2016-17 Bracketology

[Blue Man]

I gotta be honest I don't understand the thought that PC shouldn't be in regardless - nevermind above us.

They have 6 top 50 wins, they've played good basketball down the stretch, and they've done what they needed to. We should be rooting for them to take the damn big east title because I don't want to be on the cut line compared to a team with a higher SOS, 3x the top 50 wins, that also beat us head to head.

Marquette and Seton Hall also have resumes that scare me if we're compared to them on the cut line. We had our opportunities and didn't take advantage of them, that's our own fault - so I just don't understand being pissed that other teams did what they needed to do. That's not a bias. If we hit one more shot or make one more stop in the Dayton game at home, we aren't even in this situation.

Fortunately, we have every chance and the ability to win the next 3 - and honestly no reason not to. With the emotion and momentum we play with, we're rolling and I like our chances.

I think PC should be in over us right now but I don't think it's as clear cut as everyone thinks. First off, head to head doesn't carry much weight when you win at home. If so, maybe we should be in over VCU or Ohio state in over PC. Second two of PC's top 50 wins are not any better than us beating Davidson twice. Would it make a difference if we had 4 top 50 wins because we beat Vermont at home and Xavier at home when they didn't have Bluiett or Sumner instead of Davidson twice?

Head to head certainly isn't the only factor, there's no transitive property of basketball i.e. PC beat Villanova last year so they'd be the national champions. Head to head is definitely a factor when comparing to close teams on a cut line, as PC and URI.

It's false to say that 2 of PC's top 50 wins aren't better than us beating Davidson...because they are. By like 60 spots. That's an unfortunate fact. Just hating on PC here makes it look like we're all blind homers.

PC deserves to be in the tournament, hats off to them. We don't deserve to be in the tournament yet, but we should if we win on Friday. Again. We control everything. I'm tired of the at-large focus when we are clearly capable of being the best team in the A10.

[rjsuperfly66]

So now it is not about top 100 wins, it's about top 50 wins? Ok, if that is the case then just say so, so we can disregard top 100 wins and just focus on top 50 wins. We have 2 of those. People just making crap up.

BR, I think the problem is people just want to be able to look at a metric and say, "We rank here, so we should rank here when the bracket comes out," and we all know that's simply not the case. So they latch on to key terminology, Top 25, Top 50, Top 100, SOS, away record, ranked wins, etc. But it will never be that simple. Fluffing up a Top 100 metric doesn't hurt, but the committee is also smart enough to look at the full schedule, and won't likely be moved much by a team going from an RPI of 106 to an RPI of 99. It's about beating the good teams on your schedule and building a complete resume: Home, road, Top 25, Top 50, etc.

Also, the injury thing is overstated. Does a team have easier games when an opposing player is injured? Usually a yes. But the problem with that game is your trying to go out and basically simulate an outcome which is very difficult to do. That's why the committee doesn't really focus on that but rather the impact to the team with the injured player because that's the team that is going to be playing in the tournament. It also happens to be why I don't think Xavier is even close to a tournament team barring winning important games in the BET. That committee should look at Xavier, put the record up post-Sumner, and then close their case-file and huck it in the garbage.

[SmartyBarrett]

That's why the committee doesn't really focus on that but rather the impact to the team with the injured player because that's the team that is going to be playing in the tournament. It also happens to be why I don't think Xavier is even close to a tournament team barring winning important games in the BET. That committee should look at Xavier, put the record up post-Sumner, and then close their case-file and huck it in the garbage.

100% agree with this. That said, I would be SHOCKED if X doesn't get in. Committee will fuck this one up.

[hrstrat57]

Funny isn't it if everything else played out exactly as it did despite our other close losses if we had beaten PC like we should have we'd be in and they'd be out.

At the moment it appears the reverse is true.

Don't think that was a huge game?

Beat PC

[Iggy1979]

URI beats GW in the finals and gets the automatic bid.

[adam914]

URI beats GW in the finals and gets the automatic bid.

Wow chaos, I like it!

[RhowdyRam02]

As of this morning, the most accurate bracket picker, Assembly Call, has us as second to last in, playing Seton Hall for the chance to play Oklahoma State

In the last week, we've dropped to third out on Assembly Call. Whoever posted the Major League "win the whole fucking thing" clip was dead on.

[PeterRamTime]

Yeah the big east bubble teams have really cashed in on Xavier and Creightons injuries.
Then after they started beating X and Creighton, they beat each other in just the right way to pretty much lock in teams like PC and Seton Hall.
It's not fair maaaaan.

We really need the teams that are on our level to keep losing though.
It kinda looks like it's us and a handful of others fighting for one of the last two or three possible at-large spots right now WITH a couple bid stealers out there.

We need the Zags or St Mary's to win
Middle Tennessee looks to have a pretty strong resume.
They lack in the big wins, but being on the cut line with them would be similar to being on the line with Wichita State.
If MTSU makes the final and losses they'll be 29-5 with a very good RPI and some good wins.
Some people would call them a lock.

We also can't afford teams like X, Illinois or K-State to get hot. They'll jump us even with a win over Dayton.[/quote

Give me a break even people on this board were saying it was put up or shut up as far as PC was concerned. You had your chance and did not cash in. You were the ranked team at the time against a very inexperienced team and lost fair and square. Now you want to say it's not fair if they get in over you you have to be kidding.

Did I say PC and Seton Hall shouldn't be in?
NO.
All I said is Xavier and Creighton were dealt a raw deal with injury bugs which made it easier for PC, Seton Hall and Marquette to get wins over those teams. Then some big east trickle down economics happened and it actually worked!

And yeah everything was done fair and square, buuuut things were definitely made easier for the big east bubble teams.
Who I may add are all playing very well and look like they deserve to be in.

[TruePoint]

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basket ... oss-to-bc/

I kind of want to like Palm because he's had URI in basically the whole time, but reading some of these blurbs I honestly have no idea what he is talking about sometimes. Many don't even make sense (the URI one is one of those).

[ATPTourFan]

He writes that VCU could help itself if it could beat Rhode Island in the A10 tournament. Yeah, that would be helpful because they'd get the auto-bid because those teams cannot meet until the final.

[Rhodymob05]

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basket ... oss-to-bc/

I kind of want to like Palm because he's had URI in basically the whole time, but reading some of these blurbs I honestly have no idea what he is talking about sometimes. Many don't even make sense (the URI one is one of those).

"nothing but potential bad losses left on its schedule until deep into the conference tournament" We start off deep in the tourney and could play all top 100 teams including two tourney teams, what the H guy.

[PeterRamTime]

More like Jerry Face-Palm.

[RhowdyRam02]

I think that he just tries to amend what he wrote previously instead of starting fresh, and it leads to mistakes like this.

[rjsuperfly66]

BC down 6 to Wake at halftime. BC wins, Wake is probably out.

[ramster]

BC down 6 to Wake at halftime. BC wins, Wake is probably out.

But BC lost their best player to the locker room. They will need to get Bowman back

[rjsuperfly66]

Eamonn Brennan LOL

"Something that hasn't really occurred until Clemson opened the ACC tournament with a win over NC State: Typically, if you're playing on Tuesday of Champ Week, you're nowhere near an at-large NCAA tournament bid. This year, the ACC's crazy depth and a historically forgiving bubble have conspired to put three teams with variously realistic tourney hopes (Clemson, Wake, Georgia Tech) in action already. Weird."

Clemson and GT have no chance of tourney hopes unless Clemson beats Duke and GT beats Virginia, then they may be able to at least start talking, and even then that might be a stretch.

[Rhodymob05]

Looks like Wake just a Woke...a thank you

[reef]

Close to the 13 point spread

[rambone 78]

We need Illinois and K St. to lose their 1st round games....if they do, it's possible [still not likely though] that we could get in with just a win Friday.....

Notice that the updated bracket matrix has us only 3 brackets behind Ill. St.....57-54

I expect that to flip in our favor by tomorrow.

[theblueram]

Don't we need teams above us to lose more than teams below us? Let's hope X and USC bow out early.

[rambone 78]

The teams above us except for X look solid....even if they lose their first games......would love to see X lose to DePaul but I don't see it.....

That's also not counting Ill. St.......they aren't getting in even if it's not us replacing them.

Watch out for Iowa....need them to lose to Michigan.

And if Duke loses to Clemson I will go and personally shit in coach K's hat......haha

Actually if PC loses to Creighton....they are back on the bubble too.

[theblueram]

So the teams above us look solid and we are projected out. Guess it's tear down the nets or bust.

[PeterRamTime]

We definitely don't want K-State to beat Baylor or the second time, they would for sure jump us and someone else.

We need a lot of teams to lose to feel comfy after a run in the A-10 tournament.

[rambone 78]

blueram, not all of them but most of them......

If we get to Sunday by beating Dayton, I give us a 75% chance of getting in even if we lose the final......I would like to think we would be a lock but with past history.....you can't assume that.

And if Gibbs goes bananas like he did against us and we play Davidson Saturday....we will probably have to win it all.

[theblueram]

This year feels so much like 99 when Lamar was finally eligible to play and there were high expectations. Murph goes down and we limped into the tournament. Lamar makes the clutch 3pt for the win. Seems we need some of that magic this year.

[rambone 78]

One of these days we are due to make a buzzer beater to win a game.......no time would be better than either Saturday or Sunday......

I really hope we don't need one on Friday though.

Since we have finally figured out how to close games.....who's going to be the hero?

[Dre3000]

blueram, not all of them but most of them......

If we get to Sunday by beating Dayton, I give us a 75% chance of getting in even if we lose the final......I would like to think we would be a lock but with past history.....you can't assume that.

And if Gibbs goes bananas like he did against us and we play Davidson Saturday....we will probably have to win it all.

If Davidson beats Dayton, they then become a top 100 team. We would then have 2 more top 100 wins even if we lose to them Saturday. Beat them and that's a 3rd top 100 win. Some might argue that would give us a better resume than adding 1 top 50 win beating Dayton.

[rambone 78]

3000, you could make that point yes......and losing to Dayton would mean a 3rd loss to them.....not good

Of course our chances to win it all would be better if we get Davidson.....being largely a 2 man team and playing their 3rd game in 3 days.....we would or should have a big advantage there.

[theblueram]

I think that is why DH was talking about top 130 wins or something. We have wins that are just outside of the top 100. People only look at top 100 wins and make there assumptions based on those numbers. Which is fine, and also why I agree that if we met Davidson on Saturday our resume looks a hell of alot better.

[TruePoint]

Plus we own real estate in Davidson's head now.

[rambone 78]

Let's hope the selection committee gets the memo.......

[rambone 78]

Some really shit-ty basketball being played between Pitt and GT......tied at 35 with 15 to go.......

GT isn't dancing.....they will have 15 losses soon enough......RPI in the 80's......no chance

[steveystuds06]

Screw Davidson I want Dayton. I truly believe we are the best team in this league and I want to beat Dayton in the semis and VCU in the finals.

I know people keep bringing up that awful Fordham night , but since that game this team has looked different. I'll be honest I was telling all my friends and posting on social media that I wanted Dan gone. I overreact over heartbreaking losses, but I really thought this team was done and gave up. I was wrong. It actually woke up this coaching staff and players. We started our tournament February 18th against George Mason. It's been desperation time ever since. Time to show everyone we belong in the NCAA tournament and get the automatic bid. LETS GO!!!

[URI2006_Andy]

I wonder if last year's static has any impact on the committee members. Does the A-10 get a make up call for StB? In 2015, the biggest snub was Temple out of the AAC. In 2016, Tulsa was the biggest surprise selection. Maybe that was a makeup call for the AAC?

Also, another interesting dynamic is the chairperson is a B10 guy. Does he and the B10 really want the ACC getting all the attention and breaking records for number of teams selected? Maybe there is some bias working in our favor and we don't know it.

[Blue Man]

I wonder if last year's static has any impact on the committee members. Does the A-10 get a make up call for StB? In 2015, the biggest snub was Temple out of the AAC. In 2016, Tulsa was the biggest surprise selection. Maybe that was a makeup call for the AAC?

Also, another interesting dynamic is the chairperson is a B10 guy. Does he and the B10 really want the ACC getting all the attention and breaking records for number of teams selected? Maybe there is some bias working in our favor and we don't know it.

I'm all about conspiracy theories...especially ones that benefit us for once!

[PeterRamTime]

Way to go PITT!
Bye bye GT

[TruePoint]

Good to see GT go down. They weren't "in" but they were one of the teams that could come from behind by getting to ACC semis.

[hrstrat57]

Found it somewhat interesting that Cooley thinks he's still on the bubble. Reverse motivation for the team? Strange.

Wish I could agree with him but unfortunately Friars are in.

[SmartyBarrett]

If PC loses Thurs. there are a lot of teams that could potentially pass them over the weekend. They'd be sweating it out for sure.

[rambone 78]

These teams that have or will have 14-15 losses don't belong in the tournament and I don't care who they beat......

Vanderbilt has 14 and will have 15......Iowa and Indiana....13 and 14 losses already......of course you just know that at least 1 and probably 2 will get in.....speaking of the chair being a B10 guy.....yes he has to recuse himself from the discussion involving teams from his conference....but someone else will make sure one of those 2 get in.....

And I agree about PC...if they lose they aren't a lock.

[Rhodymob05]

Big loss for GT, so watching St. Mary's who is a "lock" their two biggest wins are Dayton and Nevada, so one tourney team, only three losses two of which are bad. Now joe goes well their other catagories (RPI bpi etc) are all solid.....so it's the opposite critiquing for us? Where's the consistency?

[reef]

Root against Vandy Iowa and K State for sure also X and PC and USC
Basically all the bubble teams slightly ahead of us and below us

[Seawrightspostgame]

Joe sucks.

[twisted3829]

List of bubble teams to root against

PC
Wake Forest
Xavier
USC
Syracuse
Vanderbilt
Kansas State
Iowa
Illinois
California

[Joe]

Say what you will about Lunardi, but I heard him on ESPN today say something that I liked a lot.

Paraphrasing here, but he said something along the lines of "teams who play almost ten top 50 games - half of them on their home floor - are bound to win some of them. It's tough to compare them to mid-majors who lack that opportunity".

[Seawrightspostgame]

Hes also said that teams should have a # of wins in their conference to meet in order to get in. He still has the A10 with only 2 teams in.

[Rhodymob05]

Say what you will about Lunardi, but I heard him on ESPN today say something that I liked a lot.

Paraphrasing here, but he said something along the lines of "teams who play almost ten top 50 games - half of them on their home floor - are bound to win some of them. It's tough to compare them to mid-majors who lack that opportunity".

Props to joe for that, let's hope the committee had s big heart and a bigger brain.

[reef]

I think Cuse is a lock but they play Miami early so we root for Mismi anyway
Also Duke over Clemson just in case
Oregon state over Cal
V tech over Wake
DePaul over X
Washington over USC
That's it for tomorrow. ????

[RhowdyRam02]

Yeah, but he's not saying what the bracket should be, he's predicting what it will be

[reef]

Lunardi is just 1 guy he just gets all the recognition cuz he is on tv at ESPN and been doing it the longest

Didn't somebody say on this board that there are better guys who predict this than Lunardi , if so we should see what their brackets look like