2016-17 Bracketology

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RoadyJay
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by RoadyJay »

22 wins.

10 more wins and we're in.

10 is the magic number.
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bigappleram
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by bigappleram »

bottom line is this, the A10 is super down this year and we have by far the best OOC win in the league (Cincinnati). It's not even close. And that win will continue to look better and better as UC dominates the AAC (which is also down this year with UConn sucking).
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

RJ, that's 22 in the regular season, right? I agree as long as we beat at least one of VCU and Dayton......

TP, we will have a much better idea after Wednesday night......imo that has to be a win.

We look like world beaters against teams like St. Louis and Duquesne.....mid pack teams like UMass and LaSalle on the road...we have to win those too.

The teams we tend to blow out are the ones who have no inside game to speak of...the ones that do give us much more trouble.

Richmond only has one big guy [Cline] that should be tough....they play 4 guards like we do a lot of the time...maybe that's why we match up better with them.
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Rhody15
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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If we don't win the conference tourney, I think 24-9, counting the conference tournament, gets us an at large.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by RoadyJay »

No. That's 22 total wins including the conference tournament. 14-4 and 0 tourney wins, 13-5 and 1 tourney win, 12-6 and 2 tourney wins. However you like.

Admittedly I'd like at least one tourney win even if we went 14-4 in league. But from purely a numbers perspective we should be in.

Rhody15... 24 wins is an absolute lock for a bid but not necessary.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

I think if we went 14-4 in conference and lost our quarterfinal game....then we could be in trouble a la the Bonnies last year.

We are not a P5 team remember.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by bigappleram »

Unlike Bonnies we beat a Top 25 team in the Non Con, their best OOC win was Siena I think. Massive difference.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Agreed about the OOC BAR. Still would have been nice to have beaten Valpo and PC though, as we all know.

But the Bonnies won a few against the top A10 teams too. We have to do the same.

RJ thinks 12-6 plus 2 A10T wins gets us in....I think it gets us left out. 12-6 means we lost a couple more to mediocre teams and probably Dayton and VCU too. Not good enough.

If we were ever to get to the A10T final...just win the damn thing and erase all doubt.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by bigappleram »

Agree we need to back up the Cincy win with 2-3 other signature wins in conference - Dayton, VCU, @Lasalle, @Davidson. Win all 4 and we can afford 1-2 losses to mediocre teams.
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josephski
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by josephski »

bigappleram wrote:Unlike Bonnies we beat a Top 25 team in the Non Con, their best OOC win was Siena I think. Massive difference.
Bonnies also had 3 top 25 rpi wins with two of those being on the road. Their non conference was obviously really weak but it also shows how little respect the selection committee has for the a10. If we can't win against Dayton or VCU at home then I have a hard time believing 13-5 will get us in, 14-4 might not even get us in if we lose both those games.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by RoadyJay »

22 wins will give us an RPI of ~30. Yes, this is the same RPI as St. Bonaventure but the similarities end there.

We had a very strong non-conference schedule and they did not. Their best win in the non-conference was against #138 ranked Buffalo. We beat #19 Cincinnati. They had one very bad loss to a #266 ranked La Salle and two other losses to #128 Siena and #156 Duquesne. We have no loss worse than that, let's not lose to Fordham at Home. Their kenpom ranking was #88. Ours will be in the 30s if we reach 22 wins. They did have some nice conference wins and we will have some also.

That's why the committee is looking to move away from the RPI... because two teams that have similar RPIs can have very different resumes.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

We have to take things game by game...we have little margin for error as everyone knows by now.

Win Wednesday night...and I will be happy to continue the "what if" scenarios.....

If we don't, there are not many "what ifs" left.
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PlayMikeMotenMore
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by PlayMikeMotenMore »

1) The number of wins is irrelevant...it's who you beat.
2) You cannot count on being "in" based on a number. You have no idea how other conference tournaments will turn out, with potential non-deserving teams potentially winning the conference tourney and taking away potential slots (a slot for URI) from at-large teams.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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That's true PMMM. But I'm saying 22 wins based on our schedule, who we will play, who we've already played, who we've beaten, who we've lost to. It's not 22 wins in a vacuum. It's 22 wins for this team based on their schedule.

10 or more wins in our remaining games, I believe, gets us in.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by UCH21377 »

PMMM, so if we beat Dayton, VCU, Lasalle, but nobody else, we're in? I doubt it, so the total wins do mean something, don't you think? I don't believe the 22 will get us there necessarily; then it depends on the other factors you mentioned. 23 or 24, IMHO, will get us in, unless a highly unusual set of circumstances play out. Isn't the real question wether we can play well enough to pull it off? Beating richmond would be a nice step in that direction.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Da_Process_Survivor »

no chance in hell 22 total wins gets us in. regardless of the schedule, that's a 1 way ticket to getting Bonaventure'd
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

We've proven we can beat bad teams...and look good doing so.

We still, other than that Cincy game, haven't proven we can beat the better teams.....

We keep getting sucked back in when we play well, and then we drop a turd in the punch bowl soon after that. Just about always.

That has to stop. Like you just said 21377, Wed. night would be a good step.
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ramster
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ramster »

I was watching the PC - Villanova Game Saturday at noon on FOX.
They had a little game they play where they display stats for 3 different teams without the team names and the idea is which of these 3 potential bubble teams would you pick. They had Jay Wright introduce the "game" in a cameo shot where the 2 broadcasters had to pick - blind to the team identities.

Included RPI, current record, conference record, other info, To help them select......

At any rate, the two guys picked the first team among the 3 listed. They uncovered the team name and it was NC State.

They then uncovered the next 2 to show who they were and they were Georgia and Rhode Island. They kind of scoffed at Rhode Island even being among the 3 choices.

Meanwhile, after this selection "game" at about 1:30pm Saturday,
- URI was favored by 8.5 and cruised to a 21 point 90-69 win on the road
- NC State lost at home to Wake Forest 93-88
- Georgia lost to Texas A & M on the road 63-62

Latest RPI Live Forecast on Monday Jan 23:
- URI current overall = 47, projected = 38.1, conference (12-6), overall (20-10), record against top 1-25 = (1-2)
- NC State current overall = 106, projected = 104.7, Conference (13-7), overall (16-15), record against top 1-25 = (1-7)
- Georgia current overall = 45, projected = 51.4, Conference (11-7), overall (17-13), record against top 1-25 = (1-5)

So even though Georgia and NCState have played 6 and 8 top 25 teams respectively compared to URIs only 3, all 3 teams have 1 win.
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josephski
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by josephski »

RoadyJay wrote:That's true PMMM. But I'm saying 22 wins based on our schedule, who we will play, who we've already played, who we've beaten, who we've lost to. It's not 22 wins in a vacuum. It's 22 wins for this team based on their schedule.

10 or more wins in our remaining games, I believe, gets us in.
Who have we beaten? Obviously Cincy is a great win and then our next best win is Belmont. From the current projections we have two more chances at wins in the 1-50 range and two more chances in the 51-100 range. We've managed to avoid the bad losses but we really need a couple more decent wins. If we go into selection Sunday and our three best wins are Cincy, Belmont and Saint Bonaventure I'm not sure how anyone could be confident we're definitely getting in as an at large.
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ramster
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ramster »

The Cincinnati win is strong for URI and could help tip the scales if things are close.........
- A 10 has played 21 games vs Top 25 teams and the Cincinnati win is the only win for the A10
- Cincinnati is ranked 15th in current RPI and is projected to be 14.6 end of season. Not just Top 25 but Top 15
- Cincinnati is projected to finish 27-4 (17-2)

Better marquis win for us than these teams with their projected RPIs Houston(62.0),Valpo(61.9),PC(78.4) or Dayton(29.6) would have been. Duke projects to 14.5, or just about exactly Cincinnati.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

ramster, it normally would look good for URI in that scenario....

but you're missing something......Georgia and NC State are P5 schools....that's a strike against us....and then remember the year Texas got in with like a 2-12 record against the top 50?

It's unfair, but when P5 and mid major teams are compared...it's a different set of rules for us and them. Schools like Texas get credit for just PLAYING more top 25's and 50's even if they lose most of them...we have to win more of them.

Such is the life of a mid major....we are not likely to get in if we are squarely on the bubble. Dayton a couple of years ago was thought to be safely above the bubble...and they almost didn't get in.

Them's the facts, jack.

One more thing...people have to stop putting all URI's eggs in one Cincy basket.....that by itself isn't getting us anything unless we win a few more against the top 100...and while we're at it, a couple of top 50's....Dayton and VCU...how the hell do we belong in the conversation if we can't beat the teams we might be on the bubble with?

We haven't, at this point, done anywhere NEAR enough to be considered, numbers be damned.

I'm not being negative, I'm telling the God's honest truth.
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ramster
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ramster »

I don't disagree with you, Rambone, I'm not missing it. That's my point in saying what happened in the PC - Villanova telecast. Indicated by the way these announcers scoffed at Rhode Island even being among the 3. Not unusual. It's not fair, but it is what it is.

It's a tough road, but we would be much worse off if we did NOT beat Cincinnati. Or all our games, the Cincinnati game is likely going to turn out to be the best quality win we could ask for other than Duke.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

I will give you that ramster. If we didn't have that win...we would be dead in the water.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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At the end of the day 2 A10 teams (hopefully) will dance. We need to be in the top two. Three seems unlikely at this point. I know there is more to it then that, but IMO that's where we need to wind up.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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That loss to Fordham was a huge hit to VCU.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

VCU has a knack for coming up big when needed....just look at their performances in the A10T.......

Everyone in this conference has or will throw in a stinker or two......but the ones who keep that to a minimum and beat the other top teams will win out in the end.

Dayton and VCU have proven that many times the last few years.

It's time for us to come up big in the big moments and join them.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Rhody83 »

UCH21377 wrote:At the end of the day 2 A10 teams (hopefully) will dance. We need to be in the top two. Three seems unlikely at this point. I know there is more to it then that, but IMO that's where we need to wind up.
That is it in a nutshell. Rhody needs to finish in the top 2 in the A10. If the top 3 are close it could come down to who makes the conference final. The third team will be on the bubble and that doesn't look good for the A10 this year. The lower number of wins being thrown around by RJ most likely don't put Rhody even in the top 3.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

12-6 conference record is no guarantee of a bye until Friday in the A10T.....

It's REALLY hard to win the tourney playing 4 days in a row...although I think VCU did it once.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by RoadyJay »

remaining_schedule.png
remaining_schedule.png (7 KiB) Viewed 1296 times
I took a look at the top teams and their remaining A10 schedules. Per kenpom, La Salle has the easiest road ahead with a relatively easy road schedule remaining. La Salle and Dayton do have one fewer home game remaining than us, Richmond, and VCU. That could make a difference.

We have the most difficult schedule remaining, although you could argue VCU has the most challenging remaining schedule due to having a very difficult road schedule ahead.

On the plus side a more challenging schedule ahead means the most opportunity of any team to build our NCAA tournament resume.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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UCH21377 wrote:At the end of the day 2 A10 teams (hopefully) will dance. We need to be in the top two. Three seems unlikely at this point. I know there is more to it then that, but IMO that's where we need to wind up.

The number...shall beeee....3 no more...no less...:

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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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NC State who was in the bubble may have just punched their ticket with a come back win at Duke.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by twisted3829 »

they have some really bad loses (by 51 to UNC, lost to #180 BC, Georgia Tech) and nothing other than this win vs Duke. Their best OOC wins are Georgia Southern and St Joe's
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rhodysurf »

twisted3829 wrote:they have some really bad loses (by 51 to UNC, lost to #180 BC, Georgia Tech) and nothing other than this win vs Duke. Their best OOC wins are Georgia Southern and St Joe's
Their projected RPI before today was like over 100
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Rhody83 »

twisted3829 wrote:they have some really bad loses (by 51 to UNC, lost to #180 BC, Georgia Tech) and nothing other than this win vs Duke. Their best OOC wins are Georgia Southern and St Joe's
I love the "nothing other than this win AT Duke."
Rhody has nothing other than a neutral site win against Cincy.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

Rhody83 wrote:
twisted3829 wrote:they have some really bad loses (by 51 to UNC, lost to #180 BC, Georgia Tech) and nothing other than this win vs Duke. Their best OOC wins are Georgia Southern and St Joe's
I love the "nothing other than this win AT Duke."
Rhody has nothing other than a neutral site win against Cincy.
NC State is in...mark it down.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

A little early to say.......
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PlayMikeMotenMore
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by PlayMikeMotenMore »

Rhodymob05 wrote:NC State who was in the bubble may have just punched their ticket with a come back win at Duke.
Whoa nellie, you might want to tap the brakes. A win over Duke...that's big for their resume. But it hardly punches their ticket.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by PlayMikeMotenMore »

UCH21377 wrote:PMMM, so if we beat Dayton, VCU, Lasalle, but nobody else, we're in? I doubt it, so the total wins do mean something, don't you think? I don't believe the 22 will get us there necessarily; then it depends on the other factors you mentioned. 23 or 24, IMHO, will get us in, unless a highly unusual set of circumstances play out. Isn't the real question wether we can play well enough to pull it off? Beating richmond would be a nice step in that direction.
Not sure I said that. My point is a target for a number of wins means little in the big picture. Who do you beat? Where do you beat them? They're 12-6 right now, right?

OK, for the sake of discussion, for the remainder of the regular season let's say they beat: Davidson twice, at UMASS, Fordham, Bonnies, at GMU, at LaSalle, GW, at St. Joes., at Richmond = 22 wins!!

Losses to: VCU, Dayton = 8 losses

22-8 going into A-10 tourney...who would feel good about their NCAA chances with that resume? "Not I," said the Little Red Hen.

(then let's say, for discussion's sake, they beat Bonnies in A-10 quarters and lose to VCU in semis...now they're 23-9. You think they're in with their 23 wins?)

So my point is 22, 23 wins...doesn't mean squat. They've got their work cut out for them and I would say the odds are not in their favor at this point.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Rhodymob05 »

I'm exaggerating slightly with NC state punching their ticket already, but it's ridiculous that they're even in the same position at Rhody, no true road wins before tonight and got destroyed by everyone on the road. Uri had a great win but we do have a few good wins as well only as one bad loss.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by reef »

I don't want to be sitting on the bubble with 22 wins that's putting it in the committee hands to much

23 I think gets us in

24 is a no brainer in
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

NC State now has an expected RPI of 87 following Duke win.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rhodyruckus »

NC State is that classic average team which all of a sudden gets bubble talk when beating a good team on the road. In the old Big East, Providence would be in that position as well where they are a middling team with around a .500 record but happen to beat a top 15 Georgetown or Syracuse team. You're bound to run into one if you happen to be in a major conference and have like double digit opportunities to get one or two quality wins, even while playing the sisters of the poor on your non-conference schedule. But yet every year it feels like we see there is a major program with a 1-9 or 2-8 record against the top 50 get in over a non-major with a 1-2 record against the top 50. Who really took the most of their opportunities?

(This is a general commentary and not to compare State to URI, because Rhody has obvious flaws as well and I wouldn't beat our chest that we'd definitely beat NC State in a neutral court matchup.)
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Like I said before, and I agree with PMMM, we need 22 wins in the regular season WITH at least a win against Dayton or VCU.

Win both and have 22 wins, then I think we have a much better chance of getting in, especially with a win in the A10T quarters.

We have almost no margin for error in the remaining 12 games. That's the kind of pressure that will only increase as the games go on, IF we're still in position later on.

This team and coach has shown they don't react well to pressure up until now. Either that changes and fast [starting tomorrow night] or all of this conjecture is a big waste of time.

We should be in every game from here on out, if we can continue to play like we did late in the UMass game and the Duquesne game.

But we have to finish when the games are close.....not just make FT's but make plays in general.....that's what we haven't seen yet, but will have to happen to have any chance.

Think about this. Fordham of all teams, has beaten VCU at home and UMass on the road. Can we do that? If they can, we should.

There really are no excuses if we fail to do that. Seriously.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

I think we have to hold serve at home the rest if the way.

That will give us the RPI and a better looking resume.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Agreed, ATP. But we've got to beat somebody or two who's decent on the road too.

We currently have zero good road wins.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by TruePoint »

"We've got to win all our home games plus not lose any road games."

Reasonable take
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

I didn't say win ALL of them, although that would be nice.

Talk about twisting someone's words. Whatever you think makes you look good, TP.

Or are those "alternate facts?"
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ramster »

TruePoint wrote:"We've got to win all our home games plus not lose any road games."

Reasonable take

TP,
I looked back and don't see where anyone said this. Why did you put in "quotes"? Did you just misread or trying to stir the pot?
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Thanks ramster for calling him out.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by kal-65 »

with 68 spots in the touney,counting the 4 play in games,32 conferences have an automatic bid

right now only 14 conference leaders have a rpi of 50 or less---hence 18 [32-14] are above 50

my math [68-18= 50] indicates that around 48 to 50 will be the last ones in

what changes are lesser conference upsets,and the lobbying of the p-6 conferences to get above 50 rpi teams in the tourney.--DOES THE A-10 HAVE ANYONE ON THE SELECTION GROUP
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