Joe Lunardi Bracketology

[ramster]

What a GREAT win for URI tonight!

HUGE!!

[Joe]

We're a worse team than last year.

I disagree. Our defense seems about the same, maybe a little worse than last year, but our offense has improved so much. Maybe its just me, but I'll take this team over last year's any day.

[Blue Man]

We're a worse team than last year.

I disagree. Our defense seems about the same, maybe a little worse than last year, but our offense has improved so much. Maybe its just me, but I'll take this team over last year's any day.

Talent-wise we certainly are. Losing a conference player of the year type isn't replaced with freshman or bench guys. That said, if this trend of shooting and play that we've seen for the past 2 and a half games keeps up, I will certainly have to retract that statement.

I would LOVE to retract that statement.

One game is an anomaly, two games can be a coincidence, three games would become a trend. If the shooting and overall play on the offensive end keeps up, not necessarily to see us 70% from deep, but if we could stay a team that shoots 40%+ from 3 and 70%+ from the line in conference, we may just have a season to be proud of.

[Blue Man]

Sorry for the back to back, but after 2 consecutive games of good-great offense, I am feeling better. I am still firmly in the camp that does not think we will be an at large team, and will need an A10 tournament win - but I'll enter the spin zone if we get a top 50 win on the road on Sunday... so for fun let's look at the spin zone:

The A10 schedule for us offers most likely 3 games against RPI top 25 opponents. Home and away vs Dayton, away vs GW.

The first big IF. HUGE IF...and a necessity if you want to be considered an at large team: you need to win at home vs Dayton, and on the road vs GW. I'm conceding no shot of winning at Dayton.

That would give us a 2-3 record vs the top 25. No at-large birth happens without this scenario.

We also need to at a minimum split with St Joes, the only top 50 team currently on our schedule we play twice. We would also need to split @ Davidson, and @ VCU, who should find their way up into the top 50. 2-2 vs top 50 and 2-3 vs top 25 gives us a resume to work with.

Essentially we will know if the at-large dream is alive by the morning of January 23rd. We would legitimately have to open conference play 5-1, the only affordable loss being this Sunday (as long as St Joes stays in the top 50). That would give us the 2 top 25 wins we will need. Our resume by that point will have the potential for an at large bid.

The spinzone schedule (as the rankings currently stand):

39 @ Joes - L (10-6, 2-1) (0-2 top 25, 0-1 top 50)* - I expect Valpo to drop out.
77 @ Bonnies - W (11-6, 3-1) (0-2 top 25, 0-1 top 50)
276 La Salle - W (12-6, 4-1) (0-2 top 25, 0-1 top 50)
16 @ GW - W (13-6, 5-1) (1-2 top 25, 0-1 top 50)
150 Fordham - W (14-6, 6-1) (1-2 top 25, 0-1 top 50)
39 St Joes - W (15-6, 7-1) (1-2 top 25, 1-1 top 50)
135 @ UMass - L (15-7, 7-2) (1-2 top 25, 1-1 top 50)
276 @ La Salle - W (16-7, 8-2) (1-2 top 25, 1-1 top 50)
169 GM - W (17-7, 9-2) (1-2 top 25, 1-1 top 50)
12 Dayton - W (18-7, 10-2) (2-2 top 25, 1-1 top 50)
101 @ VCU - L (18-8, 10-3) (2-2 top 25, 1-2 top 50)* I expect VCU to be top 50
121 Duquesne - W (19-8, 11-3) (2-2 top 25, 1-2 top 50)
44 @ Davidson - W (20-8, 12-3) (2-2 top 25, 2-2 top 50)
12 @ Dayton - L (20-9, 12-4) (2-3 top 25, 2-2 top 50)
135 UMass - W (21-9, 13-4) (2-3 top 25, 2-2 top 50)
150 @ Fordham W (22-9, 14-4) (2-3 top 25, 2-2 top 50)

With this, quazi, hopeful, maybe, possibly, realistic? scenario...we're a bubble team. Last 4 in, maybe, because we will have a home loss to a team out of the top 50, 3 road losses to teams out of the top 100.

The key to everything is the games against top 25 and top 50 teams. That's the NCAA hopes. Those 7 games. Really the top 25 games. Even if we went 4-0 vs Joes twice, Davidson, and VCU - 0-5 vs the top 25 keeps us out.

That said, let's go to that shop of horrors in Philly, and reallllly enter some spin-zone fun!

[TruePoint]

BlueMan - for the record, running your scenario in rpiwizard, we would be at 22-9, RPI of 34. For fun, I added (assuming 14-4 would get us a bye), a Brooklyn win vs Bonnies and a loss to Dayton. Would put us at 23-10, RPI of 33. That would put us squarely in. For further fun, I ran it with 13-5 (loss @ Fordham), then added an opening round win against La Salle. 23-11, RPI of 44. Probably not in but definitely right on the bubble, could fall in. However, same scenario but beat VCU in semis and lose to Dayton in final and record of 24-11, RPI of 37 would almost certainly get us in.

I agreed with your post. Wanted to run some data on it to give it some more context.

[Blue Man]

BlueMan - for the record, running your scenario in rpiwizard, we would be at 22-9, RPI of 34. For fun, I added (assuming 14-4 would get us a bye), a Brooklyn win vs Bonnies and a loss to Dayton. Would put us at 23-10, RPI of 33. That would put us squarely in. For further fun, I ran it with 13-5 (loss @ Fordham), then added an opening round win against La Salle. 23-11, RPI of 44. Probably not in but definitely right on the bubble, could fall in. However, same scenario but beat VCU in semis and lose to Dayton in final and record of 24-11, RPI of 37 would almost certainly get us in.

I agreed with your post. Wanted to run some data on it to give it some more context.

TO THE SPINZONE AND THEN TO PACOS!

[SmartyBarrett]

BlueMan - for the record, running your scenario in rpiwizard, we would be at 22-9, RPI of 34. For fun, I added (assuming 14-4 would get us a bye), a Brooklyn win vs Bonnies and a loss to Dayton. Would put us at 23-10, RPI of 33. That would put us squarely in. For further fun, I ran it with 13-5 (loss @ Fordham), then added an opening round win against La Salle. 23-11, RPI of 44. Probably not in but definitely right on the bubble, could fall in. However, same scenario but beat VCU in semis and lose to Dayton in final and record of 24-11, RPI of 37 would almost certainly get us in.

I agreed with your post. Wanted to run some data on it to give it some more context.

What is this RPI Wizard you speak of?

EDIT: Welp, there goes the rest of my afternoon.

[Sweep The Leg]

BlueMan - for the record, running your scenario in rpiwizard, we would be at 22-9, RPI of 34. For fun, I added (assuming 14-4 would get us a bye), a Brooklyn win vs Bonnies and a loss to Dayton. Would put us at 23-10, RPI of 33. That would put us squarely in. For further fun, I ran it with 13-5 (loss @ Fordham), then added an opening round win against La Salle. 23-11, RPI of 44. Probably not in but definitely right on the bubble, could fall in. However, same scenario but beat VCU in semis and lose to Dayton in final and record of 24-11, RPI of 37 would almost certainly get us in.

I agreed with your post. Wanted to run some data on it to give it some more context.

What is this RPI Wizard you speak of?

EDIT: Welp, there goes the rest of my afternoon.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html

Click on the RPI Wizard icon and have fun.

[steviep123]

There was no consideration last year. Probably none if we beat Dayton and went to the finals. Can't just beat the cupcakes and lose to the teams that matter. It doesn't matter if your 25-5.

Losing to Dayton 56-52 hurt especially having lost to Dayton earlier in A10 play at Dayton by a wide margin.
We also lost the only head to head game with VCU.
So 2 losses to Dayton. 1 loss to VCU and Davidson won the league so That did URI in.
I'm not saying OOC is not important but I think some underestimate that criticality of the Conference games. Tonight's game is more important to URI than the ODU or Nebraska games imho.

Losing at home to both VCU and Davidson hurt us. I think if we won both those games it would have put us over the top. Win 1 of the 2, I'm not sure. Both were at home which hurt. But it's now this year. Keep playing this well and the wins will continue.

We do have a tough game at SJU and we never get any breaks on Hawk Hill. That tough stretch near the end of the season well tell how we really do.

[Section104]

OT, but if anyone watches "Making a Murderer" Netflix series- Officer James Lenk looks exactly like Phil Martelli.

[Keatgsr07]

OT, but if anyone watches "Making a Murderer" Netflix series- Officer James Lenk looks exactly like Phil Martelli.

Ha, good call... doppleganger

Lenk
http://lovelace-media.imgix.net/uploads ... ormat&q=70

Martelli
http://delconewsnetwork.com/content/art ... 741971.jpg

[brady1]

Love THE RAM twenty/thirty something's. Glad to have ya the "New Bread" but it seems like most of them never seeing a URI BIGDANCE game in person think you literally have to have a four seed resume to make the DANCE. The last 6 teams in all have crap resumes not enough quality wins or too many bad losses or ect ect and they play themselves in. Something URI hasn't done in GOD can remember how long.

Please don't bring up the Baron 30 something RPI team ranked team mid season. That went from a 7 seed with a quarter of the A-10 schedule left to out of the DANCE, that was an all time NCAA choke job, not Rhody choke job, but history of playing yourself a solid seed to off the bubble in two weeks. Collapse! Ask anyone who donates big that was IT for Baron. It was an abomination.

Is this RHODY team an NCAA team. Who knows? But this is all computerized now so please stop with that's not ENOUGH! You hopefully have a day job the computer doesn't.

GO RHODY!

[ramster]

Love THE RAM twenty/thirty something's. Glad to have ya the "New Bread" but it seems like most of them never seeing a URI BIGDANCE game in person think you literally have to have a four seed resume to make the DANCE. The last 6 teams in all have crap resumes not enough quality wins or too many bad losses or ect ect and they play themselves in. Something URI hasn't done in GOD can remember how long.

Please don't bring up the Baron 30 something RPI team ranked team mid season. That went from a 7 seed with a quarter of the A-10 schedule left to out of the DANCE, that was an all time NCAA choke job, not Rhody choke job, but history of playing yourself a solid seed to off the bubble in two weeks. Collapse! Ask anyone who donates big that was IT for Baron. It was an abomination.

Is this RHODY team an NCAA team. Who knows? But this is all computerized now so please stop with that's not ENOUGH! You hopefully have a day job the computer doesn't.

GO RHODY!

Good points. Just consider Lunardi had Richmond in his last 4 out just last night.
It's all about conference now.
I loved getting a nice lead last night and then having Iverson, Martin and Thompson coming in off the Bench!! Imagine Mooney?? It's like 3 starters coming in off the bench at the time you are going to your own bench.
A lot of A10 season to go

[ElmCityRhody]

Thompson impresses me very much

He's become one of my faves

Sweet stroke

[theblueram]

Love THE RAM twenty/thirty something's. Glad to have ya the "New Bread" but it seems like most of them never seeing a URI BIGDANCE game in person think you literally have to have a four seed resume to make the DANCE. The last 6 teams in all have crap resumes not enough quality wins or too many bad losses or ect ect and they play themselves in. Something URI hasn't done in GOD can remember how long.

Please don't bring up the Baron 30 something RPI team ranked team mid season. That went from a 7 seed with a quarter of the A-10 schedule left to out of the DANCE, that was an all time NCAA choke job, not Rhody choke job, but history of playing yourself a solid seed to off the bubble in two weeks. Collapse! Ask anyone who donates big that was IT for Baron. It was an abomination.

Is this RHODY team an NCAA team. Who knows? But this is all computerized now so please stop with that's not ENOUGH! You hopefully have a day job the computer doesn't.

GO RHODY!

Good points. Just consider Lunardi had Richmond in his last 4 out just last night.
It's all about conference now.
I loved getting a nice lead last night and then having Iverson, Martin and Thompson coming in off the Bench!! Imagine Mooney?? It's like 3 starters coming in off the bench at the time you are going to your own bench.
A lot of A10 season to go

This is the kind of depth we need to really do something amazing in a season.

[TruePoint]

BlueMan - for the record, running your scenario in rpiwizard, we would be at 22-9, RPI of 34. For fun, I added (assuming 14-4 would get us a bye), a Brooklyn win vs Bonnies and a loss to Dayton. Would put us at 23-10, RPI of 33. That would put us squarely in. For further fun, I ran it with 13-5 (loss @ Fordham), then added an opening round win against La Salle. 23-11, RPI of 44. Probably not in but definitely right on the bubble, could fall in. However, same scenario but beat VCU in semis and lose to Dayton in final and record of 24-11, RPI of 37 would almost certainly get us in.

I agreed with your post. Wanted to run some data on it to give it some more context.

What is this RPI Wizard you speak of?

EDIT: Welp, there goes the rest of my afternoon.

It's such a rabbit hole

[URI2006_Andy]

playing around with the wizard...

7-0 at home
4-5 away (includes losing our next 2)
2-1 Beat Umass (quarter) GW (semi); lose to Dayton in the finals

23-11 rpi 34

I guess my point is pack the Ryan Center and win out at home.

[ATPTourFan]

Nice. RPI Wizard is very fun, and very relevant now since the only unknowns in the Selection Sunday RPI at this point are where you are winning and losing games and which teams you may see in Brooklyn.

You can look at it in terms of what is in control by URI and what is not. We can control if we win games and where we win them, but we don't control what the other teams do [(which comprise Opponents' (50%) and Opponents' Opponents' Win-Loss records (25%)]. For that, the Wizard relies on constantly updated Sagarin predictor ratings.

Of course, for resume building, it DOES obviously matter WHO you beat and where.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Nice. RPI Wizard is very fun, and very relevant now since the only unknowns in the Selection Sunday RPI at this point are where you are winning and losing games and which teams you may see in Brooklyn.

You can look at it in terms of what is in control by URI and what is not. We can control if we win games and where we win them, but we don't control what the other teams do [(which comprise Opponents' (50%) and Opponents' Opponents' Win-Loss records (25%)]. For that, the Wizard relies on constantly updated Sagarin predictor ratings.

Of course, for resume building, it DOES obviously matter WHO you beat and where.

I just want to know...does 'the wizard' wear a tin foil hat? If not, would be skeptical that he is a 'real' wizard...

[kal-65]

HOW MUCH REPRESENTATION DOES THE A-10 HAVE ON THE SELECTION COMMITTEE.THE LAST FEW TEAMS IN GET LOBBIED BY THE POWER CONFERENCES.ITS ALL ABOUT MONEY

[ATPTourFan]

No, there is no A10 representation on the men's tournament selection committee.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/med ... -committee

[steveystuds06]

OT, but if anyone watches "Making a Murderer" Netflix series- Officer James Lenk looks exactly like Phil Martelli.

I said the same thing! haha I binged that show in 3 days I loved it.

[URI2006_Andy]

No, there is no A10 representation on the men's tournament selection committee.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-committee

The selection criteria is interesting:

Some of the other criteria besides RPI that the committee considers in the selections process are:

Rankings by regional advisory committees of coaches; Interesting to know who makes up this committee.

Injuries to key players; Martin (left early in ODU game ended up losing; other games we won despite the injuries)

Special circumstances that may have affected a team‘s performance in certain games, such as weather-related travel difficulties; Not sure if the emotional distress of the EC injury vs Valpo is factored in here but I wish I was in the committee room to make an argument.

[Joe]

Updated again yesterday.

3 A10 teams in - VCU, Dayton, GW

St Joes is the 5th team out, and Richmond is gone.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology