Joe Lunardi Bracketology

Joe · Unread post by **Joe** » 8 years ago

He has URI as the 7th team out.

Dayton is a 7 seed
VCU is an 11 seed
GW is a 9 seed
Davidson is the 5th team out

5 A10 teams already on the bubble and its only December. I think that's a good sign because usually A10 teams only start getting credit towards the end of the season, with little respect early on.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... ration/161

Joe · Unread post by **Joe** » 8 years ago

Just updated today
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi is predicting only two A10 bids - Dayton as a 5 and GW as a 7.

It is interesting to note that St Joes & Richmond are both in the first four out and the next four out, respectively.

We have back to back games vs both those teams, I think that if we can pull out both games we will be back in the discussion.

There is still a lot of basketball to be played and a long time to go, so making any viable final bracket predictions is impossible, but being in the conversation early is still important.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 8 years ago

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 8 years ago

We aren't an NCAA team short of the debut of ESPN's 30 for 30 special "One Weekend In Brooklyn: The Unlikely Story of the 2015-16 URI Rams"

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Blue Man wrote:We aren't an NCAA team short of the debut of ESPN's 30 for 30 special "One Weekend In Brooklyn: The Unlikely Story of the 2015-16 URI Rams"

As previous poster said, there is a LOT of basketball left....but if it takes a 30 for 30 story...will take that, too!

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 8 years ago

We weren't an NCAA team in 1999 until Lamar Odom hit a 25 footer at the buzzer.
Keep believing Blueeeeeee!

PlayMikeMotenMore · Unread post by **PlayMikeMotenMore** » 8 years ago

If you think this regular season will lead to an at-large bid, keep dreaming. As noted, the only way they get to the NCAA's is thru Brooklyn.

URI did nothing in the non-conference.

Dre3000 · Unread post by **Dre3000** » 8 years ago

PlayMikeMotenMore wrote:If you think this regular season will lead to an at-large bid, keep dreaming. As noted, the only way they get to the NCAA's is thru Brooklyn.

URI did nothing in the non-conference.

This just simply isn't true. Houston may still end up as a quality win and we had 0 bad losses. Last year Richmond was 1 win away from making the tourney and had a much worse non-conference than we did this year. Despite everyone's attitude about our non-conference play this year we actually finished with 1 more D1 win than last year and played a much harder non-conference schedule. We have a lot of work to do but getting 3 wins over the top teams in our conference certainly puts us in the conversation.

Finish 12-6 and make it to at least the semi-final and maybe the final and we would be one of the last in.

BPR2010 · Unread post by **BPR2010** » 8 years ago

Nebraska is a bad loss this season. Currently with an RPI of 223, which will crack the 200 barrier as Big Ten play continues. That's not good on the resume. We have zero top 50 wins thus far, went 0-3 in those games. Houston currently has an RPI of 132 which could go sub-100 by the time conference play is over. As discussed on here many times, not all wins are created equally. It was the story of last season. Not beating any of Maryland/PC/Valpo gives us nothing of stand-out value to hang our non-conference on. Just my take on this, but we don't have an at-large resume at all thus far. Beating Dayton/GW/VCU would certainly help though.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Dre3000 wrote:
PlayMikeMotenMore wrote:If you think this regular season will lead to an at-large bid, keep dreaming. As noted, the only way they get to the NCAA's is thru Brooklyn.

URI did nothing in the non-conference.
This just simply isn't true. Houston may still end up as a quality win and we had 0 bad losses. Last year Richmond was 1 win away from making the tourney and had a much worse non-conference than we did this year. Despite everyone's attitude about our non-conference play this year we actually finished with 1 more D1 win than last year and played a much harder non-conference schedule. We have a lot of work to do but getting 3 wins over the top teams in our conference certainly puts us in the conversation.

Finish 12-6 and make it to at least the semi-final and maybe the final and we would be one of the last in.

Agree.
It's all about conference now.
Need to finish in top 3 regular season and at least go to semifinals in A10 tournament.
If teams do not finish in top 3 regular season then OOC will not matter very much

Running Ram · Unread post by **Running Ram** » 8 years ago

here we go again, now i have to fill my quill with pessimism arrows, this is why I get that rep, delusional optimism met by reality...

We have 0 'high quality' wins, of course all wins are quality, but we all know what I'm talking about and we do have two 'bad' loses. To deny this fact is where the delusional behavior is evident. The Houston win could become a 'quality' win, funny because its true and currently our 'best' win. Nebraska (even as away games) and ODU are 'bad' loses, We have one 'away' win and it may as well have been a home game at the Pizz, our fans probably out numbered Brown fans. None of this means we can't still get an at large bid, but we'd need to cut through the A10 like a hot knife through butter, 12-6 just won't do it, try 15-3, then we'll talk. If we get a good handful of 'quality' conference wins and end up with 14-16 wins then we have a reason to tune into the selections shows, otherwise gotta win the A10 tournament, any of these scenarios are possible so stay tuned Rhody fans.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 8 years ago

Yep in order to get in the at-large discussion we'd have to win 14+ in conference play. And do damage in the conference tourney to secure a ticket.
Thus far we're still eligible to go 18-0

Dre3000 · Unread post by **Dre3000** » 8 years ago

I guess I just find it hard to label a game where you weren't favored to win as a bad loss especially on the road. ODU was favored to win against us and is the favorite in every game left on their schedule. Of course anything could happen but that is a likely a tourney team. And again look at Richmond last year no high quality wins in the non-conference, 0 road wins, 2 bad losses, finished 12-6 in conference, but ended up being in the first four out last year with 0 wins in the A-10 tourney.

They hit conference play and split with Davidson, split with GW, and beat a hobbled VCU twice and boom they were in the conversation. If Richmond won two games in the A-10 tourney they would have made the NCAA tourney.

All I'm saying is there are scenarios where we finish 12-6 and still get an at-large bid.

steveystuds06 · Unread post by **steveystuds06** » 8 years ago

I don't think it's going to happen, but to say it's impossible to get in at large bid before Brooklyn isn't true at this point. If we finish 14-4 we are right there. Obviously that's going to be extremely difficult. I personally think our most realistic chance is going on a run in Brooklyn.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Dre3000 wrote:I guess I just find it hard to label a game where you weren't favored to win as a bad loss especially on the road. ODU was favored to win against us and is the favorite in every game left on their schedule. Of course anything could happen but that is a likely a tourney team. And again look at Richmond last year no high quality wins in the non-conference, 0 road wins, 2 bad losses, finished 12-6 in conference, but ended up being in the first four out last year with 0 wins in the A-10 tourney.

They hit conference play and split with Davidson, split with GW, and beat a hobbled VCU twice and boom they were in the conversation. If Richmond won two games in the A-10 tourney they would have made the NCAA tourney.

All I'm saying is there are scenarios where we finish 12-6 and still get an at-large bid.

We were underdogs to ODU and to Nebraska both on the road. They are losses but not bad losses.

Running Ram · Unread post by **Running Ram** » 8 years ago

They most certainly are bad losses, they bring our RPI down and they are failed attempts to grab winnable road games, thus far that part of the resume is lacking to say the least, all I'm saying is to be realistic, if you want to toss around the at-large conversation we have to handle business in the A10 and 12-6 puts us at 20-11 before NYC. That doesn't cut it. Using last year's Richmond squad is a bad argument, they didn't get in. First four out means nothing, last four in means something. This is why we are currently posting in the 'NCAA's or Bust!' forum.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Running Ram wrote:They most certainly are bad losses, they bring our RPI down and they are failed attempts to grab winnable road games, thus far that part of the resume is lacking to say the least, all I'm saying is to be realistic, if you want to toss around the at-large conversation we have to handle business in the A10 and 12-6 puts us at 20-11 before NYC. That doesn't cut it. Using last year's Richmond squad is a bad argument, they didn't get in. First four out means nothing, last four in means something. This is why we are currently posting in the 'NCAA's or Bust!' forum.

It all depends on how you categorize a bad loss.
Losing a game on the road in which you were the underdog is not a bad loss. It would be considered an upset win if you won on the road as an underdog.

Just different interpretations of the term "bad loss"

Losing to Brown would have been a bad loss since we were favored. A much worse loss than Nebraska or ODU, nowhere near equivalent.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

We'll have a much better idea of what our chances are after tonight's and the St. Joes game.

We are not close to an NCAA tourney team at the moment.

Win the next 2, and then we can re-enter the conversation.

Tonight's game is winnable. Not sure about the next one.

Even though we are playing better, that has to translate to road games too. Will our younger players continue their success there?

That's tough. Hagan arena has been our personal house of horrors, even when we've been favored. We won't be this time.

ramster, those 2 games were VERY winnable, favored or not. If we had beaten Valpo and PC, which we should have, we would have been favored.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:We'll have a much better idea of what our chances are after tonight's and the St. Joes game.

We are not close to an NCAA tourney team at the moment.

Win the next 2, and then we can re-enter the conversation.

Tonight's game is winnable. Not sure about the next one.

Even though we are playing better, that has to translate to road games too. Will our younger players continue their success there?

That's tough. Hagan arena has been our personal house of horrors, even when we've been favored. We won't be this time.

ramster, those 2 games were VERY winnable, favored or not. If we had beaten Valpo and PC, which we should have, we would have been favored.

Rambone,
Of course they were winnable. We almost won them both, but We were underdogs on the point spread in both playing on the road. My point is that in my opinion there are not classified as bad losses, they are simply losses.
Losing to Brown with an RPI of 306, in which we were favored would be a bad loss. Any game lost in which we go in favored would be a bad loss. Losing to SLU would have been a bad loss, losing either of the two upcoming games with LaSalle will be bad loses whether at home or away.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

If you follow RPI Forecast, they project:
11-7 70 RPI (their expected record)
12-6 61 RPI
13-5 49 RPI
14-4 40 RPI
15-3 32 RPI

Dre3000 · Unread post by **Dre3000** » 8 years ago

Running Ram you are missing the point in using Richmond. I have stated they did not make it in; but they also did nothing in the A-10 tourney. 2 wins in the tourney and they absolutely would have been in. But since you don't like Richmond we can use Boise State. Going 20-11 on the season then 2-1 in the conference tourney would put us at an RPI in the mid 40s and a SOS in the 60s. Last year Boise State finished with an RPI of 46 and SOS at 110 and received an at-large. They had no major quality wins and 1 bad loss with a record of 8-3 vs D1 teams, went 14-4 in a weaker conference, and 1-1 in the conference tourney.

We still have an estimated 5 games against top 50 RPI teams. There are still a good number of opportunities to perform well enough to get an at-large period.

RJ: RPI forecast doesn't include the tourney, use the wizard and see what 2 wins in the tourney. Also forecast doesn't decide WHICH games you win which makes all the difference.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 8 years ago

Anyone who thinks we will enter the at large conversation by having any less than 16 wins in the 7th best conference in the country doesn't know what they're talking about, doesn't pay attention to basketball outside of Kingston, is just being blindly optimistic, or is flat out lying to themselves.

Currently 0-3 vs the top 50, 2 home losses, 2 losses outside of the top 150, 1 currently out of the top 200.

There's nothing wrong with us needing to win in Brooklyn to get in. It's OK to understand that reality. We lost our leading scorer 9 minutes into the season. We're a worse team than last year. 23-8 lacking a true marquee win doesn't get you there nowadays. 23-8 if PC was one of those wins would get us there, but we didn't get that win.

Understanding the reality of needing to get top 4 so we can be guaranteed a bye in Brooklyn is probably the ceiling and a miracle for this group as it is, doesn't make you any less of a fan, it means you watch more basketball than what happens in the Ryan Center. It sets the expectations so that you can root for this team to make something crazy happen, rather than blow up when we don't get an invite.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

Someday we have to start winning the tossup games against better teams, whether it's at home or on the road. And score an upset or two as an underdog same way.

The next two games are an opportunity to do just that.

We can not be taken seriously until we do that.

Is this team good enough with the development of the new players?

It looks to me like Hassan, if he plays at all tonight, won't be very effective, but he should be back at close to full strength by the St.Joes game.

Just keep the ball moving tonight, actually every game from here on out. Do not go back to the plodding half court offense. Please.

RJ, thanks for that. Makes sense. Anything more than 8 total losses, and we're on the outside looking in going to NY.

However I can't see us going 15-3. Not doable. I agree with Blue Man's assessment of the situation. Maybe 12-6, and hope that we peak at the Barclays.

Too many road games against the top of the league. We'll be fortunate to end up above .500 on the road in conference by the end of the season. 5-4 maybe?

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Blue Man wrote:Anyone who thinks we will enter the at large conversation by having any less than 16 wins in the 7th best conference in the country doesn't know what they're talking about, doesn't pay attention to basketball outside of Kingston, is just being blindly optimistic, or is flat out lying to themselves.

Currently 0-3 vs the top 50, 2 home losses, 2 losses outside of the top 150, 1 currently out of the top 200.

There's nothing wrong with us needing to win in Brooklyn to get in. It's OK to understand that reality. We lost our leading scorer 9 minutes into the season. We're a worse team than last year. 23-8 lacking a true marquee win doesn't get you there nowadays. 23-8 if PC was one of those wins would get us there, but we didn't get that win.

Understanding the reality of needing to get top 4 so we can be guaranteed a bye in Brooklyn is probably the ceiling and a miracle for this group as it is, doesn't make you any less of a fan, it means you watch more basketball than what happens in the Ryan Center. It sets the expectations so that you can root for this team to make something crazy happen, rather than blow up when we don't get an invite.

Anyone who thinks we will enter the at large conversation by having any less than 16 wins in the 7th best conference in the country doesn't know what they're talking about, doesn't pay attention to basketball outside of Kingston, is just being blindly optimistic, or is flat out lying to themselves

Blue Man,

Are you saying anything worse than 16-2 will not even enter conversation for an NCAA Bid? Are you including only the A10 Season or does 16 wins also include wins in the A10 Tournament?
So 15-3, 14-4 and 13-5 in regular season have no chance even for conversation?

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

ramster, look at the RPI forecasts.

I know there is some room for variation depending on who you beat and where. but it certainly looks like we'd be AT BEST on the bubble at 14-4 or 15-3.

I think Blue Man is talking about not including NY, as am I.

But you really think we have a chance to be better than 12-6?

Dreamers.......

We don't even know yet if we're good enough to win tonight or the next few games. This talk should end until we start proving something......

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:
Blue Man wrote:Anyone who thinks we will enter the at large conversation by having any less than 16 wins in the 7th best conference in the country doesn't know what they're talking about, doesn't pay attention to basketball outside of Kingston, is just being blindly optimistic, or is flat out lying to themselves.

Currently 0-3 vs the top 50, 2 home losses, 2 losses outside of the top 150, 1 currently out of the top 200.

There's nothing wrong with us needing to win in Brooklyn to get in. It's OK to understand that reality. We lost our leading scorer 9 minutes into the season. We're a worse team than last year. 23-8 lacking a true marquee win doesn't get you there nowadays. 23-8 if PC was one of those wins would get us there, but we didn't get that win.

Understanding the reality of needing to get top 4 so we can be guaranteed a bye in Brooklyn is probably the ceiling and a miracle for this group as it is, doesn't make you any less of a fan, it means you watch more basketball than what happens in the Ryan Center. It sets the expectations so that you can root for this team to make something crazy happen, rather than blow up when we don't get an invite.
Anyone who thinks we will enter the at large conversation by having any less than 16 wins in the 7th best conference in the country doesn't know what they're talking about, doesn't pay attention to basketball outside of Kingston, is just being blindly optimistic, or is flat out lying to themselves

Blue Man,

Are you saying anything worse than 16-2 will not even enter conversation for an NCAA Bid? Are you including only the A10 Season or does 16 wins also include wins in the A10 Tournament?
So 15-3, 14-4 and 13-5 in regular season have no chance even for conversation?

That's regular season. I just don't believe the A10 will offer good enough games on the schedule. Top to bottom the conference is much closer than it ever has been, which means instead of the top 2 or 3 teams in the top 25, you'll probably see the top 6 or 7 teams between 50-75. That doesn't give us an opportunity for a resume building win.

Wins don't equal tournament births. Remember that guy Jim Baron? Plenty of wins there. But not the right wins. We missed the opportunities this season to get the right wins. We had 3 top 50 games. 2 at home. If we had even 1 of those wins, that completely changes the season.

How do you think Michigan State can get into the tourney with 18 wins? They beat the right teams. How do you think Murray State misses out with 29 wins? They didn't beat the right teams.

In the committee's eyes, they look at how you did against teams in the field. The top 50. The top 25. "Good" wins don't exist outside of those numbers. Every single year you look at us being left out - go back and look at how we performed against those groups. I bet there's a trend.

If the A10 doesn't cannibalize itself, and can keep 1 or 2 teams in the Top 25, and 3 or 4 teams in the top 50, IF we BEAT those teams, then maybe that changes things. As of now - Brooklyn or bust, lets shock some people!

gorhody89 · Unread post by **gorhody89** » 8 years ago

What we should be focusing on:
1. Continue to show improvement
2. Get healthy
3. Finish in top 4 of A10, get double bye to quarterfinals
4. Peak at right time and play best ball of year at the end

That's it, wasting our time focusing on bubble...we needed to beat PC and win 1 of the valpo, Nebraska, or OD game

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 8 years ago

gorhody89 wrote:What we should be focusing on:
1. Continue to show improvement
2. Get healthy
3. Finish in top 4 of A10, get double bye to quarterfinals
4. Peak at right time and play best ball of year at the end

That's it, wasting our time focusing on bubble...we needed to beat PC and win 1 of the valpo, Nebraska, or OD game

Exactly.

More stats -

Here are the years where we probably entertained NCAA hopes, and didn't make it.

2014 - 21 wins 0-2 vs Top 25, 1-4 vs Top 50
2010 - 19 wins 0-5 vs Top 25, 2-2 vs Top 50
2009 - 23 wins 0-5 vs Top 25, 1-0 vs Top 50
2008 - 22 wins 0-4 vs Top 25, 3-1 vs Top 50
2007 - 21 wins 0-1 vs Top 25, 2-5 vs Top 50

Here are our last 3 trips to the dance:

1999 - 20 wins 2-4 vs Top 25, 2-1 vs Top 50 (A10 Tournament Win)
1998 - 22 wins 2-5 vs Top 25, 3-1 vs Top 50
1997 - 20 wins 2-3 vs Top 25, 4-4 vs Top 50

...does anyone see a theme?

steveystuds06 · Unread post by **steveystuds06** » 8 years ago

It's very simple we need top 50 wins. According to the rpi forecast (I know is just projections) at the end of season Dayton, Gw, St Joes are projected to be in the top 50. Dayton is the only one that could be a top 25 win.

Add Richmond, Davidson, VCU, and possibly Bonnies as top 100 wins and that's it in the top 100.

With our schedule that's 9 games left that gives us a shot for top 100 wins and 5 with top 50.

We have a chance to beat a solid top 100 team tonight which is a step in the right direction. Take one game at a time and keep winning!

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:
Blue Man wrote:Anyone who thinks we will enter the at large conversation by having any less than 16 wins in the 7th best conference in the country doesn't know what they're talking about, doesn't pay attention to basketball outside of Kingston, is just being blindly optimistic, or is flat out lying to themselves.

Currently 0-3 vs the top 50, 2 home losses, 2 losses outside of the top 150, 1 currently out of the top 200.

There's nothing wrong with us needing to win in Brooklyn to get in. It's OK to understand that reality. We lost our leading scorer 9 minutes into the season. We're a worse team than last year. 23-8 lacking a true marquee win doesn't get you there nowadays. 23-8 if PC was one of those wins would get us there, but we didn't get that win.

Understanding the reality of needing to get top 4 so we can be guaranteed a bye in Brooklyn is probably the ceiling and a miracle for this group as it is, doesn't make you any less of a fan, it means you watch more basketball than what happens in the Ryan Center. It sets the expectations so that you can root for this team to make something crazy happen, rather than blow up when we don't get an invite.
Anyone who thinks we will enter the at large conversation by having any less than 16 wins in the 7th best conference in the country doesn't know what they're talking about, doesn't pay attention to basketball outside of Kingston, is just being blindly optimistic, or is flat out lying to themselves

Blue Man,

Are you saying anything worse than 16-2 will not even enter conversation for an NCAA Bid? Are you including only the A10 Season or does 16 wins also include wins in the A10 Tournament?
So 15-3, 14-4 and 13-5 in regular season have no chance even for conversation?

I think 13-5 in conference, with a bye and 2 wins in A10 tourney will do the trick. 15-3..one win and in! GO RHODY.
In SC today and sooo happy/surprised to see ESPNU on my hotel TV guide!

Ram1019 · Unread post by **Ram1019** » 8 years ago

My idea of a 'bad' loss is a losing to a team with a 223 RPI (Nebraska)-whether its home or away. That should be a win in the selection committee's eyes. Now if Nebraska was a top 100 RPI and we got that road loss I'd certainly not call that a bad loss. If we won it would've actually looked good to the committee simply because it was on the road. They like road wins. But not to above 200 RPI teams.

If you aren't looking at that Nebraska game in terms of a NCAA resume builder, then sure, they were favored and we lost so its not a 'bad' loss.

A win tonight would give us our first top 100 RPI win. Lets get it.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Agree with what you are saying but it is also quite simple to outrun or outperform your own League. At the end of the day Barren would often get beat out by his own A10 teams - usually losing key games down the stretch
Be in Top 3 in Conference Record and win at least one game in A10 Tournament

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 8 years ago

Ram1019 wrote:My idea of a 'bad' loss is a losing to a team with a 223 RPI (Nebraska)-whether its home or away. That should be a win in the selection committee's eyes. Now if Nebraska was a top 100 RPI and we got that road loss I'd certainly not call that a bad loss. If we won it would've actually looked good to the committee simply because it was on the road. They like road wins. But not to above 200 RPI teams.

If you aren't looking at that Nebraska game in terms of a NCAA resume builder, then sure, they were favored and we lost so its not a 'bad' loss.

You kind of need to project in the boost to Nebraska's RPI that they're going to get - unfair or not - from their conference schedule though. By the end of conference play, RPI Forecast has them in the 170ish range. Still not great, but it's about average, and then you add in that URI was on the road against a major conference team. If Nebraska tanks in conference play, then yeah, it'll be viewed as a bad loss. But if they muddle through, I doubt it's weighed heavily.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

I think the games with ODU and Nebraska were missed opportunities as all do, but from an A10 Bid perspective tonight's game with Richmond is hugely important.
Why:
- Nebraska is 223 RPI, 8-7 record. Again this year has not performed to expectations
- ODU is 180 RPI, 8-6 record. Has not performed to expectations

Richmond
- 80 RPI, 8-5 record
- Likely one of several teams that we will have to beat out for an A10 Bid
- We only play Richmond only once - no home and home so this head to head game could end up being a tiebreaker when A10 Tournament seeds are given out and also important if we are in a close race for the 3rd or 4th final A10 selection. If we lose to Richmond at home that could be devastating come A10 tourney time or NCAA selection time
- St Joe is 31 RPI, 11-2 record. We play them next after Richmond on the road on Jan 10. Will be a very tough win as Bembry is great but Isaiah miles is playing even better than Bembry. Will be very tough to get a win there
- St Bonaventure is 71 RPI, 9-3 record. We play them in Olean after St Joe on Jan 13. Will be a very tough win
- Will be much, much better to go to St Joe and to St Bonaventure being 2-0 after a Richmond win tonight vs going 1-1
- We must win tonight. Sounds strange to say the 2nd of 18 A10 games is a must win but I think it is
- We are 4 point or 4.5 point favorites so tonight would definitely fall inthe category of a bad loss

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:I think the games with ODU and Nebraska were missed opportunities as all do, but from an A10 Bid perspective tonight's game with Richmond is hugely important.
Why:
- Nebraska is 223 RPI, 8-7 record. Again this year has not performed to expectations
- ODU is 180 RPI, 8-6 record. Has not performed to expectations

Richmond
- 80 RPI, 8-5 record
- Likely one of several teams that we will have to beat out for an A10 Bid
- We only play Richmond only once - no home and home so this head to head game could end up being a tiebreaker when A10 Tournament seeds are given out and also important if we are in a close race for the 3rd or 4th final A10 selection. If we lose to Richmond at home that could be devastating come A10 tourney time or NCAA selection time
- St Joe is 31 RPI, 11-2 record. We play them next after Richmond on the road on Jan 10. Will be a very tough win as Bembry is great but Isaiah miles is playing even better than Bembry. Will be very tough to get a win there
- St Bonaventure is 71 RPI, 9-3 record. We play them in Olean after St Joe on Jan 13. Will be a very tough win
- Will be much, much better to go to St Joe and to St Bonaventure being 2-0 after a Richmond win tonight vs going 1-1
- We must win tonight. Sounds strange to say the 2nd of 18 A10 games is a must win but I think it is
- We are 4 point or 4.5 point favorites so tonight would definitely fall inthe category of a bad loss

I think all of the conference games are 'must wins', and am predicting right now that they will win them all until they lose one.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

Beating Richmond tonight will be no easy feat without Hassan, or a hobbled Hassan.

But it's in the "doable" category.

Unless we find out otherwise.

A lot of speculation over nothing, if we lose.

ramster is right, this is as close to a must win as you can get this early......beating St. Joes next will be very tough as you have to beat them AND the refs there, no easy feat.....

if we keep improving, then there is promise left in this season.

jmck · Unread post by **jmck** » 8 years ago

15 A10 wins or more and at large is a lock
14-4 and one win in Brooklyn and we are in
13-5 and 2 wins in Brooklyn with a loss in the finals and we are in
12 wins or less and need to win it all in Brooklyn

Running Ram · Unread post by **Running Ram** » 8 years ago

Ramster and Dre, we have a difference of opinion as to the defining terms of 'bad loss' and that's fine, what isn't fine is that our opinions don't matter in the least. You know who's opinions do matter? folks on the selection committee and I'll bet they see the Nebraska and Old Dominion losses as evidence to contraindicate our deserving an at-large bid.

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 8 years ago

Running Ram wrote:Ramster and Dre, we have a difference of opinion as to the defining terms of 'bad loss' and that's fine, what isn't fine is that our opinions don't matter in the least. You know who's opinions do matter? folks on the selection committee and I'll bet they see the Nebraska and Old Dominion losses as evidence to contraindicate our deserving an at-large bid.

Not to get too deep into the argument of what constitutes a "bad loss," but I don't think the ODU loss will end up being as "bad" as it appears now. They are likely a top 2 team in (an admittedly watered-down) Conference USA, with losses to Purdue, St. Joe's, VCU, William and Mary (not a terrible team in their own right), Georgia St (their one ugly blemish, Ga St is not the same without RJ Hunter), and Richmond. They're kinda similar to us - under-achieved in OOC play with a chance to make up for it come conference season, and they have a much easier road to redemption than do we given their conference. Though, by the same token, they far fewer opportunities for "good wins."

Joe · Unread post by **Joe** » 8 years ago

Keep in mind that the selection sunday committee members are humans, not pure stat robots. If URI lands on the bubble, the committee will see a team that lost their #1 player in their first game, and then had an average out of conference play with numerous tough, close losses. If URI gets a solid resume of good wins during conference play vs teams like GW, Richmond, St Joes, Dayton, Davidson, VCU, and manages to keep the bad losses to a minimum, and ends the season on a hot note (whether its a win streak, or getting through a couple rounds of the A10 tournament) I still think we could be looking at an at large bid if we don't win the A10 tourney. Hard to predict how many of those teams I listed we'll need to beat.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

If we don't finish in the Top 3 in the Conference the chances are very very small.
Have to finish at least Top 3 of the 14 Team A10.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 8 years ago

Didn't we finish in a tie for second last year?

Joe · Unread post by **Joe** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:If we don't finish in the Top 3 in the Conference the chances are very very small.
Have to finish at least Top 3 of the 14 Team A10.

Agreed. And do damage in the tournament. Hot teams on a winning streak are looked at as significantly better.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

theblueram wrote:Didn't we finish in a tie for second last year?

No. We lost to Dayton by 16 at Dayton - the only time we played them. So the tie breaker went to Dayton and they got the #2 seed in the A10 tournament. That is why a home game against Richmond is so critical to win - could be a tie breaker later on for seeding or for NCAA tournament selection. I would not rule out NCAA for Richmond.

What screwed URI in the A10 was 5th seed VCU beat 1st seed Davidson in the semifinals to go to championships. No chance once 5th seed VCU did that.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:
theblueram wrote:Didn't we finish in a tie for second last year?
No. We lost to Dayton by 16 at Dayton - the only time we played them. So the tie breaker went to Dayton and they got the #2 seed in the A10 tournament. That is why a home game against Richmond is so critical to win - could be a tie breaker later on for seeding or for NCAA tournament selection. I would not rule out NCAA for Richmond.

What screwed URI in the A10 was 5th seed VCU beat 1st seed Davidson in the semifinals to go to championships. No chance once 5th seed VCU did that.

So, we finished top 3. For seeding only. We finished the regular season tied for second.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

theblueram wrote:
ramster wrote:
theblueram wrote:Didn't we finish in a tie for second last year?
No. We lost to Dayton by 16 at Dayton - the only time we played them. So the tie breaker went to Dayton and they got the #2 seed in the A10 tournament. That is why a home game against Richmond is so critical to win - could be a tie breaker later on for seeding or for NCAA tournament selection. I would not rule out NCAA for Richmond.

What screwed URI in the A10 was 5th seed VCU beat 1st seed Davidson in the semifinals to go to championships. No chance once 5th seed VCU did that.
So, we finished top 3. For seeding only. We finished the regular season tied for second.

I suppose you could say for seeding we got 3rd having lost our one head to head match up with Dayton. Head to head match ups are crucial when you don't do a home and home with the A10 opponent.
Finishing Top 3 gives a good chance for an NCAA but certainly not automatic. Anything worse than top 3 finish makes things much more difficult and less likely.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 8 years ago

There was no consideration last year. Probably none if we beat Dayton and went to the finals. Can't just beat the cupcakes and lose to the teams that matter. It doesn't matter if your 25-5.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

That's right. Last year we beat GW but they fell apart late, and we beat Richmond on the road which was nice, but it was more than offset by their 2 wins against VCU, who we lost to.

With our OOC record, with no really good wins, we don't have hardly any margin for error in conference.

I just can't see us beating most of the top teams, especially on the road later in the season.

If we somehow win our next 2 games, then I might revisit that opinion. Only if.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

theblueram wrote:There was no consideration last year. Probably none if we beat Dayton and went to the finals. Can't just beat the cupcakes and lose to the teams that matter. It doesn't matter if your 25-5.

Losing to Dayton 56-52 hurt especially having lost to Dayton earlier in A10 play at Dayton by a wide margin.
We also lost the only head to head game with VCU.
So 2 losses to Dayton. 1 loss to VCU and Davidson won the league so That did URI in.
I'm not saying OOC is not important but I think some underestimate that criticality of the Conference games. Tonight's game is more important to URI than the ODU or Nebraska games imho.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:
theblueram wrote:There was no consideration last year. Probably none if we beat Dayton and went to the finals. Can't just beat the cupcakes and lose to the teams that matter. It doesn't matter if your 25-5.
Losing to Dayton 56-52 hurt especially having lost to Dayton earlier in A10 play at Dayton by a wide margin.
We also lost the only head to head game with VCU.
So 2 losses to Dayton. 1 loss to VCU and Davidson won the league so That did URI in.
I'm not saying OOC is not important but I think some underestimate that criticality of the Conference games. Tonight's game is more important to URI than the ODU or Nebraska games imho.

Totally agree...get on a win streak in conf play and anything can happen

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