NCAA or NIT 2016 Possibilities and 2016-2017 Expectations

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

I thought a separate thread for this topic would make sense. predictions foe end of season and throwing in the towel to wait until next year come up in individual game threads. This will keep all the comments together and help keep individual game threads to the game, coaches and players themselves. Just a thought.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 8 years ago

NCAA At-Large Chances 5%
NCAA Auto Bid Chances 10%
NIT At-Large Chances 45%
NIT Auto Bid Chances 5%
No Postseason Chances 35%

***Assumes URI would not lower itself again and accept a bid to one of the other lesser postseason tournaments

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

This year is an aberration, we were supposed to be good, by many accounts, very good. We're not. I honestly think it would be in the guys best interest if the postseason was not even an idea, and they just get more comfortable as a team, play without the stress of trying to maintain any expectations and build toward next year.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

I think RF1 just summed up what I think our chances are.

Of course, after tomorrow night, things could change.

But only slightly.

If we win, I'm not going to say we're going to Dance. Not close.

Makes the NIT a little more likely. That's all, really.

We are going to have to win at least a couple of those "key games" later in the season, to even entertain thoughts of an NIT bid.

Otherwise, no postseason. 18-19 wins, will not do it. Going to take at least 20 after NY, to do it.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Throwing in the towel is silly. This team, like most college teams, has shown flashes of great and not-so-great. The game at St. Joe's could've easily been a win if the freshman had shot the ball decent at all...but, they're going to have games like that. Had they won, however, there wouldn't be anywhere near the doom and gloom/wait til next year that there is now.

At-large still possible with the right run of wins. And if not, still talented enough to give it a worthwhile go in the A10 tourney.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Keatgsr07 wrote:This year is an aberration, we were supposed to be good, by many accounts, very good. We're not. I honestly think it would be in the guys best interest if the postseason was not even an idea, and they just get more comfortable as a team, play without the stress of trying to maintain any expectations and build toward next year.

Wow...talk about optimism....I'm sure that would be a great sell/motivator to the team.
Absurd statements...truly absurd. College kids have such a very short window, and you're telling them you wish they'd pack it in for the year...3 games into conf play... wow.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

I don't think he's advocating "packing it in". That would be absurd.

Just that the "what if's" and expectations games we play don't really amount to a hill of beans in the long run.

I understand you want to wait until the games play out before passing judgement.

That's fine, but I among many others don't see us being good enough. Simple as that.

We have plenty of recent history to back it up. That includes this year's team.

Joe · Unread post by **Joe** » 8 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:Throwing in the towel is silly. This team, like most college teams, has shown flashes of great and not-so-great. The game at St. Joe's could've easily been a win if the freshman had shot the ball decent at all...but, they're going to have games like that. Had they won, however, there wouldn't be anywhere near the doom and gloom/wait til next year that there is now.

At-large still possible with the right run of wins. And if not, still talented enough to give it a worthwhile go in the A10 tourney.

+1

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

Based on the early results so far, this team has every bit of a puncher's chance in Brooklyn. Would obviously help to get the bye which will take a good effort the rest of the way.

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:
Keatgsr07 wrote:This year is an aberration, we were supposed to be good, by many accounts, very good. We're not. I honestly think it would be in the guys best interest if the postseason was not even an idea, and they just get more comfortable as a team, play without the stress of trying to maintain any expectations and build toward next year.

Wow...talk about optimism....I'm sure that would be a great sell/motivator to the team.
Absurd statements...truly absurd. College kids have such a very short window, and you're telling them you wish they'd pack it in for the year...3 games into conf play... wow.

I'm not claiming anyone "packs it in" but I do believe the guys would play a better brand of basketball if they could mentally let go of the idea of "we were supposed to be..." Me, as a fan, I'd prefer to sit down and look for positive things to take into next season for the remainder of the year. The window has closed sitting on pins each game praying for wins. Speaking for myself.

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 8 years ago

Keatgsr07 wrote:I'm not claiming anyone "packs it in" but I do believe the guys would play a better brand of basketball if they could mentally let go of the idea of "we were supposed to be..."

I agree with this, but do you have anything approaching proof that the team actually thinks "we were supposed to be?"

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

sf2010 wrote:
Keatgsr07 wrote:I'm not claiming anyone "packs it in" but I do believe the guys would play a better brand of basketball if they could mentally let go of the idea of "we were supposed to be..."
I agree with this, but do you have anything approaching proof that the team actually thinks "we were supposed to be?"

silly question, of course not

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

Yeah, I definitely noticed a "sea change" on this board after the St. Joes game.

Some people who are always on the "sunny side up", well even their posts have started to take on an air of resignation. Of fatalism, even.

It's like, oh well we lost another close game to a good team on the road. Nothing new here.

Good effort, but not enough. Again.

As Rod has said many times, wake us when things change.

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:
Keatgsr07 wrote:This year is an aberration, we were supposed to be good, by many accounts, very good. We're not. I honestly think it would be in the guys best interest if the postseason was not even an idea, and they just get more comfortable as a team, play without the stress of trying to maintain any expectations and build toward next year.

Wow...talk about optimism....I'm sure that would be a great sell/motivator to the team.
Absurd statements...truly absurd. College kids have such a very short window, and you're telling them you wish they'd pack it in for the year...3 games into conf play... wow.

Our best win was the rout of Richmond, RPI 76. Good win, no doubt. Second best win was Houston at home (128). The schedule is about to get really difficult and I laugh at the idea that I'm supposed to be an optimist. Based on what? I'm trying to be realistic.

40% of our remaining games are against an RPI below 60.

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 8 years ago

Keatgsr07 wrote:
sf2010 wrote:
Keatgsr07 wrote:I'm not claiming anyone "packs it in" but I do believe the guys would play a better brand of basketball if they could mentally let go of the idea of "we were supposed to be..."
I agree with this, but do you have anything approaching proof that the team actually thinks "we were supposed to be?"
silly question, of course not

Then I'm not sure why you would even mention this line of thinking if you didn't believe that the team was thinking about what could have been. Mine was a silly question responding to a sillier statement, I guess.

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

@sf2010

I'm not claiming anyone "packs it in" but I do believe if the guys are hanging onto the idea that they were supposed to be an elite A10 team, they should let it go, it might loosen them up.

how's that?

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 8 years ago

A little better. I guess I have a little more confidence in the coaching staff and the players themselves to not be hung up on preseason expectations, so I don't even entertain the idea that there could be players thinking that way as an option.

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

You're probably right.

I'm still heartbroken by this team, my tone reflects that. I was excited for this thing since May of last year, I couldn't wait for November. I feel like I imagine Red Sox fans felt after the 2003 ALCS Aaron Boone HR. Hopefully that adds context to the lack of "optimism."

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 8 years ago

RF1 wrote:NCAA At-Large Chances 5%
NCAA Auto Bid Chances 10%
NIT At-Large Chances 45%
NIT Auto Bid Chances 5%
No Postseason Chances 35%

***Assumes URI would not lower itself again and accept a bid to one of the other lesser postseason tournaments

I mostly agree with your numbers here, but I think the chances might be a smidge low for all of these - You only give URI a 1-in-10 chance of winning the A-10 tournament? I might bump that up to 20 percent. Likewise, although it's now tougher than in past years to get into the NIT, it's hard to believe URI isn't in the Top 96 teams by year's end. You're saying their chances are 65 percent for NIT or better, if I'm reading correctly, whereas I think it's probably 75 percent. Small quibbles though, fundamentally agree with you.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

The 2nd part of the title of this thread, 2016-17 expectations, hasn't been touched on much yet.

Obviously a lot can change. The newcomers could be anything, although it looks good at this point.

However I think I can speak for just about everybody, in that it's truly "NCAA's or Bust".

If things were disappointing this year, imagine if it happens again.

I think we finally get over the hump, and make the Dance.

Beyond that, seedings or how far we advance, is simply too much up in the air.

Just that we will make it. You have to start somewhere.

steveystuds06 · Unread post by **steveystuds06** » 8 years ago

Until this program shows us they can beat the top teams on the road every now and then we aren't going anywhere. I don't see this team getting a bid without winning it all in Brooklyn. We are way too young and inconsistent. We will have games like Richmond where our guys are hitting everything and others where we can't hit anything. That's the problem when a lot of our key guys are freshman and sophomores. Kuran is a junior but in all reality is playing his first real year at this level, Earl was a juco, Four is the only guy we have that has actually played 3 full years at this level. Speaking with Hurley at the coaches show he expects our guys to have ups and downs this season but that we should be extremely hard to beat in Brooklyn. He said guys like Terrell and Garrett will be much more consistent as Juniors and Seniors. We can win in Brooklyn!!

Next year we have our main piece back with another great transfer who actually played some minutes in Indiana especially as a freshman. All our young guys will be a year older and improved. The only thing I'm worried about is we will have to rely on some of our freshman bigs to produce, but it sounds like Hurley is high on all of them. We also have the best big man in the conference to help shadow the guys coming in. I don't see EC and Hass letting this team not make the NCAA next year as long as we are healthy.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

Mike G. you are adding those percentages together, which doesn't seem right.

I think our chances right now of making the NIT are 50%.

The NCAA's I would give 10%, tops. But, each percentage is a separate entity.

So, it's really 50% chance of making any postseason. I doubt we will accept an invite to the CIT or CBI. Ugh.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 8 years ago

I feel like keatgsr07 is a URI Ram that was swayed to the dark side.

Something about that black ram avatar and negative outlook.

It could have been that the mighty Friar lured him to the dark side with the promise of NCAA tourney bids. Don't blame him.

I will continue to wait for Luke Skywalker to awaken and go learn some jedi tricks from Tom Penders or some old jedi.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 8 years ago

Wait on a real note. Just occurred to me.

Next year I know the November tournament is at Mohegan with Duke in attendance, which is potentially a very exciting event.

AFTER THAT, I would like for us to get in a tournament that the UMASS of world are always in. A tournament with a bunch of 30-60RPI type teams. So we can win. Teams that win those under the radar tournaments always get a bump. We don't need to get ran out of the building by a top 5 team every year.

I don't care if it is a recruiting tool either. Skip a year with a top 5 and if a recruit asks? point to the other years where we did play the top 5 team.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Keatgsr07 wrote:@sf2010

I'm not claiming anyone "packs it in" but I do believe if the guys are hanging onto the idea that they were supposed to be an elite A10 team, they should let it go, it might loosen them up.

how's that?

Plain silly...how can you expect an athlete that is used to winning to be 'ok' with the idea that "we should let go of the idea that we're supposed to be an elite A10 team" - 3 games into conference play. And that is supposed to 'loosen them up'??? For what???

Just crazy...that may be how the fan psyche works, but I hope this school never recruits a coach or player that thinks that way. Good grief....

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:
Keatgsr07 wrote:@sf2010

I'm not claiming anyone "packs it in" but I do believe if the guys are hanging onto the idea that they were supposed to be an elite A10 team, they should let it go, it might loosen them up.

how's that?
Plain silly...how can you expect an athlete that is used to winning to be 'ok' with the idea that "we should let go of the idea that we're supposed to be an elite A10 team" - 3 games into conference play. And that is supposed to 'loosen them up'??? For what???

Just crazy...that may be how the fan psyche works, but I hope this school never recruits a coach or player that thinks that way. Good grief....

You've never heard that athletes press? They grip the bat a little too much, they simply try to make something happen rather then let the game come to them? You keep referencing how many games they are into the A10 schedule? Why do you keep saying that, is that some implication that they haven't kicked it into gear yet?

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 8 years ago

I remain concerned that we will get tripped against two lower tier A-10 teams, maybe one at home for a bad loss and really bad loss that places us in the NIT, a win against St. Joes would have gotten me charged up again, but no....just my view of where this edition is at....

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

Seawrightspostgame wrote:I feel like keatgsr07 is a URI Ram that was swayed to the dark side.

Something about that black ram avatar and negative outlook.

It could have been that the mighty Friar lured him to the dark side with the promise of NCAA tourney bids. Don't blame him.

I will continue to wait for Luke Skywalker to awaken and go learn some jedi tricks from Tom Penders or some old jedi.

Give me something positive, please, I'm hat in hand.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 8 years ago

NIT Auto Bid chance would be zero, since NIT auto bids only go to regular season conference winners who don't get into the NCAA tournament. I don't see how Rhode Island could get the top seed in Brooklyn and not have a resume worthy of a Last 4 In Dance seed.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 8 years ago

Beating the Bonnie's would raise our spirits and put us in a very nice position.
Jarvis Garretts improvement has been one of the most encouraging parts about this season to me thus far. Now I'm getting excited to watch him. Now we just need JT to follow his lead. I think we are on the right path to having a really nice shot to win it all in Brooklyn. At least wind up in the NIT. All I feel I can hope for is for us to be playing our best come Brooklyn.
Next year I have no doubts that we'll be dancing. Maybe we can prove that by beating Duke in November.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Keatgsr07 wrote:
Seawrightspostgame wrote:I feel like keatgsr07 is a URI Ram that was swayed to the dark side.

Something about that black ram avatar and negative outlook.

It could have been that the mighty Friar lured him to the dark side with the promise of NCAA tourney bids. Don't blame him.

I will continue to wait for Luke Skywalker to awaken and go learn some jedi tricks from Tom Penders or some old jedi.
Give me something positive, please, I'm hat in hand.

Watch the Richmond and St L games again

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:
Keatgsr07 wrote:
Seawrightspostgame wrote:I feel like keatgsr07 is a URI Ram that was swayed to the dark side.

Something about that black ram avatar and negative outlook.

It could have been that the mighty Friar lured him to the dark side with the promise of NCAA tourney bids. Don't blame him.

I will continue to wait for Luke Skywalker to awaken and go learn some jedi tricks from Tom Penders or some old jedi.
Give me something positive, please, I'm hat in hand.
Watch the Richmond and St L games again

Doesn't take much for you to be wowed, eh. St. Louis is awful.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Keatgsr07 wrote:You're probably right.

I'm still heartbroken by this team, my tone reflects that. I was excited for this thing since May of last year, I couldn't wait for November. I feel like I imagine Red Sox fans felt after the 2003 ALCS Aaron Boone HR. Hopefully that adds context to the lack of "optimism."

Buddy...think about that. Sox fans had an awesome ride in '03 until it ended. When it ended, it was over...and that did kinda suck. This season is nowhere near the Aaron *&%#@! Boone stage...and won't be until they are done with Brooklyn at the very earliest. Get some Keaney blue on that logo and lighten up...lots and lots of hoops to go...

Cheers!

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote:Jarvis Garretts improvement has been one of the most encouraging parts about this season to me thus far. Now I'm getting excited to watch him.

Totally agree.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Give me something positive, please, I'm hat in hand.[/quote]

Watch the Richmond and St L games again

[/quote]

Doesn't take much for you to be wowed, eh. St. Louis is awful.[/quote]

Wouldn't say they 'wowed' against St L...but they played well...and that's a positive.

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

NYG REDSOX FAN - We're not going to see eye-eye. I'm looking for a NCAA appearance, period, end of story. All these little moral victories (St. Louis, please) are meaningless to me.

Let's you and I end this for the sake of the other members.

steveystuds06 · Unread post by **steveystuds06** » 8 years ago

Yes we played great at HOME against two teams we were favored to beat. Want the negative fans to be excited? Win on the road against a good team.

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

stevey get's it

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

It really is "show me" time....

or else it's really hard to get excited about the possibilities.....

Joe · Unread post by **Joe** » 8 years ago

I've heard Hurley say multiple times that the team's goals remain the same, even after EC went down.

You honestly expect DAN HURLEY, one of the most intense and competitive coaches in the NCAA, and his players, some of the most intense and competitive guys in the A10, to just settle down and dismiss the postseason?

Forget it.

Running Ram · Unread post by **Running Ram** » 8 years ago

those are two different things, beating good teams on the road and giving up on post season aspirations, that is. One of those is a fair aspiration for a fan the other is completely bat shit crazy, can you guess which is which? (sorry Keat, no disrespect intended)

It always Churchill for me "never give in, never give in, never never never, in nothing great or small, large or petty. Never give in..."

I've been as critical as anyone about our inability to beat good teams on the road, but please this isn't "suck for luck" no good can come of players lowering their expectations. Insanity.

Keatgsr07 · Unread post by **Keatgsr07** » 8 years ago

These guys aren't playing like a NCAA Tournament quality team and I have a hard time believing that's going to change anytime soon (this season).

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

Well, we are playing better than we did a few games ago.

There's that, I guess.

Still have to kick it up a notch or two to play with the big boys.

Don't know if we have that extra gear, though.

Putting it together for 40 minutes [or as close to 40 as possible] on the road is tough for most teams.

We haven't got there yet......

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Keatgsr07 wrote:NYG REDSOX FAN - We're not going to see eye-eye. I'm looking for a NCAA appearance, period, end of story. All these little moral victories (St. Louis, please) are meaningless to me.

Let's you and I end this for the sake of the other members.

You asked for 'anything positive'...I gave you something and you didn't like it, so, apparently..."the season's over, the sky has fallen, woe is me...and anyone that wants to say different, shut yer pie-hole." Don't ask for suggestions/responses and then judge the answers....

And I'm one of the 'fans that suck'...this is laughable...

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 8 years ago

ATPTourFan wrote:NIT Auto Bid chance would be zero, since NIT auto bids only go to regular season conference winners who don't get into the NCAA tournament. I don't see how Rhode Island could get the top seed in Brooklyn and not have a resume worthy of a Last 4 In Dance seed.

While it is probable that the A-10 regular season champ would be an at large, it comes down to who they beat for NCAA selection. URI was just one game back from 1st place last season and wasn't really close to an at large. Have a mundane OOC record, win games against the scrubs of the league, lose to the better league teams, and get knocked out in the A-10 1st round and you would likely not be in the NCAA.

STC · Unread post by **STC** » 8 years ago

Expectations coming into season:
100% NCAA Tournament

Expectations now:
0% NCAA Tournament
50% NIT

Expectations for 2016-17:
100% NCAA Tournament

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 8 years ago

We needed to beat Valpo, pc, Nebraska, and St Joe......we didn't.....we need to win the auto bid.... I don't think we can....we have a good team...not a bottom feeder but not upper crust...we may get to the NIT...

UCH21377 · Unread post by **UCH21377** » 8 years ago

I think an undisputed (no tie) regular season A10 title would get a bid. URI had a chance last year but blew a couple games they needed to win. That being said I see little or no chance they do it this year.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

UCH21377 wrote:I think an undisputed (no tie) regular season A10 title would get a bid. URI had a chance last year but blew a couple games they needed to win. That being said I see little or no chance they do it this year.

I think if they had been able to hang on against Dayton at Brooklyn last year, they would've been in, or at least received strong consideration...

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

Losing to Valpo was understandable. Right after EC went down. Still, FT's killed us.

Losing to PC was a tough break. We played our best game of the season other than maybe Richmond.

Losing to Nebraska was inexcusable. Coughed it away.

Losing to ODU was somewhat understandable. Shorthanded.

Losing to St. Joe. Good effort, but again late game issues doomed us.

Against Bonnies: What will be the excuse this time?

Dan said we will be better later in the season. Great. So will other teams.

It's turn it around time. NOW. Not later. Or else even the NIT might be slip slidin' away.......

And, we won't win 4 in a row in NY if we don't get the bye, whether we're better or not.

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