Free Throw Rate

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RoadyJay
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Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

Dean Oliver is considered the godfather of basketball analytics. He is also known as the Bill James of basketball. Anyway, he invented what he refers to as the “Four Factors of Basketball Success".

They are:
-Effective Field Goal %
-Turnover %
-Rebounding
-Free Throws per Field Goal Attempt (Free Throw Rate)

I've listed the Four Factors in order of importance. The factor I am focused on here is the last one. It may be considered the least important of the four factors but it's still very important.

Free Throw Rate (FTR) is the ratio of foul shots to field goal attempts, expressed as FTA/FGA. As of this morning, our Free Throw Rate is 36.8%, meaning that for every 100 shots from the field, we are taking just under 37 free throws.

What I noticed is that FTR has been a very important determinant in the outcome of our games. Consider this:
-In games where our FTR was above 30 we are 11-1
-In games where our FTR was above 40 we are 7-0
-In games where our FTR was below 30 we are 1-6

So what does this mean? It means that one of our focuses should be to get to the free throw line more. How do you do that?
-Since about 90% of all shooting fouls occur in the paint we need to get more shots in the paint. Attack the basket
-Power up through the contact. Too many times we try to avoid contact on shots at the rim. We should be initiating the contact and try to get fouled!

A higher FTR also has the added benefit of getting the other team in foul trouble.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RhowdyRam02 »

-Power up through the contact. Too many times we try to avoid contact on shots at the rim. We should be initiating the contact and try to get fouled!

A higher FTR also has the added benefit of getting the other team in foul trouble.

I think this was a huge issue, both against La Salle and last night. In the La Salle game it seemed like EC was trying to set the Guinness record for furthest away from the basket while simultaneously the most horizontal a player has ever been while still making a layup. Last night, it felt like the whole team was trying circus plays against a small interior. Go up strong and see what happens. Who knows, maybe we would have gotten Cline in foul trouble that way and not been killed by him offensively.
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rambone 78
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by rambone 78 »

There are drills coaches use to make guys "go up strong" at the rim.....

Do we practice them?

Making uncontested layups in practice does nothing...you have to simulate game conditions.

As for FT rate, what does it matter if you can't make them?
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by section(105) »

......it is sometimes said that the free throw missed early in the game is no different from the one missed later.....I would agree the one missed later in specific game, score, clock situations is vastly more important.....late game last nite, we were under ten down, had two free throws, missed both(EC?).....if made both and then continued to set up and execute the effective press got a steal and scored......different game?......maybe.....for me the when free throws are made/missed is more important than the stat rate......
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by Gonebarongone »

RoadyJay wrote:Dean Oliver is considered the godfather of basketball analytics. He is also known as the Bill James of basketball. Anyway, he invented what he refers to as the “Four Factors of Basketball Success".

They are:
-Effective Field Goal %
-Turnover %
-Rebounding
-Free Throws per Field Goal Attempt (Free Throw Rate)

I've listed the Four Factors in order of importance. The factor I am focused on here is the last one. It may be considered the least important of the four factors but it's still very important.

Free Throw Rate (FTR) is the ratio of foul shots to field goal attempts, expressed as FTA/FGA. As of this morning, our Free Throw Rate is 36.8%, meaning that for every 100 shots from the field, we are taking just under 37 free throws.

What I noticed is that FTR has been a very important determinant in the outcome of our games. Consider this:
-In games where our FTR was above 30 we are 11-1
-In games where our FTR was above 40 we are 7-0
-In games where our FTR was below 30 we are 1-6

So what does this mean? It means that one of our focuses should be to get to the free throw line more. How do you do that?
-Since about 90% of all shooting fouls occur in the paint we need to get more shots in the paint. Attack the basket
-Power up through the contact. Too many times we try to avoid contact on shots at the rim. We should be initiating the contact and try to get fouled!

A higher FTR also has the added benefit of getting the other team in foul trouble.
Cool post. I love this stuff. I haven't looked but I am guessing there is a strong correlation between those games we were below 30 (other than LaSalle I guess) and the defensive efficiency of those seven teams. Those coaches know the same thing. Don't let Rhody attack. Don't let Rhody get to the rim. So they game plan for that and turn us into a jump shooting team. I think it's not a mind set thing but a lack of adjustments. I still don't get why this team doesn't play faster.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

You can also look at Free Throw Rate (FTR) from a defensive perspective. Meaning, how good are our opponents at getting to the free throw line against us. Our opponents are VERY good at this. Or said another way... We foul a lot!! We already knew that though.

Our opponents FTR is 46.6. This ranks 332nd out of 351 teams in D1. That's not good. So for every 100 shots from the field, our opponents are taking just over 46 free throws. La Salle was masterful against us in this regard. Their FTR against us was 91.1. They took 45 shots from the field while attempting 41 free throws. Richmond, Houston, Dayton, Providence, and Valpo also had high FTRs. See where I'm going with this?

-In games where our opponent's FTR was under 43 we are 8-1
-In games where our opponent's FTR was over 43 we are 4-6
-In games where our opponent's FTR was over 50 we are 1-4

In the majority of our losses we have not done a very good job of limiting guard penetration. How many times have you seen one of our guards get beat and either they try to recover and foul or a help defender comes in and fouls? Many, many times I've seen that.

We must get better at defending without fouling. What's one way to do this? Play more zone. Due to a combination of factors, players simply don’t foul as much while playing in a zone defense. We don't have to play zone for 40 minutes but we have to make adjustments during the game when we are getting dominated by being in man. The Richmond game was not a poor defensive performance but they did kill us by attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. Their FT% wasn't great but they still made 23 FTs. We made 8 FTs. That's the ballgame right there. We also had five guys with 4 fouls.

I think this coach and coaching staff really needs to sit down and consider major adjustments to our style of play on both ends of the floor. A few things I'd like to see:
-More of a concerted effort to get shots in the paint and get to the FT line
-More zone to keep teams off balance and limit the fouling
-More full court pressure (1-2-1-1, Man, etc.) throughout the game and not just when we are in desperation mode
Last edited by RoadyJay 7 years ago, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

rambone 78 wrote:
As for FT rate, what does it matter if you can't make them?
It matters!!

The more you get to the line the more you will make.

A team that averages 40 shots per game would shoot roughly 15 foul shots per game, on average. Shooting 60% from the line, that is 9 points. Improving free throw accuracy to 70% results in 10.5 points per game from the line. An increase of 10% in FT% nets 1.5 additional points per game.

If the same team increased its Free Throw Rate to 50%, that would result in 20 free throws per game, on average. Shooting the same 60% from the line would result in 12 points – a 3 point improvement, twice as much as increasing free throw accuracy by 10%.

Case in point is Richmond last night. They didn't shoot their FTs very well... only 62%. But they shot 37 FTs which translated into 23 points!

It also has the added benefit, that I already mentioned, of getting the opponent into foul trouble. How many times has one of our better players had to sit for significant minutes because of foul trouble. We should be flipping the script on this and be the ones getting their guys into foul trouble. It's one of the reasons why we were able to come back and beat UMass.

It matters!!
Last edited by RoadyJay 7 years ago, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by ElmCityRhody »

I have been complaining about this for 2 years now

what a joke

get it together

so pissed off at our team right now

playing way below our potential
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by BPR2010 »

You couldn't be more on point with that Jay. I've found that after those 2 early A-10 games where we caught fire from 3, we've fallen in love with the jump shot. You don't get foul calls that way, period. Also, the opposing effects of going to the line a lot is making the other team dig deep into their bench, which I honestly don't see any teams (outside of Dayton) in the conference having much of in the way of quality depth. We avoid contact at all costs at the rim, and alter our shots for no reason. Sure, some will get blocked, but more will be called and teams that are more aggressive to the rim typically get the benefit of the doubt with officiating.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by UCH21377 »

Gonebarongone wrote:
RoadyJay wrote:Dean Oliver is considered the godfather of basketball analytics. He is also known as the Bill James of basketball. Anyway, he invented what he refers to as the “Four Factors of Basketball Success".

They are:
-Effective Field Goal %
-Turnover %
-Rebounding
-Free Throws per Field Goal Attempt (Free Throw Rate)

I've listed the Four Factors in order of importance. The factor I am focused on here is the last one. It may be considered the least important of the four factors but it's still very important.

Free Throw Rate (FTR) is the ratio of foul shots to field goal attempts, expressed as FTA/FGA. As of this morning, our Free Throw Rate is 36.8%, meaning that for every 100 shots from the field, we are taking just under 37 free throws.

What I noticed is that FTR has been a very important determinant in the outcome of our games. Consider this:
-In games where our FTR was above 30 we are 11-1
-In games where our FTR was above 40 we are 7-0
-In games where our FTR was below 30 we are 1-6

So what does this mean? It means that one of our focuses should be to get to the free throw line more. How do you do that?
-Since about 90% of all shooting fouls occur in the paint we need to get more shots in the paint. Attack the basket
-Power up through the contact. Too many times we try to avoid contact on shots at the rim. We should be initiating the contact and try to get fouled!

A higher FTR also has the added benefit of getting the other team in foul trouble.
Cool post. I love this stuff. I haven't looked but I am guessing there is a strong correlation between those games we were below 30 (other than LaSalle I guess) and the defensive efficiency of those seven teams. Those coaches know the same thing. Don't let Rhody attack. Don't let Rhody get to the rim. So they game plan for that and turn us into a jump shooting team. I think it's not a mind set thing but a lack of adjustments. I still don't get why this team doesn't play faster.

Why doesn't this team play faster? Hell of a question!!! Most everyone has been asking all year for this. We are built to play fast, yet we play slow. This team is extremely frustrating on many levels.
Last edited by UCH21377 7 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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rambone 78
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by rambone 78 »

This is all excellent coaching advice.

Sometime it seems as if some on this board could do a better job of in-game coaching, than the guy to whom URI pays a million a year.

If we can see these things, why can't the staff?
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by Rhody15 »

rambone 78 wrote:This is all excellent coaching advice.

Sometime it seems as if some on this board could do a better job of in-game coaching, than the guy to whom URI pays a million a year.

If we can see these things, why can't the staff?

Out of all the ridiculous stuff you post on here, saying people on this board could be a better in game coach than ANY Division 1 coach is just an ignorant, ignorant statement, and honestly makes you look like one of the most uninformed basketball fans in the country.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by rambone 78 »

I was being sarcastic, 15....and there's nothing ignorant about it.

people on this board are pretty knowlegable about basketball....and some have coached at lower levels.....

just a slight overreaction, perhaps?
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by The Dude »

If they improve their ability to make Free Throws the stat will become less relevant. If they could just make the ones they take, they'd win a lot more games as well.
I mean what would the trade off be? If the idea is for the team to be more aggressive in the paint, so they can get to the line more, their free throw percentage is not all that good (56.1% in conference play). This means just to get 10 more points they would have to go to the line 9 - 18 "additional" times (depends on whether it's a 1 & 1 or 2 shot foul and whether or not they even make the 1st shot on a 1 to 1). I think that's a lot to ask and at what expense? At the expense of taking 3 points shots (38.4% in conference)? It would take 10 - 11 3 pt shots to get an 10 extra points according to the statistic. Different opponents will also require a different approach. If a team has great shot blockers, but poor 3 point defense, should they still drive to basket in hopes of drawing a foul? There's a lot of variables.

In the UMass game, Umass was all over our guys and there were a ton of fouls that could've been called on UMass in addition to the ones they already had, but the officials didn't call them. There were plenty of times when guys got hacked while putting up a shot in the paint or had two hands on a ball handler. There is not guarantee the officials are going to keep calling a ton of fouls either. We've all seen how odd they get about keeping the fouls balanced. They'll call 6 fouls in a row, then the opposing coach complains and then they call 6 fouls on the other team in an attempt to make themselves look good. Meanwhile they swallow the whistle on others.

Personally, I think the "best" thing the team can do to better their situation is to practice, practice, practice free throws ad nauseam. The have better control over influencing the game. They don't have to hope for a call from an official, so they can get to the line more because they stink at free throws.
Last edited by The Dude 7 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by reef »

This FT shooting is horrendous
Dowtin you kidding me ??
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rambone 78
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by rambone 78 »

reef, it's the URI effect....this has been going on for MANY years...long before DH.....

we have almost NEVER been good at FT's as a team.....maybe a player or 2....see Jimmy B. but that's it.

Poor Dowtin....he probably was a good FT shooter in HS.....the poor FT shooting here has gone viral...they all are infected.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RIFan »

FT shooting is mostly confidence and mental toughness...that's why they hired a sport psychologist. I don't think whatever he has done worked, and I also think this is a symptom of the larger problem of a team with no swagger and not mentally tough.
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rambone 78
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Agreed RIFan...although earlier in the season it looked liked it was working.

Concentration....focusing on the rim.....not happening.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

I respectfully request that we not turn this thread into a discussion on FT accuracy.

This thread was started to discuss our ability to get to the FT line as well as our opponents ability to get to the FT line against us.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RIFan »

I agree that its about getting to the line...but isn't what happens when you get there just as important? It seems like that is only half the story...if you hit a high percentage you don't need to get there as often and vice versa...
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

I think the point is that good things happen when you get the ball in the paint. When you attack the basket.

The point is, regardless of what our FT accuracy is when we get to the FT line at a high rate we win those games.

Conversely we need to do a much better job on the defensive end in keeping opponents off the FT line. It's resulting in foul trouble for our key players and free points.

Yes, we need to shoot FTs at a higher percentage. But it's even more important that we get to the line more and keep our opponents off of it.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by josephski »

Our opponents attempted free throws come down to the fact that we foul a lot under Hurley. It's been that way every year he's been here. Our free throw attempts per game in conference are about the same as two years ago, not saying that's good or bad but I don't think our free throw attempts should be the main concern for us right now.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

-In games where our Free Throw Rate was above 30% we are 11-1
-In games where our Free Throw Rate was above 40% we are 7-0
-In games where our Free Throw Rate was below 30% we are 1-6

-In games where our opponent's Free Throw Rate was under 43% we are 8-1
-In games where our opponent's Free Throw Rate was over 43% we are 4-6
-In games where our opponent's Free Throw Rate was over 50% we are 1-4


It might not be a statistically significant sample size but it is meaningful. I don't think those numbers above are a fluke. Of course you have to do many other things to win but hard for me to ignore these numbers.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by josephski »

RoadyJay wrote:-In games where our Free Throw Rate was above 30% we are 11-1
-In games where our Free Throw Rate was above 40% we are 7-0
-In games where our Free Throw Rate was below 30% we are 1-6

-In games where our opponent's Free Throw Rate was under 43% we are 8-1
-In games where our opponent's Free Throw Rate was over 43% we are 4-6
-In games where our opponent's Free Throw Rate was over 50% we are 1-4


It might not be a statistically significant sample size but it is meaningful. I don't think those numbers above are a fluke. Of course you have to do many other things to win but hard for me to ignore these numbers.
My point was more that our opponents free throw rate is more significant than our free throw rate. I think it's more important for us to focus on fouling less and keeping our opponents off the free throw line than it is for us to get to the free throw line more. When we go under 30% and our opponent goes over 50% obviously that's going to be a large swing in points especially if our opponent is better at free throws...which in most cases they will be.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

I'm with you josephski..

In our three conference losses... La Salle (91.1), Richmond (68.5), and Dayton (53.1) all had Free Throw Rates of 50% and higher.

The word is out. How do you beat Rhode Island? Attack them, get the ball in the paint, drive aggressively to the basket, get them in foul trouble. You just can't allow teams to shoot 25-40 FTs per game.

You know who is one of the best in the conference at getting to the FT line? St. Bonaventure. They're 34th in the country and 2nd in the conference in this statistic. We can't afford to let these guys live on the FT line tomorrow.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

Bona shot 22 FTs on 61 FGs for a FT Rate of 36%. We are now 9-1 when our opponent has a FT Rate under 43%.

URI shot 22 FTs on 55 FGs for a FT Rate of 40%. We are now 8-0 when our FT Rate is at or above 40%.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

RhodyJay is our own KenPom
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

I can dream... JayPom
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

The "secret sauce" continued tonight...

GW shot 13 FTs on 53 FGs for a FT Rate of 25%. We are now 10-1 when our opponent has a FT Rate under 43%.

URI shot 20 FTs on 53 FGs for a FT Rate of 38%. We are now 13-1 when our FT Rate is above 30%


The whole point is we are very very good when we limit our fouls on defense. In the first half we committed too many dumb fouls. That meant we could not play the aggressive attacking style we wanted to play against a big team that can't handle the basketball.

In the 2nd half we did a much better job of limiting our fouls on defense and on offense we did a much better job of attacking the basket and getting to the line. We shot 14 FTs to their 7 FTs in the 2nd half. Ballgame!
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by josephski »

We also shot those free throws well which was huge. If we shot below 60% like we were previously shooting in conference play it could have been a different game.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

60% from the FT line would have meant 6 less points... Still a Rhody victory
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by josephski »

RoadyJay wrote:60% from the FT line would have meant 6 less points... Still a Rhody victory
We only shot 2 free throws once we took the lead with 5 min to go so 60% could have easily made a difference.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

We've shot 8 FTs on 30 FGs. That's a FT rate of 27%. We need to attack the basket more in the 2nd half.

Davidson 13 FTs on 27 FGs. That's a FT Rate of 48%. Too many fouls.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

FT rate for Davidson up to 57%. Not a good trend.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by UCH21377 »

how did it end up Jaypom?
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

UCH21377 wrote:how did it end up Jaypom?
Well... We certainly attacked more in the 2nd half. We shot 22 FTs in the 2nd half compared to 8 FTs in the first half!! That makes for a total of 30 FTs on 54 FGs for a FT rate of 55.5%. We are now 14-1 when our FT rate is above 30%

After Davidson had their FT rate up to 57% early in the 2nd half we did a much better job of defending without fouling. They finished with a 26 FTs on 54 FGs for a final FT rate of 48%. We are now 13-3 when our opponent's FT rate is under 48%.
Last edited by RoadyJay 7 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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rambone 78
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Well, when we're getting to the line a lot, we can afford [in most cases] to miss a few......like tonight.

Just don't do it in the last minute or two of a really close game please.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by eli#10 »

EC went 1 for 6. Absolutely unbelievable. I really do not understand how that can happen. It really boggles my mind but thank God it did not cost us THIS TIME.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by ramster »

eli#10 wrote:EC went 1 for 6. Absolutely unbelievable. I really do not understand how that can happen. It really boggles my mind but thank God it did not cost us THIS TIME.
But he did hit 4-6 on 3-pointers for 12 points. Maybe he needs to back up on the FT's :roll: :roll:
But he is a decent FT shooter, has a nice release, his FTs will be ok in the long run, 70% or so
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Free Throw Rate is NOT the same as Free Throw Percentage
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by UCH21377 »

I like this stat. But forget the stat itself. I think it is indicative of the type of game the team is playing. More aggressive on offense, attacking the rim, more free throws, kick outs, BETTER SHOTS AS A RESULT, win. Smarter D, moving your feet, less free throws for the other guys, AND TOUGHER SHOTS, win. That sure happened last night.
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

UCH21377 wrote:I like this stat. But forget the stat itself. I think it is indicative of the type of game the team is playing. More aggressive on offense, attacking the rim, more free throws, kick outs, BETTER SHOTS AS A RESULT, win. Smarter D, moving your feet, less free throws for the other guys, AND TOUGHER SHOTS, win. That sure happened last night.
UCH, you got it. That's EXACTLY the point of the stat.
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rambone 78
Frank Keaney
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by rambone 78 »

UCH and RJ, that's something that this team hasn't done much of on the road....until the last 10 minutes last night.

They have the recipe for success....now keep doing it....if they do it's a totally different ballgame.
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brady1
Art Stephenson
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by brady1 »

EC needs to start shooting his free throws Ding Toed.

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!
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RoadyJay
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

We shot a total of 35 FTs on 54 FGs for a FT rate of 64.8%. We are now 15-1 when our FT rate is above 30%. 10-0 when our FT rate is above 39%.
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reef
Frank Keaney
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by reef »

Dowtin as a guard needs to hit his free throws !!
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ATPTourFan
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Guys, this is a thread about correlation between Free Throw RATE to Rhody's wins/losses.

Free Throw Rate is not Free Throw Shooting %
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UCH21377
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by UCH21377 »

How did it go on D? We committed some pretty silly fouls at the end.
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RoadyJay
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RoadyJay »

UMass shot 34 FTs on 51 FGAs for a Free Throw Rate of 66.7%. Normally fouling at this rate would have resulted in a loss for us. However, UMass also fouled a lot too so the Free Throw Rates of each team essentially cancelled each other out.
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RhodyKyle
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Re: Free Throw Rate

Unread post by RhodyKyle »

I think last night's game could be an "outlier" in terms of free throw rate being an indicator of style of play. UMass began fouling quite early in the second half (1:45ish left in the game). That added 16 FT attempts (they fouled a URI player 8 times between 1:45 and the end of the game) with no FGA.

Overall, I agree wholeheartedly with RoadyJay and I find the KenPom site to be the best source of advanced metrics.
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