2016-17 Bracketology

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 7 years ago

Yeah the big east bubble teams have really cashed in on Xavier and Creightons injuries.
Then after they started beating X and Creighton, they beat each other in just the right way to pretty much lock in teams like PC and Seton Hall.
It's not fair maaaaan.

We really need the teams that are on our level to keep losing though.
It kinda looks like it's us and a handful of others fighting for one of the last two or three possible at-large spots right now WITH a couple bid stealers out there.

We need the Zags or St Mary's to win
Middle Tennessee looks to have a pretty strong resume.
They lack in the big wins, but being on the cut line with them would be similar to being on the line with Wichita State.
If MTSU makes the final and losses they'll be 29-5 with a very good RPI and some good wins.
Some people would call them a lock.

We also can't afford teams like X, Illinois or K-State to get hot. They'll jump us even with a win over Dayton.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 7 years ago

Rhodymob05 wrote: We have higher RPI, BPI, and higher ranked in the Kenpom rankings.

Those metrics are only used when they want to justify why a team is IN. If a team has good metrics for these and they are outside the power conferences, these metrics are ignored and it is all about who you beat. The justifications for selection are always moving depending of how they want something portrayed.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

PC has some of the advantages that P5 teams have...they play in a better conference and get to play many more games against good teams.....plus they're hot.....and they've been lucky that they have played teams like X and Marquette that have lost key players to injury....

And even then, it doesn't have to make a lot of sense....it just is what it is.....such is our lot.....

We've had our chances to be a lock in spite of all this....and we blew it.

How many of us even thought that we would still be on the bubble after the Fordham disaster?

So we still have a chance....one more final chance.......

Roz · Unread post by **Roz** » 7 years ago

How the hell are we dropping in the mateix after a win

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 7 years ago

The only game we really have a rooting interest in tonight is the UNC-WIlmington vs College of Charleston in the CAA finals. We are rooting for UNC Wilmington, they could sneak in as an at large (CAA and CUSA are the only 2 leagues with potential bid stealers)

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Agree, twisted.....the AAC is another that could....but very doubtful.....UConn just doesn't have it......neither does Houston.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

UCONN, like Illinois State, was also man handled this weekend, by Cinci.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 7 years ago

the AAC has 2 teams that can stop that and imo makes it a lot harder

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 7 years ago

Roz wrote:How the hell are we dropping in the mateix after a win

We are getting too close for many of the powers that run the NCAA care for.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

We're really not dropping.....if you look at the matrix, you'll see that a lot of the "votes" for Ill. State are a day old or older....before they lost to Wichita........by tomorrow, Ill. State might be behind us.....although K State is creeping up on us........

Some of those who drop Ill. State will vote for us and K State....it will be close between the 3 teams.....

Not that it really matters that much right now.

All of this depends on what we do anyway......we have to get to the finals and hope like crazy.....

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

RF1 wrote:
Roz wrote:How the hell are we dropping in the mateix after a win

We are getting to close for many of the powers that run the NCAA care for.

The real answer is that as we get closer to the end all of the bracket projections will look more and more similar until they almost all converge next Sunday. The smaller, less known brackets that make up the matrix will increasingly check their work against the Lunardis of the world. If/when we go back into the field in Lunardi's bracket, watch the jump we get in a ton of the other smaller brackets in the next day.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 7 years ago

It's also not that simple - this week URI beat St Joes and Davidson, neither of which will make the NIT. Vanderbilt, who was slightly behind URI, beat Florida. Wake, who was also slightly behind URI, beat Louisville and won at Virginia Tech last week. Given all teams rankings before the week, it's not hard to see why those two teams passed URI in many brackets. Should they be there? Different story.

Rammgr · Unread post by **Rammgr** » 7 years ago

Should we sneak in & have to play in Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday does anyone know of good hotels close to Dayton Arena. I'm thinking I might try to get out there. Flights are not that expensive to Dayton. Provided game tickets are available. Not going out there to deal with scalpers.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

I think if we win Friday we pass Illinois State

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

reef wrote:I think if we win Friday we pass Illinois State

Lose and we should be past Illinois State. We wouldn't make it but they sure as shit shouldn't either. For the life of me I cannot fathom how they have an NCAA-caliber resume. By that argument Hurley's Wagner team should've been dancing if Illinois State is a tournament team. It's insanity that they are ahead of ANYONE.

MVC is a 1 bid league. Period.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

Yes for sure. They will get passed by a few more teams as the week progresses

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

URI2006_Andy wrote:
theblueram wrote:In that scenario, if we get to the finals we would have 10 top 100 wins. If we play Dayton and win and lose to VCU in the finals we would have 6 top 100 wins. Which is better?
Shows you how arbitrary that top 100 cutoff line is. I'd rather play the easiest possible schedule in the A10 tourney and go for the win. I'd take any of stB, Dayton and VCU getting upset before we play them, especially Dayton. I'd take that at the expense of losing a chance for a top 50 win.

Agreed. It would be an easier bracket, but our resume would be enhanced greatly. The cutoff line is tight with us having 3 wins against teams just outside of top 100. Having Mason and Davidson advance to the semis would make it very hard to discount our record. People would be saying why is URI on the bubble with great metrics and almost half their wins against top 100 teams.

KMar970 · Unread post by **KMar970** » 7 years ago

Rhode Island Rams
It looks like the Rams are going to be America's bubble team of the year. Currently our "First Team Out," URI is likely to face St. Bonaventure in a tricky Atlantic 10 quarterfinal on Friday. The No. 4 seeded Rams need to win that game and probably also beat No. 1 seed Dayton on Saturday to secure a bid.

thats from lunardi on espn insider

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 7 years ago

Wonderful

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 7 years ago

KMar970 wrote:Rhode Island Rams
It looks like the Rams are going to be America's bubble team of the year. Currently our "First Team Out," URI is likely to face St. Bonaventure in a tricky Atlantic 10 quarterfinal on Friday. The No. 4 seeded Rams need to win that game and probably also beat No. 1 seed Dayton on Saturday to secure a bid.

thats from lunardi on espn insider

Nothing we didn't already know.

Have to beat Dayton to have any chance at an at large.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

What happens if we beat sbu and face Davidson in the semis? We would have 8 top 100 wins in that scenario? If we won we would have 9 top 100 wins.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

KMar970 wrote:Rhode Island Rams
It looks like the Rams are going to be America's bubble team of the year. Currently our "First Team Out," URI is likely to face St. Bonaventure in a tricky Atlantic 10 quarterfinal on Friday. The No. 4 seeded Rams need to win that game and probably also beat No. 1 seed Dayton on Saturday to secure a bid.

thats from lunardi on espn insider

Such bull shit, this team deserves to be in before a Dayton win.

KMar970 · Unread post by **KMar970** » 7 years ago

agreed but lets just win---im sick of the NIT id rather get beat in first round of NCAAs then go back to the NIT

hrstrat57 · Unread post by **hrstrat57** » 7 years ago

Lunardi does not like our Rams.

Who is it that proclaimed him guru?

I missed the news flash.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

I keep saying it's like he wants us to fail, not a fan, I'm gonna start calling him Joe Goodell, it'll be a sweet victory to get in and see his reaction.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Lunardi may not be well liked by our fan base, but in this case he's right.

If somehow we get Davidson on Saturday, then we will have to win the tourney to get in. Probably.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 7 years ago

Survive and advance.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 7 years ago

twisted3829 wrote:The only game we really have a rooting interest in tonight is the UNC-WIlmington vs College of Charleston in the CAA finals. We are rooting for UNC Wilmington, they could sneak in as an at large (CAA and CUSA are the only 2 leagues with potential bid stealers)

Good news: UNC Wilmington won 78-69

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:Lunardi may not be well liked by our fan base, but in this case he's right.

If somehow we get Davidson on Saturday, then we will have to win the tourney to get in. Probably.

What would be the basis for having to win the tournament? I guess it wouldn't be top 100 wins. We would have 9 of them if Davidson got to the semis and we won. Why would we need to win out? How many teams above us have 9 top 100 wins?

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 7 years ago

theblueram wrote:
rambone 78 wrote:Lunardi may not be well liked by our fan base, but in this case he's right.

If somehow we get Davidson on Saturday, then we will have to win the tourney to get in. Probably.
What would be the basis for having to win the tournament? I guess it wouldn't be top 100 wins. We would have 9 of them if Davidson got to the semis and we won. Why would we need to win out? How many teams above us have 9 top 100 wins?

I'm guessing it'd be because 9 Top 100 wins would be nice, but only 2 of them would have come against the Top 50 and 6 of them would come against teams ranked between 90-100.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:
theblueram wrote:
rambone 78 wrote:Lunardi may not be well liked by our fan base, but in this case he's right.

If somehow we get Davidson on Saturday, then we will have to win the tourney to get in. Probably.
What would be the basis for having to win the tournament? I guess it wouldn't be top 100 wins. We would have 9 of them if Davidson got to the semis and we won. Why would we need to win out? How many teams above us have 9 top 100 wins?
I'm guessing it'd be because 9 Top 100 wins would be nice, but only 2 of them would have come against the Top 50 and 6 of them would come against teams ranked between 90-100.

So now it is not about top 100 wins, it's about top 50 wins? Ok, if that is the case then just say so, so we can disregard top 100 wins and just focus on top 50 wins. We have 2 of those. People just making crap up.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

In fact, let's just really tighten the belt and say we should look at top 25 wins, because those are the best teams. URI has 2 wins and pc has 1. Guess we get in over pc?

josephski · Unread post by **josephski** » 7 years ago

hrstrat57 wrote:Lunardi does not like our Rams.

Who is it that proclaimed him guru?

I missed the news flash.

No one, he's the ESPN guy so he's the most well known. Here's the ranking of the guys on bracket matrix including Lunardi.

KillSteenKill · Unread post by **KillSteenKill** » 7 years ago

This is the closest we have been since the 2007 Atlantic 10 championship. Lets enjoy the moment

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

pc has 10 top 100 wins. You think if in my scenario we end up with 9 top 100 wins we don't get in? I would stop watching college basketball if that happened. We would have 2 top 25 wins with pc having 1. They would have 2 bad losses against 1 for us. We would have a better road win pct. And we would have a better last 12 record.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

theblueram wrote:In fact, let's just really tighten the belt and say we should look at top 25 wins, because those are the best teams. URI has 2 wins and pc has 1. Guess we get in over pc?

That is exactly what Dan and Mike said on the Coaches Show tonight. We have Wins against Cincinnati and VCU - both Top 25 RPI Teams

And we are the only A10 Team to have a Top 25 win OOC vs Cincinnati

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

theblueram wrote:pc has 10 top 100 wins. You think if in my scenario we end up with 9 top 100 wins we don't get in? I would stop watching college basketball if that happened. We would have 2 top 25 wins with pc having 1. They would have 2 bad losses against 1 for us. We would have a better road win pct. And we would have a better last 12 record.

Preach

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 7 years ago

KenPom
URI 51
PC 53
SH 54

RPI
URI 42
SH 43
PC 52

BPI
URI 39
PC 55
SH 56

Sagarin
SH 50
URI 52
PC 55

Talking points for the committee:

1. Emphasize the importance of the eye test over using the above objective metrics.

2. SH's and PC's 4 victories over Xavier and Creighton when those teams weren't at full strength doesn't matter because Creighton and X are still great teams as demonstrated by their combined 9-15 record since the injuries.

3. PC would've went 17-1, maybe 16-2, if they were in the A-10 this year as shown by their dominance over UMass beating them at home by 6. Plus, besides St. John's, DePaul and Boston College, PC never slips up to teams worse than them.

4. URI would've went 3-15 if they were in the BE this year because they lost by 3 at PC and PC wasn't even trying that game.

5. URI's win over Cincy is nice but Cincy no longer plays in the BE so hard to tell what that's worth.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

I'm kind of feeling just running the table and removing all doubt. Might be the only safe way, and I think we are the best team in the conference. I know that Dayton beat us twice and I know that we have weaknesses, but I wouldn't say that if I didn't really believe it. And if we win this tournament, then the fun starts - we will finish with an RPI around 23 and will have a handful of good wins against tournament teams, including a bunch of neutral courts. So we could disrupt some of the current thinking about seeds and all that. Just go get it, there's no reason we can't and it'd be nice to take the committee out of it.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

I still think if we beat Bona then we are 50-50 to make it if loss in semi to Dayton
Depends what happens around the country

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 7 years ago

Anybody seeing Saint Mary's destroy BYU?
No bid stealer out of the WCC.

urirx · Unread post by **urirx** » 7 years ago

the WCC is helping us bigly

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

Wow what a massive beat down by SMC to a BYU team that won @ Gonzaga

College hoops are crazy sometimes

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:
theblueram wrote:
rambone 78 wrote:Lunardi may not be well liked by our fan base, but in this case he's right.

If somehow we get Davidson on Saturday, then we will have to win the tourney to get in. Probably.
What would be the basis for having to win the tournament? I guess it wouldn't be top 100 wins. We would have 9 of them if Davidson got to the semis and we won. Why would we need to win out? How many teams above us have 9 top 100 wins?
I'm guessing it'd be because 9 Top 100 wins would be nice, but only 2 of them would have come against the Top 50 and 6 of them would come against teams ranked between 90-100.

Fair enough, but as of now it looks like the last at large is going to come down to us and Illinois State with Kansas State next. Our top 100 resume is much better than Illinois State's

woodennickel1 · Unread post by **woodennickel1** » 7 years ago

[quote="PeterRamTime"]Yeah the big east bubble teams have really cashed in on Xavier and Creightons injuries.
Then after they started beating X and Creighton, they beat each other in just the right way to pretty much lock in teams like PC and Seton Hall.
It's not fair maaaaan.

We really need the teams that are on our level to keep losing though.
It kinda looks like it's us and a handful of others fighting for one of the last two or three possible at-large spots right now WITH a couple bid stealers out there.

We need the Zags or St Mary's to win
Middle Tennessee looks to have a pretty strong resume.
They lack in the big wins, but being on the cut line with them would be similar to being on the line with Wichita State.
If MTSU makes the final and losses they'll be 29-5 with a very good RPI and some good wins.
Some people would call them a lock.

We also can't afford teams like X, Illinois or K-State to get hot. They'll jump us even with a win over Dayton.[/quote

Give me a break even people on this board were saying it was put up or shut up as far as PC was concerned. You had your chance and did not cash in. You were the ranked team at the time against a very inexperienced team and lost fair and square. Now you want to say it's not fair if they get in over you you have to be kidding.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

I gotta be honest I don't understand the thought that PC shouldn't be in regardless - nevermind above us.

They have 6 top 50 wins, they've played good basketball down the stretch, and they've done what they needed to. We should be rooting for them to take the damn big east title because I don't want to be on the cut line compared to a team with a higher SOS, 3x the top 50 wins, that also beat us head to head.

Marquette and Seton Hall also have resumes that scare me if we're compared to them on the cut line. We had our opportunities and didn't take advantage of them, that's our own fault - so I just don't understand being pissed that other teams did what they needed to do. That's not a bias. If we hit one more shot or make one more stop in the Dayton game at home, we aren't even in this situation.

Fortunately, we have every chance and the ability to win the next 3 - and honestly no reason not to. With the emotion and momentum we play with, we're rolling and I like our chances.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

PC deserves to be in, as much as I hate to say it, but they also did benefit (along with Marquette) from Xavier folding up and Creighton falling off. It's fair to point out, but ultimately it doesn't make any difference.

kal-65 · Unread post by **kal-65** » 7 years ago

lunardi maybe on the espn layoff list;we wouldn't see his slanted tournament rankings anymore

woodennickel1 · Unread post by **woodennickel1** » 7 years ago

TruePoint wrote:PC deserves to be in, as much as I hate to say it, but they also did benefit (along with Marquette) from Xavier folding up and Creighton falling off. It's fair to point out, but ultimately it doesn't make any difference.

Xavier I can agree with they have not beaten anyone good in a month . Creighton is still a good team and beating them there in front of 17000 is no easy chore that is a very good win. I agree URI should be ahead of Xavier right now unless they regroup and beat Butler at least.

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 7 years ago

Blue Man wrote:I gotta be honest I don't understand the thought that PC shouldn't be in regardless - nevermind above us.

They have 6 top 50 wins, they've played good basketball down the stretch, and they've done what they needed to. We should be rooting for them to take the damn big east title because I don't want to be on the cut line compared to a team with a higher SOS, 3x the top 50 wins, that also beat us head to head.

Marquette and Seton Hall also have resumes that scare me if we're compared to them on the cut line. We had our opportunities and didn't take advantage of them, that's our own fault - so I just don't understand being pissed that other teams did what they needed to do. That's not a bias. If we hit one more shot or make one more stop in the Dayton game at home, we aren't even in this situation.

Fortunately, we have every chance and the ability to win the next 3 - and honestly no reason not to. With the emotion and momentum we play with, we're rolling and I like our chances.

I think PC should be in over us right now but I don't think it's as clear cut as everyone thinks. First off, head to head doesn't carry much weight when you win at home. If so, maybe we should be in over VCU or Ohio state in over PC. Second two of PC's top 50 wins are not any better than us beating Davidson twice. Would it make a difference if we had 4 top 50 wins because we beat Vermont at home and Xavier at home when they didn't have Bluiett or Sumner instead of Davidson twice?

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