2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Obadiah
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by Obadiah »

Some observations on attendance:

- The announced crowd at La Salle game of 3,753 is the fourth straight game where crowd size was under 4,000. You have to go back to Baron's last season to find such a streak.

- YTD average attendance now trails last season by almost 200 which equates to a revenue loss of about $20K.

- It would take a miracle to raise the current average of 4,368 to the level of the lowest prediction in the contest, so this contest is practically over with BleedBlue87 in a very strong position.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

Unless a lot of people are coming from UMass, it will likely be 5 in a row.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by RF1 »

URI never listed the attendance for the St Joe's game and its own official average(3,938) counts the number as 0 for that game. Using the 3,880 above, the ytd average would be 4,369. As noted, that is lower than LY after two A-10 games. Given how the season has not met expectations, I do not think we will see a big uptick. I would expect to see similar numbers to last year for the remainder of the schedule.


RHODE ISLAND HOME ATTENDANCE 2016-17 YTD
OPPONENT | ATTENDANCE | TO DATE | AVERAGE
Dartmouth | 6,052 | 6,052 | 6,052
Marist | 4,021 | 10,073 | 5,037
Brown | 5,630 | 15,703 | 5,234
Belmont | 4,626 | 20,329 | 5,082
Old Dominion | 4,250 | 24,579 | 4,916
Holy Cross | 3,537 | 28,116 | 4,686
William & Mary | 3,570 | 31,686 | 4,527
St. Joe's | 3,880 | 35,566 | 4,446
La Salle | 3,753 | 39,319 | 4,369


RHODE ISLAND HOME ATTENDANCE 2015-16
OPPONENT | ATTENDANCE | TO DATE | AVERAGE
American | 5,089 | 5,089 | 5,089
Valparaiso | 4,881 | 9,970 | 4,985
Cleveland State | 4,721 | 14,691 | 4,897
Rider | 3,320 | 18,011 | 4,503
Holy Cross | 3,442 | 21,453 | 4,291
Providence | 7,678 | 29,131 | 4,855
Houston | 3,633 | 32,764 | 4,681
Iona | 3,645 | 36,409 | 4,551
St. Louis | 4,517 | 40,926 | 4,547
Richmond | 4,017 | 44,943 | 4,494
La Salle | 3,872 | 48,815 | 4,438
Fordham | 4,195 | 53,010 | 4,418
St. Joe's | 6,907 | 59,917 | 4,609
George Mason | 3,951 | 63,868 | 4,562
Dayton | 6,105 | 69,973 | 4,665
Duquesne | 5,112 | 75,085 | 4,693
UMass | 5,113 | 80,198 | 4,718
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reef
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Jeez can't blame the fans for staying away watching a bad product on the floor
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by RhowdyRam02 »

Umass should see an elevated attendance number due to being part of the mini plan. Also, a Sunday afternoon in January with no Patriots game to go against should result in more UMass fans making the trip. Obviously not great for home court advantage, but good for revenue
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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I will guess about 5300 ??
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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My guess is people stay away in droves.......
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Lots of school groups today.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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ATPTourFan wrote:Lots of school groups today.
I've often wondered why they don't open up the upper levels at low prices to get kids/families/ new fans in the building. Even 5$/ticket, they get some food, maybe a beer for Dad, maybe you hook up some new fans.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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A surprising 6,202 for a game during break with no students on campus after one of the worst home losses in some time. Biggest home crowd to date for the season.


RHODE ISLAND HOME ATTENDANCE 2016-17 YTD
OPPONENT | ATTENDANCE | TO DATE | AVERAGE
Dartmouth | 6,052 | 6,052 | 6,052
Marist | 4,021 | 10,073 | 5,037
Brown | 5,630 | 15,703 | 5,234
Belmont | 4,626 | 20,329 | 5,082
Old Dominion | 4,250 | 24,579 | 4,916
Holy Cross | 3,537 | 28,116 | 4,686
William & Mary | 3,570 | 31,686 | 4,527
St. Joe's | 3,880 | 35,566 | 4,446
La Salle | 3,753 | 39,319 | 4,369
UMass | 6,202 | 45,521 | 4,552
Last edited by RF1 7 years ago, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Had to be the mini-plans right? And a slight uptick for UMass.
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ramster
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by ramster »

Nice crowd today. Enthusiastic, supportive.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by josephski »

adam914 wrote:Had to be the mini-plans right? And a slight uptick for UMass.
Probably helped being on a Sunday afternoon as well.
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Obadiah
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by Obadiah »

The season's average is 4,552, now slightly higher than last year's total through ten home games of 4,494. BleedBlue87 remains in a strong position to win attendance contest.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Nice crowd I am sure mini plan helped and glad it was an entertaining game and a win
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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adam914 wrote:Had to be the mini-plans right? And a slight uptick for UMass.

Mini plan for sure was a big factor. While there were some UMass fans there, they did not seem to be anywhere near the numbers of some past years. They have filled nearly all of Section 303 in other years.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by RF1 »

Biggest crowd of the season on hand versus St. Bonaventure. A Saturday afternoon conference game with students back that was also part of the mini plan packages all were contributing factors.

RHODE ISLAND HOME ATTENDANCE 2016-17 YTD
OPPONENT | ATTENDANCE | TO DATE | AVERAGE
Dartmouth | 6,052 | 6,052 | 6,052
Marist | 4,021 | 10,073 | 5,037
Brown | 5,630 | 15,703 | 5,234
Belmont | 4,626 | 20,329 | 5,082
Old Dominion | 4,250 | 24,579 | 4,916
Holy Cross | 3,537 | 28,116 | 4,686
William & Mary | 3,570 | 31,686 | 4,527
St. Joe's | 3,880 | 35,566 | 4,446
La Salle | 3,753 | 39,319 | 4,369
UMass | 6,202 | 45,521 | 4,552
St. Bonaventure | 6,757 | 52,278 | 4,753
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Really good turnout. If we could somehow win our next 3 games.....we could get 7000 for Dayton?

That imo would make a win far more likely.
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Billyboy78
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

If we keep winning and get a lot of students back, I think we should sell out Dayton, VCU and Davidson on senior night, all mini-plan games.
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reef
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Avg should get over 5 k soon
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Sad.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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A crowd of 5,190 show up for a snowy weeknight game versus GW. The season average is now at 4,789 as it continues to rise now that A-10 Conference play is here.


RHODE ISLAND HOME ATTENDANCE 2016-17 YTD
OPPONENT | ATTENDANCE | TO DATE | AVERAGE
Dartmouth | 6,052 | 6,052 | 6,052
Marist | 4,021 | 10,073 | 5,037
Brown | 5,630 | 15,703 | 5,234
Belmont | 4,626 | 20,329 | 5,082
Old Dominion | 4,250 | 24,579 | 4,916
Holy Cross | 3,537 | 28,116 | 4,686
William & Mary | 3,570 | 31,686 | 4,527
St. Joe's | 3,880 | 35,566 | 4,446
La Salle | 3,753 | 39,319 | 4,369
UMass | 6,202 | 45,521 | 4,552
St. Bonaventure | 6,757 | 52,278 | 4,753
George Washington | 5,190 | 57,468 | 4,789
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Obadiah
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by Obadiah »

BleedBlue87 continues to have inside track to win this, but spooky dog and BFC have a outside shot. Attendance at Fordham game will be the swing factor.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Obadiah wrote:BleedBlue87 continues to have inside track to win this, but spooky dog and BFC have a outside shot. Attendance at Fordham game will be the swing factor.

Given that two of the remaining four games are on weekends featuring prime time opponents (UD and VCU) and are part of two mini plans, I would think it safe to say attendance will be good (should be better than the UMass and SBU games which were part of mini plans and were the best attended games to date). I would also think that the season ending game on a weekend Saturday vs Davidson should see good numbers. The only game which might not have great attendance is Fordham as you have alluded to. It is a weak opponent on a Wednesday night and not part of any of the three mini plan options.

I would estimate that URI might get around 25,000 more fans for the last four games (an average of 6,250). That would raise the season average to 5,154. This number is less than all the predictions. An average of near 7,000 for the last four games would be needed to beat the lowest prediction of 5,321.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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I would hope the Davidson game wouldn't just have good numbers, it should be a sellout. Hassan deserves a packed house on his senior night.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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RhowdyRam02 wrote:I would hope the Davidson game wouldn't just have good numbers, it should be a sellout. Hassan deserves a packed house on his senior night.
Going to be interesting if EC walks out.

If he does, I'll assume that means he's gone at the end of the year.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

If we keep winning, I expect that 3 of the last 4 will be sellouts. If we beat UMass, Dayton will sell out, and so on.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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EC better come back next year. I can't see him getting drafted if he leaves
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

That seems like a given at this point, no?
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Could grad transfer if he's on pace for that. And he won't get drafted but maybe he'll decide he's better off in Europe/D League.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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I don't see him leaving....one of the main reasons Dan didn't take the Rutgers job was supposedly because of his loyalty to EC.....now it's time for EC to return the favor....plus next year he should be 100% healthy and could finally have the kind of year that would get him into the 1st round.

Just my two cents here.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by RhowdyRam02 »

I agree with you Rambone, I was just pointing out scenarios that would make his return not a given.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Yeah he could leave....one more scenario that we wouldn't mind seeing.....

the team gets hot, makes the dance and wins a couple games....and EC leads the way...of course that's not at all likely given that he's still not 100%....but we can dream anyway.....
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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EC doesn't owe anyone any favor at all.

He has the right to leave if he feels it is in his best interest to pursued a professional career.

I believe he does leave. Just because he may not get drafted, doesn't mean he can't go pro over in Europe.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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It may come down to if we dance or not then though I do believe one more year of college hoops is his best choice
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

We can start eliminating people from the high side of this contest. Easy math to see what max attainable average can be if we amazingly sold out all remaining games.

5506 is the maximum season average achievable if we assume 7657 is the max sell-out number for final 4 games. Amazingly disappointing.
Last edited by ATPTourFan 7 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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ATPTourFan wrote:We can start eliminating people from the high side of this contest. Easy math to see what max attainable average can be if we amazingly sold out all remaining games.

5506 is the maximum season average achievable if we assume 7657 is the max sell-out number for final 4 games. Amazingly disappointing.
Attendance may have been doomed before the first game was even played due to the unsexy OOC schedule. Furthermore, I think the three OOC losses to PC, Valpo, and Houston hurt attendance momentum and reduced the numbers for the later december and january games.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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ATPTourFan wrote:We can start eliminating people from the high side of this contest. Easy math to see what max attainable average can be if we amazingly sold out all remaining games.

5506 is the maximum season average achievable if we assume 7657 is the max sell-out number for final 4 games. Amazingly disappointing.
Very disappointing. And we might need an overflow crowd of students to save us Friday night. The students have been the one attendance bright spot all year.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by rambone 78 »

The OOC losses hurt and the games during the break didn't help.....

It's unrealistic to expect a 6000+ average almost any year here.....if we dance and win a couple there, then maybe that could happen next season.

The casual URI fan just doesn't go to games against OOC cupcakes, most of the time anyway. It's almost like there's 2 strikes against us reaching that number right off the bat.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by ramster »

So at some point the attendance becomes not unexpectedly disappointing but it just is what it is. College basketball fever in Rhode Island is just not what it was back in the 70's, 80's or 90's
Last edited by ramster 7 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by rambone 78 »

ramster, there's a reason there's no fever....no dance in 17 years..........

Maybe if we could somehow dance for a couple of years....might bring the temperature up a bit......
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by ramster »

Rambone,

Look at PCs attendance in December, they had 4000 for several games. It is not the same state for Rhode Island College Basketball. It is not only attributable to the 17 year drought.
BC to Big East then to ACC
UCONN to Big East then to AAC
PC to Big East then New Big East
URI to A10
UMASS to A10
Northeastern to CAA
etc
etc

The good old days were when there was the Rankings for the Best teams in New England. This was a very exciting ranking that came out every Monday.
and with teams joining these powerful conferences like Big East and ACC here we have our own Rhode Island Rams the #1 ranked team in New England and nobody really knows, acknowledges or cares.
The rivalries that used to exist with URI playing PC twice per year every year, UCONN, Boston College, Northeastern, Holy Cross, etc are really no where near what they used to be if any games at all are played between us. Only UMASS remains from the old New England College Basketball years and 1 game per year with PC.

You can blame the drought all you want but my guess is even when the drought is over you will still struggle to fill up the Ryan Center on a regular basis
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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Yes that's true looks like we will be lowering our predictions for attendance next year
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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I don't think it really fair to compare today to 30+ years ago when it comes to attendance. Back then there were not the variety of entertainment options. There were no exclusive sports networks such as ESPN. Only a limited number of games were televised then. It is a completely different landscape today.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Guys, I agree that attendance won't be what we were hoping for, even if we finally break through and become a regular or semi regular NCAAT team....but some schools consistently fill their arenas even when they aren't great....or come close anyway.....remember back when we had Keaney the most we could get was about 3800......

I think an average attendance given all the factors plus and minus that affect our program......of about 5500 is reasonable going forward.

We're never going to match a school like Dayton or even VCU most likely. No matter the capacity of the arenas involved.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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eehhhh even the Dayton board is complaining about the Student Section being only half full. It happens everywhere nowadays
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

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A very good crowd of 7,394 came out for Dayton on a cold Friday night despite poor road conditions and hard to find parking to see Rhody once again choke away a big game. Given another unfortunate but predictable ending, I predict that the attendance for the UD game will be the high point for the season. Given an NCAA at large bid is now highly improbable, I do not think there will be sufficient enthusiasm to move the average above the lowest prediction of 5,321. My best guess is that the final regular season attendance number will end in or around 5,100. The final official attendance (different from the contest rules as it includes postseason) for the full season may very well be lower. Given NIT home games may likely occur, the attendance from such games counts and they will probably lower the full season average.



RHODE ISLAND HOME ATTENDANCE 2016-17 YTD
OPPONENT | ATTENDANCE | TO DATE | AVERAGE
Dartmouth | 6,052 | 6,052 | 6,052
Marist | 4,021 | 10,073 | 5,037
Brown | 5,630 | 15,703 | 5,234
Belmont | 4,626 | 20,329 | 5,082
Old Dominion | 4,250 | 24,579 | 4,916
Holy Cross | 3,537 | 28,116 | 4,686
William & Mary | 3,570 | 31,686 | 4,527
St. Joe's | 3,880 | 35,566 | 4,446
La Salle | 3,753 | 39,319 | 4,369
UMass | 6,202 | 45,521 | 4,552
St. Bonaventure | 6,757 | 52,278 | 4,753
George Washington | 5,190 | 57,468 | 4,789
Dayton | 7,394 | 64,862 | 4,989
Last edited by RF1 7 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by Obadiah »

The loss to Dayton will certainly dampen enthusiasm for attendance at the Fordham game which I viewed earlier as the big swing factor. Right now it is hard not to conclude that the attendance contest will be won by BleedBlue87, who was the most pessimistic of the 71 contestants in his prediction!
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by Obadiah »

The poor attendance at the Fordham game of 3,791 means that even if URI sells out its remaining two game, the average attendance would come to 5,247, a figure lower than all 71 contestants. This contest is essentially over and BleedBlue87 with the most pessimistic prediction of 5,321 is declared the winner.
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Re: 2016-17 Home Attendance Prediction Summary

Unread post by reef »

Wow less than 3800 ??

The fans have spoken loud and clear and I love it !!
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