The Conference Road Ahead

Obadiah · Unread post by **Obadiah** » 7 years ago

OK, we finished the OOC schedule with a 8-4 mark, a record that disappointed most of us. While I was generally pleased with the quality of the OOC, I have two criticisms; first, not being able to secure another OOC home game was not good, a 9-4 mark would have helped; second, it's not only SOS that is important, but schedule sequencing is also very important. On this score, scheduling a tough road game just before and after the road test at PC was not smart. In contrast, PC bracketed our game with them with two home games with creampuffs; wiser scheduling IMHO.

Breaking down the 18 game A-10 schedule:

1. Ten critical games against the top tier - This segment includes eight games with four of our five home and home partners - St, Joe's, UMass, Dayton, and Davidson plus the single home games against VCU and GW. URI has a scheduling advantage given these contests are six home and four away.

We must come out of this grouping with an 8-2 record.

2. Avoid bad losses - here the most dangerous situations exist with road games against the lower level of conference - this includes five games against Saint Louis, Richmond, La Salle, Duquesne and George Mason. Next are the home games versus Fordham, La Salle, and St. Bonaventure.

Allowing one loss in this grouping gives URI a 7-1 result.

So if URI can get its act together in the A-10, then 15-3 is a realistic outcome. URI sweeping all nine A-10 games at Ryan is key to URI achieving that.

Obadiah · Unread post by **Obadiah** » 7 years ago

OK, if I'm right on this conference look, then my predicted winner of the contest will be BFC.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

15-3 imo is what it would take for an at large bid...wouldn't need to win the conference tourney.....good luck!

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 7 years ago

Expecting no more than three losses for an A-10 slate of 18 games seems unreasonable to me regardless of the fact that the league is not as strong as in the past. The two most likely outcomes to me are either 13-5 or 12-6. Neither would probably be enough to be at large worthy with our 8-4 OOC record. Just like close losses at Valpo, PC, and Houston we would come up a bit short yet again.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

RF1, that's what I'm expecting also......I just don't see a big turnaround.....still have the same coaching and player issues.

We'll beat a couple of the good teams and lose at least a couple we shouldn't......

10 losses will put us on the NIT bubble.......yippee yi yo ky ay.........

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 7 years ago

......the road ahead I see as bumpy one, as the result of the OOC games that raised more questions than answers to go into the conference schedule.....obviously the key to the conference scedule in the 15-3, 14-4 range is Martin; even with him I had thought we would be 14-4.....if I had to select one disappointment that lowers my confidence going forward would be the inconsistent offense production of the guards......I can live with a shortened bench.....it is all in our hands, just wn the next game......

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

105, we have no inside offensive production.......Hassan will help that when he gets back, but our outside shooting is awful......EC is the only starter making 3's, but even his shooting percentage on those is weak.......actually our bench shot them better against W&M.......

Face it, this isn't a good shooting team.......

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 7 years ago

Actually Terrell is our best 3 point shooting starter.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Adam, yes overall you're right.......JG is a puzzler though....really thought he was going to be great this season......

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 7 years ago

adam914 wrote:Actually Terrell is our best 3 point shooting starter.

Hes also deadly at the free throw area. I would like to see them ensure he gets a shot from that area every game off of a screen.

rhodywins · Unread post by **rhodywins** » 7 years ago

Unfortunately the only screens you will see at URI is on a window . It is hard to screen someone when you have four guards spread outside the three point arc and never move more than two feet until 5 seconds at left on the play clock.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

rhodywins, we do set screens....or we try to anyway....then we get called for "moving screens".......

Dan was a point guard......makes it hard to understand how he can't teach his players the basics of a half court offense......

hrstrat57 · Unread post by **hrstrat57** » 7 years ago

In fairness the hard picks you got away with a few years ago now are often fouls.....

It is a fine line.

Again no excuses, the rules apply to everyone but for a team trying to put in new plays with a lot of screens it isn't easy....working on defense in practice is easy drilling plays over and over and over and over is where the hard work begins. It's a lot more than just effort.

I saw some good stuff in the Houston game offensively. The next two games were focused on shutting the back door.

I still think we can dominate often in conference with this group on talent level.

STC · Unread post by **STC** » 7 years ago

URI is really going to have to dominate the A10 slate if they want any chance at an at-large bid in my opinion. As of now URI has one resume building win (Cincinnati). Because of that I think 14-4 in conference play is the cutoff for possible at-large.

Once you start getting into the possibility of 13-5 or worse you have to consider who are those five losses coming against? URI cannot afford any bad losses right now but URI also can't afford to blow anymore opportunities to get resume building wins against the top tier of the A10.

As for 14-4 being possible, the talent is definitely there and I picked 14-4 in the preseason. However, after watching this team for 12 games I have serious doubts about this still being achievable.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

I'll put the odds of going 14-4 or better at 25%....and I might be being a little kind at that number......

We'll know a lot more by the Dayton game.....actually St. Joes could be telling......

RoadyJay · Unread post by **RoadyJay** » 7 years ago

I ran various scenarios using the RPI Wizard for the remainder of the season. Of course, RPI isn’t the only criteria that the Selection Committee looks at but consider the following…

Between 2000-2015 only 9% of teams with a Top-50 RPI have NOT made the NCAA tournament. That’s only 70 teams or less than 5 teams per year that didn’t make the tournament with a Top 50 RPI. Most of the 70 teams that did not make the tournament finished with an RPI of 41-50. Still, 70% of teams that finished the season with an RPI of 41-50 made the tournament. You’re obviously in better shape if you finish with an RPI of 40 or better. For those teams that finished with an RPI of 31-40, 86% made it into the tournament. 97% of teams that finish with an RPI of 21-30 get in the tournament. No team with an RPI under 20 has ever missed making the tournament.

Right now our RPI is at 44. I’ve seen some research that shows the bubble RPI for non-power conferences is 44. Meaning, a RPI of 44 and you are likely in and a RPI of 45 and you are likely out.

Our expected RPI is 36, so we are at the point in the season that we shouldn’t see big fluctuations in our RPI. Hopefully, we just keep seeing it steadily come down into the 30s.

Here is the table of scnearios:

: at_large_bid.png (9.67 KiB) Viewed 1894 times

Here is what I glean from these numbers:
• Finishing the conference slate at 14-4 or better makes us just about an absolute lock to make the tournament. We don’t even have to worry about winning a single game in the A10 tournament. We are in!
• Finish 13-5 in conference play and win at least one in the A10 tournament and it also looks like our NCAA drought is over
• End up 12-6 in conference play and making it to the finals of the A10 tournament would give us a 31 RPI and it looks like we are in
• Finish 12-6 with only 1 A10 win or 13-5 with no A10 championship victories our RPI should be under 40. Still a good chance of getting in.
• Go 11-7 with any scenario of outcomes in the A10 championship and we likely still to finish with an RPI under 50. I just find it hard to believe that with these numbers the Selection Committee puts us in the tournament.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

RoadyJay,
Excellent analysis.
Of the teams that did not make the tournament with RPIs in the ranges that you provided does it look like a disproportionate number are from mid major and low major conferences? Did it look like being from a P5 or AAC or Big East make a difference over not being P5, AAC or Big East?

Just curious. Seems oftentimes the teams that get left out in these close situations tend to be Mid Majors.

Another factor that plays a big part is how you finished. If you finish conference weak and/or not do well in your cons tournament you can have a descent RPI but could be at a disadvantage to a team that finishes strong.

RoadyJay · Unread post by **RoadyJay** » 7 years ago

ramster wrote:RoadyJay,
Excellent analysis.
Of the teams that did not make the tournament with RPIs in the ranges that you provided does it look like a disproportionate number are from mid major and low major conferences? Did it look like being from a P5 or AAC or Big East make a difference over not being P5, AAC or Big East?

Ramster, the power conferences do have an advantage. 45 of the 70 teams that were left out of the tournament were from non-power conferences.

RoadyJay · Unread post by **RoadyJay** » 7 years ago

Also, only 3 of the 70 teams were from the A10:

St. Joe's - 2005-06
UMass - 2007-08
Rhode Island - 2009-10

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

RoadyJay wrote:
ramster wrote:RoadyJay,
Excellent analysis.
Of the teams that did not make the tournament with RPIs in the ranges that you provided does it look like a disproportionate number are from mid major and low major conferences? Did it look like being from a P5 or AAC or Big East make a difference over not being P5, AAC or Big East?
Ramster, the power conferences do have an advantage. 45 of the 70 teams that were left out of the tournament were from non-power conferences.

Thanks. That would be my fear if it's flip a coin time. Most important is to clearly be in the top 2-3 of the A10 at the end of the A10 Tournament.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

So if we go 12-6 in conf and finish 20-10 overall we will still have a sub 40 RPI ??

Seriously how many believe that ??

Poll please

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

reef, we might have a sub 40 rpi but we won't get a bid.....it's all about who you beat, and who you didn't beat......just like the 09-10 team......

And 20-10 would mean we didn't win enough games against the better teams.....or even if we did win a few against the top in conference...that record would mean we lost too many to mediocre or bad teams also......

see St. Bonnie last year...even with the Cincy win, not enough for us......

RoadyJay · Unread post by **RoadyJay** » 7 years ago

reef wrote:So if we go 12-6 in conf and finish 20-10 overall we will still have a sub 40 RPI ??

Seriously how many believe that ??

Poll please

RPI Forecast believes it:

: expectedrpi1227.jpg (27.59 KiB) Viewed 1763 times

Looks like ~75% chance of finishing with an RPI of 40 or better

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:RF1, that's what I'm expecting also......I just don't see a big turnaround.....still have the same coaching and player issues.

We'll beat a couple of the good teams and lose at least a couple we shouldn't......

10 losses will put us on the NIT bubble.......yippee yi yo ky ay.........

10 losses gives us an RPI of around 38 going into the conference tournament. If you meant NCAA bubble you're right, and if we win one game in the conference tournament we have a real shot at the dance. If you meant NIT bubble then get a clue.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Sorry, 12-6 won't get it done........we're not UCLA or Michigan State........a mid major, remember?

Maybe NCAA bubble...but on the wrong side of it for sure......

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 7 years ago

Thanks Rhody Jay for the breakdown. I would guess that most of the 70 teams with a 50 rpi that were left out lacked a quality top 25 win or had a deficient KenPom rating (like stb last year). We're solid on those two fronts as of now. The opportunity is there.

Obadiah · Unread post by **Obadiah** » 7 years ago

Here is a summary of the highest RPI teams snubbed for a NCAA invite:

.
Season	Snubbed Team          RPI
		                        	
2014-15	Colorado State	      29
2013-14	Southern Miss	      34
2012-13	Southern Miss	      31
2011-12	Marshall	      44
2010-11	Harvard	              35
2009-10	URI	              40
2008-09	San Diego State	      34
2007-08	Dayton	              30
2006-07	Air Force	      29

rhodyrudder · Unread post by **rhodyrudder** » 7 years ago

RoadyJay wrote:Also, only 3 of the 70 teams were from the A10:

St. Joe's - 2005-06
UMass - 2007-08
Rhode Island - 2009-10

Wasn't Bona 47 last year?

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 7 years ago

rhodyrudder wrote:
RoadyJay wrote:Also, only 3 of the 70 teams were from the A10:

St. Joe's - 2005-06
UMass - 2007-08
Rhode Island - 2009-10
Wasn't Bona 47 last year?

Yes, I remember them being ranked between 28 and 32 on selection Sunday. Then they lost to Wagner at home in the NIT which knocked their final rpi down. But their kenpom rating was in the 70s on selection Sunday.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

reef wrote:So if we go 12-6 in conf and finish 20-10 overall we will still have a sub 40 RPI ??

Seriously how many believe that ??

Poll please

that is not what he said

If go 12-6 and lose the first game of the A10 tournament the RPI is 46
If go 1-1 in A10 then RPI is 36
If go 2-1 in A10 then RPI is 31
All based on current RPI forecasting

Shows clearly the importance of the Conference Tournament

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

The A10 is down this year so I believe if we go 12-6 our RPI will take a major hit

Let's hope we do better than that though

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

RPI placed as of today has the A10 ranked the 7th best conference with OOC play about to conclude with today's action. 7th is the same as last year and the year before. It's been widely talked about how the A10 stinks this year on this board but I have not read,it elsewhere or seen it in the RPI standings.

UCH21377 · Unread post by **UCH21377** » 7 years ago

Ramster where does the WCC fit in? I'm curious. With Gonzaga, St Mary's both ranked, plus BYU, plus Santa Clara who knoocked off Valpo they must be pretty good.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

UCH21377 wrote:Ramster where does the WCC fit in? I'm curious. With Gonzaga, St Mary's both ranked, plus BYU, plus Santa Clara who knoocked off Valpo they must be pretty good.

WCC ranks as the 9th best Conference in both current RPI and Projected Season Ending RPI out of 32 Teams

A10 is ranked 7th in both current and Season Ending Conference RPI.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confrpi.html

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

ramster wrote:RPI placed as of today has the A10 ranked the 7th best conference with OOC play about to conclude with today's action. 7th is the same as last year and the year before. It's been widely talked about how the A10 stinks this year on this board but I have not read,it elsewhere or seen it in the RPI standings.

To add to this, the A10 appears to lack a truly dominant team this season (at least to this point) but it has eight teams (URI, Dayton, VCU, Davidson, Bonnies, Joes, LaSalle and UMass) that are top-100 RPI teams and all are projected to finish as top-100 teams. Last season, the conference had only five top-100 teams. So while there is no A10 team that is standing out as a clear cut top-10 or top-20 team, there is some quality depth.

As far as what that means for URI, we play 12 games against the other seven top-100 teams - all five of our home/home opponents are in this group. The important thing will be taking care of the other six games without a hiccup to allow for some tough beats in that other group of 12 games, and four of those six are on the road.

RoadyJay · Unread post by **RoadyJay** » 7 years ago

Looking at the schedule we have a very realistic shot at winning 8 of our next 9 games. 3 of our 4 road games in that stretch are against teams expected to finish with an RPI of 175+ and we should take care of business against the teams we play at Home. The toughest match-up will be on January 6th on the road against Dayton. If we could steal one from them on the road it would be another very nice resume building win. 16-5 or 17-4 anyone?

hrstrat57 · Unread post by **hrstrat57** » 7 years ago

VCU was on Cox 1004 last night (compare the VCU production to our JR High deal=yikes)

VCU Rams looked pretty good tho it was vs. cupcake city....place looked packed again impressive vs holidays.

We got our hands full with that bunch of Rams me thinks....

hrstrat57 · Unread post by **hrstrat57** » 7 years ago

RoadyJay wrote:Looking at the schedule we have a very realistic shot at winning 8 of our next 9 games. 3 of our 4 road games in that stretch are against teams expected to finish with an RPI of 175+ and we should take care of business against the teams we play at Home. The toughest match-up will be on January 6th on the road against Dayton. If we could steal one from them on the road it would be another very nice resume building win. 16-5 or 17-4 anyone?

Yep...2 bad losses probably disappear at least nationally in your scenario

thatRamBand · Unread post by **thatRamBand** » 7 years ago

hrstrat57 wrote:VCU was on Cox 1004 last night (compare the VCU production to our JR High deal=yikes)

VCU Rams looked pretty good tho it was vs. cupcake city....place looked packed again impressive vs holidays.

We got our hands full with that bunch of Rams me thinks....

VCU has had a pretty up and down year so far. They got bludgeoned by Illinois, lost to a BAD GTech team, and were losing late to Louisiana Monroe at home. But they have won where it counts (Middle Tennessee, LSU, Princeton etc.)

I think to this point they've been better than Dayton and may only improve in Conference play. Should be one hell of a race at the top of the standings.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

hrstrat57 wrote:VCU was on Cox 1004 last night (compare the VCU production to our JR High deal=yikes)

VCU Rams looked pretty good tho it was vs. cupcake city....place looked packed again impressive vs holidays.

We got our hands full with that bunch of Rams me thinks....

57,
VCU is going to be sold our for every game, even for the Holidays, because they are sold out for season tickets every year.
Below is from their website. Note you must donate $500 minimum just for the opportunity to obtain season tickets.

In addition, you get setting preferences based on the amount you donate which I believe is above and beyond the $500 for the right to purchase.

Men's Basketball Season Ticket Wait List Request
The waitlist for 2016-2017 VCU Men's Basketball Season Tickets is open.

Complete this form to be added to the 2016-17 Men's Basketball Season Ticket Wait List. New season ticket requests will be subject to availability and only those granted the opportunity to purchase will be contacted. Notification regarding men's basketball season tickets will take place in September. Please know that all donations to the Ram Athletic Fund are non-refundable.

Notice - due to demand for Men's Basketball Season tickets, there is a minimum donation requirement of $500 to obtain season tickets.
Season tickets are awarded based on these criteria, in order (unless otherwise specified on the waitlist form):
(1) Availability
(2) Annual Contribution to the Ram Athletic Fund
(3) Priority Points
(4) Date you submitted your request

Season Ticket Wait List Benefits
•First priority for any single game tickets that become available for men’s basketball
•Exclusive ticket offers throughout the year for all VCU Athletics events
•Updates on upcoming VCU Athletic events
•Free to join!

Step 3: Please fill out your specific seating interest for seating options (check all that apply):

Donor Seating - Scholarship Society Membership ($25,000 & above annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Platinum Society ($15,000 - $24,999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Battering Ram Membership ($10,000 - $14,999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Champion's Society Membership ($7,5000 - $9,999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Super Rams Membership ($5,000 - $7,4999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Director's Society Membership ($2,500 - $4,999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Black & Gold Membership ($1,000 - $2,499 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Captain's Society Membership ($500- $999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Commonwealth Society Membership ($250- $499 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Rams Society Membership ($100- $249 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Single Game Seating - Reserved and General Admission seating requiring no annual gift, purchase tickets only

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 7 years ago

......regarding VCU season tickets, nice problem to have with demand exceeding supply, I guess that do not have the casual fan cultivation to content with.....bigger market, higher program profile, nice!! What, no popcorn with ticket packages??......side note, I am liking a 9-2 conference record going into Dayton game...

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 7 years ago

Yeah if we finish 13-5 or 12-6 that would mean we would either suffer multiple losses to bad teams in the conference or lose every game that matters. Or too many games that matter.
So even an RPI of 40somethin at 13-5 or 12-6 wouldn't get us close to being in because the resume would be lacking.
Much like the 2014-15 team.
We were one more conference win away from being on the right side of the bubble. Finishing 13-5 win no good nonconference wins was just not quite enough.
And our 2009-10 team had a great nonconference record. Better than ours, but we lost to EVERYONE good in the conference and we're 9-7 and we needed three wins in the A-10 tournament to get in but got two...
I see us late in February playing Dayton, VCU or Davidson with a chance to break through. Win and your secure lose and your bubble bursts and you need to make it to the final of the conference tournament, or win the whole damn thing to get in.

Another point. To give us some hope maybe. Even though we have been a disappointment thus far with our play, I have to wonder are we still any worse than pretty much anybody else in the league? It seems just about everyone else has had a disappointing non-conference, except GMU LaSalle and UMass, but every one has lost games they should win, lost close games and showed a lot of inconsistency. Just as we have. And we still have more talent than pretty much everyone else.
So even though we've looked bad, I think we've looked better than everyone except maybe VCU and Davidson. But they haven't looked all that much better than us.

It'll definitely come down to a pivotal February game though.. I can feel it. It'll be a close game.... with the chance to put us in a comfortable position to get in the field.
Can we finally do it?
I sure as hell hope so.

hrstrat57 · Unread post by **hrstrat57** » 7 years ago

ramster wrote:
hrstrat57 wrote:VCU was on Cox 1004 last night (compare the VCU production to our JR High deal=yikes)

VCU Rams looked pretty good tho it was vs. cupcake city....place looked packed again impressive vs holidays.

We got our hands full with that bunch of Rams me thinks....
57,
VCU is going to be sold our for every game, even for the Holidays, because they are sold out for season tickets every year.
Below is from their website. Note you must donate $500 minimum just for the opportunity to obtain season tickets.

In addition, you get setting preferences based on the amount you donate which I believe is above and beyond the $500 for the right to purchase.

Men's Basketball Season Ticket Wait List Request
The waitlist for 2016-2017 VCU Men's Basketball Season Tickets is open.

Complete this form to be added to the 2016-17 Men's Basketball Season Ticket Wait List. New season ticket requests will be subject to availability and only those granted the opportunity to purchase will be contacted. Notification regarding men's basketball season tickets will take place in September. Please know that all donations to the Ram Athletic Fund are non-refundable.

Notice - due to demand for Men's Basketball Season tickets, there is a minimum donation requirement of $500 to obtain season tickets.
Season tickets are awarded based on these criteria, in order (unless otherwise specified on the waitlist form):
(1) Availability
(2) Annual Contribution to the Ram Athletic Fund
(3) Priority Points
(4) Date you submitted your request

Season Ticket Wait List Benefits
•First priority for any single game tickets that become available for men’s basketball
•Exclusive ticket offers throughout the year for all VCU Athletics events
•Updates on upcoming VCU Athletic events
•Free to join!

Step 3: Please fill out your specific seating interest for seating options (check all that apply):

Donor Seating - Scholarship Society Membership ($25,000 & above annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Platinum Society ($15,000 - $24,999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Battering Ram Membership ($10,000 - $14,999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Champion's Society Membership ($7,5000 - $9,999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Super Rams Membership ($5,000 - $7,4999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Director's Society Membership ($2,500 - $4,999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Black & Gold Membership ($1,000 - $2,499 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Captain's Society Membership ($500- $999 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Commonwealth Society Membership ($250- $499 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Donor Seating - Rams Society Membership ($100- $249 annual gift) plus cost of tickets
Single Game Seating - Reserved and General Admission seating requiring no annual gift, purchase tickets only

Wow!

In my twisted Keaneyblue Blue Rhody Alum brain I still think we can get there!!!!

VCU Rams yep I wanna be like that!!!!

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

That's what helps the A10 is that it's about 9 deep even though no dominating team. That's why it comes in at 7th RPI

rhodysurf · Unread post by **rhodysurf** » 7 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote:Yeah if we finish 13-5 or 12-6 that would mean we would either suffer multiple losses to bad teams in the conference or lose every game that matters. Or too many games that matter.
So even an RPI of 40somethin at 13-5 or 12-6 wouldn't get us close to being in because the resume would be lacking.
Much like the 2014-15 team.
We were one more conference win away from being on the right side of the bubble. Finishing 13-5 win no good nonconference wins was just not quite enough.
And our 2009-10 team had a great nonconference record. Better than ours, but we lost to EVERYONE good in the conference and we're 9-7 and we needed three wins in the A-10 tournament to get in but got two...
I see us late in February playing Dayton, VCU or Davidson with a chance to break through. Win and your secure lose and your bubble bursts and you need to make it to the final of the conference tournament, or win the whole damn thing to get in.

Another point. To give us some hope maybe. Even though we have been a disappointment thus far with our play, I have to wonder are we still any worse than pretty much anybody else in the league? It seems just about everyone else has had a disappointing non-conference, except GMU LaSalle and UMass, but every one has lost games they should win, lost close games and showed a lot of inconsistency. Just as we have. And we still have more talent than pretty much everyone else.
So even though we've looked bad, I think we've looked better than everyone except maybe VCU and Davidson. But they haven't looked all that much better than us.

It'll definitely come down to a pivotal February game though.. I can feel it. It'll be a close game.... with the chance to put us in a comfortable position to get in the field.
Can we finally do it?
I sure as hell hope so.

I agree with this perspective, even VCU got pummeled by Georgia Tech, and Davidson hasn't been world beaters either. The conference is ripe for the taking if we can get our act together.

Obadiah · Unread post by **Obadiah** » 7 years ago

In the world of the "big dogs", VCU $500 donation is puny. To be able to buy season tickets to Duke games, the minimum donation is $6500 annually and in your first year it is $7500.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

Obadiah wrote:In the world of the "big dogs", VCU $500 donation is puny. To be able to buy season tickets to Duke games, the minimum donation is $6500 annually and in your first year it is $7500.

Wow. And is Duke sold out with a lengthy waiting list as well?

RIFan · Unread post by **RIFan** » 7 years ago

Was VCU always like this, or is this after they made the final 4 and had a string of NCAA runs? I'm going out on a limb and guess it is the byproduct of sustained success...

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 7 years ago

It's called WINNING!
No Duke has people camped out for days to get tickets,
because they stink.
Hell, BYU sells out the 22,000 seat Marriott Center,
every game. That's 22K in PROVO.
43 miles from Salt Lake City.
Provo's population is about the same as Warwick.
But, you know, Kingston is on the dark side of the moon.
It's why nobody attends the games.
Xavier had SRO last night, with no students!
Just win, baby!

josephski · Unread post by **josephski** » 7 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote:Yeah if we finish 13-5 or 12-6 that would mean we would either suffer multiple losses to bad teams in the conference or lose every game that matters. Or too many games that matter.
So even an RPI of 40somethin at 13-5 or 12-6 wouldn't get us close to being in because the resume would be lacking.
Much like the 2014-15 team.
We were one more conference win away from being on the right side of the bubble. Finishing 13-5 win no good nonconference wins was just not quite enough.

Tulsa went 20-11 last year and got into the tournament but had 4 top 50 RPI wins. They also had 8 losses against top 100 teams along with 2 not great losses to teams with RPI's of 131 and 149 then one really bad loss to Little Rock who had a RPI of 247.

Good wins seem to matter more than bad losses most of the time. If we can get two more top 50 wins against Dayton and VCU we should be able to afford a couple not so great losses. Two years ago we went 0-6 against top 50 teams. If that record was even 1-5 we probably would have been very close to in but without any wins against top 50 teams it's very tough to get into the tournament as an at large from what I've seen.

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