2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary

[Obadiah]

CORRECTION

In a previous post I stated: "Only five contestants remain in the game and on the next Rhody loss, four will be eliminated and ramfan85 will be declared the winner. This is likely to happen before the season is complete - a first for this contest. Incredible!"

I came to that conclusion based on a fit of overall record and conference record as shown in the analysis posted earlier by ramsman75. What I and he neglected to consider was the fit criterion does not matter, when there is a gap in the prediction clusters. For example, no one predicted a 18-13, 10-8 record, so between 19-12 and 17-14 there is a gap and if 18-13 becomes the actual record then the winner is determined by the closest to the actual record using the bet components to break ties. Previously two posters - URI_IEP and bressler3south were eliminated because in the 19-12 cluster their 10-8 conference did not fit, but given the existence of the gap their 10-8 conference prediction is on the mark so they beat the 19-12 group who predicted 11-7. Therefore bressler3south and URI_IEP predictions are restored and they still remain in the contest.

In the event that 18-13 becomes the actual record and since ramfan at 17-14 also predicted a conference record of 10-8, we have a three way tie which is broken by the team scoring component which currently favors URI_IEP.

Here is what I should have stated after the VCU loss. Seven contestants remain in the game and with the next URI loss, three contestants will remain standing - URI_IEP, bressler3south, and ramfan85.

I know this sounds as clear as mud, but the gap near the bottom of all predictions complicates matters. For more clarity I will next summarize all the record options left and the likely winners in each option. That analysis will show that ramfan85 still has the edge.

[Obadiah]

With four games remaining on the schedule, here is a summary of all the potential combination of wins and losses over the last four games and the likely contest winner associated with each alternative.

Code: Select all

Potential Outcome   Overall Record	A-10 Record	Likely Contest Winner

    Wins all 4	        19-12	       11-7	     BFC or Rhody15 determined by team scoring tiebreaker.
    Wins 3 of 4	       18-13	       10-8	     URI_IEP or bressler3south determined by team scoring tiebreaker.
    Wins 2 of 4	       17-14	        9-9	     ramfan85
    Wins 1 of 4	       16-15	       8-10	     ramfan85
    Wins 0 of 4	       15-16	       7-11	     ramfan85
			

[ATPTourFan]

Aaaah. Now I understand.

[Obadiah]

Results after Game # 28 Davidson

Code: Select all

                           2015-16 Season	       2014-15 Season

Team Scoring, ppg	            69.8                    67.5

Top Scorers, ppg	         Terrell, 13.9            Matthews, 16.6
                            Garrett, 13.3            Martin, 11.9
                            Martin, 12.0             Terrell, 9.2
                   
                            
After Sixteen Home Games                        	
Home Attendance        
             Total              75,085                  83,821
             Average             4,693                   5,588

After Twenty Eight Games
Season Record	                15-13                   20-8

[Obadiah]

Only three left standing in the contest: URI_IEP, bressler3south, and ramfan85. Only a URI sweep of its final three games can prevent ramfan85 from winning this contest!!

[Obadiah]

Results after Game # 29 Dayton

Code: Select all

                           2015-16 Season	       2014-15 Season

Team Scoring, ppg	            70.0                    67.5

Top Scorers, ppg	         Terrell, 14.0            Matthews, 16.6
                            Garrett, 13.2            Martin, 11.9
                            Martin, 12.0             Terrell, 9.2
                   
                            
After Sixteen Home Games                        	
Home Attendance        
             Total              75,085                  83,821
             Average             4,693                   5,588

After Twenty Nine Games
Season Record	                 16-13                  21-8

[Obadiah]

It comes down to two: URI_IEP and ramfan85. If URI sweeps its last two, it's URI_IEP, just one loss gives it to ramfan85.

[ramfan85]

I don't want to win this.

[URI_IEP]

I thought I was out already

[URI_IEP]

[Obadiah]

Results after Game # 30 UMass

Code: Select all

                           2015-16 Season	       2014-15 Season*

Team Scoring, ppg	            69.9                    67.5

Top Scorers, ppg	         Terrell, 14.0            Matthews, 16.6
                            Garrett, 12.9            Martin, 11.9
                            Martin, 12.0             Terrell, 9.2
                   
                            
After Seventeen Home Games                        	
Home Attendance        
             Total              80,198                  83,821
             Average             4,718                   5,588

After Thirty Games
Season Record	                 17-13                   21-8

* Last season's schedule had only 29 regular season games and only 15 home games.

[Obadiah]

URI finishes the regular season at 17-14 and the winner of the 8th Annual Prediction Contest is .........ramfan85!!

Congratulations!

[ATPTourFan]

Yay! for ramfan85 (I suppose)

Huge thanks to Obadiah for again running (And FUNDING) this contest!

[ramster]

Congratulations Ramfan85.

[Obadiah]

Thanks, ATP. It is always a pleasure to do this.

[ramfan85]

Thanks, guys. Hope next year I can win with a prediction of 29-2.

[RhowdyRam02]

Thank you Obadiah for running the contests.

[ATPTourFan]

Yeah, this better be the last time where the lowest guesses for wins and attendance are awarded the spoils.

[Iggy1979]

Who won the top scorer guess or was that a tiebreaker?

[bressler3south]

Yeah, this better be the last time where the lowest guesses for wins and attendance are awarded the spoils.

Sounds sorta pessimistic-like, even though you're trying to be optimistic, ATP.....

[Obadiah]

Iggy, top scorer was a tiebreaker, but for the record:

Team Scoring for regular season was 69.6 and both 15 Year Lurker and Peter Ram Time had that exact prediction.

Top Scorer was Terrell at 13.6. Both Seawrightspostgame and rambone 78 were the closest with their prediction of Terrell at 13.8.

[rambone 78]

Obadiah, next season's contest will be wild, imo.

You will have those who think we will blow everybody out, and not even play very many close games.

That's on the top end.

And all the way on the bottom end, there will be some that think we will still struggle to win the close games, and maybe not even make the Dance.

Opinions will vary wildly, but most will likely be too optimistic. They usually are.

What I'd like to see, versus what I think we'll see, could be pretty different.

I know I'm going to err on the cautious side this time. I'll gladly be on the low side next season!

Have to prove it first, before I can predict big things for this program going forward.

[ramster]

Obadiah, next season's contest will be wild, imo.

You will have those who think we will blow everybody out, and not even play very many close games.

That's on the top end.

And all the way on the bottom end, there will be some that think we will still struggle to win the close games, and maybe not even make the Dance.

Opinions will vary wildly, but most will likely be too optimistic. They usually are.

What I'd like to see, versus what I think we'll see, could be pretty different.

I know I'm going to err on the cautious side this time. I'll gladly be on the low side next season!

Have to prove it first, before I can predict big things for this program going forward.

Sounds like with so many posters incapable of predicting intelligently that you should have a huge leg up on winning next year's contest.

[RhowdyRam02]

Yup, Rambone has to win the prediction contest next year, no excuses.

[ATPTourFan]

Yeah everyone here besides Rambone expects blowout wins in all the games. Yup yup

[Ramulous]

I will not participate in next year's contest.....

[NYGFan_Section208]

Yup, Rambone has to win the prediction contest next year, no excuses.

Yep. Most knowledgeable guy on the board should win easily ---> NO EXCUSES...

[rambone 78]

All done piling on now?

Really don't give a shit.

I said a lot of people will predict too many wins next year. In fact the guys pissing on my post will be the biggest culprits most likely.

Don't agree? Look at the history of the contest.

[twisted3829]

Almost time to start this up again right?

[Ramulous]

For superstition's sake I will not participate this year.....