2016-17 Bracketology

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:
theblueram wrote:
rjsuperfly66 wrote:
Perhaps I misspoke... when I referenced navigate, it was in regards to Tournament position. When A10 play started, URI was still in good shape for a tournament birth. But after no notable wins and 3 tough losses (LaSalle, Richmond, Fordham), on Feb 15th they were all but left for dead with an 8-5 conference record. Credit them for turning it around the last portion of the season, but point was that in a more challenging conference, 5 losses would have probably been 8, and the remaining schedule probably would have included 3-4 tough games instead of 1.

You can't just take the good out of it that "If we played in that conference we would have won 1-2 more Top games."

La Salle is RPI 128 and Richmond is 85. Not sure where you are getting your bad/tough losses numbers from.
Well usually anything over 100 is a bad loss, and at the time that was what those two were considered. Richmond hasn't turned out to be as bad of a loss as originally anticipated, but even so you're talking about a program that probably is headed to the CBI if anything at all. Personally, I'd consider Richmond a tough loss, although not a bad loss.

Does not matter what a team was ranked when you played them, only what they are ranked when the gremlins sit in the room and select teams for the NCAAT.

giovanni · Unread post by **giovanni** » 7 years ago

theblueram wrote:We should have a much clearer picture of where we stand before we even play on Friday. All the teams in the Last 4 Byes and Last 4 Ins will have played in their tournament. Will be interesting to see if any are still standing by the time we play.

Very true. But after 4 months of basketball, should anything be decided in a half of week conference tournament? Pull of an upset overf a team that could give a rat's ass is quality?

eli#10 · Unread post by **eli#10** » 7 years ago

We all know the RPI has it's flaws but take a look at Syracuse. They have a current RPI of 80 and did not play a true road game in their OOC schedule.
Does that look like a tournament team? If the Committee really thinks Syracuse is on the bubble with several other teams they need to send a message to all teams that they need to schedule true road games in the OOC. The games cannot be against "cupcakes" either.

Roz · Unread post by **Roz** » 7 years ago

I cant stand these"power teams" who dont play a dam away game ooc and then win a few home games in conference and get into the tourney.

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 7 years ago

I hope Illinois State still gets in, even though that may cost us.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

Why? That's the worst thing I've ever heard. You want some random team somewhere that is unquestionably not as good as the team you root for to get in over the team that you root for? Help me understand.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

eli#10 wrote:We all know the RPI has it's flaws but take a look at Syracuse. They have a current RPI of 80 and did not play a true road game in their OOC schedule.
Does that look like a tournament team? If the Committee really thinks Syracuse is on the bubble with several other teams they need to send a message to all teams that they need to schedule true road games in the OOC. The games cannot be against "cupcakes" either.

I think at the half of the Missouri Valley game Seth Davis and the other analyst couldn't believe that Palm had Syracuse out. He defended it by saying they only have two road wins all year and an at large has never gotten in with that few

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 7 years ago

skwalk47 wrote:I hope Illinois State still gets in, even though that may cost us.

I'm going to pretend you didn't just say that....

Is this the stupidest post in the history of this board? Saying you hope IllInois St gets in even if it means it costs us getting in?

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

skwalk47 wrote:I hope Illinois State still gets in, even though that may cost us.

I did not get my sight back to see this bullshit.

I hope a dog shits in your path and you step in it.

Then I hope we make the NCAA tournament.

Then I hope that dog comes back and shits on your face.

And independent of all of that Illinois state barely has an NIT resume. Your post and thought are dumb.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

That really is a bizarre post for a supposed Rhody fan.

860_rhody · Unread post by **860_rhody** » 7 years ago

skwalk47 wrote:I hope Illinois State still gets in, even though that may cost us.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Looking at the bracket matrix......this was before Illinois St. lost today, but they had them up to 87 out of 109...and us down to 41......because of what exactly?

That should change when they update it tomorrow, but even so, it makes you scratch your head.....

HASwatTeam · Unread post by **HASwatTeam** » 7 years ago

Lunardi said in a statement a few hours ago that he has Illinois St as a last team in, however that is because no other games have been played and that between now and Sunday it its "likely" that they are passed. I see ZERO chance they would be in before us.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:Looking at the bracket matrix......this was before Illinois St. lost today, but they had them up to 87 out of 109...and us down to 41......because of what exactly?

That should change when they update it tomorrow, but even so, it makes you scratch your head.....

They must not be counting older brackets anymore, because they were up to 119 brackets at one point. We must have been on a good amount of older brackets plus some brackets must have swapped us for Vanderbilt when they beat Florida. I imagine Illinois State is going to drop considerably after today

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 7 years ago

skwalk47 wrote:I hope Illinois State still gets in, even though that may cost us.

....I do not usually confront posters on here; but you really owe it to us to explain what it is that causes you to say that.....related to someone involved in their program is the only thing I can think of.....so, skywalk, spill it....

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

HASwatTeam wrote:Lunardi said in a statement a few hours ago that he has Illinois St as a last team in, however that is because no other games have been played and that between now and Sunday it its "likely" that they are passed. I see ZERO chance they would be in before us.

It's weird, though. He doesn't even have them as one of the last four byes (Seton Hall, Syracuse, Providence and Marquette), so that means at least 9 teams would have to jump them for them not to be on his final bracket. I can't believe that the committee would feel the same way.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 7 years ago

I think skywalk didn't mean to say it like that...

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 7 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote:I think skywalk didn't mean to say it like that...

.....OK fine.....let's hear from him/her to explain.....all ears and fingers here....

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

It's going to be a long week.......but at least nothing's going to happen for a couple of days now, when it comes to games that matter anyway.....

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

Illinois State - 1-2 vs top 50. Won and lost to #37 Wichita State.

1-2 vs 51-100. Beat #83 New Mexico. Lost to 79 TCU and 96 San Francisco.

SOS 139. Worst loss @ 229 Murray State.

I don't even need to put a comparison up there for anyone to say that Illinois State deserves to be in over any bubble team.

HASwatTeam · Unread post by **HASwatTeam** » 7 years ago

TruePoint wrote:
HASwatTeam wrote:Lunardi said in a statement a few hours ago that he has Illinois St as a last team in, however that is because no other games have been played and that between now and Sunday it its "likely" that they are passed. I see ZERO chance they would be in before us.
It's weird, though. He doesn't even have them as one of the last four byes (Seton Hall, Syracuse, Providence and Marquette), so that means at least 9 teams would have to jump them for them not to be on his final bracket. I can't believe that the committee would feel the same way.

Exactly, there is no way they could. Their only big win is at home vs Wichita St who then beat them by 40 and 20. Truly believe there is a better chance Jimmy Baron bangs a 3 next game for URI than Ill St getting in before us.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

There's a lot not making sense here between all bubble teams, some stats are being favored differently than others and a lot of contradictory here and lacy of consistency. Very confusing.

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 7 years ago

Jeez i didn't expect that much hate. I just think they are more deserving right now. That changes if we win 2 games in Pittsburgh. I really hope both teams make it. The real philosophical battle is between say Illinois St and Syracuse. Would love to see more quality mid majors make it over power conference schools who would never schedule those teams on the road in their OOC.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

skwalk47 wrote:Jeez i didn't expect that much hate. I just think they are more deserving right now. That changes if we win 2 games in Pittsburgh. I really hope both teams make it. The real philosophical battle is between say Illinois St and Syracuse. Would love to see more quality mid majors make it over power conference schools who would never schedule those teams on the road in their OOC.

You posted as a supposed URI fan that you wanted another team...nevermind how undeserving that team is...that you wanted them to be in the tournament over URI. Ignoring the jumbled logic that leads one to that conclusion as a fan. Just facts of an URI/Ill St:

RPI is all Illinois State has. 26 vs 42.

SOS: 139 vs 61

Top 100 Wins - #37 Wichita State, #83 New Mexico

Top 100 Wins - #14 Cincinnati, #23 VCU, #60 Belmont, #91 St Bona

Nevermind how are they in over us...how is that even close?

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

I think X may have to win 2 games to get in beat DePaul and Butler

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 7 years ago

reef wrote:I think X may have to win 2 games to get in beat DePaul and Butler

they certainly ran our 2008 'Play Yourself Out of It' game plan to perfection. Thing is they probably still get in as they are insiders and have the BE name behind them

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 7 years ago

Blue Man wrote:
skwalk47 wrote:Jeez i didn't expect that much hate. I just think they are more deserving right now. That changes if we win 2 games in Pittsburgh. I really hope both teams make it. The real philosophical battle is between say Illinois St and Syracuse. Would love to see more quality mid majors make it over power conference schools who would never schedule those teams on the road in their OOC.
You posted as a supposed URI fan that you wanted another team...nevermind how undeserving that team is...that you wanted them to be in the tournament over URI. Ignoring the jumbled logic that leads one to that conclusion as a fan. Just facts of an URI/Ill St:

RPI is all Illinois State has. 26 vs 42.

SOS: 139 vs 61

Top 100 Wins - #37 Wichita State, #83 New Mexico

Top 100 Wins - #14 Cincinnati, #23 VCU, #60 Belmont, #91 St Bona

Nevermind how are they in over us...how is that even close?

Enough with this supposed fan bullshit. I am a fan, I just happen to think there are a lot of problems with the NCAA selection process (problems we usually get screwed by) that are going to screw Illinois State. I didnt really mean to argue them vs URI but we kinda blew our chances earlier this year. They are better rated than us in both kenpom and RPI. The real issue at hand is whether a few good wins should put a 17-14 Vandy or 18-12 Wake in over a 27-6 Illinois State that has a better RPI than both. After all, isn't RPI the NCAA's official metric? I think it was Gary Parish I heard last week that the tie should go to the runner and the runner basically being the small schools since the deck is stacked against them ahead of time.

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 7 years ago

Skwalk, you said you'd like to see Illinois St in the tournament even if it costs us a spot.

You really have no room to argue.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

OK you're a fan.

Ignoring the logic of being a fan of a team and then rooting against them for no actual reason than a feeling - how can you honestly say that a team with 1 top 50 win, and 2 total top 100 wins (37 and 82) with an average win of #179 and loss of #111, and an SOS of #140 - is more deserving of a bid than a team with 2 top 25 wins, 4 total top 100 wins (14, 22, 64, 92) with an average win of #158 and loss of #71, and an SOS of #65. Especially when that Illinois state team has a worse loss than URI on its resume.

On top of that their best win outside of the top 100 is #139. URI has 7 additional wins ahead of that number - 4 of those could turn into top 100's by the time Selection Sunday rolls around.

The lack of understanding of college basketball and the NCAA tournament here is ASTOUNDING.

Justns11 · Unread post by **Justns11** » 7 years ago

Lunardi switched us and Illinois State after their bad loss to Wichita state. We're back on the outside looking in according to him.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

urirx · Unread post by **urirx** » 7 years ago

we can watch all the brackets but we absolutely need one more win and can't lose to a school not named Dayton or VCU.
The big east needs X or Marquette to bomb out in the opening round they play in.
have some teams like cuse, iowa- 8 or 9th teams in those big conferences lose early
There aren't a ton of bid stealers really available from multibid leagues (American and WCC really being the only 2 easily identified as leagues with at large bids, but could easily have a third team steal a bid) but we should remain Cinni, smu, gonzaga and st. Mary's fans this week.

If we win the A10, chances are we get called a bid stealer.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

Justns11 wrote:Lunardi switched us and Illinois State after their bad loss to Wichita state. We're back on the outside looking in according to him.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Amazing.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

[quote="urirx"]we can watch all the brackets but we absolutely need one more win and can't lose to a school not named Dayton or VCU.
The big east needs X or Marquette to bomb out in the opening round they play in.
have some teams like cuse, iowa- 8 or 9th teams in those big conferences lose early
There aren't a ton of bid stealers really available from multibid leagues (American and WCC really being the only 2 easily identified as leagues with at large bids, but could easily have a third team steal a bid) but we should remain Cinni, smu, gonzaga and st. Mary's fans this week.

If we win the A10, chances are we get called a bid stealer.[/quote]

I'm ok with that

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 7 years ago

Justns11 wrote:Lunardi switched us and Illinois State after their bad loss to Wichita state. We're back on the outside looking in according to him.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Seriously what am I missing here? How is Illinois State even in the field?

They have played the now #40 ranked team 3 times. Won by 14 at home, lost by 41 - not a typo, forty-one - on the road, and by 20 in a must win tournament game. A total point differential of -47 in 3 games. They have played 1 NCAA auto-bid caliber team 3 times, and been run out of the gym by them on the road and in a neutral site.

URI played 8 NCAA caliber teams 9 times. Won 5 of those. Their losses were by 10 on a neutral floor, 3 on the road, 5 on the road, 3 on the road, 1 at home.

The combined RPI of URI's top 2 wins is better than Illinois State's top win.

Illinois State top 7 wins - #40, #86, #110, @#139, #139, #139N, #153

URI Top 7 wins - #14, #22, #64, #94, #108, @#109, #109

HOW!?!?!?!!?

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

I think the committee isn't going to use the RPI as the be all and end all here.......and in this case especially.......

I agree with BM, there's no way they take Illinois St. over us if it comes down to that.....

But there's a long way to go this week......they are done, but we've got a lot of work to do.....it's really all about Saturday, if we get there and beat Dayton, we're most likely in and there's no longer any debate about who's getting in between us and Ill. State.......

We might have to worry about someone like K State if they win a couple games in their tourney.....

Even if Vandy and Xavier lose early.....they are likely in....everything is so close.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Rhodymob5....that was Illinois they dropped down below us....Ill. State was above the "last 4 byes" before their loss...and they were dropped to the last team in replacing Illinois......

Ill. State should be below us though, we should be the last team in......but like I just said, it's way too early to worry about.

That's just Lunardi agreeing with the bracket matrix......or out of his ass......whichever.

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 7 years ago

I feel comfortable knowing as of now, Lunardi has Ill St as the last team in and us as first team out.

They can't do anything to improve their chances, while we have multiple opportunities to enhance our resume.

URI96 · Unread post by **URI96** » 7 years ago

Illinois State has two top 100 wins and one top 50 (Wichita) a team that also beat them by an average of 30 points in their other two meetimgs. They belong nowhere near this tournament.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

They played the RPI game like we've done in the past.....and lost.....it won't work for them either.

The committee has said that starting next season, the RPI will be de-emphasized......and it's already being done anyway.

Only have to look at the RPI's of teams like Syracuse...80....and they're getting in......

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 7 years ago

They really don't belong near the field.
They should be in NEXT four out territory.
They don't have win anywhere near as good as teams like URI K-State Gtech and company have.
Put them next to Cal or something.

Lunardi did say he expects them not to make the tournament.

But I don't understand why he would put the Redbirds in with their resume.
Maybe cause they lost only 6 times?
To give the nod to a strong mid major?

Either way, if you're a mid major, you have to play and beat good teams just like the major conference teams do to get In the field.
They haven't done so.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

At least SOME analyst get it!

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 7 years ago

Somebody else said this to (sorry forget who at this point), but I think its a situation of Illinois State is in if the season ended today type thing. But teams will pass them easily throughout the week based on the other conference tournaments.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Hey, we have plenty of motivation this week. Leaving us out right now might help, even if just a little.

They know what they have to do. There won't be any more dubious effort games like Fordham from now on.....

My only concern is we have to shoot our 3's better than we have lately.

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 7 years ago

For sure. They have to shoot at least 35% from three to beat the Bonnies and Dayton
if they play good games. and if they get to the dance they have to shoot better to win.

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 7 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:They played the RPI game like we've done in the past.....and lost.....it won't work for them either.

The committee has said that starting next season, the RPI will be de-emphasized......and it's already being done anyway.

Only have to look at the RPI's of teams like Syracuse...80....and they're getting in......

Agree. It's like they're saying that if the system isn't working for the teams we want in, let's just change the system.
This is one reason I have no faith in a fair shake from the committee.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

True. We'll get in if it's between us and Ill. State.....but if it's between us and a B10 team, or an ACC team, or another P5 conference.....we're fucked.

I really don't think the Hurley name will carry any weight with this committee.....

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

I don't think it is as black and white as we are making it seem (against this type of team we are in, against that type of team we are out, they will jump a team over another one on account of how well a fan base travels). I think it is much more of a subtle bias than that, where the factors they emphasize will change slightly depending on who they're looking at when there are two teams basically tied, but they won't go off the reservation to keep a team out or get a team in.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

TP, whatever they do, they will twist things to try and justify whatever decision they make.

Although last year they couldn't even do that when it came to letting Tulsa in the tournament.

That was a "who you know" deal if there ever was one.

ElmCityRhody · Unread post by **ElmCityRhody** » 7 years ago

how is PC a lock ?

they have 2 very good wins and the balance of wins is against 2 games over 500 teams

i dont see it

our rpi is better than them

if they lose to creighton they are a lock ??

if that is true.. we are all in trouble..

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

ElmCityRhody wrote:how is PC a lock ?

they have 2 very good wins and the balance of wins is against 2 games over 500 teams

i dont see it

our rpi is better than them

if they lose to creighton they are a lock ??

if that is true.. we are all in trouble..

We have higher RPI, BPI, and higher ranked in the Kenpow rankings.

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