Tough Four game stretch ahead

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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by ramster »

They can't guard our big men either. They have nobody to stop Martin
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by bigappleram »

The weave is intended to get people moving...there is action away from the ball that is critical. With our guard-heavy offense it's an excellent option at different points of a game if the offense is stagnant.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Houston got a few AP votes this week, so hopefully they stay a high-quality opponent all season as we hoped.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by RamFanCO19 »

ramster wrote:They can't guard our big men either. They have nobody to stop Martin

I think the Holt/Hassan match up is going to be the best one, thats prob an even fight
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by bigappleram »

Holt is a nice player but even that match up has to tilt to our favor.
The 1 matchup where you could say PC has clear advantage is at the 4 - Bullock vs Iverson. All 4 other positions if you were going to choose 1 guy you would pick the guy in Keaney blue. That said, this is why they play the game.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by Iggy1979 »

3-1 would be a good outcome and, I think, leave URI in the top 25. 8-2 would be OK with me.
Quality wins: Cinn, Belmont, Valpo, PC
Quality losses: Duke, Houston
Bad losses: 0
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by BleedBlue87 »

FYI just got this email.

URI vs. PC Pregame Reception!
Saturday, December 3, 2016 • 2:30–4 p.m.
Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar
One West Exchange Street
Providence, Rhode Island

REGISTER TODAY!

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Show your Rhody Pride at a pregame reception for the URI Men’s Basketball team as they take on Providence College! Before you head over to the Dunkin' Donuts Center, join fellow alums at Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, located on the first floor of the Omni Providence Hotel, for pregame fare and a cash bar.

Pregame Cost: $15, includes pregame fare and cash bar.

Individual game tickets are now available for purchase at the Friars Box Office! Click here to find your seat.

Contact: Kate Maccarone '08, Alumni Relations, 401.874.4679 or kemaccarone@uri.edu.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by bigappleram »

Iggy in that scenario ODU could very well end up being a good win as well. Showed well versus Louisville, and have victories over St John's and Richmond in the OOC. Given those results have to think they will play near the top of CAA again.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by josephski »

We have to win at least 3 out of 4. Ideally that one loss comes in one of the away games to the team that ends up with the highest rpi come end of the year.

Maybe someone who understands tournament seeding better can correct me but the way I see it is if we want a 7 seed or better we'll need at least 4 top 50 rpi wins and at most 2-3 losses in the 51-100 rpi range. This is assuming our strength of schedule is around 100. Two losses in this four game stretch could really hurt especially if the a10 continues to have a down year.
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ramster
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by ramster »

We need to win all 4. Losing 1 likely puts us out of Top 25.

We must beat Valpo. Last year Martin had 10 points, 10 rebounds and 6 blocks. He is playing better this year and completely healthy! Last year we hit only 13-24 free throws - we will not repeat that.
Last year Vashil Hernandez hurt us with 14 points and 5 rebounds - he has graduated.
They are a weaker team, we are a stronger and very experienced team. We can't lose this game.

We must beat PC. Last year Bentil had 23 points and 8 rebounds. Dunn had 15 points and 5 rebounds and Lomomba had 10 points and 2 rebounds. They are a weaker team, we are stronger and very experienced. We can't lose to PC

ODU we must beat at home - absolutely must beat them

Houston will be the toughest of the 4 games but we will beat them as well. This is the year!!!!! Can't wait until next year or the year after. THIS IS IT.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by josephski »

I'm not worried about falling out of the top 25, even if we do fall out we should be able to work our way back in. I just want to see us get the highest seed possible in the NCAA tournament. One away loss over the next four games shouldn't hurt us too bad other than the possibility of dropping out of the top 25. This is the best roster we've had in a very long time and it will probably be the best roster we have for the next couple years as well. It just sucks that it looks like a down year for the a10 because it leaves very little room for error.

If you look at PC's conference schedule they could possible play 8 games against top 25 rpi teams (Creighton, Butler, Villanova and Xavier). We'll be lucky if there are 3 teams in the a10 with a top 50 rpi other than ourselves. We have less opportunities for quality wins and more chances for bad losses.
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ramster
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by ramster »

That is why we need to win all 4 games. We need to stay in the Top 25 for all of the benefits that come with this notoriety. This is the year!!
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by bigappleram »

I agree with both of you.

3-1 with say a loss to UH is not going to kill our resume, and would be a very good accomplishment through a tough 4 game stretch that would leave us well positioned for March (but out of Top 25 most likely).

But also agree with Ramster, on paper we are better than all 4 teams. To announce we really have arrived and make a program changing statement we need to go 4-0. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, why not us.
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ramster
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by ramster »

It always makes me feel smarter when BAR agrees with me :D :D :D
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by theblueram »

I hope we can break the record for number of weeks in the poll. We do that by winning the next 4.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by bigappleram »

Haha I need you to call my clients ramster!
I always enjoy your enthusiasm and insights.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by PeterRamTime »

bigappleram wrote:Iggy in that scenario ODU could very well end up being a good win as well. Showed well versus Louisville, and have victories over St John's and Richmond in the OOC. Given those results have to think they will play near the top of CAA again.
ODU is in conference usa now actually.
But they definitely look like they will compete near the top of that conference. They're a tough team.

I haven't seen Houston play yet, but Valpo really impresses me.
I'm worried about these next four games, but I feel pretty confident we will go 4-0. That Cinci win did that for me.
I can deal with 3-1. It'll be yucky and we will drop out of the top 25, but losing to Houston would be fine. Don't think we should since we beat them pretty easily with a weak team last year.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by bigappleram »

Ah yes, thanks PRT, the football made them do it. Always associate them with the CAA.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by reef »

I will say 3-1 during that stretch

If we do get 4-0 I will be getting giddy
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Just play well in these road games, that's really the only question I have about this team.........if we do, we should go 3-1 at least.....
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

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FAIL
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by TruePoint »

URI was +1 overall (250-249) in this "tough" four game stretch they just played. And they got one win and three losses to show for it (typical Rhody), and put themselves in a very tight corner in terms of their biggest goal for the season.

The season isn't over (and I'm not saying that in the cheap way that literally any team in the country could say it right now because of the autobid situation, although there is that, too). But hopes for the type of season we all wanted and expected are absolutely on life support. It is going to take probably the best A10 season in program's 36 year history with the league in order to salvage it.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by Da_Process_Survivor »

TruePoint wrote:URI was +1 overall (250-249) in this "tough" four game stretch they just played. And they got one win and three losses to show for it (typical Rhody), and put themselves in a very tight corner in terms of their biggest goal for the season.

The season isn't over (and I'm not saying that in the cheap way that literally any team in the country could say it right now because of the autobid situation, although there is that, too). But hopes for the type of season we all wanted and expected are absolutely on life support. It is going to take probably the best A10 season in program's 36 year history with the league in order to salvage it.

yup, between the conference sched and a10 tourney, they're gonna need at least 15 wins. and with no bottom half losses.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by PeterRamTime »

Yeah win these last two nonconference games and go anywhere from 15-3 to 18-0 in conference to get an at large bid.
I also feel VCU and Dayton are in the same boat as us right now. Maybe Davidson as well.
We still have the best win in the league.
VCU's win over Princeton is probably the next best win.
It's an uphill climb for anybody in the league to get an at-large.
Last year VCU lost all of their marquee nonconference games, but then came out and dominated the A-10 and made it to the final for an at-large bid.
The only team I can see doing what VCU did last year is VCU... or Dayton.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by TruePoint »

14 A10 wins would be enough. 13 would put us on a very soft bubble. (Assuming winning out in OOC and at least one A10 tournament win.)
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by josephski »

TruePoint wrote:14 A10 wins would be enough. 13 would put us on a very soft bubble. (Assuming winning out in OOC and at least one A10 tournament win.)
It depends heavily on who the wins and losses are against. We could go 14-4 with the four losses being to Dayton twice, VCU and Davidson on the road. If that scenario were to happen then 14-4 would probably put us on the bubble and not definitely in.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by TruePoint »

Idk, I think with a RPI around 25 and with what looks like at least one good win in hand, you're probably in good shape at 14-4 even if the four losses are the ones you identified. Again, that assumes at least one more neutral court win against a decent team in the A10 quarters. That puts you at 23-9 and at top-25 RPI. It's way shakier than I would have hoped for before the season but I think it gives you a strong chance at getting into the field bordering on definite. Let's just get there first, though, then we can worry about it. I do not believe that 14-4 is any sort of a lock.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

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ramster
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by ramster »

URI has not lost only 4 games in the A10 Conference since the 1997-1998 season when the team went to the Elite 8 and on top of that it was only a 16 game season.

I'm a pretty optimistic guy but a 14-4 record in this conference with 9 of the games on the road? Please pass the kool aid.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by TruePoint »

ramster wrote:URI has not lost only 4 games in the A10 Conference since the 1997-1998 season when the team went to the Elite 8 and on top of that it was only a 16 game season.

I'm a pretty optimistic guy but a 14-4 record in this conference with 9 of the games on the road? Please pass the kool aid.
I agree that 14-4 would be quite an accomplishment and would stand in stark contrast to what we've seen from this team so far. I'd add, though, that I wouldn't say it is out of the realm of possibility.

The reason why they NEED to go at least 14-4 is that the conference appears to be way down from its usual level this season, which means that there are less chances for resume-boosting wins and RPI boosting games but the flip side is that the games should be easier to win.

I'd also point out that this program has only really had two legitimately good teams (as far as non-NCAA teams go) since the 97-98 team you referenced - the 08-09 and the 14-15 teams, and they both lost five games. This same basic team went 13-5 two seasons ago and could have easily won another one or two of those games.

Personally I expected them to be at least 14-4 in conference coming into the season, but obviously my expectations have changed some based on early season returns. At this point I am merely hopeful.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by josephski »

I'm not really sure how accurate that RPI wizard is. I tried to research the accuracy of it and the only thing I found was a guy claimed it was within 10 spots about 80% of the time but usually teams were overrated, not underrated. This was also with a very small sample size so it might not mean much. Either way going by that and previous years RPIs I think somewhere in the 30-40 range would be where we end up if we only have 1 top 50 win.

With how weak the a10 is I honestly think 14-4 isn't going to be as difficult as some may think. Dayton, VCU, Davidson and St Bonaventure may be the only other top 100 RPI teams. Four out of those six games are at home. Aim for 4-2 in those 6 games and we should be able to handle the rest of the schedule. Easier said than done but this team plays way better at home than on the road.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by Rhody15 »

What a depressing, depressing article.

Unfortunately it's 100% true.

What could have been...
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

TruePoint wrote:Idk, I think with a RPI around 25 and with what looks like at least one good win in hand, you're probably in good shape at 14-4 even if the four losses are the ones you identified. Again, that assumes at least one more neutral court win against a decent team in the A10 quarters. That puts you at 23-9 and at top-25 RPI. It's way shakier than I would have hoped for before the season but I think it gives you a strong chance at getting into the field bordering on definite. Let's just get there first, though, then we can worry about it. I do not believe that 14-4 is any sort of a lock.
I don't know, you are basically saying that URI couldn't win a Top 60-70 true road game all year under that scenario, and still get an at-large bid. That would be an extremely tall task. The committee has come out over and over again in recent years to point out that the RPI is not an end all, and that there is more emphasis than ever on alternative measuring tools like Ken Pom, Sagarin, BPI, etc and that teams need to be able to perform away from home. The Cincinnati game deserves weight, but it shouldn't appear like an aberration.

Furthermore, it also assumes a decent team in the quarter finals of the A10 tournament... The only way that probably happens is if URI plays in the 4-5 game, which probably means they lost 6 or 7 games in conference ... Just looking through RPI Forecast ...

1) URI (38) vs. 8) George Mason (127) or 9) St. Joseph's (130)
2) Dayton (38) vs. 7) LaSalle (110) or 10) George Washington (152)
3) VCU (50) vs. 6) UMASS (91) or 11) Richmond (178) or St. Louis (286)
4) Davidson (63) vs. 5) St. Bonaventure (69) or 12) Duquesne (242) or 13) Fordham (248)

So if you play the game, does being a 3 seed facing UMASS at 91 give that extra marquee win? Or do you realistically need the semis or higher? That said, if you win the right games in conference, the conference tourney, and the OOC, don't really matter.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by TruePoint »

It's kind of hard to say at this point, but there is a possibility that URI only plays 3 true road games against top-60 teams. Is going 0-3 in those games fatal? I mean, if you go 22-5 in your other games and your metrics say you're a top-25ish team, all of that is going to be thrown out because of a 3 game sample where you may realistically have lost 3 games by a combined 7-8 points? I would agree if they were 0-7 or 0-8 against top-60 teams on the road but you can't strip the analysis down to a single factor test when that test is based on such a tiny sample.

It would be an obvious problem for URI's resume if they lose at Dayton and Davidson and Dayton, Davidson, Houston, Providence and Valpo are our five best road games and we are 0-5, especially if one or both of the other four A10 losses we are assuming is on the road. But I do also think there are other criteria which would favor Rhody and overall they'd be in decent position to get a bid.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

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either way, because of dropping the ball in OOC games, we are in for a long 2.5 months of schedule watching and hand wringing
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by josephski »

TruePoint wrote: It would be an obvious problem for URI's resume if they lose at Dayton and Davidson and Dayton, Davidson, Houston, Providence and Valpo are our five best road games and we are 0-5, especially if one or both of the other four A10 losses we are assuming is on the road. But I do also think there are other criteria which would favor Rhody and overall they'd be in decent position to get a bid.
The problem is right now at Dayton and at Davidson are pretty much expected to be losses with the way we've played on the road so 0-5 is looking more likely. I'm pretty confident we'll split the games with both teams but I'm honestly hoping we pick up the road win at Dayton and lose at home if we do split. Hate to lose at home, especially because it will be a big game, but I think picking up a big road win will help us more than a home loss will hurt us.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

The committee has come out in the last year or two and specifically laid out the fact that RPI is only a piece of the puzzle and that metrics like Ken Pom, BPI, etc. also matter. It's about building a complete resume, not just one that manipulates the RPI.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by TruePoint »

Right, nobody is confused about that.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by RIFan »

People are saying 14-4 or 13-5 without losing to Dayton, VCU or Davidson or whoever is at the top of the league...that's fine...but if you beat the top teams, and still have 4-5 losses...that means you now have 4-5 bad losses, if you only lose to the non-elite teams. Add those to our less than stellar OOC record and I'm not sure how you get an at-large bid.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by TruePoint »

I think a big problem here is that people are bad looking at the overall body of work from a high level. You don't get in as a ten seed with no blemishes on your resume. Every team, save for one or two every decade or so, is flawed in some way. You don't have to have a flawless resume. You just have to be one of the best 40 or so teams, give or take. Honestly, I think we have over complicated this. If you play a top 50 schedule and finish in the top 30 of whatever ranking system you like, you'll be fine. The way each system does its calculation is a little different, but they all are working toward the same goal and for the most part they arrive at more or less the same place - they identify the same teams as being good.

If you can't lose to good teams because you'll have no good wins and you can't lose to mediocre teams because you'll have bad losses, you're basically saying a team like URI has to go 28-2 or something to get a bid and I just don't think history or common sense supports that idea.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by RIFan »

TruePoint, I completely understand, I guess "good" wins must have more of an impact than "bad" losses. So far we don't have any "bad" losses, but we are lacking in the "good" win category. That is the problem, with a down A10 those opportunities going forward are not plentiful. We have a veteran team, who should have been on the same page and able to steal a few early in the season while other teams are trying to gel....just didn't happen.
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Re: Tough Four game stretch ahead

Unread post by reef »

If we do go 14-4 hopefully we get first place in the league or tie for first that could help with the committee
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