2016-2017 RPI watch

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ramster
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ramster » 9 months ago

A look at the remaining schedules for URI, Dayton and VCU

URI is favored in all 15 remaining games.
Closest game for URI is @ Davidson on Feb 3 where URI is favored by 1.9 points. Next toughest is Dayton at URI Feb 10 favored by 3.0 points

Dayton has 2 games they are not favored in.
@ VCU on Jan 22 where VCU is favored by .2 and @ URI where URI is favored by 3.0

VCU has the toughest road ahead with 3 games they are not favored in and 2 games they are favored by less than 1 point.
4 of those 5 games VCU plays on the road.

URI
12-Jan LaSalle 101 - H 12.2
15-Jan UMASS 121 - H 12.7
21-Jan Duquesne 215 - A 11.7
25-Jan Richmond 134 - A 6.4
28-Jan St Bonaventure 89 - H 9.8
31-Jan George Washington 141 - H 13.6
3-Feb Davidson 83 - A 1.9
7-Feb UMASS 121 - A 6.4
10-Feb Dayton 29 - H 3.0
15-Feb Fordham 264 - H 19.8
18-Feb George Mason 128 - A 6.7
21-Feb LaSalle 101 - A 5.9
25-Feb VCU 38 - H 6.0
1-Mar St Josephs 85 - A 5.3
4-Mar Davidson 83 - H 8.2

Dayton -
22-Jan VCU 38 - A -.2
10-Feb URI 31 - A -3.0

VCU -
14-Jan Davidson 84 - A -.9
27-Jan Dayton 29 - H 0.2
4-Feb St Bonaventure 88 - A 0.6
25-Feb URI 31 - A -5.9
1-Mar Dayton 29 - A -6.2
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby adam914 » 9 months ago

It's pretty fun, and very interesting to play around with that RPI Wizard. I just ran a scenario where we actually finish 12-6, with losses to @Davidson, @UMass, Dayton, @LaSalle, and VCU. That still leaves us with an RPI of 33. Now granted those losses wouldn't leave us with a great resume overall, but it is interesting to see that things would really have to go pretty badly the rest of the way for our RPI number to take a big hit.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 9 months ago

Our game at Richmond is going to be very difficult
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ATPTourFan » 9 months ago

ramster wrote:
Mongo wrote:
rambone 78 wrote:If we can not beat the top teams in our league....plus the OOC road losses....we're toast, plain and simple.

And we have NO more opportunities for top 50 road wins......

The committee would look at our win against Cincy as an outlier. Nothing to back it up.

Even a 15-3 league record might not be enough....and I think the chances of even that happening are close to nil anyway.



Really??? If we go 15-3 in league play you don't think we make the tournament. Wow!!!! We don't play in the American East.

Nonsense!


RPI Forecast today:

If URI finishes 15-3 (23-7) overall then the RPI equates to 20.5. How could that possibly not be enough?
13-5 (21-9) is a 30.5 RPI
The probability of finishing 13-5 or higher is 72.1%

25-5 (17-1) RPI 11.5 (2% Chance)
24-6 (16-2) RPI 15.6 (7% Chance)
23-7 (15-3) RPI 20.5 (17% Chance)
22-8 (14-4) RPI 25.1 (24% Chance)
21-9 (13-5) RPI 30.5 (23% Chance) 72.1% Chance of finishing 13-5 or higher
20-10(12-6) RPI 37.7 (15% Chance)

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html


As Han Solo says,

NEVER GIVE ME THE ODDS!!


How dare we use math and science to support a modicum of positivity!
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby TruePoint » 9 months ago

reef wrote:Our game at Richmond is going to be very difficult


Idk, Richmond seems to be untested at this point. Their 4 A10 opponents are a combined 5-11.

I'm not saying that game won't be tough, because all road games in the league have the potential to be tough, but I don't think Richmond is a legit dark horse in the league based on what they've done so far.
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ramster
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ramster » 9 months ago

TruePoint wrote:
reef wrote:Our game at Richmond is going to be very difficult


Idk, Richmond seems to be untested at this point. Their 4 A10 opponents are a combined 5-11.

I'm not saying that game won't be tough, because all road games in the league have the potential to be tough, but I don't think Richmond is a legit dark horse in the league based on what they've done so far.


Agree TP, Richmond's 1st 4 games on their way to 4-0:
@ Davidson 82-80
Fordham 80-72
@ George Washington 77-70
St Bonaventure 78-61
Next 3 games before their contest with URI:
@ St Joe
@ Dayton
George Mason
URI

TJ Cline has had an excellent year so far - a candidate for 1st team All A-10
The surprise has been the rapid emergence of De'Monte Buckingham, a 6'4" Freshman Guard who moved into the starting line up only 6 games ago
Buckingham already leads Richmond in Steals and in Blocked Shots and he is the 2nd leading rebounder
Last night vs St Bonaventure Buckingham had 18 points, 13 rebounds and 3 steals.
So Richmond may have some upside potential and you never know when you get off to a strong start like they have
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby rhodysurf » 9 months ago

TruePoint wrote:
reef wrote:Our game at Richmond is going to be very difficult


Idk, Richmond seems to be untested at this point. Their 4 A10 opponents are a combined 5-11.

I'm not saying that game won't be tough, because all road games in the league have the potential to be tough, but I don't think Richmond is a legit dark horse in the league based on what they've done so far.


Agreed, beating SBU without Jaylen Adams (pretty sure he didnt play) shouldnt really make anyone more scared of them. SBU cant play defense.
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adam914
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby adam914 » 9 months ago

So I know this is going to piss everybody off, but I would like to at least attempt to offer some perspective and not knee-jerk emotional reactions (of which I had plenty watching that game).

First off, tonight was a disaster. The team played absolutely awful and every coach and every player is to blame for not being ready to play tonight and Dan is at the top of that list. No excuse for it. Losses happen, but they barely even showed up tonight. That absolutely can't happen anymore. But it's time to put this one behind us and move on.

Now, with that out of the way, the world is not ending just yet despite how frustrating tonight was. Beating Dayton and VCU are pretty much must wins at this point. But the below outcomes for the rest of the season leave us with a 13-5 record and a 28 RPI. This includes a few more disappointing losses to Richmond, UMass and LaSalle again, all on the road. Lose to Dayton or VCU and you are in the mid to high 30 range which is not going to get it done.

Again, I understand tonight was a disaster, no excuses for it. An already tough task just got even tougher and this team is running out of chances to turn it around quickly. But there is still a scenario where the numbers can end up looking good, even without running the table or anything like that.

Massachusetts - WIN
@Duquesne - WIN
@Richmond - LOSS
St. Bonaventure - WIN
George Washington - WIN
@Davidson - WIN
@Massachusetts - LOSS
Dayton - WIN
Fordham - WIN
@George Mason - WIN
@La Salle - LOSS
VCU - WIN
@Saint Joseph's - WIN
Davidson - WIN
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby rambone 78 » 9 months ago

Adam, sure.......if they do that, then things are OK...


but do you really think they'll do that? It's getting MUCH harder to believe it.

And if Hassan's not right......
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby UCH21377 » 9 months ago

Adam, I get what you're saying, but what in our performance this year so far would make anyone think we can actually perform to that level going forward?
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby adam914 » 9 months ago

UCH21377 wrote:Adam, I get what you're saying, but what in our performance this year so far would make anyone think we can actually perform to that level going forward?


Tonight was the first game all season, outside of Duke who is clearly way way better than us, that we were not within at least 5 points of winning. I put more weight in that than I do in our abysmal performance tonight.

I guess my point is that the level we need to perform to isn't some ridiculous run of like 10-15 straight wins. But we do need to beat two very good teams at home.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby adam914 » 9 months ago

rambone 78 wrote:Adam, sure.......if they do that, then things are OK...


but do you really think they'll do that? It's getting MUCH harder to believe it.

And if Hassan's not right......


Would I put money on them doing it? Probably not. But it wouldn't shock me if they did either.

Hassan is a legit concern right now in my opinion. He did not look right to me in the Dayton game or tonight.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby josephski » 9 months ago

Hopefully we pull it off although I'm still pretty skeptical about the numbers this RPI forecast is putting out. Right now they have us going 5-3 against teams with 51-100 RPI. Only problem is we're 0-4 based on their current projections with only one game remaining in the 51-100 range so I'm not sure how we'll get to 5-3.
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reef
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 9 months ago

Screw the damn RPI does anybody really think we are going to be favored in the rest of our games ?? If you believe that you are smoking some good stuff
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby theblueram » 9 months ago

Per ESPN, our RPI is now #57.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby josephski » 9 months ago

RPI forecast has now been updated and has us with an expected RPI of 43.1 and an expected record of 20-10.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby rambone 78 » 9 months ago

That is NIT numbers.

I think it's 50-50 we do that.

If the LaSalle game turns out to be an aberration.....then 12-6 is realistic. Any more close to that "effort" and even that is a pipe dream.

And if Hassan isn't better soon......
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby STC » 9 months ago

josephski wrote:RPI forecast has now been updated and has us with an expected RPI of 43.1 and an expected record of 20-10.


Very Baronesque!
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby Rhody15 » 9 months ago

20-10.

What a joke that would be.

"Potential Final Four Sleeper."

I laugh every time I remember that article.
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reef
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 9 months ago

Only Ram fan 85 pick 20-10 record out of 71 people everyone else thought we win 21 or more
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby RoadyJay » 9 months ago

Expected RPI now at 42 and we've tumbled down 16 spots to 49 in the kenpom rankings.

On bracketmatrix.com we are still an 11 seed but we are barely hanging on as we are now in just 31 of 63 brackets.

The definition of bubble.

Need to go 10-3 the rest of the way to get our rankings back in the 30s.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby RhodyKyle » 9 months ago

With this news, I wonder how much stock the selection committee will put in the RPI rankings.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... new-metric
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reef
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 9 months ago

Very interesting stuff doesn't go into effect until next season though
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ATPTourFan » 8 months ago

Today's RPI: 47
Expected RPI 37.7

If you plug in a win vs Richmond, Expected RPI is back to 30.

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reef
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 8 months ago

Ok let's get that RPI in the 30s again
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby RhodyNJ » 8 months ago

We jumped up to 35 today. I'll take it.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby UCH21377 » 8 months ago

I wish they would do us a favor and just scratch us off the list.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby Billyboy78 » 8 months ago

This thread is now irrelevant.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby adam914 » 8 months ago

Billyboy78 wrote:This thread is now irrelevant.


Not that it'll matter much, but in the scenario I laid out above with our RPI ending at 28 I had us losing this game. Of course that also included winning 6 of the next 7 and after seeing how they played tonight that seems quite unlikely.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 8 months ago

We are just not that good don't even deserve to be on the bubble
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby STC » 8 months ago

Funny thing about "expected RPI", nothing ever goes as expected for URI.

Well, except the annual disappointment.
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reef
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 8 months ago

Where are we now low 50s ??
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ATPTourFan » 8 months ago

48 presently. Awaiting new expected RPI later today.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ATPTourFan » 8 months ago

Today's RPI: 47
Expected RPI: 42.7


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Because our recent losses have hurt our advanced analytics rankings for offense and defense, that lessens our game-by-game chances of winning which also lessens the expected RPI. It adds additional uncertainty (we can all relate to that!).

That said, Expected RPIs entering A10 tournament could be anywhere from 21 to 126. Of course, I don't think it's likely we win out, so let's say true best case is a road loss @ UMass or something. That brings us to around 25.

Let's say we win vs GW, @ Davidson and @ Umass. That puts our expected RPI at 32 going into the Dayton game and remainder of A10 schedule.

Let's say we lost @ Davidson and @ UMass but beat each at home and won the other games. That sets up a 27 Expected RPI going into A10 Tournament.

A few road losses aren't going to kill us, but we have to win our home games which both help RPI and also log wins against VCU/Davidson/Dayton to help make our resume better.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby RoadyJay » 8 months ago

Excellent work ATP
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby RhowdyRam02 » 8 months ago

After last night we have an RPI of 43 and an expected RPI of 40.5. They give us a 66.24% chance of going into the conference tournament with a record of 20-10 (6-3 the rest of the way) and an RPI of 38.8 or better.

Now people will of course bring up St. Bonaventure's RPI. Two big differences between us and them last year.
1. Last year they went into Selection Sunday with a kenpom ranking in the upper 70's and their best kenpom ranking of the season was 60 on February 7th. We're currently at 48th and have been anywhere from 33-51. RPI isn't the only metric they look at and kenpom likes us a good deal better than they liked St. Bonaventure last year.
2. As much as people don't like the hype talk, it stands to benefit us on Selection Sunday if we're close. It's a lot easier to snub a St. Bonaventure team that had no buzz then it is to snub a team that spent some time in the top 25, was in everyone's preseason bracket and is on the bubble. The narrative will be that URI struggled in the middle of the season, but figured things out down the stretch in conference playand is entering the tournament on the rise.

Of course all of this is predicated on us taking care of business down the stretch.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby rambone 78 » 8 months ago

All these numbers mean squat imo if we don't take at least 2 out of the next 3 games....with one of them against Dayton.

It would be nice going into the A10T if we were still a candidate for an at large.....that would be a victory in itself after our stumbles in the OOC and a couple league games.....

This Davidson game is just another opportunity to win a big game on the road.....as this is the toughest remaining road game imo.....find a way to win it dammit.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 8 months ago

In that 20-10 scenario we better make the a10 finals then it will be close
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ATPTourFan » 8 months ago

rambone 78 wrote:All these numbers mean squat imo if we don't take at least 2 out of the next 3 games....with one of them against Dayton.

It would be nice going into the A10T if we were still a candidate for an at large.....that would be a victory in itself after our stumbles in the OOC and a couple league games.....

This Davidson game is just another opportunity to win a big game on the road.....as this is the toughest remaining road game imo.....find a way to win it dammit.


I completely agree with Rambone here! Make a note of it.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby rambone 78 » 8 months ago

Amazing, ATP.....ha ha...

My guess is that we lose to Davidson and beat UMass and Dayton.....just enough to stay alive going into the final stretch of games.....

You know, we want to keep the suspense going a little while longer......
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ramfan85 » 8 months ago

IMO, the Davidson game is a "must" win. It's our best opportunity for a quality road win. It's a game that can go either way. They're not VCU. But, they're not St. Louis, either. Have to have it.
The RPI talk is all well and good. But, as the committee loves to say after they pass over a team, it's only one factor.
If we're a tournament team, we need this game.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ATPTourFan » 8 months ago

Results have been favorable since we last played and our numbers crept up a bit:

Current RPI: 44
Expected RPI: 40.3

RPIForecast has the Davidson game as 51% chance for a Rhody victory, so results in that game will significantly affect our Expected RPI. When we win games where there is high confidence we will win, the needle moves little.

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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ATPTourFan » 8 months ago

Just jumped from 44 to 37 in the Live RPI with tonight's big win.

New expected RPI won't be calculated until mid-day Saturday, but it should be down around 31.
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reef
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby reef » 8 months ago

This is very good news. Back on the bubble now
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ATPTourFan » 8 months ago

Today's RPI: 39
Expected RPI: 36.1


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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby rambone 78 » 8 months ago

ATP, is that assuming we'll win out, since we will be favored in all of our remaining games?

I know there's some variance based on our opponents' results.
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby TruePoint » 8 months ago

No, the way it calculates it, it doesn't give you credit for a win or a loss each game. It's based on probability of a result. If you use the wizard tool and have URI win oh they will finish with a much better RPI than 34.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby rambone 78 » 8 months ago

Got it.....
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ramster
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby ramster » 8 months ago

Rambone,
You don't even have to run an analysis, they have the record options and the resulting RPI and the probability of hitting that record in a table at the beginning.

To win out: 23-7 record: 21.4 resulting RPI: 5.4% probability of going 23-7

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-2017 RPI watch

Unread postby rambone 78 » 8 months ago

Never took the time to look at it.....very informative......thanks ramster.
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