Path to getting Ranked

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Is there a path that gets this team ranked (Top 25 - don't even care what poll)? Is it win 5 in a row? 6 of 7? 8 in a row? 10? Victories against x, y, z? Curious to hear opinions of those that know more than me...can this team crack the Top 25...and if so, how do they do that? Is there a path to the Top 25 for this group?

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 8 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:Is there a path that gets this team ranked (Top 25 - don't even care what poll)? Is it win 5 in a row? 6 of 7? 8 in a row? 10? Victories against x, y, z? Curious to hear opinions of those that know more than me...can this team crack the Top 25...and if so, how do they do that? Is there a path to the Top 25 for this group?

Some of the best opportunities for signature wins are now past us. There is not one opponent the rest of the schedule that is currently ranked. URI would need to almost run the table late into the season to get into the rankings and that is extremely unlikely. Dreams of a ranking later this year are fantasy at this time.

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 8 years ago

For a non Blue Blood program:

1 - pre season hype plus wins (PC)
2 - pull off a big upset and keep winning
3 - get a rep over years as a top non Big 5 team (VCU, Xavier, Butler)

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

RF1 wrote:
NYGFan_Section208 wrote:Is there a path that gets this team ranked (Top 25 - don't even care what poll)? Is it win 5 in a row? 6 of 7? 8 in a row? 10? Victories against x, y, z? Curious to hear opinions of those that know more than me...can this team crack the Top 25...and if so, how do they do that? Is there a path to the Top 25 for this group?
Some of the best opportunities for signature wins are now past us. There is not one opponent the rest of the schedule that is currently ranked. URI would need to almost run the table late into the season to get into the rankings and that is extremely unlikely. Dreams of a ranking later this year are fantasy at this time.

I was afraid of this....

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 8 years ago

Win a bunch of games. That's a simple answer, but it's also the correct one. VCU has been consistently ranked in recent years with 25+ wins, and they were #25 in the final AP poll last year with a 26-9 record. That 0.742 winning percentage is probably one to shoot for, although early in the season obviously, it's mostly teams with just a few wins. I don't think there is a magical alchemy to it, it's just that URI hasn't had a team that's warranted being ranked since the Baron years.

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 8 years ago

The only way they can get ranked now is to beat GW Dayton, Davidson and VCU as well as richmond.
If those teams continue to win and URI beats all of them theyy will be ranked. Until they can win a few
big games, they won't get there. Let's start with one big game win for starters.

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 8 years ago

luke wrote:The only way they can get ranked now is to beat GW Dayton, Davidson and VCU as well as richmond.
If those teams continue to win and URI beats all of them theyy will be ranked. Until they can win a few
big games, they won't get there. Let's start with one big game win for starters.

.......maybe, don't forget not getting tripped up, on the road, against the middle and lower tiers of conference....just wn the next one and the one after that....

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

I don't know about polls, but to get to about 25th in the RPI, Rhody would have to go 23-8, which means 17-5 the rest of the way. If we lose to either Nebraska or ODU (two games in which we will likely be underdogs), that means 14-4 in the A10. Ironically, 23-8/14-4 is one of the few combinations nobody in the prediction contest picked.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

A 9-4 OOC record is doable for this group.

A 14-4 conference record is most likely not.

Not with our FT shooting.

If we were a 70% FT shooting team, then maybe.

What are we now, about 58%? Yikes.

brady1 · Unread post by **brady1** » 8 years ago

Thank GOD people have learned to use RPI Forecast. 23-8 would probably have us at least projected as an 8-9 seed before the A-10 tournament.

Will that record happen? It's up to team. Not DOOMBONE.

GO RHODY!

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 8 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:A 9-4 OOC record is doable for this group.

A 14-4 conference record is most likely not.

Not with our FT shooting.

If we were a 70% FT shooting team, then maybe.

What are we now, about 58%? Yikes.

I could see 9-4 and 12-6. Steal some games in Brooklyn and who knows could be close then

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

That's much more likely.

I guess Brady is going to help the team become better FT shooters....my bad......

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:That's much more likely.

I guess Brady is going to help the team become better FT shooters....my bad......

I don't know if he will or not...but pretty safe to say that he can't do anything to make it worse?

brady1 · Unread post by **brady1** » 8 years ago

DOOMBONE, the best thing about 21-10 is we'd have about a 41 RPI squarely on the BUBBLE. You'd be posting 24/7 not enough siggy wins, the eye test, ect, ect will never get in, we're DOOMBONED.

Think positive BONE good things will happen to you my friend.

GO RHODY!

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

What I want Brady, is this team to improve it's FT shooting.

Doesn't have to be a huge improvement, just enough to make a difference.

We are going to play a LOT of close games in conference. Maybe as many as one third to almost a half of the games will be decided by 5 points or less.

We continue to brick them, we will lose too many of those close games.

Remember Davidson last year? Remember we almost lost to Fordham because of our putrid FT shooting?

That will happen again if they don't get it together from the line.

I want to be optimistic really. I want us to go 14-4 in conference and Dance.

I think everybody on this board agrees with me about the consequences of our bad FT shooting.

Do you think we'll get better? Not just a little, they have to get considerably better.

I'm not DOOMBONE, I'm facing facts, unlike you.

The Dude · Unread post by **The Dude** » 8 years ago

If Rhody can run the table leading up to the Dayton game, I could see them being ranked. Rhody would be 21-3 by that time. I could even see them being ranked or at least getting Top 25 votes/consideration if they were 18-3 going into the UMass game. So basically if they can win till February.

Last year Rhody went 21-8 prior to entering A-10 Tournament play.
In my opinion, they would have to go 23-8 to be squarely on the bubble for the tournament and to have a shot at being one of the last four teams into the tournament. If they go 24-7 then they make the tournament without a problem. If they can go 26-5 or 25-6, I think they have a shot at being ranked, but they would have to have some quality wins against some or all of the following conference teams: GW, Davidson, and Dayton. Our schedule going forward just doesn't seem to be good enough to get us ranked unless we can beat GW, Davidson, and Dayton at least once.
If Rhody matches last year's record, I don't see them making the tournament, just like last year.
I don't see them making the tournament if they go 22-9 either (which is actually my prediction for this year, post EC). I think they would be on the bubble or involved with bubble-talk and would just miss out by being one of the last 4 out.

I feel like every year it always comes down to the same thing for us/Rhody. Quality wins. Rhody can have 22 or 23 wins, but they need to have some quality wins to separate themselves from the "bubble field." This is the area that always seems to send our NCAA Tournament dreams packing.

Recap:
26-5 - Ranked
25-6 - In the ranked discussion/getting votes, probably top 35.
24-7 - Tournament bound, probably in top 55.
23-8 - First 4 out or last 4 in, toss up/depends on quality wins and no "bad losses."
22-9 - Bubble talk, but out of Tournament. NIT bound.
21-10 - No bubble talk. NIT or NIT bubble.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 8 years ago

Our RPI is at about 118 now. The Houston win jumped us up quite a bit. We should be favored in every non conference game left at this point. 3 road wins and a win over top 100 Iona would give us a nice boost. Nebraska and ODU will be the tough ones.
Richmond will be our first conference attempt at getting a marquee win. Especially if they win out in their nonconference.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

I think Nebraska and ODU will be tossup games odds wise.

Winning close games on the road will tell the tale of this season....

Those 2 games will be a good barometer.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

There is more to basketball than free throw shooting. It's important, but you can't make the whole damn season about it. It shortchanges everything else that this team does well (or even not so well) to make pretend like it is the only thing that matters.

It's still too early in the season to do an incredibly deep analysis into exactly which games we need to win. It's helpful to have a general idea of what needs to happen, but part of the fun of being a fan is seeing how everything will play out. If you decide today that game X is must win, then the whole rest of the season is wasted if we don't win it? Why bother to tune into any game but that one?

brady1 · Unread post by **brady1** » 8 years ago

Dune, let me help you go to RPI Forecast.

23-8 predicted RPI 27 7-8 seed

22-8 predicted RPI 32 8-9 seed

GO RHODY!

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 8 years ago

We lost the three most important games for staying in the at large consideration. They need to run the table for awhile or win the tournament.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

So far, it's the same old story. Losing to the good teams.

It has to change, for the end result to change.

Our best "quality win" so far is Houston.

That's not much to hang our hats on......

TP, maybe FT shooting isn't the be all and end all....there are a lot of factors sure....

But to me, it will make or break our season.

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 8 years ago

theblueram wrote:We lost the three most important games for staying in the at large consideration. They need to run the table for awhile or win the tournament.

I understand this line of thinking, but geez, it's still so early we really don't have any idea how things are going to play out. Last year, Nebraska seemed like an awesome win, but by the end of the year it was pretty meh. Coming into this season, I thought PC was going to be middle of the pack in the Big East, and now, they look like a legit Top 25 team with the emergence of Bentil and the continued stellar play of Dunn. Even beyond that, we're talking about three games in a 30+ game season. There will be other opportunities for URI to pick up quality wins. Their destiny is still largely in their own hands.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

I will agree with that, Greenwell.

I want to be optimistic about getting those quality wins.

If we improve our FT shooting, then I will.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

SGreenwell wrote:
theblueram wrote:We lost the three most important games for staying in the at large consideration. They need to run the table for awhile or win the tournament.
I understand this line of thinking, but geez, it's still so early we really don't have any idea how things are going to play out. Last year, Nebraska seemed like an awesome win, but by the end of the year it was pretty meh. Coming into this season, I thought PC was going to be middle of the pack in the Big East, and now, they look like a legit Top 25 team with the emergence of Bentil and the continued stellar play of Dunn. Even beyond that, we're talking about three games in a 30+ game season. There will be other opportunities for URI to pick up quality wins. Their destiny is still largely in their own hands.

Plus...they are getting the NY Giant TV in the pub, which will undoubtedly have no impact on free throw shooting.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 8 years ago

The path to a ranking lies not just in us winning, but also in PC's continued success. The better they do, the better we look for playing them so close.

peeps4life · Unread post by **peeps4life** » 8 years ago

brady1 wrote:Dune, let me help you go to RPI Forecast.

23-8 predicted RPI 27 7-8 seed

22-8 predicted RPI 32 8-9 seed

GO RHODY!

RPI forecast is not just the record but WHO the losses and wins are against. lose to a cellar dwellar and it might take two good wins just to break even.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

peeps4life wrote:
brady1 wrote:Dune, let me help you go to RPI Forecast.

23-8 predicted RPI 27 7-8 seed

22-8 predicted RPI 32 8-9 seed

GO RHODY!
RPI forecast is not just the record but WHO the losses and wins are against. lose to a cellar dwellar and it might take two good wins just to break even.

Not sure if you're talking about resume or what, but that isn't how RPI works.

peeps4life · Unread post by **peeps4life** » 8 years ago

TruePoint wrote:
peeps4life wrote:
brady1 wrote:Dune, let me help you go to RPI Forecast.

23-8 predicted RPI 27 7-8 seed

22-8 predicted RPI 32 8-9 seed

GO RHODY!
RPI forecast is not just the record but WHO the losses and wins are against. lose to a cellar dwellar and it might take two good wins just to break even.
Not sure if you're talking about resume or what, but that isn't how RPI works.

ummm.... yes it is. a very bad loss at home to an A10 cellar dweller can impact RPI far more than a good win. it can cause you to need to play catch up with more good wins.

23-8 with bad losses is not the same as 23-8 with good wins and no bad losses.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

Yeah, no. This is a common misconception. The formula is pretty simple. Your winning percentage accounts for 1/4, your opponents' record accounts for 1/2, and your opponents' opponents' record accounts for 1/4. The games are weighed slightly for home and away, but otherwise every game impacts the calculation the same way. So it follows that if you beat a good team at home and lose to a bad team at home, or if you lose to the same good team at home and beat the same bad team at home, your record is the same, your cumulative opponents' record is the same and your opponents' opponents' record is the same. Now, you could argue that for the purposes of assembling a tournament resume, you'd rather have the good win (say an RPI top-25 win) with a bad loss than no good win and no bad loss, but that's a different discussion.

Team Ram-Jam · Unread post by **Team Ram-Jam** » 8 years ago

RPI is rather easy to calculate:

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

WP= your own win percentage
OWP = your opponents win percentage
OOWP = your opponents opponents win percentage

considering you can only control your own WP(25%), the planning of your schedule is very important pre-season task (75%)

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 8 years ago

Truepoint is correct. When you play (or heck, even schedule) a cellar dwellar, your RPI takes a BIG hit no matter what the outcome -- even BEFORE the outcome -- because you are inheriting their record and their opponents' record which combined account for 75% of the RPI weighting.

The result against the cellar dwellar only impacts your own Win Loss record, which is just 25% of the RPI calculation.

Separately, losing at home is worse since a home loss counts as 1.3 losses and a home win only counts as 0.7 wins.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Correct, the RPI is affected slightly for the loss. The biggest thing it hurts is the arbitrary resume. Strong wins, bad losses, etc. The only negative to URI to start the season is that they put nothing on the resume. Their top 50 record is 0-3. Conversely, their 100+ record has 0 losses, which is valuable because most bubble teams tend to have some bad hiccups.

If you buy on RPI Forecast, URI has 3 Top 50 games left, possibly 4. Also probably will need a strong road win. But eventually if you simply win enough, very hard to be left out.

kal-65 · Unread post by **kal-65** » 8 years ago

it does't seem our rpi will improve much over the next 4 ooc games.the 4 opponents have a combined .500 record and only iona isn't a rpi in the 200 range

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

You have to look at RPI as a long game. What happens to your RPI in any given week isn't that important, because only the number at the end matters. What is important now, from an RPI standpoint, is to avoid losses. Like I mentioned above, we can probably only have 5 or maybe 6 between now and Brooklyn to be in contention for a bid. So every loss is one closer to elimination. It is almost like a magic number situation.

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 8 years ago

Resisting the temptation to say "of course there's a path - win lots of games. Not much of a mystery." But, for discussion purposes, obviously a winning streak is needed, but for how long? Without a doubt the rest of our OOC games (@Nebraska, Iona, @Old Dominion, @Brown). Looking at the schedule, I believe we would have to start at least 6-0 in the A10 to get ranked (Saint Louis, Richmond, @Saint Joe's, @Saint Bonaventure, La Salle, @GW) - the last one being the key as GW has a strong resume thus far. That would put us on an 11-game win streak, 16-3 overall.

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 8 years ago

sf2010 wrote:Resisting the temptation to say "of course there's a path - win lots of games. Not much of a mystery." But, for discussion purposes, obviously a winning streak is needed, but for how long? Without a doubt the rest of our OOC games (@Nebraska, Iona, @Old Dominion, @Brown). Looking at the schedule, I believe we would have to start at least 6-0 in the A10 to get ranked (Saint Louis, Richmond, @Saint Joe's, @Saint Bonaventure, La Salle, @GW) - the last one being the key as GW has a strong resume thus far. That would put us on an 11-game win streak, 16-3 overall.

still comes down to the Murderers' Row in February. take care of business until then and go make a statement in that run.

taking 3 of 4 in Dayton, @VCU, @Davidson, @Dayton would put the team firmly in the discussion.

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 8 years ago

Da_Process_Survivor wrote:
sf2010 wrote:Resisting the temptation to say "of course there's a path - win lots of games. Not much of a mystery." But, for discussion purposes, obviously a winning streak is needed, but for how long? Without a doubt the rest of our OOC games (@Nebraska, Iona, @Old Dominion, @Brown). Looking at the schedule, I believe we would have to start at least 6-0 in the A10 to get ranked (Saint Louis, Richmond, @Saint Joe's, @Saint Bonaventure, La Salle, @GW) - the last one being the key as GW has a strong resume thus far. That would put us on an 11-game win streak, 16-3 overall.
still comes down to the Murderers' Row in February. take care of business until then and go make a statement in that run.

taking 3 of 4 in Dayton, @VCU, @Davidson, @Dayton would put the team firmly in the discussion.

True, that would also be one potential path - say starting 5-1 losing @GW, but then winning 3 of the 4 you mentioned.

Bigsnoop · Unread post by **Bigsnoop** » 8 years ago

URI is better than Nebraska and Old Dominion. They need to take care of business, and have a winning record among the VCU, Dayton, GW, and Davidson games to put themselves on track for an NCAA bid.

By the way, I believe the RPI was tweaked a while back so that a home win is worth 0.6 wins, and road win is worth 1.4 wins, with the reverse applied to losses. Neutral games are obviously weighted at 1.0.

luke · Unread post by **luke** » 8 years ago

Rambone, I predict that URI will shoot 68% from the free throw line the rest of the way.
That isn't great, but it is significantly better than they have done so far this season. I expect
both Iverson and Martin to improve the most, followed by Garrett. and I expect McGlynn to
improve back to his 90% shooting the rest of the way as well. Martin looks better at the line now
I think Iverson will improve to 60- 70 % . Those are my predictions. I expect URI to be favored in
every OOC game remaining except Nebraska and that could range from a pick to Nebraska -3. ODU
does not have its normally tough team this year.

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 8 years ago

Ranked? Don't talk about ranked. Are you kidding me? Ranked? (Insert Jim Mora's voice here)

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

Luke, I hope you're right.

Martin went 0-3 against Houston. Not good. He will have games where he makes most of his FT's, but have too many where he misses most of them. If that happens in games against good teams, that's a recipe for an L. Same for Iverson.

If they shoot it at 68% the rest of the way, that would put them about 65% for the year. Still not great, but with this group, I'd take it.

Rhodygrad98 · Unread post by **Rhodygrad98** » 8 years ago

@Nebraska and @ODU will be winnable, but very challenging for us. If we want to think about NCAAs we will need to win them or at minimum split and win 14 league games heading into Brooklyn.

From what I've seen so far, we really need Thompson to give us meaningful minutes (like the Providence game) and we need Iverson to be smart on the court. If we get both of those things to happen, we can be really successful. This team without EC is just not deep enough, but if Thompson can grow up fast he can be an "X" factor. Iverson scares me, the kid is loaded with talent, but his head is not always there.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

I agree that Iverson is loaded with talent...loaded. And he seems to show more and more flashes all the time. A lot of times, he seems like the only guy on the team that can actually 'create' his own shot opportunity. And if Thompson can forget this last game and play like he did against PC... I think this team can be really successful.

bressler3south · Unread post by **bressler3south** » 8 years ago

Path to getting ranked?
Don't lose.
1/3 of the season is gone, opportunities missed.
There can't be any more "what if" scenarios, a la JB's leaderless miscues and last year's shit-the-bed finish.
But it will happen; a string of bad losses to, say, Nebraska, Iona; St. Joe's; perhaps to Fordham -- yes, Fordham; then GW, Dayton, VCU, Davidson, and then that's all she wrote. Depending upon what happens in the A-10 tourney, NOT WINNING IT, the NIT is in question.
However, after watching Dayton out-execute and finish-off Vanderbilt the other night, I still desire and expect this team to be led as Dayton has been coached: Where there's a will, there's a way. No excuses.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Sooo...is there a scenario where, 'if they win x # in a row, starting now" that they get ranked? If they win the next 5 (@Nebraska, Iona, @ODU, @Brown, St. L)...do they get ranked?

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:Sooo...is there a scenario where, 'if they win x # in a row, starting now" that they get ranked? If they win the next 5 (@Nebraska, Iona, @ODU, @Brown, St. L)...do they get ranked?

I'm sure there is a scenario, but it is impossible to say what that is at this point. I don't disagree with you that getting into the top-25 in some polls would be huge for the basketball program, but I am also not sure I understand your single-minded obsession with the idea. It is possible we could go the entire season without ever being ranked and still get an at-large bid. We are so far away from cracking the top-25 right now that it probably shouldn't be our focus. I'd rather focus on Nebraska right now, and take it game-by-game. If we look up in three weeks and haven't lost since Providence, maybe then we can talk about being ranked.

bressler3south · Unread post by **bressler3south** » 8 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:Sooo...is there a scenario where, 'if they win x # in a row, starting now" that they get ranked? If they win the next 5 (@Nebraska, Iona, @ODU, @Brown, St. L)...do they get ranked?

Yeah, they do. In the Old Days it was called: The New England Top 10 Teams. What would one call it today?
N.E. Rankings (based upon RPI as of 12/11)

1. PC 13
2. UConn 87
3. URI 122
4. UMass 125
5. Yale 157
6. Northeastern 162
7. Vermont 165
8. BU 184
9. UNH 200
10. Fairfield 209
Others receiving RPI "votes": UMass-Lowell 215; Dartmouth 247; Harvard 254; Brown 271; Hartford 279; Holy Cross 280; Quinnipiac 288; Maine 291; BC 295; Sacred Heart 310; Bryant 339; Central Connecticut 351.

Interestingly, Bryant has played away games at Duke and Georgetown, and a bunch of losers, but has an SOS of only 234. Oh, well…...

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

I agree w you about playing well and possibly getting an at-large bid...I just really like the atmosphere of good-sized crowds and there's a lot of o-pinion out there as to why we don't see them. I am curious to see if being ranked will bring in big crowds (I think it will). Seems like a good baseline fact point to try to measure against...

PS: "single minded obsession" is unfortunately probably almost a compliment

...I actually have multiple obsessions outside of family life, including, but not limited to...the beer and TV sitch in the pub...CT cracking the starting lineup...how/if I can get my TV hooked up to see the game Sunday...the Red Sox...the Giants....

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 8 years ago

bressler3south wrote:Path to getting ranked?
Don't lose.
1/3 of the season is gone, opportunities missed.
There can't be any more "what if" scenarios, a la JB's leaderless miscues and last year's shit-the-bed finish.
But it will happen; a string of bad losses to, say, Nebraska, Iona; St. Joe's; perhaps to Fordham -- yes, Fordham; then GW, Dayton, VCU, Davidson, and then that's all she wrote. Depending upon what happens in the A-10 tourney, NOT WINNING IT, the NIT is in question.
However, after watching Dayton out-execute and finish-off Vanderbilt the other night, I still desire and expect this team to be led as Dayton has been coached: Where there's a will, there's a way. No excuses.

Did we really shit the bed at the end of last year? We went 6-4 in our last 10 before the NIT, and the only bad loss of the bunch was to St. Joe's. The other losses were to Davidson and twice to Dayton.

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