Preseason Publications A10 Predictions

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Athlon Sports first publication out has URI picked 2nd in A10 with Dayton 1st
EC Mathews 1st Team and Player of the Year
Hassan Martin 2nd Team

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

That would be great news for him and the team.

URI would be NCAA tourney bound.

Of course, that also means EC would be NBA bound.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 8 years ago

I don't see how Bembry isn't POY this year - regardless how they finish he is going to put up filthy numbers. I would be happy with EC AND Hassan on first team.

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 8 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:That would be great news for him and the team.

URI would be NCAA tourney bound.

Of course, that also means EC would be NBA bound.

I think pretty much everyone would take that tradeoff. I can also envision scenarios though in which URI is a tournament team and EC still isn't a sure-fire NBA candidate. (Something like Mathews stagnating, but Terrell and Garrett improving so much that it doesn't matter and they're still a tourney team.) It's not the likeliest scenario to me, but still, it could happen.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

True. I do expect EC to be better than last year though, what with all the injuries.

Since URI projects to be a much more balanced team than St. Joes, I do think it will be hard for EC to be POY. If URI wins the conference, than maybe?

Bembry won't have much help. He'll be like Dunn, win games by himself, but not enough for them to go anywhere.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 8 years ago

Bembry is awesome.

Focusing on our team, it's everything that older guys have moved on from other teams. Our guys won't be playing up for the first time. Hassan isn't even 20! Hassan being exceptionally young but EC is also right there with how young he is.

Like Dayton can't trot out Sibert. They still have Pierre and Scoochie Smith is in the same place as EC/HASS, but our guys are going to be advantaged now for the first time. Big big year.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 8 years ago

I just have a feeling about EC this year. I think he is going to dominate. Can't wait.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 8 years ago

Yeah EC should be able to handle The pressure of being 'the guy' a lot better this year. He was injured for half the year. Who knows how much better he could've been had he not had planar fasciitis holding him back the second half of the year.
With better ball handling and decision making he'll be dynamite. Better than Bembry I think.
I'm really excited for everyone! See how much better they all are!

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

Hassan wasn't 100% the last part of last year either.

EC had foot AND finger issues.

Garrett had foot issues.

Buchanan and Biruta were also less than 100% much of the year. Yeah, they're gone, but that's a lot of banged up guys for one team.

Did I miss anything else? Just think if everybody can stay healthy this season. Of course, with Dan's practices, that might be easier said than done......

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 8 years ago

By the end of the season, there aren't too many players on any team who aren't banged up.

860_rhody · Unread post by **860_rhody** » 8 years ago

I definitely think EC will win POY. Seems like the best player from the best team usually wins these kinds of awards. He's healthy and he seems to be bigger than he was last year.

Rhody72 · Unread post by **Rhody72** » 8 years ago

IMO, I only see incremental improvement for EC and that will come from fewer errors in forcing his offense. If EC tries to dominate this season it will not be good for the team. There is too much talent this year for EC to pile up gaudy statistics. Also, HM is more likely to be 1st team A10 than EC is to be A10 POY. The more balance we have offensively, the farther this team will go. Good defense is a given.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

I think EC should be much improved from last year just based on being healthy, putting aside any improvements he's made to his game in the offseason. It may not manifest in a big jump in points per game, but his efficiency and overall effectiveness in all areas should tick up (which should make him a top 2-3 player in the league and really help the team take the next step).

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 8 years ago

Agree with both of the last two posts, I'd rather see an efficient 14 Ppg, more assists, less turnovers from EC. Needs to show better court awareness, decisiveness and playmaking vs just scoring. As 72 alludes to, we have plenty of talent around him. In an ideal world we have 5 guys averaging b/w 10-14 ppg

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 8 years ago

14 ppg? that is delusional. The dynamic of the people leaving college basketball and EC actually coming into the position of advantage along with good health. Forget about it.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

Aside from Blue Ribbon, the quality and accuracy of some of these publications can vary greatly, but I thought this was a solid write-up. It touched on the solid rebuilding effort, highlighted Martin and Matthews as equally important members of the team, and praised the young backcourt.

Athlon also gets extra marks for being the first one released. I freaking love college basketball, and if there is something out there to be read on it, I'm there. You want to tell me who the prediction for preseason player of the year in the Summit League is? Great, I'm there for that. It's Obi Emegano, by the way.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 8 years ago

Delusional? Not sure about that, gaudy numbers are generally put up on bad or imbalanced teams. We have 5 guys who can score this year, I don't expect a huge improvement in ECs ppg. I hope ECs improvements to come in all other facets.

Dre3000 · Unread post by **Dre3000** » 8 years ago

I agree with BigAppleRam, EC avg 16.9 last season, dropping that to 14.5ppg while improving shooting percentages would be viewed as a much better season. We're really only talking one less bucket a game. Considering we now have more capable scorers around him I think that is conceivable, if not likely.

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 8 years ago

I'd love to see 5 guys average between 10 and 15 per game. And then 3 or 4 guys off the bench getting anywhere from 5-7 a game.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 8 years ago

When I saw this, I thought "oops I called somebody delusional, not good." But it is.

Go down the roster and honestly think about each player. They all have various talents but are special at 1-2 things. EC is special at scoring. That's what he does. Other players may be able to score but he has shown he can be the #1 guy on a top tier A10 team. You want him to score less? You should want 19ppg out of him this year. He's entering his junior year?! He should dominate.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

The comments about efficiency are spot on. Growth in EC's game will be reflected there. As for a specific number for ppg, I think that will be influenced, for everyone, by how the offense runs. EC is their best scorer. If his efficiency improves and there are more offensive possessions/attempted shots per game, that might be where you see his points go up. The closest I've seen a Hurley college team run an offense the way that he really likes to was the 11-12 Wagner team, which averaged 73/game.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 8 years ago

So Ace, given that last sentence of your post, do you expect this year's team to finally be at a point where they can run that type of offense here as well?

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 8 years ago

We can agree to disagree, there were prob 3-4 NCAA Tourney teams last year with someone averaging 19ppg or more. EC forced and took a lot of shots last year, sometimes out of necessity sometimes as poor decision making. I assure you he will shoot less this year and distribute more, if he gets more points on less attempts I am fine with that. But we will have 5 guys who can score double figures on any given night.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

adam914 wrote:So Ace, given that last sentence of your post, do you expect this year's team to finally be at a point where they can run that type of offense here as well?

That does seem to be the plan. That team had a 6'11" center that was disruptive- not a ton of offense but blocked shots and altered shots, which led to some quick, easy points. Martin's a different- and better- player but certainly still very much a defensive presence. That Wagner team was also notable for having 10 players average double digit minutes, which helped the quickness and intensity on both ends, and very good free throw shooting. Hurley's said they'll go 8-10 deep his season, depending on the development of the new guys.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

That depth should make a huge difference this season, as long as the newcomers prove they can contribute.

Last season, we went 7 deep, and a lot of times, it was more like 5, what with guys being hobbled and inconsistent play and all.

That huge dropoff killed us in several games, especially when starters got in foul trouble, which happened too many times.

Also late in the season, the guys were worn down from that lack of quality depth. It really showed in the second half of games, with the excessive fouling and poor shooting. That included FT's too.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

Dayton is at 25 in Blue Ribbon's pre-season Top 25. More importantly, the digital version of Blue Ribbon will be released next week.

http://chrisdortch.info/kentucky-again- ... on-top-25/

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

Another second place prediction from Blue Ribbon. Backcourt and Intangibles: A, Frontcourt: B+, Bench/Depth: B
Seems fair.

Sporting News has them 3rd. They also named the top three coaches in the conference as Bob McKillop, Archie Miller, and Chris Mooney. The first two, definitely. I guess Mooney slides in there with 2 semi-recent tournament appearances.

BTW- Blue Ribbon digital download is now available

http://blueribbonyearbookonline.com/ind ... duct_id=95

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

A lot of familiar names listed here. And before anyone gets too worked up, they've always used a very broad definition of mid-major.

http://www.midmajormadness.com/rankings ... ce=twitter

Shaolin Swat · Unread post by **Shaolin Swat** » 8 years ago

Don't really have an issue with these rankings, they seem pretty fair. Hopefully, we are at the top of the list the entire season.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

I think the "issue" is whether or not the BE is high or mid major.

I and most others are in the mid major camp for them. Doesn't really matter though.

We would be ranked higher than most of the BE, if they were included in those rankings anyway.

Joe · Unread post by **Joe** » 8 years ago

It's a win-win situation. If Matthews does great in the postseason, then URI (obviously) does great and that's what we're all hoping for. He would also probably declare for the draft which is good for EC and basically everyone. If he doesn't do great during the final stretch, then he will most likely come back for senior year with something to prove, and then we would have a seriously amazing team.

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 8 years ago

I hope we lose EC and Kuran Iverson to the pros this year......Hurley should keep recruiting !!

CT Rhody · Unread post by **CT Rhody** » 8 years ago

Can we not post those mid-major rankings on here. Of course a HM program and conf should be at the top of such a list. Next...

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

CT Rhody wrote:Can we not post those mid-major rankings on here. Of course a HM program and conf should be at the top of such a list. Next...

Or, how about everyone posts whatever he or she wants and you can choose what to read, or not? My point in posting that is, besides the A10 teams on the list, Valpo, Iona, and Old Dominion are also noted.

That site is very clear about who, and why, they consider a "mid-major" and how every team in a conference is certainly not equal. I'm willing to support a site that makes an effort to provide coverage of teams and conferences that can be overlooked nationally, and they already have a lot of content on the A10 this preseason.

CT Rhody · Unread post by **CT Rhody** » 8 years ago

ace wrote:
CT Rhody wrote:Can we not post those mid-major rankings on here. Of course a HM program and conf should be at the top of such a list. Next...
Or, how about everyone posts whatever he or she wants and you can choose what to read, or not? My point in posting that is, besides the A10 teams on the list, Valpo, Iona, and Old Dominion are also noted.

That site is very clear about who, and why, they consider a "mid-major" and how every team in a conference is certainly not equal. I'm willing to support a site that makes an effort to provide coverage of teams and conferences that can be overlooked nationally, and they already have a lot of content on the A10 this preseason.

Ace - It doesn't bother you that a conference that had 5 and then 6 and then 3 with another 3 just missing out on the big dance last year being considered a mid-major annoying? I think until we're able to change perception that we can compete year end and year out with the BCS conferences in basketball, we won't achieve the level of success that we all desire.

I do think the point about the other teams we are playing was interesting, that's what I choose to focus on while reading that article.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

No, it does not bother me. It's a website. They have a clearly stated mission to fill in the gap and cover teams that often do not get the appropriate attention. I don't care what they call it.

Winning changes the perception. Dayton gets respect nationally. VCU gets respect nationally. Be like them, and little else matters.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

It's pretty simple really.

Start winning big, and as long as DH is here we will have excellent talent.

The cycle will continue hopefully after Dan leaves. EC of course is a big talent, but I can see even better talent here once he's gone.....

That's a topic for another day, which I hope is quite a while down the road......

For a while I was concerned that we might have a dropoff after EC and Hassan graduated....not any more.....

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 8 years ago

I dont care what people call URI basketball. Its my favorite team in any sport.

I dont consider the Big East high major.

The reasons for the big east being a big deal all play in the ACC.

"Tonight! Featuring Creighton vs Depaul!"- give me a break

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

KenPom ratings are out. Rhode Island is ranked 50th overall, 2nd in the A10 behind Davidson and projected to go 12-6 in conference play.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 8 years ago

Interesting how just Davidson and Rhody are in the top 50 (VCU is 53). Clearly, everyone expects at least 3 NCAA teams which means these are nowhere close to where the league will finish the season.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 8 years ago

ace wrote:KenPom ratings are out. Rhode Island is ranked 50th overall, 2nd in the A10 behind Davidson and projected to go 12-6 in conference play.

If the KenPom rankings proved to be correct, the A-10 very well could have just one NCAA participant, the winner of the A-10 Tourney and automatic bid.

http://kenpom.com/index.php?y=2016

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

I don't know how a system that claims to be data-based could release a preseason ranking in the first place. I generally have respect for KenPom's rankings, but the only way I'd find this preseason ranking useful is if I ran out of toilet paper. It just doesn't make any sense to have an analysis done on the basis of data before there is ANY data for the current season available.

I think preseason polls are bogus in general and shouldn't even exist, and that is even more true with a ranking system that purports to be based on "advanced analysis."

GFY, Ken Pom.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 8 years ago

College Basketball is so unpredictable...... Especially with the field almost being 70 teams. How do you predict 70 teams from all over the country of guys around the age of 20?

reckless jake · Unread post by **reckless jake** » 8 years ago

+1 ^^^^^

That's always been my complaint with these suppossed data based rankings, either KenPom or Sagarin, the initial base line starting point is purely anecdotal opinion. There is no data yet. They should wait maybe 5 or 7 games into the season before releasing the initial ratings.

Shaolin Swat · Unread post by **Shaolin Swat** » 8 years ago

Generally speaking, I put more stock into the KenPom rankings during the season than other statistical rankings. However, I don't really put any stock into this either as it doesn't have any statistical data from this season to base the rankings off of. At this point, the KenPom rankings as much validity to me as any of the preseason polls (which isn't much). Once the season starts and there is actual data to analyze, I'll put more stock into what the rankings say.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 8 years ago

"WE PLAY TO WIN THE GAME", so forget the rankings. Lets see it on the hardwood!

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

Or, we could all just take a deep breath and realize that Ken himself says about a month's worth of data is needed until his information is meaningful. He chooses to release his starting point, even knowing that it may be misunderstood, probably just because everyone else does. Plus, it helps to track how accurate these starting points are with how things develop, which strengthens his process.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 8 years ago

Or.. "People who dry hump stats to make a point probably prefer reading sheet music to hearing the song." Aqib Talib -- From Tom Curran's twitter

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 8 years ago

Seawrightspostgame wrote:Or.. "People who dry hump stats to make a point probably prefer reading sheet music to hearing the song." Aqib Talib -- From Tom Curran's twitter

Wrong. At this point, I tend to think anyone who doesn't find value in advanced stats probably also thinks the Earth is flat.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

ace wrote:Or, we could all just take a deep breath and realize that Ken himself says about a month's worth of data is needed until his information is meaningful. He chooses to release his starting point, even knowing that it may be misunderstood, probably just because everyone else does. Plus, it helps to track how accurate these starting points are with how things develop, which strengthens his process.

Like I said, I like Ken Pom's stuff. But if he himself acknowledges you need a month's worth of data to draw even remotely meaningful conclusions about who is worth a shit and who isn't, then why the hell is he releasing preseason rankings? It is absurd on its face, considering his rankings don't attempt to do any subjective qualitative analysis and are dependent upon metrics that do not exist to any degree for the upcoming season.

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