KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

Billyboy78 wrote:I don't imagine RPI takes injuries into consideration.

No, but some other tools the selection committee uses do consider injuries

I don't know what RhodyMBB is trying to accomplish here. I think this is a bad move. Trying to save face? Even discussing today's actual RPI is a totally useless exercise. Only Expected RPI would have any statistical significance.

The other metrics paint the Rams as a NIT team, really.

Yeah, it seems like they should have just tweeted the SOS and called it a day.

Got a little bump...

Our conf is so bad I still think 21-9 will get us an RPI worse than 40. We will have a few bad losses along the way in that scenario

reef wrote:Our conf is so bad I still think 21-9 will get us an RPI worse than 40. We will have a few bad losses along the way in that scenario

Current RPI indicates The A10 ranked #7 among all D1 conferences, same as last year.

A10 is ranked #5 in Strenght of Schedule (SOS)

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Those expected RPI calculations are "aware" of the A10s lower OOC win % so that's already factored in.

reef wrote:Our conf is so bad I still think 21-9 will get us an RPI worse than 40. We will have a few bad losses along the way in that scenario

When I gave us losses in the two games it thinks we'll lose and the four worst losses possible to get us to 21-9 we still had an RPI of 28. They think 21-9 will give us an RPI of 34. I don't think 21-9 will give us an RPI worse than 40 because of the strength of our nonconference schedule

Ok fair enough. I just think if we do end up 21-9 then we better do major damage in the a10 tourney

I think this team has a long way to go before they have a shot at the NCAA Tournament. One strong win against Cincy at a neutral location is hardly enough to put forth a convincing argument in my eyes. There will likely be other teams with similar resumes on the bubble (meaning decent RPI with 1 or 2 good wins).
Regardless of what the programs and analytics say, I think they need to win the conference or the conference tournament or have 22 wins or better to keep themselves out of jeopardy of missing the dance. They could really use some quality road wins.

I think that's right. Any assumption of a good RPI starts with 21 wins, and that's just to be good enough to be on the bubble. The safer side of the bubble is more like 22 wins. And we are talking pre-A10 tournament, where we would need at least one more win just to avoid a "bad" loss which would knock us back. It's an uphill slog for sure at this point for Rhody.

Remaining OOC A10 Schedule:

Wednesday, December 21
Jacksonville at Davidson 7:00 pm A-10 Network
Vanderbilt at Dayton 7:00 pm TW Sports Ohio Facebook Live/A-10 Network
Central Connecticut at Fordham 7:00 pm A-10 Network

Thursday, December 22
Prairie View A&M at George Mason Noon A-10 Network
Colgate at Duquesne 2:00 pm A-10 Network
George Washington at Miami 7:00 pm ACC Extra
La Salle at Mercer 7:00 pm ESPN3
Rider at Massachusetts 7:00 pm A-10 Network(Gotham)
William & Mary at Rhode Island 7:00 pm A-10 Network
Canisius at St. Bonaventure 7:00 pm TW Sports NY A-10 Network
LA-Monroe at VCU 7:00 pm WTVR 6.1 A-10 Network
Lafayette at Saint Joseph’s 7:00 pm A-10 Network
Winthrop at Saint Louis 8:00 pm FS-Midwest Plus FOXSportsGo

Friday, December 23
Richmond at Oral Roberts 4:00 pm
VMI at Dayton 7:00 pm TW Sports Ohio A-10 Network

Tuesday, December 27
Howard at VCU 7:00 pm MASN A-10 Network

Wednesday, December 28
Massachusetts at Georgia State 2:00 pm ESPN3
Hartford at Davidson 7:00 pm A-10 Network

RPI currently at 36 according to ESPN.

More importantly the expected RPI improved from 35.5 to 30.7.

The next 3 teams with expected RPIs:
Dayton now at 35.1
VCU 43.0
Davidson 55.3 but will drop after a loss at home to Richmond with an expected of 180.1

Our expected SOS Rank is the best at 48

Excellent stay in the 30s and we will be fine

That chart shows a big uptick for the last game.....at home vs. VCU.....that one could be huge......but way too far off right now.

RPI moved from 39 yesterday up to 33 today after Marist ODU and W&M won last night.

FWIW, per rpiforecast.com, URI has a 63% chance of finishing the season with a RPI of 30 or better (taking into account games thru yesterday).

PeterRamTime wrote:RPI moved from 39 yesterday up to 33 today after Marist ODU and W&M won last night.

Projected RPI just a few days ago after the SLU game was 35.3.
The current RPI is 39. That might be what you were looking at.
Current estimated now is 32.4 for end of season. Has expected RPI ever been this high at the point in January in the past 18 years?

ramster wrote:

PeterRamTime wrote:RPI moved from 39 yesterday up to 33 today after Marist ODU and W&M won last night.

Projected RPI just a few days ago after the SLU game was 35.3.
The current RPI is 39. That might be what you were looking at.
Current estimated now is 32.4 for end of season. Has expected RPI ever been this high at the point in January in the past 18 years?

I'm using ESPN's RPI.
Today it's 33

PeterRamTime wrote:

ramster wrote:

PeterRamTime wrote:RPI moved from 39 yesterday up to 33 today after Marist ODU and W&M won last night.

Projected RPI just a few days ago after the SLU game was 35.3.
The current RPI is 39. That might be what you were looking at.
Current estimated now is 32.4 for end of season. Has expected RPI ever been this high at the point in January in the past 18 years?

I'm using ESPN's RPI.
Today it's 33

Oh ok. I use the rpiforecast link that ATP provided at the beginning of this thread. Excellent site. Shows the percentage chance to win each remaining game plus estimated point spreads that change continuously. Also has a nice page that shows the RPI of all 32 Conferences along with their Strength of Schedule.

I'll use that sometimes. I've historically used Realtimepri the most.
LiveRPI is interesting.
They're all never the exact same, so I wonder what slight adjustments to their respective calculations they do, to make them just slightly different.
Which ones do the tournament committee use? Do they look at all the RPI's or do they just look at one.

I'm curious what causes the variances in current RPI, too, since RPI is just a straightforward calculation. Math shouldn't work in such a way that different people get different results doing the same calculation, so my best guess is that the inputs vary somehow. Maybe some don't back out games that shouldn't count (i.e., adjust opponent's record and opponent's opponent's records for games against D2 teams) or adjust their calcs to weigh home vs road games. But if anyone knows for sure, I'd be interested to hear the explanation.

It is the home-neutral-away designations that cause the differences.

ATPTourFan wrote:It is the home-neutral-away designations that cause the differences.

Any sense why any of these RPI calculators wouldn't just account for that? Seems like in the course of building the calc that incorporating that info would be a rather small thing. Why put in all that effort just to skip something simple like that?

ATPTourFan wrote:It is the home-neutral-away designations that cause the differences.

ATP,
For simplicity is there one site that you would recommend so that comparisons would be apples to apples? I think that realtimerpi has a pay version that is maybe more timely than their basic non-pay version? I think when the calculations are performed matters as well.

I imagine the committee uses the NCAA RPI which you can find here: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi

As of today that has us with an RPI of 35, if you want to use it to see how other sites differ. I'd imagine any RPI should come from either that site or rpiforecast/live-rpi so we can use their projections. That has the added benefit of people ignoring ESPN, which is always good. Live-rpi.com has us with an rpi of 33 this morning.

Yes, the official NCAA RPI is good for "today's" RPI.

For real-time RPI, do NOT go to realtimerpi.com. Go to Live-RPI.com which is part of RPIForecast.

Live-RPI.com is completely free and offers in-game updates to the RPI and it's very accurate. The most valuable data comes from the Expected RPI and RPI Wizard features, as well as the team/conference detail pages.

Please note that the Forecast and team detail pages do not update in real time. They usually update by mid-day the following day.

ATPTourFan wrote:So you want to bookmark this page. Rhody jumped almost 50 spots with yesterday's win. Now 62

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

This is what you put at the beginning of this message thread which you are continuing to recommend. Great site.

Here's an rpi question; how good would the A10 be if we still had our AAC teams (Xavier and Temple) and how bad would the AAC be? You'd have to take Mason and Davidson out and factor Xavier and Temple in. To figure the AAC, I'm not sure, but since it only came into existence a couple of years ago I'd just figure it without those two teams.

A10 should start a campaign right now to get Xavier, Temple and UConn to migrate over and create the newest power conference. Offer to cut ties with one, two or three teams (Fordham, Duquense...) You'd have URI, UMass and UConn in the same conference, Temple, St. Joes and LaSalle back in the same conference and Xavier Dayton back together again. Davidson, VCU and Mason still in the mix. It would be one extremely powerful conference!!!

Yes, yes, yes I know football, fuck football, get these universities to recommit to basketball.

After yesterdays games, according to rpiforecast we now have a 76.55% chance of having an RPI of 30 or better, which means a record of 13-5 in conference. Keep in mind that site had us two spots better than the NCAA's.

Running Ram wrote:Here's an rpi question; how good would the A10 be if we still had our AAC teams (Xavier and Temple)

Xavier is in the New Big East. Only Temple went to American for football reasons.

Spot RPI is now 33

More important Expected RPI (going into A10 Tournament) is down to 27.4 with SOS 48

I thought the expected RPI of 27.4 factored in the A10 tournament, and that's why it's different than the RPI of 24 that it shows for our expected record of 22-8

One other interesting thing to note from the latest update of rpiforecast is that this Friday's game at Dayton is now the last scheduled game in which we are currently projected to be the underdog. We are projected to be favored for the remaining 15 regular season games on the slate, including at Davidson (which was the last one to flip).

Loving that real time RPI and that expected RPI !!

After Friday Night's Dayton Game:

URI went from 27.0 to 29.8

Dayton went from 30.2 to 27.2

VCU is 40.6

You can give me all the RPI numbers you want, the committee isn't going to fall for it. This team doesn't pass the eye test and doesn't have a resume deserving of a tournament bid. Sure, there are still chances but they are dwindling.

URI's margin for error is getting thinner and thinner and we all know how this team reacts to adversity. Not well...

Simply showing today's numbers, that's all, What people read into the numbers is up to the individual

For sure, the numbers are appreciated. Just think they aren't representative of what this team has shown so far this season.

STC wrote:For sure, the numbers are appreciated. Just think they aren't representative of what this team has shown so far this season.

I mean they kind of are though, thats sort of the point. They are exactly representative of what the team has done so far this season. It's a math calculation. Now the rest of your other post right before that is valid, they may not pass the eye test as of now and their chances to make a mark are certainly dwindling. But I'm not sure you can say the numbers aren't representative of what they have shown, because thats exactly what they are. Now if you were to say the numbers may not hold up over the course of the season because you expect them to lose some bad games then you would have an argument. And maybe that's what you meant.

Fair enough, URI's RPI number is certainly their best case for being a tournament team right now, I hope it holds up. I do expect it to drop as URI stacks up wins against the LaSalle's and Duquesne's of the world meanwhile P5 schools get more cracks at resume building wins that URI isn't afforded being a mid-major.

Even if the RPI does hold up URI is going to need to do more than just have a nice RPI to impress the committee.

True that's a decent number now for sure and we need to keep it in the mid 30s

We also better not have any bad losses along the way

Here's a perfect case of an RPI number not being truly representative of a team's quality. At this point, the committee would sure see right thru the RPI number and look at the quality wins and bad losses. Right now, URI's resume is severely lacking quality wins. They are showing that they are not ready for prime time...and NIT worthy team, not an NCAA caliber team.

If we can not beat the top teams in our league....plus the OOC road losses....we're toast, plain and simple.

And we have NO more opportunities for top 50 road wins......

The committee would look at our win against Cincy as an outlier. Nothing to back it up.

Even a 15-3 league record might not be enough....and I think the chances of even that happening are close to nil anyway.

Look at how mad people get when the math doesn't agree with their angry and emotional view of the world!

adam914 wrote:

STC wrote:For sure, the numbers are appreciated. Just think they aren't representative of what this team has shown so far this season.

I mean they kind of are though, thats sort of the point. They are exactly representative of what the team has done so far this season. It's a math calculation. Now the rest of your other post right before that is valid, they may not pass the eye test as of now and their chances to make a mark are certainly dwindling. But I'm not sure you can say the numbers aren't representative of what they have shown, because thats exactly what they are. Now if you were to say the numbers may not hold up over the course of the season because you expect them to lose some bad games then you would have an argument. And maybe that's what you meant.

Our projected RPI isn't necessarily representative of what's been shown because it's a projection and only so accurate. Our current RPI you can definitely say is representative of what the team has done because like you said, it's a math calculation. Even if the RPI forecast is within ten spots of what our actual RPI ends up then it's still pretty accurate but that could mean our RPI may end up anywhere from 19-39 which could be the difference of easily making the tournament or not making it at all.

rambone 78 wrote:If we can not beat the top teams in our league....plus the OOC road losses....we're toast, plain and simple.

And we have NO more opportunities for top 50 road wins......

The committee would look at our win against Cincy as an outlier. Nothing to back it up.

Even a 15-3 league record might not be enough....and I think the chances of even that happening are close to nil anyway.

Really??? If we go 15-3 in league play you don't think we make the tournament. Wow!!!! We don't play in the American East.

Nonsense!

Mongo wrote:

rambone 78 wrote:If we can not beat the top teams in our league....plus the OOC road losses....we're toast, plain and simple.

And we have NO more opportunities for top 50 road wins......

The committee would look at our win against Cincy as an outlier. Nothing to back it up.

Even a 15-3 league record might not be enough....and I think the chances of even that happening are close to nil anyway.

Really??? If we go 15-3 in league play you don't think we make the tournament. Wow!!!! We don't play in the American East.

Nonsense!

RPI Forecast today:

If URI finishes 15-3 (23-7) overall then the RPI equates to 20.5. How could that possibly not be enough?
13-5 (21-9) is a 30.5 RPI
The probability of finishing 13-5 or higher is 72.1%

25-5 (17-1) RPI 11.5 (2% Chance)
24-6 (16-2) RPI 15.6 (7% Chance)
23-7 (15-3) RPI 20.5 (17% Chance)
22-8 (14-4) RPI 25.1 (24% Chance)
21-9 (13-5) RPI 30.5 (23% Chance) 72.1% Chance of finishing 13-5 or higher
20-10(12-6) RPI 37.7 (15% Chance)

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html