112 however kenpom has them at 68! Their best win came just two weeks ago at home against VCU. The rest of their wins are against 130+ ranked teams, per kenpom. This will be the second straight team we have faced that is on a 3 game win streak. They beat Duquesne at home and then downed two tough teams on the road in Fordham and St. Joes.

Don’t let their mediocre record fool you, Davidson has been very good at both ends of the court. They have a top 75 offense and a top 90 defense.

On offense Davidson shoots a high volume of threes. Most nights they get up 30 or more 3 pointers. Over 38% of their points comes from beyond the arc. One of the keys for us to beat Davidson will be to keep them under 30% from three.

This is not a very good offensive rebounding team so we should dominate the glass and avoid second chance points. They also do not get to the FT line often, but when they do they are deadly. They are 11th in the country in FT%. We must avoid dumb fouls!

Their 2 point FG defense is elite. They are holding opponents to just 43% from inside the 3 point line. We want our 2 point FG% to be above 45% as Davidson is 0-5 when their opponents succeed inside the arc. Hass and KI will need to be at their best offensively. We need to continue to attack the basket.

If we can establish an inside game then the 3 ball will be there. Davidson’s 3 point defense is poor. Opponents are making over 41% of their 3s against them since the start of conference play. That’s good for dead last in the A10.

Both teams take good care of the basketball so I wouldn’t expect much aggressive pressure on either side. However, we do typically come out flat on the road so showing some early pressure could be one way to avoid that and get the guys going.

Here are your likely Davidson starters:
#23 Peyton ALDRIDGE 6’8 225 Junior F
#12 Jack GIBBS 6’0 195 Senior G
#22 Will MAGARITY 6’11 240 Junior F
#20 KiShawn PRITCHETT 6’6 230 Freshman G
#3 Jon Axel GUDMUNDSSON 6’4 190 Freshman G

As others have already mentioned… this is a two-man team. It’s the Gibbs and Aldridge show. Aldridge is averaging 22.7 ppg along with 8.7 rpg since the start of conference play. He is also shooting it from three at 46%. So who’s gonna stop him is the question? It will be a very tall task for KI.

Gibbs is averaging just over 20 ppg and just over 38% from three.

Magarity and Gudmundsson are both good second level players averaging 8.9 and 8.4 ppg respectively.

Link to Davidson’s A10 stats: http://static.davidsonwildcats.com/cust ... 10Only.pdf
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by section(105) »

......hope Kevin gets a larger TV than just the regular ones in the Channel Lounge.......maybe if his renovated upstairs function room will be the viewing venue......
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Wow, great scout RhodyJay! You're way more than just a sign guy!
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by spookydog »

ATPTourFan wrote:Wow, great scout RhodyJay! You're way more than just a sign guy!
Yeah, he is Santa too.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Rhodymob05 »

I'm a little nervous about their height. Has and Iverson don't do well with big bodies clogging the paint.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by BPR2010 »

Jon Axel Gudmundsson might be the best name in sports sans Jim Bob Cooter or Pancake Thomas (plays at Hartford)...
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by FroggyTheFan »

BPR2010 wrote:Jon Axel Gudmundsson might be the best name in sports sans Jim Bob Cooter or Pancake Thomas (plays at Hartford)...
"Snacks" Harrison is my favorite :lol:
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by josephski »

Have to find a way to win the game. A loss here and an at large is most likely out of the question. We have eight games remaining after Davidson with four on the road and three out of the four home games against the highest kenpom ranked teams in the a10 other than us. Can't put ourselves in a situation where we need to finish the year 7-1.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by hrstrat57 »

Good write up RJ

Dis game iz yoooooooooog!!!
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by PeterRamTime »

Davidson has also taken UNC and Kansas down to the wire.
We really need our vaunted defense to return in this one.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by section(105) »

PeterRamTime wrote:Davidson has also taken UNC and Kansas down to the wire.
We really need our vaunted defense to return in this one.
......ya mean the zone....?
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by KMar970 »

little off topic but watching the vcu richmond game right now--who do we want to win? VCU since we still play them?
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rambone 78
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by rambone 78 »

VCU....I think they will win it but close right now.....

However Richmond could end up in the top 4 by A10T time......if they win this game tonight they have to be considered a dark horse.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by RhodyKyle »

Here are the raw numbers behind RJ's write-up (for those interested). What sticks out to me is Davidson's mediocre rebounding and their 3-pt defense. Could be areas URI exploits.
Attachments
URI v Davidson 2.jpg
URI v Davidson 1.jpg
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Shinze88 »

I fear this game is a just a bad matchup for us, forget numbers, I've seen Davidson play a few times this year and they will be tough to beat especially at their place. We've folded badly when faced with tough challenges and we are playing on the road against a guard who will FEAST on the overplay defense we'll throw at them. We will get dribble drived to death and this team also values the ball (as most well coached teams do), this could be a long night for the Rams based on what I've seen from both teams, not a good matchup at all,and they will certainly have an advantage on the sideline. Hope I'm wrong but nothing I've seen suggest this will end any other way but bad for us.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by reef »

Based on our recent road struggles I pick Davidson 74-68
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ramster
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ramster »

Nicely puts the records of each team beside one another:
Both teams have won 4 of their last 5 games..........

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk/ ... =INSSPBD10
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Rhodymob05 »

I think if we come out the locker room hitting shots then we can win. LaSalle and Richmond games at one thing in common more than anything, it was how they played in the first 5 minutes.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by rambone 78 »

I'm concerned more with Aldridge than Gibbs.......he's the type that will have a huge day against us......

We have to hope either he or Gibbs has an off night.....but whenever we're on the road, other teams' best players always seem to go off on us.

We have to play with a sense of urgency......we're running out of mulligans.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ElmCityRhody »

I am confident we get the win on friday.

time to put the big boy pants on and earn a tough road victory.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by section(105) »

.....no more Mulligans.......tee it up from the blue tees......straight down the middle.....
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Rhody Guy »

I feel like every time someone is "Confident that we will win" we end up losing. Call me superstitious but I have a bad feeling now. Thanks ECR lol.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Rhodymob05 »

Rhody Guy wrote:I feel like every time someone is "Confident that we will win" we end up losing. Call me superstitious but I have a bad feeling now. Thanks ECR lol.
Why is this so true lol
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ramster
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ramster »

Vegas spread is out....

Davidson favored by 1 point

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-bas ... las-vegas/
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Anyone going to George's to watch the game?

Viewing Party at George's of Galilee
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Rhody15 »

How the HELL can ANYONE be confident in us winning a road game against a legitimate opponent? You can say whatever you want and do all the number crunching there is, but there is nothing this team has done that can make any of us confident in winning tomorrow.

Now can we win? Yes of course we can win.

But I don't see what this team has done that can make us confident in winning tomorrow.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ramster »

Rhody15 wrote:How the HELL can ANYONE be confident in us winning a road game against a legitimate opponent? You can say whatever you want and do all the number crunching there is, but there is nothing this team has done that can make any of us confident in winning tomorrow.

Now can we win? Yes of course we can win.

But I don't see what this team has done that can make us confident in winning tomorrow.
100% agree. I will be more surprised if we beat Davidson at Davidson than I will be if we beat Dayton or VCU on our home court. The Vegas odds will reflect that too. Friday nights game is huge in importance and a very difficult win.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by rambone 78 »

ramster, at home we stand pretty tall, a definite NCAAT caliber team overall.....

On the road we are pipsqueaks.....much closer to the bottom of the A10 than the top.....

Until we prove that we can beat somebody decent on the road....we aren't going anywhere but the NIT......and people who think we can beat VCU and Dayton on a neutral court in the A10 tourney are sniffing some of the good stuff....actually Dayton will have a quasi home court advantage in Pittsburgh, they aren't that far away from home and their fans travel well.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

Big games. This is the stretch. Can URI play great down the stretch?

I would like to know where Jarvis stands. I love Dowtin, but it takes more than him to go as far as URI has to go.

Pressing all 40 minutes and unleashing the second team is awesome.

I really feel like this team finally found an identity. Feel like Dan has tried/learned some things. This is getting interesting.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by rhodysurf »

Curious how the defense stacks up tomorrow, stretch fours really have been URI's kryptonite and schoochie tore them apart and those are the two things Davidson has going for them on offense.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by URI2006_Andy »

I agree stretch 4s have been a problem. I would go small on Aldridge, make them go inside and keep KI out of foul trouble. Prefer Thompson but maybe EC if he's focused on keeping Aldridge from shooting.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by rambone 78 »

EC on Aldridge? Do you want him to go for 40?
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by bigappleram »

Yeah not sure what that EC comment is all about...we need to hide EC on their worst offensive player, not one of their best. EC is probably one of our worst defensive players. You have to throw KI at Aldridge and hope he can stay out of foul trouble and contain him.
Gibbs is difficult as well - IMO we should see lots of CT and Stan on him, moreso than Dowtin. The only way they can beat us is if Aldridge and Gibbs go for 25+ each, that is definitely possible, but I like our chances if we can hold either below their averages. They are a two man team with some role players.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by eli#10 »

Totally agree with BAR. Would not mind seeing Stan on Aldridge part of the time. Need to keep KI and Hass out of foul trouble. Also need to get Hass the ball down low where his lefty hook shot cannot be stopped. Please no one commit a foul 30 feet from the basket.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by ramster »

4 have Davidson favored by 2 points while 2 have Davidson by 2.5 points

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-bas ... las-vegas/
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by PlayMikeMotenMore »

Davidson 75
Danny's Boys 61
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by reef »

Until we prove we can beat a decent team on the road I go with Davidson too
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by URI2006_Andy »

bigappleram wrote:Yeah not sure what that EC comment is all about...we need to hide EC on their worst offensive player, not one of their best. EC is probably one of our worst defensive players. You have to throw KI at Aldridge and hope he can stay out of foul trouble and contain him.
Gibbs is difficult as well - IMO we should see lots of CT and Stan on him, moreso than Dowtin. The only way they can beat us is if Aldridge and Gibbs go for 25+ each, that is definitely possible, but I like our chances if we can hold either below their averages. They are a two man team with some role players.
Personally, I'd start Thompson over Dowtin and put Thompson on Aldridge and Terrell on Gibbs. But given our starting 5, our options are:

1. Martin on Aldridge which takes Martin away from the basket and Martin will want to leave Aldridge when he goes for blocks. Will result in offensive rebounds and 3s for Aldridge.

2. Iverson on Aldridge which is what we've tried in the past against good 4s and it hasn't worked. With road officiating, KI will have 2 fouls before the jump ball.

3. Terrell and Dowtin are too small to guard Aldridge.

So that leaves EC. His problem is guys dribbling by him. So maybe putting him on a bigger guy may work. Let them post Aldridge up. Takes the lane away from Gibbs and keeps Aldridge from making 3s.
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Re: Game 22: @ Davidson Friday Feb 3, 7:00pm ESPN2

Unread post by scine20 »

Rhode Island might very well win. But anyone putting money on Rhode Island tonight is nuts.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that URI under Dan Hurley has lost this exact type of game literally every time since Hurley's been the coach. Big resume game on the road against a fairly solid team with a good coach.

To me it would be a mild shocker if Rhode Island wins tonight.
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