2016-17 Bracketology

[josephski]

Glad you brought that up. St. Bona finished last season with a LRPI (road and neutral games only) of 51. URI is better even in an area that we perceive as a weakness - ours is 43.

The committee can always find a nit to pick. When you're dealing with 9, 10, 11, seeds, nobody's resume is going to be perfect. Bona had an almost unprecedentedly bad OOC schedule last year and they got dinged for it. I don't think URI has a similar egregious flaw.

Well the Cincy game is the only reason we're higher in that stat, Bonnies had two top 25 wins on the road and an overall road record of 8-5. I don't know if the tournament committee uses that stat but if they do I'm sure they'll see right through it.

Also the Bonnies non conference wasn't as bad as people make it out to be. They had a OOC SOS of 149 with an RPI of 30, here are some teams who made the tourney:

Cincinatti : 9 Seed : RPI 45 : OOC SOS 145
Providence : 9 Seed : RPI 38 : OOC SOS 225
Colorado : 8 Seed : RPI 34 : OOC SOS 139
Butler : 9 Seed : RPI 54 : OOC SOS 267
Pittsburgh : 10 seed : RPI 52 : OOC SOS 183
Michigan : Last 4 : RPI 58 : OOC SOS 203

If the selection committee doesn't want an a10 team in they'll find an excuse to not include them. Just because we have a better OOC SOS than the Bonnies doesn't mean we're safe.

[ramster]

Just a reminder article about St Bonaventure and Tulsa

http://www.a10talk.com/st-bonaventure-got-snubbed/

[Shinze88]

Glad you brought that up. St. Bona finished last season with a LRPI (road and neutral games only) of 51. URI is better even in an area that we perceive as a weakness - ours is 43.

The committee can always find a nit to pick. When you're dealing with 9, 10, 11, seeds, nobody's resume is going to be perfect. Bona had an almost unprecedentedly bad OOC schedule last year and they got dinged for it. I don't think URI has a similar egregious flaw.

Well the Cincy game is the only reason we're higher in that stat, Bonnies had two top 25 wins on the road and an overall road record of 8-5. I don't know if the tournament committee uses that stat but if they do I'm sure they'll see right through it.

Also the Bonnies non conference wasn't as bad as people make it out to be. They had a OOC SOS of 149 with an RPI of 30, here are some teams who made the tourney:

Cincinatti : 9 Seed : RPI 45 : OOC SOS 145
Providence : 9 Seed : RPI 38 : OOC SOS 225
Colorado : 8 Seed : RPI 34 : OOC SOS 139
Butler : 9 Seed : RPI 54 : OOC SOS 267
Pittsburgh : 10 seed : RPI 52 : OOC SOS 183
Michigan : Last 4 : RPI 58 : OOC SOS 203

If the selection committee doesn't want an a10 team in they'll find an excuse to not include them. Just because we have a better OOC SOS than the Bonnies doesn't mean we're safe.

I'm not a big fan all the RPI metrics that can be sliced and diced to make an argument and apparently so is the NCAA committee. Teams from the A10 are not getting the benefit of the doubt over a P5 team and thats just the way it is. The bottom line is St. Bonaventure had no "resume" worthy wins and they had some bad losses as well (Siena, Hofstra). They had Davidson beat in the first round of the A10 last year and choked away the game which likely would have put them in.

[Da_Process_Survivor]

Glad you brought that up. St. Bona finished last season with a LRPI (road and neutral games only) of 51. URI is better even in an area that we perceive as a weakness - ours is 43.

The committee can always find a nit to pick. When you're dealing with 9, 10, 11, seeds, nobody's resume is going to be perfect. Bona had an almost unprecedentedly bad OOC schedule last year and they got dinged for it. I don't think URI has a similar egregious flaw.

Well the Cincy game is the only reason we're higher in that stat, Bonnies had two top 25 wins on the road and an overall road record of 8-5. I don't know if the tournament committee uses that stat but if they do I'm sure they'll see right through it.

Also the Bonnies non conference wasn't as bad as people make it out to be. They had a OOC SOS of 149 with an RPI of 30, here are some teams who made the tourney:

Cincinatti : 9 Seed : RPI 45 : OOC SOS 145
Providence : 9 Seed : RPI 38 : OOC SOS 225
Colorado : 8 Seed : RPI 34 : OOC SOS 139
Butler : 9 Seed : RPI 54 : OOC SOS 267
Pittsburgh : 10 seed : RPI 52 : OOC SOS 183
Michigan : Last 4 : RPI 58 : OOC SOS 203

If the selection committee doesn't want an a10 team in they'll find an excuse to not include them. Just because we have a better OOC SOS than the Bonnies doesn't mean we're safe.

I'm not a big fan all the RPI metrics that can be sliced and diced to make an argument and apparently so is the NCAA committee. Teams from the A10 are not getting the benefit of the doubt over a P5 team and thats just the way it is. The bottom line is St. Bonaventure had no "resume" worthy wins and they had some bad losses as well (Siena, Hofstra). They had Davidson beat in the first round of the A10 last year and choked away the game which likely would have put them in.

and even with all that they were over .500 against the top25, top50 and top100

3-1 vs top 25
4-3 vs top 50
7-5 vs top 100

this year we are currently

1-1 vs top 25
1-2 vs top 50
4-6 vs top 100

[josephski]

Glad you brought that up. St. Bona finished last season with a LRPI (road and neutral games only) of 51. URI is better even in an area that we perceive as a weakness - ours is 43.

The committee can always find a nit to pick. When you're dealing with 9, 10, 11, seeds, nobody's resume is going to be perfect. Bona had an almost unprecedentedly bad OOC schedule last year and they got dinged for it. I don't think URI has a similar egregious flaw.

Well the Cincy game is the only reason we're higher in that stat, Bonnies had two top 25 wins on the road and an overall road record of 8-5. I don't know if the tournament committee uses that stat but if they do I'm sure they'll see right through it.

Also the Bonnies non conference wasn't as bad as people make it out to be. They had a OOC SOS of 149 with an RPI of 30, here are some teams who made the tourney:

Cincinatti : 9 Seed : RPI 45 : OOC SOS 145
Providence : 9 Seed : RPI 38 : OOC SOS 225
Colorado : 8 Seed : RPI 34 : OOC SOS 139
Butler : 9 Seed : RPI 54 : OOC SOS 267
Pittsburgh : 10 seed : RPI 52 : OOC SOS 183
Michigan : Last 4 : RPI 58 : OOC SOS 203

If the selection committee doesn't want an a10 team in they'll find an excuse to not include them. Just because we have a better OOC SOS than the Bonnies doesn't mean we're safe.

I'm not a big fan all the RPI metrics that can be sliced and diced to make an argument and apparently so is the NCAA committee. Teams from the A10 are not getting the benefit of the doubt over a P5 team and thats just the way it is. The bottom line is St. Bonaventure had no "resume" worthy wins and they had some bad losses as well (Siena, Hofstra). They had Davidson beat in the first round of the A10 last year and choked away the game which likely would have put them in.

I agree, I'm not trying to argue that St Bonaventure should or shouldn't have been in. I'm just trying to point out that RPI doesn't mean everything, nor does OOC SOS. Those who keep saying if we have an RPI in the low 30s we'll definitely get in have no clue if that's true or not. I personally would assume our chances would be pretty good, just like the Bonnies chances were pretty good, but no one here knows exactly what the selection committee is looking for so it's all speculation.

[theblueram]

Well, if they heavily weight good road wins, we have cause for concern.

[ATPTourFan]

Bona also had a KenPom rating of 88 on Selection Sunday. If Rhody has a 25-35 RPI and is more in than out on Selection Sunday, they will have a KenPom in the 30s most likely. There's no way they could get to 88 in KenPom this year while ALSO playing well enough to mimic Bona's RPI last year.

[UCH21377]

I think we can agree, for the most part, that 2 more losses is about all we could handle and expect at large consideration. And if those two losses were between Dayton, VCU, and Davidson, we might be in big trouble anyway. Tonight is huge any way you slice it. I hope we are up to the task!

[ATPTourFan]

Agree 100%. Informed take!

[URI2006_Andy]

Not sure if anyone has posted these links but this is a great site from the NCAA. Shows you the "team sheet" and "nitty gritty" reports that the selection committee sees. Looks like they print out a new report each day. In addition, you can go back to selection Sunday from last year and see the team sheets for all the bubble teams.

Website (you have to be in desktop mode)
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/default.aspx

Current nitty gritty report:
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... Gritty.pdf

[ATPTourFan]

Cool.

This site provides the selection sheet as well:
http://natstat.com/mbb/team/rhode-island-rams/rpi

[Roz]

Rhody down ten to #37 rpi

[RhowdyRam02]

Lunardi updated his seeds this morning and we improved two spots to third team out after the win last night

[Roz]

Bpi #32, best in a10

[Roz]

The cinncinnati win is huge, lets hope they win out

[PeterRamTime]

I had forgotten about Tulsa being put in the tournament when NOBODY had them in.
But the selection committee allllwaaays points out how important a good non conference schedule is.
Seth Greenberg and Virginia Tech got snubbed for having a bad non conference a few times.
You have to play good teams early on.
We did that and thank all things good we were able to beat cinci.

[PeterRamTime]

All the bubble teams seem to be winning today...

[NYGFan_Section208]

The 'Cuse....playing their way back in? Win over VA today...
3 straight solid wins...2 of those over Top 10 teams in an 8 day span....and the other against an NC State team that won at Duke...

[Rhody15]

Win the A10 tourney to leave no doubt!

[PeterRamTime]

Joe Lunardi with a bracketology update today.
Heres the bubble.

Last Four Byes
Kansas State
TCU
Wake Forest
Miami

Last Four In
Clemson
Indiana
Illinois State
Seton Hall

First Four Out
California
Tennessee
Georgia Tech
Rhode Island

Next Four Out
Michigan
Nevada
Georgetown
Syracuse

[Rhodymob05]

"POTENTIALLY BIG ROAD WIN FOR RHODE ISLAND" -Joe Lunardi......moves us up 3 spots, thats BS.

[rambone 78]

Other than Seton Hall, we're the only mid major on that list.......we need to be no worse than one of the last 4 byes to feel anywhere near safe on SS......

[RhowdyRam02]

"POTENTIALLY BIG ROAD WIN FOR RHODE ISLAND" -Joe Lunardi......moves us up 3 spots, thats BS.

It's one only one game and teams on the bubble were very good this weekend

[rhodysurf]

"POTENTIALLY BIG ROAD WIN FOR RHODE ISLAND" -Joe Lunardi......moves us up 3 spots, thats BS.

It was a game on ESPN so maybe he ws trying to hype the end of it for ratings.

Also, Its odd to me how muhc better Dayton and VCU are seen when Dayton's best win is URI and VCU's is Dayton

[ATPTourFan]

If they didn't win, and rest of bubble was winning, it would be been a significant loss. We know it was critical for numerical standing as well as the resume.

[rambone 78]

When you see the rpi's of some of the P5's that get bids....that tells us that rpi is not the be all and end all when it comes to who gets in.

Our record against the top 50 and 100, and our bad losses will likely be the biggest factor for us. Right now...not getting in....need to beat Dayton and VCU, or if we lose to one of them we have to beat at least one of them in the A10T......

No cupcakes left....even Fordham could be a pain in the ass.

[rhodysurf]

When you see the rpi's of some of the P5's that get bids....that tells us that rpi is not the be all and end all when it comes to who gets in.

Our record against the top 50 and 100, and our bad losses will likely be the biggest factor for us. Right now...not getting in....need to beat Dayton and VCU, or if we lose to one of them we have to beat at least one of them in the A10T......

No cupcakes left....even Fordham could be a pain in the ass.

Agree we need to beat them. But if you look at our resume next to VCU and Dayton there isnt much missing.

[rambone 78]

It's all about taking steps.....we've now beaten a decent team on the road...we're coming from behind late in games.....all good....

Now, keep going.....get and stay consistent, don't give back any gains....and above all now, start beating the 2 teams at the top of the league....

All must be done if we have any chance of dancing.

If the A10 only gets 2 in, we won't be one of them if we can't beat Dayton and VCU.

If we play with that "urgency" every game from here on out...we should get it done.

[ramster]

Dayton and VCU fans are saying the same thing about us.

Our Cincinnati win is better than any win VCU or Dayton currently has.

Dayton has a 3 point home court win against URI

These upcoming Dayton and VCU games are about as big as any games played at the Ryan Center since when? You have to honoretty far back.

Obviously A10 tournament results will be huge in the ultimate selection results.

[rambone 78]

ramster, not sure about conference tourney games having as much importance as the regular season.....

Maybe in our case if it's close between us and Dayton, or us and VCU.....if we were to lose to both of them in season...that's a big hole to crawl out of.

Sometimes a team who is already in will improve a seed line or two if they get hot in their tourneys. Teams who aren't close usually won't get in even if they get hot then. They have to win it all to get in otherwise.

[ramster]

Conference Wins are more important. Beating VCU and Dayton in Pittsburgh will be bigger that beating then in Kingston.

These are crucial games. We probably need to go to the Championship game.

You can also play yourself out of a bid in Pittsburgh as St Bonaventure did last year in Brooklyn with a tragic loss that left then hoping for a merciless which they didn't get.

Who is playing the best in the end is crucial - for a bubble team like URI the A10 tourney is mandatory to perform well in and separate from the Dayton, VCU and Richmond teams, and other surprise teams that could be UMASS? LaSalle? Davidson? St Bonaventure? Never know...........but we will soon enough

[RhowdyRam02]

These upcoming Dayton and VCU games are about as big as any games played at the Ryan Center since when? You have to honoretty far back.

Probably only have to go back two years to the VCU and Davidson games.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Joe Lunardi with a bracketology update today.
Heres the bubble.

Last Four Byes
Kansas State
TCU
Wake Forest
Miami

Last Four In
Clemson
Indiana
Illinois State
Seton Hall

First Four Out
California
Tennessee
Georgia Tech
Rhode Island

Next Four Out
Michigan
Nevada
Georgetown
Syracuse

Syracuse is in...let's not kid ourseles here...

[ramster]

Syracuse with a big game Tuesday night at bubble team Clemson.

[daytonflyerfan]

I have not been around in a while...you guys are right there on the edge this week on the Dance Card, 2 spots below the cut line.

Good luck! I am pulling for you.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[PeterRamTime]

Thanks DaytonFlyerFan! I always root for Dayton if they aren't playing Rhody.
But.
Hope your guys come out flat and we Marquis Jones you on Friday

[reef]

No more let downs let's beat UMass first

[ATPTourFan]

We're back onto 24 brackets on http://bracketmatrix.com/ and that puts us at 2nd in the Next 4 out.

Gotta win tonight or it's another set back.

[ATPTourFan]

ESPN Bubble Watch makes triumphant return!

VCU, Dayton, URI (respectively) are 1, 2, 3 in the Work Left To Do category.

[rambone 78]

Brennan is accurate with the A10 part, but he's really on the conservative side when it comes to a lot of teams in other conferences.

Cincy not a lock? Duke? Huh? And quite a few others. I would guess a lot of them will change very soon.....

[ATPTourFan]

His threshold for lock is literally "can this team lose all remaining games and still get in".

Lock means lock.

Should be In is what many casually call "lock".

[rambone 78]

I remember back in 2007 when we were in "should be in" when we were 19-3......

So I guess that's right, ATP.

[PeterRamTime]

I remember back in 2007 when we were in "should be in" when we were 19-3......

So I guess that's right, ATP.

2008 actually, started 19-3, finished 21-12.... don't think I've seen a collapse in college basketball quite like it. Except maybe our 2010 team that started off 19-3 in the " should be in" category, only to piss away the rest of the regular season.

[adam914]

Nothing here that we didn't already know, but another bubble update.

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/20 ... twitter_si

[ATPTourFan]

The SI guy seems excited to have a Big Dance full of mediocre Power 5 schools.

[rambone 78]

The powers that be want to eliminate the "Cinderella" factor...the very thing that lends excitement to the tournament.......

If that happens...watch the ratings decline.....

If they had their way, the tourney would only consist of P5 schools...money money money

[ATPTourFan]

Can't go too far down conspiracy lane, because our league IS weak this year as are others that would normally get more than 1 outside P5.

[gorhody89]

I do think having a name of "hurley" as our coach as well as preseason hype could help us a small small amount.

[rambone 78]

89, maybe, but we'll have to be really close to get that call.....the committee will have to include some mid majors in spite of themselves.....

ATP, all well and good, but a couple of years ago there was talk of the P5 schools breaking away from the NCAA and setting up their own deal....

Imagine if the mid majors and below ended up like football? 1-AA status?

I don't think it will happen, but.....anyway it will be interesting to see what the new "metrics" will be starting next year to determine the at larges....will it make it harder for conferences like the A10 to get bids?

If it's largely based on number of top 25-50 wins.....we're screwed....the P5's will always have more opportunities to get them...and what incentive will the bigger schools have to play mid majors? It's tough now...might become almost impossible.

[kal-65]

whats needed is the a-10 to get representation on the selection committee.

anyone know how that group is selected