2016-17 Bracketology

Talk about the men's team, upcoming opponents and news from around college hoop.
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RF1
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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I second that. Kill this silly thread.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

I feel bad for all the loyal fans of this program......especially ramster....he's a good man and deserves so much more.

Some day buddy...you know it will happen and so do I......but who knows how long it will take. Not with this coach, for sure.

I agree...close it.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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Close this, unless we're talking about PC's tournament hopes. As of right now, their resume kicks ours to the curb and even worse, they're in a rebuilding year. Pathetic.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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Delete it. Don't lock.

The word bracketology should be nowhere on this board.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

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UCH21377
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by UCH21377 »

Let's leave it open to discuss PC's chances. They have a coach that can get them there.
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BPR2010
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by BPR2010 »

ramster wrote:
Rhody15 wrote:Can anyone provide legitimate reasons why you think we still have a chance at an at large bid? Or how we can have confidence in winning out, with road games at GM, at La Salle, and home VCU?
I'll take shot at it Rhody15:
This is from today RPI Forecast for the remaining 6 games
2-15 Fordham (218.3) HOME 94% (16.9 favored)
2-18 George Mason (113.7) AWAY 69% (5.5 favored)
2-21 La Salle (100.9) AWAY 69% (5.3 favored)
2-25 VCU (25.8) HOME 61% (3.0 favored)
3-1 Saint Joseph's (153.8) AWAY 72% (6.5 favored)
3-4 Davidson (117.1) HOME 77% (8.1 favored)

Record/RPI/Probability
22-8 (28.1) 15.34% - Must win all 6 remaining games
21-9 (33.7) 34.73% - Must win 5 of 6 remaining games

Then the A10 Tournament which will be critically important to NCAA Bid determination.
So we have a 61.8% probability of finishing the A10 Season with a 33.7 or better RPI
The A10 Conference Performance will be a large determining factor as to whether we get in or not.

Why do I think we can still get an NCAA Bid?

Let's compare the 2 games with Dayton:
Game 1 @ Dayton:
- URI lost by 3 points 67-64
- Hassan Martin only played 20 minutes due to still recovering from Quad injury. 3-5 FG, 1-2 FTs, 5 rebounds, 1 block, 2 assists, 1 steal, 7 points
- Jared Terrell 31 minutes, 2-5 FG, 2-3 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 4 TOs, 3 fouls, 7 points
- Kuran Iverson 32 minutes, 6-12 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 4 TOs, 3 fouls, 14 points
- Jeff Dowtin only played 14 minutes, 2-3 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 TO, 3 fouls, 5 points
- Kendall Pollard 31 minutes, 8-16 FGs, 2-5 FTs, 5 rebounds, 18 points
- Scoochie Smith 38 minutes, 8-13 FGs, 3-5 FTs, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 TO, 21 points
- Xeyrius Williams 15 minutes, 0-2 FGs, 2-2 FTs, 2 rebounds, 2 points
- Charles Cooke - DID NOT PLAY


Game 2 Home vs Dayton

- URI lost by 1 point 75-74
- Hassan Martin played 32 minutes. 4-6 FG, 7-9 FTs, 5 rebounds, 3 block, 2 TOs, 2 fouls 15 points
- Jared Terrell 36 minutes, 4-10 FG, 5-8 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 2 steals, 2 TOs, 2 fouls, 15 points
- Kuran Iverson 33 minutes, 7-12 FGs, 3-4 FTs, 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 1 blocks, 1 TOs, 2 fouls, 20 points
- Jeff Dowtin only played 23 minutes due to foul trouble, 2-4 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 2 blocked shots, 3 fouls, 5 points
- Kendall Pollard 33 minutes, 4-9 FGs, 8-10 FTs, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals, 1 block, 3 fouls, 18 points
- Scoochie Smith 33 minutes, 3-10 FGs, 1-2 FTs, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 3 TO, 4 fouls, 7 points
- Xeyrius Williams 19 minutes, 5-7 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 4 fouls, 13 points
- Charles Cooke - 36 minutes, 4-11 FGs, 5-6 FTs, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO, 3 fouls, 13 points
- If we don't get offensive goal tending on the EC shot late in the game we win, it's that close

Why do I think we will beat Dayton in the A10 Tournament?
- We played them very tough in both games - combined 4 points in 2 losses
- Our players know that they can beat Dayton
- The second game we played Dayton included Martin healthy. Iverson again had a solid game in the 2nd game with 20 points, 7 rebounds
- Smith was less effective going only 3-10 FGs - we played much better defense on him
- Cooke played the 2nd game with 13 points, 8 rebounds in 36 minutes - significant difference from 1st game when he DNP. But even with Cooke back and with WIlliams having an unexpectedly good game we still played Dayton tough and to the wire
- Williams has a much better game in the 2nd game with 5 rebounds and 13 points in 19 minutes
- Dayton is playing their basketball of the season, but so are we having won 6 of last 8

I think we beat Dayton in the A10 Tournament

As for VCU:
- They are led primarily by JeQuan Lewis averaging 15.6 ppg and 4.5 assists per game and by Justin Tillman averaging 12.5 ppg and 8.6 rebounds per game.
- I think we match up well against VCU and just as Dowtin has done a good job defensively against the likes of Pipkins of UMASS, Smith of Dayton, Gibbs of Davidson, I think he will limit Lewis from having a big game against us. I think Martin and Iverson match up well against Cox and Tillman respectively.

I think we take VCU on our home court as well as in the A10 Tournament
I appreciate the work you put into this, I really do. But it's really all for naught after tonight. Do our players even think they can beat a perennial doormat in Fordham right now?
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rodfromcranston
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

I hate to do this, but here's where our season
went after tonight.

[attachment=0]toilet.jpg[/attachment
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Gandy is back!!!!!!!! Oh wait......ha ha....good one Rod.
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reef
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by reef »

I want Eddie Cooley coaching us and DH going back to high school !!!
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Cooley had a good W-L record at Fairfield, but he couldn't get over the hump and win the big ones....PC took a chance and won....he has clearly improved as a coach. Yeah he's lost some tough ones, but he's winning more of them. And if they make the dance this year.....

I thought he wouldn't pan out.......and I thought DH would for us.......whiffed big on those......
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

rodfromcranston wrote:I hate to do this, but here's where our season
went after tonight.

[attachment=0]toilet.jpg[/attachment
Hate to disagree with such an awesome visual...but the difference between Rhody's season and that pic is...not much of the stuff in that pic actually went 'down the toilet'....
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

Even worse!
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ramfan85
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ramfan85 »

Just had a late supper. Thanks for the pic.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Thanks for "bringing that up" Rod........
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reef
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by reef »

If PC dances and we don't that will be the ultimate punch in the gut
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

Well, I felt "shit show" was appropriate,
so I showed you guys some shit!
I'm sure it stunk as bad as we did tonight.
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rambone 78
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

So I guess the excuse was we were so down after the Dayton loss we couldn't get it together for tonight.

What a load of shit. Sorry Rod!
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Joe »

Can somebody delete this thread?
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reef
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by reef »

Nobody post bubble scores anymore I don't care !!
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by BPR2010 »



While this was certainly the definitive nail in the coffin, our at-large hopes ended on a full season of missed opportunities and losing to bad teams. Glad to see we made a Bracketology headline on the national stage though!
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by RoadyJay »

I've been wanting to look at RPI as it relates to predictions on bracketmatrix.com... I know, it's bad timing that I just got around to it today.

For those of you who are not familiar with bracketmatrix.com they collect most bracketologists' opinions of how the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament bracket will look come Selection Sunday. There are currently 112 brackets that are combined/averaged into one overall bracket. For example, Syracuse currently appears in 89 of 112 brackets at an average of an 11 seed.

I mentioned previously that historically an RPI between 31-40 gives you a greater than 80% of making the tourney. I wanted to see if that % was holding true per bracketmatrix.com's prediction.

In the attached table you will see that only one of ten teams with an RPI between 31-40 is projected to be left out of the tourney. That team is Wake Forest. That means currently bracketmatrix.com predicts that 90% of the teams with an RPI between 31-40 will make the tournament.

How about an RPI between 41-50? Right now bracketmatrix.com is predicting that 80% of those teams will make the tournament with only Nevada and Tennessee being left out.

It's not until you get to RPIs of over 50 that team's chances drop off significantly.

Interesting to note that if you are a mid-major and you're not projected to win your conference then you better have an RPI of 31 or better. Otherwise, it looks like you are not getting in.
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UCH21377
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by UCH21377 »

Are you trying to depress us even more Jay? Hey did you run those foul stats from last night?
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by RoadyJay »

UCH21377 wrote:Are you trying to depress us even more Jay? Hey did you run those foul stats from last night?
Why would it depress you? We can still achieve an RPI of 29 if we win the rest of our regular season games and make it to the finals of the A10 tourney... ;)

Relax, relax, relax... I'm not saying it's going to happen... but it is mathematically possible.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

RoadyJay wrote:
UCH21377 wrote:Are you trying to depress us even more Jay? Hey did you run those foul stats from last night?
Why would it depress you? We can still achieve an RPI of 29 if we win the rest of our regular season games and make it to the finals of the A10 tourney... ;)

Relax, relax, relax... I'm not saying it's going to happen... but it is mathematically possible.
That's the spirit! Love it...now, where's that watch party on Saturday?
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reef
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by reef »

Are you sure we can get an RPI of 29 if we win out to a10 finals with our current RPI of 59 ??
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by RhowdyRam02 »

Winning out the regular season gets us to around 36. Probably have to win once against VCU or Dayton in the tournament to make the finals, so high 20's, low 30's sounds right.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

Ugh. I can't even play this game anymore when I have zero idea what team will show up each game.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ramster »

Same here, I can't do it at least without a week or two away.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

ESPN Bubble Watch post-Fordham
ESPN's Eamonn Brennan wrote:Adios -- for now, at least -- to Rhode Island. The Rams lost a one-point heartbreaker last week at home to Dayton, which was devastating for its opportunity cost. Wednesday's home loss to Fordham was just plain devastating. One of the few good things that could be said about Rhode Island's resume was its lack of bad losses; otherwise, just seven of its 16 wins came against teams in the RPI top 150. Now that Fordham has mucked that up, Rhode Island probably needs to win out to arrive at the A-10 tournament with a realistic at-large shot. Things could change, but for now, the Rams are gone.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Rhody15 »

Are we seriously still playing the RPI game?

RPI is only a small part of the puzzle, we don't pass the eye test, we have minimal good wins, and we just lost at home to FORDHAM.

We have ZERO shot at an at large bid.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by RhowdyRam02 »

I didn't say I think it'll happen or that it's worth following at this point. Reef asked a question and I answered it.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rhodylaw »

We need two wins over VCU/Dayton and we still have a chance. 3 top 30 wins will pass the eye test if we finish strong. I have zero confidence it will happen and we blew so many freakin chances this year already I am disgusted.

But I will not quit until the season is over, let's hope the team doesn't either
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by brady1 »

Running the table and getting to the A10 finals would be enough but does the team and Dan have the guts to do this.

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by luke »

Maybe it would help if we stop looking so far ahead. Maybe the players have been doing the same thing.
forget what needs to happen 4 games from now, focus on the game today only. That is what the players
have to do as well. Go out and win this game and then we can think about the next game.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

There is a narrative out there that could land URI squarely on the bubble. The committee accounts for injuries. Especially for a preseason top 25 team that beat Cincinnati on a neutral floor early. Was snake bitten, then got healthy and won their final 5 games. Make a finals appearance in Pittsburgh.

VCU doesn't have a Cincinnati win and they also lost to Fordham.

The Vtechs and teams like them losing down the stretch also help.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

Please don't let me get my hopes up for the VCU game.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by reef »

So what your saying is we have a chance !!!

I agree win out and make the A10 finals and we may dance not a slam dunk but in the conversation for sure
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Rhody15 »

Somehow we are the last team in on CBS' bracket.

Jerry Palm must have been drunk when he picked us as the last team in.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Joe »

As pathetic, heart-wrenching, and devastating as the Fordham loss was, we still have a chance at receiving an at-large. Thank God for preseason hype!
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Gonebarongone »

As I have said before, the bubble moves around. Could everything out of our control break our way and get in with a run to the A10 finals? Sure. This does seem to be a stronger bubble than in year's past so I would put the chance at this all going right at about 1%. If you add two 50/50 games to the last four according to Kenpom, you are looking at 3% to run the table. And then hoping things break right with other teams. We're better off just hoping everyone is at full strength and making a full run at the A10T. That's about 10x the more likely path to the dance.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ramster »

Rhody15 wrote:Somehow we are the last team in on CBS' bracket.

Jerry Palm must have been drunk when he picked us as the last team in.
He has URI and PC as his last four in.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

That is.... unexpected. Well, wouldn't that be crazy to send the Friars back to the house of horrors that is the University of Dayton Arena... with the Rams there to watch.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

Do you get NCAA credits for the first four? I have assumed that you do. I think that can work in teams favor. They get a game against a lessor opponent and get the $$. Then the next game they already have the jitters out.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by adam914 »

Seawrightspostgame wrote:Do you get NCAA credits for the first four? I have assumed that you do. I think that can work in teams favor. They get a game against a lessor opponent and get the $$. Then the next game they already have the jitters out.
Yeah definitely. You are in the tournament.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

adam914 wrote:
Seawrightspostgame wrote:Do you get NCAA credits for the first four? I have assumed that you do. I think that can work in teams favor. They get a game against a lessor opponent and get the $$. Then the next game they already have the jitters out.
Yeah definitely. You are in the tournament.
I just think thats an awesome way for programs like ours or below to back their way into 3 games of credits. By contrast you would have to make it to the Elite 8 for those credits.


That money makes things happen.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by PeterRamTime »

ramster wrote:
Rhody15 wrote:Somehow we are the last team in on CBS' bracket.

Jerry Palm must have been drunk when he picked us as the last team in.
He has URI and PC as his last four in.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
Too bad Palms brackets are never all that accurate.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by TruePoint »

It doesn't make any sense to keep worrying about the at-large scenarios. I guess we are technically not mathematically eliminated, but in order to get an at-large, we'd have to win out to the A10T final. If we get that far, might as well win it and remove all doubt. The path for URI realistically is to secure the double-bye and win three games in theee nights in Pittsburgh. That is the goal. If in the process of doing so you happen to win the next six games, maybe you could sneak in without winning the 7th. But I wouldn't count on it and at this point it is what's it's going to be. I felt URI has lost 3 different games already that they "needed" to win to get into the field as an at-large, and after each of those losses we moved the goal posts a little and calibrated a new scenario where it didn't totally kill us. Well, the goal posts can't move any further; they're pushing up against the wall. So forget about bracketology and worry about the A10T brackets because that's our last best hope.
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by rambone 78 »

I second that.....every time we start talking about what ifs we lose..........

Let's put it this way...the earliest anybody should start hoping for an at large is if we win both games this week....
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Re: 2016-17 Bracketology

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

rambone 78 wrote:I second that.....every time we start talking about what ifs we lose..........

Let's put it this way...the earliest anybody should start hoping for an at large is if we win both games this week....
Whoa...buddy...that borders on record-level optimism for you, isn't it? I like it!
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