KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

We've shown, that at times, we can play well offensively.....not nearly often enough obviously....and especially not toward the end of games...except for Cincy of course....

We just have to do it more and more often...if we do, we're an NCAA tourney team...if not...there's the rub.......can't get any simpler than that.

There's been a lot of mention about 'playin like they did against Cincy'...but the more hoops that gets played...the more that seems like a small sample aberration than it does the norm. I hope they play better...but how long can the 'if play like against Cincy' talk go on?

Are people going to be saying that in February?

Pretty impressive still an 8 seed at this point

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:

Blue Man wrote:

BPR2010 wrote:Lunardi's updated bracket today has us as an 8 seed, down a seed from last week. As has been repeated many times here over the past week, last week's losses weren't daggers, but just missed opportunities to solidify our resume. To me, this was fairly reflected in the update today.

That being said, going forward without Hass (for who knows how long), will be quite a test and challenge for this team. Interested to see how we perform without him and then once he returns.

BPR SHUT UP YOURE AN IDIOT! WE'RE NOT MAKING THE NCAA'S! STOP WITH YOUR BLIND OPTIMISM! WHERE WERE YOU THE LAST WEEK WE DIDN'T GET INVITED TO THE NCAA'S AND HURLEY CONTINUES TO FAIL US!!

THE SEASON IS OVER! JIM BARON IS OUR COACH!

BM...take it easy......like most teams, THEY ARE NEITHER 'IN' OR 'OUT' YET'.

That may have gone juuuust a bit over your head lol

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:There's been a lot of mention about 'playin like they did against Cincy'...but the more hoops that gets played...the more that seems like a small sample aberration than it does the norm. I hope they play better...but how long can the 'if play like against Cincy' talk go on?

Are people going to be saying that in February?

Well we most likely need to play like we did against Cincy to beat VCU and Dayton. Cincy's a good team but it's not like we beat Duke or Kansas and even then we only beat them by 5 on a neutral court with a crowd advantage. If that Cincy game ends up being clearly the best game we play all year then I don't think we make the tournament.

I agree that the more we see from this team the less likely it is but that doesn't change the fact that we need to play as well or close to as well as we did against Cincy to be in the tournament. Otherwise we'll see the same team we did two years ago in conference, beat the majority of other non tournament teams and lose to the tournament teams.

josephski wrote:

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:There's been a lot of mention about 'playin like they did against Cincy'...but the more hoops that gets played...the more that seems like a small sample aberration than it does the norm. I hope they play better...but how long can the 'if play like against Cincy' talk go on?

Are people going to be saying that in February?

Well we most likely need to play like we did against Cincy to beat VCU and Dayton. Cincy's a good team but it's not like we beat Duke or Kansas and even then we only beat them by 5 on a neutral court with a crowd advantage. If that Cincy game ends up being clearly the best game we play all year then I don't think we make the tournament.

I agree that the more we see from this team the less likely it is but that doesn't change the fact that we need to play as well or close to as well as we did against Cincy to be in the tournament. Otherwise we'll see the same team we did two years ago in conference, beat the majority of other non tournament teams and lose to the tournament teams.

Just curious,
Did you go to the Cincinnati game?

ramster wrote:

josephski wrote:

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:There's been a lot of mention about 'playin like they did against Cincy'...but the more hoops that gets played...the more that seems like a small sample aberration than it does the norm. I hope they play better...but how long can the 'if play like against Cincy' talk go on?

Are people going to be saying that in February?

Well we most likely need to play like we did against Cincy to beat VCU and Dayton. Cincy's a good team but it's not like we beat Duke or Kansas and even then we only beat them by 5 on a neutral court with a crowd advantage. If that Cincy game ends up being clearly the best game we play all year then I don't think we make the tournament.

I agree that the more we see from this team the less likely it is but that doesn't change the fact that we need to play as well or close to as well as we did against Cincy to be in the tournament. Otherwise we'll see the same team we did two years ago in conference, beat the majority of other non tournament teams and lose to the tournament teams.

Just curious,
Did you go to the Cincinnati game?

Yes, why?

josephski wrote:

ramster wrote:

josephski wrote:
Well we most likely need to play like we did against Cincy to beat VCU and Dayton. Cincy's a good team but it's not like we beat Duke or Kansas and even then we only beat them by 5 on a neutral court with a crowd advantage. If that Cincy game ends up being clearly the best game we play all year then I don't think we make the tournament.

I agree that the more we see from this team the less likely it is but that doesn't change the fact that we need to play as well or close to as well as we did against Cincy to be in the tournament. Otherwise we'll see the same team we did two years ago in conference, beat the majority of other non tournament teams and lose to the tournament teams.

Just curious,
Did you go to the Cincinnati game?

Yes, why?

Because you say we beat Cincinnati by 5 on a neutral court with a crowd advantage. To be honest, I would not say there was very much of a crowd advantage. When the Duke - Penn State game ended people flooded out of that arena. I felt like I was swimming against the tide. I was even a bit embarrassed when our game started and there were so many empty seats in the arena. I would call it a URI victory on a neutral court myself. The fact that it was close to URI and we didn't have to travel far likely helped the team but it's not like the place was rockin Rhody Fans. Unfortunately URI fans who did not attend missed a great victory and the celebration after the game was great. So maybe a partial crowd advantage.

Agreed, it was more empty than I expected and it was no where to close to the Ryan Center in terms of a crowd advantage. With that said I still think it was better than your average neutral site game. A partial crowd advantage is still a crowd advantage.

Agreed

Crowd advantage your kidding right we were in the corner baseline. Duke got the tickets to play in the Tourney. joeski say something remotely positive about this team it will give you more credibility. Where do these people come from? Another son of DOOM!

GO RHODY!

JUST DANCE BABY!

GO RHODY!

Significant drop this week in Lunardi's bracket. We are now on the Last 4 Byes line, and a 10 seed trending down. To put this into perspective, at this point in time, Providence is at the same exact level as us. Who honestly would've thought that 1 month into the season, our tournament prospects would be at the same level. You could honestly make the argument PC has better potential with all of the quality opponents they will be facing in conference play. Many more opportunities than we will have for sure.

As has been said all week, we are now at the point where we simply cannot afford any bad losses. Limited chances for true quality wins puts a lot more pressure on us going forward. Strap in guys, it's going to be an interesting next 3 months and I have a feeling it'll be quite bubbly.

We are now on the 11 seed line. Not listed in last 4 byes, last 4 in, first 4 out or last 4 out. That means we are predicted to win the conference tournament. If not..........

Unfortunately for us, the downward trend continues with Lunardi's latest projection. We are now on the "Next Four Out" line, which puts us as the 5-8 teams that miss the cut. This team really needs to go on a run to open up conference play, and can't afford to miss out on quality wins any more. With the A-10 being down this year, so many other bubble teams in power conferences have more opportunities than we do for quality wins in conference. Not saying it can't be done, but they really need to start playing at an elevated level starting tomorrow night.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

ACC and B1G are now accounting for 19 of the team's in the field. I can't believe they are really going to get that many teams in.

Look, URI's fate is not going to be decided by Joe Lunardi in December. We have the opportunity to earn our way into the tournament over the next 10 weeks. In this edition of the weekly snapshot of the field, VCU jumped us for the other A10 spot. URI has a better RPI, a better SOS, a better win on its resume and fewer "bad" losses. But we are being held back by 1-4 against the top-100, which is a result of blowing those road games to PC, Valpo and Houston. We know those games leave us little margin for error, but if we win 8 out of the 12+ top-100 games we have left (12 regular season + presumably at least one in A10T) then we will be in the tournament. If we don't, we probably won't be. We know this, and whether Joe Lunardi moves us a little up or down or sideways between now and the end of the season really doesn't matter. We get 8 more top-100 wins and we are in.

TP,
I thought Lunardi's last version had 3 teams from the A10 in? Now showing only 2 and worse yet VCU is in a play in game.

VCU was in the "Next Four Out" category last week.

You are right, I was thinking of 2 weeks ago when VCU was the play in game, URI and Dayton were both in. I missed the next week Bracket when he took the A10 down to 2 teams.

On Lunardi's December 29th bracket we're listed as the 8th team left out, on his Twitter 1/2 we're listed as 3rd to last in, and he witnessed the carnage live and in person last night. We're trending the right way, just keep it up.

Sweet glad Lunardi was there to witness that butt kicking we gave to his squad

Not surprising he is now including us after witnessing his beloved team get a beat down.

Except that Lunardi's post was written the day before we played St. Joe's

Yes but he's a prognosticator, so he knew we were going to show well against SJU

reckless jake wrote:Except that Lunardi's post was written the day before we played St. Joe's

Missed that, great observation, that means we could be off the bubble where the grass is greener right?

Rhodymob05 wrote:

Observations - obviously way too early but fun to speculate:

A10 with 3 teams but:
VCU among last 4 in and a 12 Seed play-in game with TCU in Sacramento
URI among last 4 in and a 11 Seed play-in game with Illinois in Buffalo
Dayton also in as a 11 seed

Our best win was Cincinnati - a 6 Seed - This win could prove to be very important in the final selection process if it is close
Of our 4 losses:
- Duke - a 2 seed
- Houston 1st 4 out - has a HUGE game this Saturday vs Cincinnati at Houston
- Valparaiso not listed. Oakland winning the Horizon League
- PC not listed
- No other or our scheduled opponents in his Bracket making the dance

Valp not listed is a mystery to me, solid wins over alabama, BYU a ranked Rams team and a 11-3 record. losses to @ #6 Kentucky @#4 Oregon with one bad loss. Speaking of Oakland, they are playing each other tomorrow for first place. Similar to Dayton game.

Lunardi just picking Oakland to win the Horizon. Big game this Saturday as Oakland plays at Valpo. Valpo favored by 1.3 points at home as per rpiforcast. Horizon is one of those 1 Bid Leagues.

Oakland beat Georgia, which is pretty impressive.
But I would be surprised if anybody in that league can take the crown from Valpo. No way they stop Peters

PeterRamTime wrote:Oakland beat Georgia, which is pretty impressive.
But I would be surprised if anybody in that league can take the crown from Valpo. No way they stop Peters

Valpo lost in the semifinals last year of their conference tournament and they also lost this year at home to Santa Clara. They're a good team but Peters doesn't put them that far above the competition and all it takes is one bad game in the conference tournament.

Anyone know what would be better for our RPI, Cincy winning at Houston on the road or Houston knocking off Cincy at home?

Rhody Guy wrote:Anyone know what would be better for our RPI, Cincy winning at Houston on the road or Houston knocking off Cincy at home?

My guess would be Cincy on the road. That's our one marquee win, we need Cincy to win as much as possible.

Oakland is 12-3 and is led by Martez Walker who was from Detroit Pershing HS and went to Texas then transferred back home to play at Oakland the past 2 years. Walker scored 30 points in Georgia game and is averaging about 18 ppg as a 6'6 guard.
The Oakland @ Valpo game is televised this Friday night at 9pm ESPN2 and immediately follows our 7pm Dayton game also on ESPN2.

Rhody15 wrote:

Rhody Guy wrote:Anyone know what would be better for our RPI, Cincy winning at Houston on the road or Houston knocking off Cincy at home?

My guess would be Cincy on the road. That's our one marquee win, we need Cincy to win as much as possible.

Cincy winning is better for our resume. As for our RPI, I don't think it makes any difference (but as a disclaimer I am not mathematician).

Rhody15 wrote:

Rhody Guy wrote:Anyone know what would be better for our RPI, Cincy winning at Houston on the road or Houston knocking off Cincy at home?

My guess would be Cincy on the road. That's our one marquee win, we need Cincy to win as much as possible.

I am wondering whether or not a road loss to Houston for Cincy wouldn't help more because losses on the road aren't penalized as heavily. Can that scenario be run into the forecaster? I'm thinking it wouldn't allow us to see how that game would impact us, only the 2 involved directly.

Want Cincinnati to win for 2 reasons:
1. already stated, Cincinnati is our marquee win. Top 25 team that we want to stay in the Top 25. The higher they go in the Top 25 the better for URI
2. Houston is on the bubble, last 4 out. We do NOT want to be on the bubble with Houston since we lost head to head with them

TruePoint wrote:

Rhody15 wrote:

Rhody Guy wrote:Anyone know what would be better for our RPI, Cincy winning at Houston on the road or Houston knocking off Cincy at home?

My guess would be Cincy on the road. That's our one marquee win, we need Cincy to win as much as possible.

Cincy winning is better for our resume. As for our RPI, I don't think it makes any difference (but as a disclaimer I am not mathematician).

As far as weighting, both Cincy and Houston have an equal weighting on our RPI. However, since Cincinnati is expected to have a better RPI they will have a greater impact on our RPI than Houston.

As TP said, Cincinnati winning will look better to the committee. They are just about a "lock" to make the tourney and the committee likes wins against other tourney teams. Houston has a decent shot too but not as good as Cincinnati's chances.

Best case, Cincinnati beats Houston in both head-to-head match-ups and they both win all of their other games

Thanks Jay. Someday when you have some time you will have to explain to me the underlying math of why the impact of one team that we played beating another team we played the same number of times could be more or less. I would have thought that any movement in one direction due to team A winning would be offset exactly by the movement in the opposite direction of team B losing. I'm guessing (hoping!) that this zero-sum assumption is wrong due to some really complicated actuarial-level maths and not just because I'm a big dummy!

Rhody Guy wrote:Anyone know what would be better for our RPI, Cincy winning at Houston on the road or Houston knocking off Cincy at home?

Cincy winning. The higher they climb, the better our win looks.

Also, pretty sure a road win the the most valuable outcome in RPI

I guess my thinking accounted for the road win by assuming a home loss was as bad as a road win is good (staying with the zero-sum assumption), so Houston would be negatively effected in an equal and opposite direction as Cincinnati regardless of what the outcome of the game is.

Again, though, I will defer to just about anyone on this since I have studied neither RPI math, specifically, or any math beyond 12th grade, generally. So I accept that explanation, I'm just surprised by it.

Edit: whoops, think I responded to a post that has since disappeared!

Because the outcome of the Cincy-Houston game does not change the composition of those teams' schedules, there is no net effect either way.

IF it was a situation like in Mohegan where one team wins and earns a game vs a better quality opponent, then that would change the sum Win-Loss counts of our opponents' opponents'.

Since RPI looks at the combined Win-Loss records of our direct opponents (and also for our opponents' opponents), it would be a wash.

A cincy win on the road would count as 1.4 wins and Houston would get 1.4 losses.

A cincy loss on the road would count as 0.6 losses and 0.6 wins for Houston.

I went back and forth on this thinking that you were rewarded for road wins but not penalized for a home losses. I looked at the formula and now ATPs post and realized you're absolutely right, the games head to head would be a wash.

The "resume" argument is what matters here. I think we want Cincinnati to have the best possible record/rpi/ranking.

Now that we're into January, the Bracket Matrix Project is being updated. This site polls dozens of online bracketologists and combines their assessments into one composite seeding list.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

ATPTourFan wrote:Now that we're into January, the Bracket Matrix Project is being updated. This site polls dozens of online bracketologists and combines their assessments into one composite seeding list.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

That is amazing info

There's some good info there, but there's a lot of garbage because it seems like anyone can submit a bracket. Something called GMoney's Sports Page has his bracket listed even though it's just some random blog and he's been below average over at least the last three years. It's one thing to not have URI in your bracket, but to have a team like Penn State as one of the next teams out and have them rated above URI is just straight up clownshoes stuff.

Ultimately there's a committee but good info and insight on our current position.

josephski wrote:

PeterRamTime wrote:Oakland beat Georgia, which is pretty impressive.
But I would be surprised if anybody in that league can take the crown from Valpo. No way they stop Peters

Valpo lost in the semifinals last year of their conference tournament and they also lost this year at home to Santa Clara. They're a good team but Peters doesn't put them that far above the competition and all it takes is one bad game in the conference tournament.

I think he puts Valpo pretty far above most of the competition except for Oakland. I'm well aware of how often top seeds can be knocked out of their conference tournaments.
However, have a pretty good probablility of winning the regular season title. Which they typically have done lately.

ATPTourFan wrote:Now that we're into January, the Bracket Matrix Project is being updated. This site polls dozens of online bracketologists and combines their assessments into one composite seeding list.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Looks like this has us as basically the last team in at the moment.

Latest espn bracketology updated today has URI as the top team in the "last four in". We basically jumped 8 or so teams. Lets keep it up ay.