Red Sox and other Major League Baseball

NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, BPL... you get it
User avatar
SGreenwell
Sly Williams
Posts: 4370
Joined: 11 years ago
Location: Houston, TX (via Charlestown, RI)
x 2968
Contact:

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by SGreenwell »

NYG, I'd argue that the Cubs are a good example of what happens when you staunchly refuse to trade anyone. Their Major League roster is loaded, and despite all the promotions, their minor league system still has a scary amount of guys in it. Frustratingly too, we had their GM for a while before he left in a power struggle with ownership / Lucchino.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

Dunno...it's not like he Cubs never traded anyone...and it was time for Theo to go. Am glad he was here, but his ego was just as huge as ownership/(not just Lucchino) and it wasn't going to work long-term.

I think those that get paid to do so have to make decisions on when to fold 'em and when to hold 'em and "always" doing one or the other isn't going to be an effective long term strategy.

Cubs are doing well now - but, to look at them as any kind of "model"? Can't do it - need to win a playoff series or two at least. I'm willing to have the GM take chances and miss one every now and then with an occasional title, over going 100+ years between trophies... and, i think this addition gets the Sox closer in the next three years than holding Espinoza..
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Didn't the Cubs beat the Cardinals last year in a playoff series? Cubs are filthy and young across the board. One of their best prospects, Schwarber, hasn't even really played this season after a knee injury. He averaged 1 HR every 14.5 AB's last year at age 22. That's nearly a 40 HR pace over the course of a full year.

The only problem you could say with the modern day Cubs is that they have really failed to fill out their rotation with high-ceiling guys. Outside of Arrieta and Lester, their rotation is Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, Jason Hammel. Those guys have all had very good seasons, but not exactly guys you fear in a playoff series. Of their top pitching prospects, Underwood has nearly a 5 ERA in AA, Edwards Jr. has been converted into a reliever, De La Cruz doesn't even show up on the radar, and Pierce Johnson has nearly an 8.00 ERA in AAA in 10 starts.

In the playoffs, more often then not, good pitching beats good hitting. Cubs can win it all, but can't afford Arrieta and Lester to have postseasons like they did last year -- Arrieta was unbelievable in the play-in game but went 10.2 innings, 8 ER against the Cards and Mets & Lester went 14 innings, 7 ER agaisnt the same opponents. Comes out to an average of 6 innings, ~ 4 ER. Not good enough from 2 of the top pitchers in baseball.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

Cubs do look good this year...but just saying, teams rise and fall...really hard to consider anyone 'the model' over the long haul... Hello, Atlanta?
0 x
User avatar
SGreenwell
Sly Williams
Posts: 4370
Joined: 11 years ago
Location: Houston, TX (via Charlestown, RI)
x 2968
Contact:

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by SGreenwell »

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:Cubs do look good this year...but just saying, teams rise and fall...really hard to consider anyone 'the model' over the long haul... Hello, Atlanta?
I mean, I'm of the Billy Beane thought process that the postseason is largely a crapshoot. Certain teams (power hitting, power pitching) usually do better, but otherwise, you kind find plenty of examples that pretty much go against every "adage" about success in the postseason. Once you get to the postseason, you have to win 11 games against teams with .500+ records. Even if you have the better players in the World Series, it probably means you're 60-40 or 65-35 to win that series, at best.
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

The thing about young kids is if they become servicable they are under efficient cost-control for 6-7 years.
Often have the higher ceiling as well.
Think the best model is always have the influx of talent from the minors and throw money around where you need to.
If you were moving top kids for a legit top-end starter, I don't think anyone would even bat an eye.
But you moveda top pitching prospect for a guy who his whole career has been basically a 5th starter/long reliever until this season.
It's so rare that a guy comes out of no where and becomes a competent top-end talent.
And often these guys that flash strong 1st halves wear down and suck when it matters.
Michael Wacha was an AS last year but in September he gave up 21 ER in 20 innings, and then another 4 ER in 4.1 postseason innings.
Jeff Locke was a freakin AS in 2013 and he's gotten substantially worse every season since (he's only 28).
There's a chance Espinosa is nothing and this kid helps you this year, but just doesn't seem like a strong long-term play.
It's not like they traded for a guy who has a proven track record, in which I'd be all for the deal.
0 x
ramster
Frank Keaney
Posts: 23804
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8856

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by ramster »

I wonder where the Red Sox saw Espinosa after his mediocre performance ar Greenville this year? You would think Espinosa would have performed better than he did with all the preseason ranking stuff.

Sure we could have held on to him but the chances of winning the division would not at all have been helped by Espinosa, obviously.

Pomeranz was going to be traded by San Diego, just a matter of to which team and the bidding was bound to go up as the trading deadline got closer. I like DD's philosophy of moving quickly.

The real cause of DD needing to go after a 4th starter is nobody stepped up. The guys who could have grabbed the 4th position did not do it - DD had to make a move.

Pomeranz has added a good curve ball that he amazingly throws in the 80's and he Moët recently added an effective cutter. When he started in the bigs he was mostly fastballs. There are reasons behind his improved performance - not just luck.
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

ramster wrote:
Pomeranz has added a good curve ball that he amazingly throws in the 80's and he Moët recently added an effective cutter. When he started in the bigs he was mostly fastballs. There are reasons behind his improved performance - not just luck.
I don't know, I feel like a lot of times with guys, they come back to earth.
Just look at Shelby Miller.
I followed him extensively last year after I traded for him in a keeper league.
The pub was all good, Atlanta got him, he improved his cutter, he improved his sinker, he was throwing them more, turning around his career.
First 8 starts, 54 innings, 8 ER. (1.33)
Next 8 starts, 48.1 innings, 17 ER. (3.18)
About this time, gets selected for All-Star game. (2.20 season to date)
Next 8 starts, 49.2 innings, 15 ER. (2.74)
Next 8 starts, 45 innings, 28 ER. (5.60)
Had 1 last start against the STL backups which was 8 IP, 0 ER.
Traded to Arizona... (Season ends with 3.02 ERA)
First 7 starts this year, 29.1 innings, 24 ER. (7.42)
Last 7 starts this year, 40 innings, 31 ER. (6.98)
Demoted to AAA. (Season to date ERA 7.14).
More often then not, guys flash and come back to reality.
I haven't watched a lot of Pomeranz but I did watch a lot of Shelby Miller last year, he went from a guy who looked like he had finally put it together to a guy who looks like a mess again all in the span of a year.
0 x
User avatar
SGreenwell
Sly Williams
Posts: 4370
Joined: 11 years ago
Location: Houston, TX (via Charlestown, RI)
x 2968
Contact:

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by SGreenwell »

ramster wrote:I wonder where the Red Sox saw Espinosa after his mediocre performance ar Greenville this year? You would think Espinosa would have performed better than he did with all the preseason ranking stuff.
He's 18 and striking out nearly a batter an inning in A+ ball. Most guys his age are finishing their senior year of HS. For a guy really into HS basketball stats and recruits, your outlook on baseball prospects seems to be the opposite. :) Obviously, he's far from the majors, so plenty can go wrong between injuries or not being able to develop stamina or good secondary pitches. But he's the type of high upside arm you really want to hold on to.
0 x
Billyboy78
Frank Keaney
Posts: 16274
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8570

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

They knew they were signing Groome the same day. He's as good a prospect as Espinosa, if not better.
0 x
User avatar
SGreenwell
Sly Williams
Posts: 4370
Joined: 11 years ago
Location: Houston, TX (via Charlestown, RI)
x 2968
Contact:

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by SGreenwell »

Billyboy78 wrote:They knew they were signing Groome the same day. He's as good a prospect as Espinosa, if not better.
You typically need five starting pitchers in the majors though.
0 x
Shaolin Swat
ARD
Posts: 502
Joined: 9 years ago
x 154

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by Shaolin Swat »

ramster wrote:The real cause of DD needing to go after a 4th starter is nobody stepped up. The guys who could have grabbed the 4th position did not do it - DD had to make a move.
This is part of my point. If you're relying on Pomeranz to be your #4 starter, then the top pitching prospect in your organization should be completely off-limits in trade talks. In my opinion, this team is more than a mid-rotation starter (which is what Pomeranz is probably at this point - he needs to show more consistency to be considered a top of the rotation starter) from being a championship contender. Again, this trade may ultimately wind up being a big win for the Red Sox, but in my opinion, it is way too much of a risk to trade your top pitching prospect for someone who hasn't yet consistently demonstrated the ability to be a high-quality Major League starter.
0 x
Billyboy78
Frank Keaney
Posts: 16274
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8570

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

SGreenwell wrote:
Billyboy78 wrote:They knew they were signing Groome the same day. He's as good a prospect as Espinosa, if not better.
You typically need five starting pitchers in the majors though.
How many pitchers have the Red Sox drafted in the last 10 years who have developed and come through the system and have been productive major leaguers? If they can have 2 home grown pitchers in their rotation, the others will be obtained via trade or FA. That's the advantage of being in a big market. If you're not good at developing pitchers, you just go buy some from the systems who do develop but can't afford to keep them.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

I think you've got to take some risks when you have a team that has a shot to win it all now. They have some depth there and can always afford to 'go get.' Have to remember, too, that those pulling the trigger have a much better feel for the talent than we do. I think putting cinnamon in the blueberry sour was a bigger risk....hopefully Percy works out better than that :lol:
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

What pitching depth? It's not like the Sox have all these great MLB-ready arms or have been injury hit. They have TWO guys!!!!
Since when does 2 equate to great depth? Kopech, Groome.
And even then, we'll see each of them in 3-5 years.
I'm not anti moving prospects, you just have to part with them for the right people.
And just using scoreboard, I know we compare Kopech and Espinosa, but Espinosa ranked 14th in Keith Law's recent prospect update, Kopech was 45th.
Much higher probability of Espinosa being top-end talent then Kopech.
People see Kopech throws over 100 mph and they start getting little Kopech's in their trousers.

Plus, you say they have a shot to win it now.
So do about 15 other teams in the MLB.
They have a chance, sure.
Maybe I'd feel differently if they were an NL team sitting 6-8 games up in the division just trying to solidify a strong finish.
But fangraphs loves the Sox, so I guess so should I.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

If the sox win a ws before espinoza becomes the next pedro...it will be totally worth it....
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I'll agree with that if and only if Pomeranz has a key role in that run.
Jake Peavy in 2013 went 12.2 innings in 3 starts (average 4 innings per start), gave up 10 runs (average 3 per start), struck out only 8 batters, and gave up 16 hits and 4 walks.
Although one outing did somewhat skew the data (Det - 3 innings, 5 hits, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K), neither of the other two outings counted as quality starts (TB - 5.2 innings, 5 H, 1 ER, 3K, 0 BB and STL - 4 innings, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K).
So did he really help you win a WS?
You aren't trading Espinosa to get a guy to give you any less than 6 solid innings.
Expectation minimum should be 6 innings 2 runs, 7 innings 3 runs -- something in that ballpark.

On the flip side, I would say John Lackey in 2013 validated his entire contract because he was balls in October.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

Pomeranz has already played a key role...the role of "not Clay Bucholz".... Mission Accomplished.
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Ok, you could get chimp from Roger Williams Zoo to play the role of "not clay Buchholz." That doesn't mean you give up your top pitching prospect for it. The Red Sox need help at catcher ... Let's trade Andrew Benitendi for all-star Stephen Vogt ... He's an upgrade ... Let's win today, there's depth at that position.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

Now, that's just being silly. Chimps aren't allowed on the roster, they leave too much hair in the hot tub and showers.

Help at catcher?? Whaaaat? S Leon is the new GOAT...didn't you see the sign at Yankee Stadium on Saturday? "Sandy hit .455 in the first half, the highest batting average ever by a ML hitter prior to the All-Star break (min 50 AB)" (I only know because I was there and texted a picture of it to my friend...and then he homered in his next at-bat.)

They have other good pitching prospects - Espinoza isn't the only one...and we're fortunate they can always go buy one or trade for one. That's where most of their best have come from anyway. No Espinoza (who is a ways away) is not the end of the world. In fact, am guessing no one will ever hear of the guy (except for grousing about or celebrating this trade) for two, probably 3 years at least....?

Edit: Peavy sucked in 2013, sucked worse in 2014 and still does (which means he'll prob be lights out tonight). Who did they give up for him?
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:
Edit: Peavy sucked in 2013, sucked worse in 2014 and still does (which means he'll prob be lights out tonight). Who did they give up for him?
Jose Iglesias - He missed all of 2014 with injury, but hit .300 last year and was an All-Star. This year hitting .259. Has hit .279 in 252 games with Detroit. He's now 26.

As for catcher, they are ok riding the Sandy wave now, but that wave will likely coming crashing down hard. Was a .186 hitter before this season. Basically 4th on the depth chart. Smallish sample size but just shows what people thought of him.
0 x
User avatar
SGreenwell
Sly Williams
Posts: 4370
Joined: 11 years ago
Location: Houston, TX (via Charlestown, RI)
x 2968
Contact:

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by SGreenwell »

To kind of refine my position here - I think there are four outcomes for this trade, kind of equally likely, and you can find examples of all four in past Sox trades, and trades in general.

1) Both sides win. Pomeranz pitches well for the Sox this year and in his remaining years of team control, and Espinoza is an average or better starter for the Padres. (Similar trade: The Sox got Beckett and Lowell from the Marlins, the Marlins got Hanley Ramirez.)

2) Sox win, because Espinoza isn't as good as projected, because of injury or some other reason. (Similar trade: Schilling for Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge de la Rosa and Mike Goss.)

3) Padres win, because Pomeranz turns into a pumpkin away from Petco Field, and Espinoza is average or better for years. (Similar trade: the always mentioned Bagwell trade.)

4) Both teams lose. (Similar trade: Ed Sprague for Dennis Tankersley.)
0 x
ramster
Frank Keaney
Posts: 23804
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8856

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by ramster »

SGreenwell wrote:
ramster wrote:I wonder where the Red Sox saw Espinosa after his mediocre performance ar Greenville this year? You would think Espinosa would have performed better than he did with all the preseason ranking stuff.
He's 18 and striking out nearly a batter an inning in A+ ball. Most guys his age are finishing their senior year of HS. For a guy really into HS basketball stats and recruits, your outlook on baseball prospects seems to be the opposite. :) Obviously, he's far from the majors, so plenty can go wrong between injuries or not being able to develop stamina or good secondary pitches. But he's the type of high upside arm you really want to hold on to.
SG,
Pomeranz IS striking out more than a batter an inning at the major league level and doing it now. 115 K's in 102 innings - strong stuff.

I don't care to lose a guy like Espinosa but this has not been a great year for him and he is only 6' tall. Potential? Sure. But you have to give up talent to get talent.
As with all trades the results remain to be seen but we only had 3 reliable starters and part of that is because Porcello and Wright have over performed. Price has underperformed.

We HAD to have another starter - so if not Espinosa it would have been someone else.

I like 2 young prospects in the minor system better than Espinosa.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

...and a basketball player in high school is much closer to a prominent stage that the masses care about, than a Low A minors baseball prospect (that isn't dominating his competition).

Actually, 3 "A" levels...Lowell (short season), Greenville, Salem...
0 x
Billyboy78
Frank Keaney
Posts: 16274
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8570

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by Billyboy78 »

Red Sox fans freaked out when they traded their top prospect named Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett (and Mike Lowell as a throw in). That worked out pretty well.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

Billyboy78 wrote:Red Sox fans freaked out when they traded their top prospect named Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett (and Mike Lowell as a throw in). That worked out pretty well.
Three cheers to that...that worked out *%$@# awesome! 8-) 8-) :P
0 x
User avatar
SGreenwell
Sly Williams
Posts: 4370
Joined: 11 years ago
Location: Houston, TX (via Charlestown, RI)
x 2968
Contact:

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by SGreenwell »

Billyboy78 wrote:Red Sox fans freaked out when they traded their top prospect named Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett (and Mike Lowell as a throw in). That worked out pretty well.
Sure, but I'd argue that Beckett was the elite sort of arm you do trade prospects for. (I might be mistaken, but I think Lowell was seen as more of a throw-in by the Marlins, given their aversion to veterans making any money, and because he had a down year before he was traded.) It worked out then, but it's not hard to find bad examples of the Sox trading prospects for vets.
0 x
ramster
Frank Keaney
Posts: 23804
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8856

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by ramster »

Or even worse signing guys
Sandoval the ultimate disaster
Then Rushney
Humongous contracts to guys not even playing
0 x
User avatar
Rhodymob05
Tyson Wheeler
Posts: 7382
Joined: 11 years ago
Location: Rhode Island
x 3952

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by Rhodymob05 »

ramster wrote:
SGreenwell wrote:
ramster wrote:I wonder where the Red Sox saw Espinosa after his mediocre performance ar Greenville this year? You would think Espinosa would have performed better than he did with all the preseason ranking stuff.
He's 18 and striking out nearly a batter an inning in A+ ball. Most guys his age are finishing their senior year of HS. For a guy really into HS basketball stats and recruits, your outlook on baseball prospects seems to be the opposite. :) Obviously, he's far from the majors, so plenty can go wrong between injuries or not being able to develop stamina or good secondary pitches. But he's the type of high upside arm you really want to hold on to.
SG,
Pomeranz IS striking out more than a batter an inning at the major league level and doing it now. 115 K's in 102 innings - strong stuff.

I don't care to lose a guy like Espinosa but this has not been a great year for him and he is only 6' tall. Potential? Sure. But you have to give up talent to get talent.
As with all trades the results remain to be seen but we only had 3 reliable starters and part of that is because Porcello and Wright have over performed. Price has underperformed.

We HAD to have another starter - so if not Espinosa it would have been someone else.

I like 2 young prospects in the minor system better than Espinosa.
Perfecty said, this season the sox have a playoff team, we need to stack the deck and pitching was where we were soft.
0 x
GO RAMS
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

ramster wrote:But you have to give up talent to get talent.
Why is Drew Pomeranz considered talent? I don't get it :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

He's had ONE good half season.
His career high for innings pitched between the majors and minors combined is 147 innings in 2012.
There is no proven track record to feel confident he can continue his awesome season through 200+ innings or the next two seasons.
If the argument is that he's not Clay Buchholz or he's better than what they had, both true.
But you don't trade a $50 bill for a $20 bill, even if the $20 is new and crisp and the $50 is old and worn.
But since you believe in that for baseball trades, I have plenty of new $20's if you want to bring me some $50s.

If you wanted to argue Julio Teheran to be talented, it's harder to argue.
He's on pace for his 4th season of 30+ starts, and even though last year he wasn't good, his ERA the two years previously was 3.20 and 2.89, this season it is 2.79.
There is at least some track record there, especially in a pretty good division.

But Pomeranz???
0 x
User avatar
RhowdyRam02
Frank Keaney
Posts: 10233
Joined: 11 years ago
x 6493

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by RhowdyRam02 »

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:If the sox win a ws before espinoza becomes the next pedro...it will be totally worth it....
I disagree, I don't think you trade the next Pedro for one World Series if you're the Sox and you've won 3 in 12 years and won one just 3 years ago. Now if you're the Cubs and you're trying to break that streak the calculus would be different.

Of course, it's probably not worth discussing. The chances that Espinoza or any prospect turns into a pitcher who has a legitimate claim to being the greatest of all time while also possessing off the charts charisma is microscopically small.
0 x
Take down the Robert Carothers banner and fix the concession stand lines
ramster
Frank Keaney
Posts: 23804
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8856

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by ramster »

Braves would never take Espinosa for Teheran straight up -
I don't see how a guy struggling at Single A Greenville is the next Pedro Martinez. He doesn't even have dominating Ks in single A.
DD grabbed Pomeranz early,2 weeks before deadline when the price of Poker would have continued to escalate in bidding competition
I like what DD is going, not sitting tight but making moves that improve the quality of this year's team when the Red Sox have a login pennant shot. San Diego has no shot and San Diego knew that and DD knew that.
Ben cherington is gone - get used to trades
Much of what I read tend to favor SanDiego as well as Boston. Could be this ends up as a win for both teams.
Can't get anAll Star left handed pitcher in mid July without giving up equivalent talent
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

besides...it's much more likely that, if there is a Pedro available and they want one...they'll acquirte one. just like they did with, um...Pedro.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

Hanley being quite studly tonite. Homer, homer, retaliatory hbp, homer...and several good plays on D.
Great all around game tonite
0 x
ramster
Frank Keaney
Posts: 23804
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8856

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by ramster »

Not impressive first starts for either guy:

http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.js ... x&sid=t584
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

The talented Drew Pomeranz starts his Sox career with a 15 ERA. No where to go but up ... But hey, at least he's not a Clay Buchholz, although Clays worst start this year was 5 innings, 6 ER.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

rjsuperfly66 wrote:The talented Drew Pomeranz starts his Sox career with a 15 ERA. No where to go but up ... But hey, at least he's not a Clay Buchholz, although Clays worst start this year was 5 innings, 6 ER.
Yep, that was sucktacular...
0 x
ramster
Frank Keaney
Posts: 23804
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8856

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by ramster »

rjsuperfly66 wrote:The talented Drew Pomeranz starts his Sox career with a 15 ERA. No where to go but up ... But hey, at least he's not a Clay Buchholz, although Clays worst start this year was 5 innings, 6 ER.
Yep
And the next "Pedro Martinez" only went 3 innings with 2 walks, 7 hits and 1 K while giving up 4 earned runs to start his career with a 12.0 ERA.
I still like the trade.
0 x
Shaolin Swat
ARD
Posts: 502
Joined: 9 years ago
x 154

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by Shaolin Swat »

When evaluating minor league prospects, numbers never tell the whole story. Generally speaking, minor leaguers have goals that they are trying to achieve during games that are not quantifiable when looking at the box score (such as demonstrating better fastball command or improving your breaking ball for pitchers or working ion hitting the ball the other way or modifying your approach at the plate for hitters). In this sense, it's similar to Spring Training, where numbers don't really mean anything and don't necessarily determine whether a player makes the major league club or gets promoted to the next minor league level. Once guys gets to the big leagues, then the numbers are the driving factor in playing time or whether they stick at the big league level.

To me, it's more telling that the organization allowed Espinoza to stick in A Ball, even though he is only 18 and isn't pitching all that great at that level. This tells me that they think he has the mental makeup to handle failure and learn from it, instead of someone that will crumple at the first sign of struggles. The could have always moved him down to Low A if they were truly concerned about the numbers, but they obviously thought that his mental makeup allowed him to handle struggles without ruining his confidence.
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

ramster wrote:
rjsuperfly66 wrote:The talented Drew Pomeranz starts his Sox career with a 15 ERA. No where to go but up ... But hey, at least he's not a Clay Buchholz, although Clays worst start this year was 5 innings, 6 ER.
Yep
And the next "Pedro Martinez" only went 3 innings with 2 walks, 7 hits and 1 K while giving up 4 earned runs to start his career with a 12.0 ERA.
I still like the trade.
Who cares? He's 18 year old@@@
It's like if you had a college basketball team, who would you rather want ... The Top 15, McDonalds All-American as a freshman who may have a few hiccups or the Top 250 player who flashes a few great games OOC their junior year after only being productive in garbage time as a freshman and sophomore?
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

rjsuperfly66 wrote:
ramster wrote:
rjsuperfly66 wrote:The talented Drew Pomeranz starts his Sox career with a 15 ERA. No where to go but up ... But hey, at least he's not a Clay Buchholz, although Clays worst start this year was 5 innings, 6 ER.
Yep
And the next "Pedro Martinez" only went 3 innings with 2 walks, 7 hits and 1 K while giving up 4 earned runs to start his career with a 12.0 ERA.
I still like the trade.
Who cares? He's 18 year old@@@
It's like if you had a college basketball team, who would you rather want ... The Top 15, McDonalds All-American as a freshman who may have a few hiccups or the Top 250 player who flashes a few great games OOC their junior year after only being productive in garbage time as a freshman and sophomore?
Not sure it's a close to a valid compare...the college hoops career is a very short defined window and "includes" part of the guessing game time frame by necessity. Extended (even one year) ups and downs are critical and you can't swap people out whenever you want...you mostly have to grow your own and one year is 25% of the window...

Pro baseball careers are much longer and there are way more PROVEN players available on a regular basis - you can ship guys in and out at will. I still like the trade...just my opinion though.
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

NYG I think you hit on my problem with the trade though - you talk about proven players always being available. What about Pomeranz is proven? He's never started a full season, he's never pitched over 150 innings, the innings he has pitched previous to this season have been largely mediocre. Since when is that the definition of proven? If this was a proven player, the opinion would be different.
0 x
Shaolin Swat
ARD
Posts: 502
Joined: 9 years ago
x 154

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by Shaolin Swat »

rjsuperfly66 wrote:NYG I think you hit on my problem with the trade though - you talk about proven players always being available. What about Pomeranz is proven? He's never started a full season, he's never pitched over 150 innings, the innings he has pitched previous to this season have been largely mediocre. Since when is that the definition of proven? If this was a proven player, the opinion would be different.
To jump on this, advanced statistics are showing that this season (which is the only time Pomeranz could be considered "proven" in any way) Pomeranz has benefitted from a lower than normal BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) and higher than normal LOB% (Left on Base %). This means that breaks are going his way when contact is made and that he has had good fortune with men on base. Generally speaking, these statistics tend to show a regression to the mean, which would result in Pomeranz performing worse with the Red Sox than he did earlier this season. Obviously, there are always outliers, whether it be for a full season or even more long term, but these advanced stats can sometimes paint an accurate picture of future performance.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

The spectrum of 'proven' in MLB is pretty broad. Is Percy 'as proven' like a David Price or Jon Lester?
No...but he is 'more proven' than Andy E and doesn't have to be as proven as Lester or Price to help them win a title.
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Ok but you could make that argument about any prospect... Andrew Benitendi is a few years away from the majors, let's move him for Stephen Vogt to solidify the catcher position, or can move him for some random closer, let's say Jeanmar Gomez. There's a fine line where you have to figure out if the future upside is worth the current and future production. If Pomeranz locks down the 3/4 and the Sox have a good playoff run in partial thanks to him, then you can argue the validity. But Pomeranz is far from proven, and you have no idea what to expect. It's a huge risk for a blue chip prospect.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

It also depends on how desperate you are...I would say they were (are) far more desperate for pitching than catcher or any other position. The greater the level of desperation and possible level of need-filling impact...the more you're willing to pay...

They needed to make a move, so they did...You keep talking about Benintendi for a catcher, but ...it's a totally different conversation...that guy is tearing it up at a higher level and there's lots of feedback that he's likely to contribute at the ML level THIS year, he's MUCH further along, a MUCH surer shot and a MUCH more valuable asset than Andy...not a similar conversation at all....

You seem like you really really miss this guy....are you his uncle? ;)
0 x
ramster
Frank Keaney
Posts: 23804
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8856

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by ramster »

True,
The Red Sox HAD to make a move for a starting pitcher.
They got a guy who made the 2016 All Star Team for the first time in his career. A guy with 115 K's in only 102 innings.
If we didn't get him we would be looking to get another starter and still might be looking for a 5th starter.
You have to trade talent to get talent.
Trading is limited to teams who are not competing with you. It's a tough market for Boston.
I am happy DD is making moves.
Ben C made horrendous moves, thrilled that he is long gone from here
0 x
ramster
Frank Keaney
Posts: 23804
Joined: 11 years ago
x 8856

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by ramster »

Santana could be another acquired starter....
http://www.12up.com/posts/3485583-rumor ... aign=US326
0 x
User avatar
rjsuperfly66
Carlton Owens
Posts: 3425
Joined: 11 years ago
x 1440

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I'm not disagreeing that the Sox needed to make a move, my questioning is if they paid too high of a price for the wrong guy? Yesterday I mentioned Teheran. Even if they had to pay a little more, say Espinosa and a lower-level prospect, I wouldn't have minded. He's at least proven that for the most part he's durable and can contribute 30+ starts, give you around 200+ innings, and consistently have an ERA that more than suffices what they needed. He's signed for more money, but is on a reasonable contract through 2019 with a team option for 2020.

That's my only problem with Pomeranz. If anything, he's unproven. He has had a great year so far. But there is no evidence that he can hold up for 200 innings, or that he can continue it going forward. Clay Buchholz has had great half seasons. There are almost always one or two guys who flash and make an All-Star game, but never come close to living up to that level of consistency. I would have rather traded Benitendi, Moncada, and Espinosa for Jose Fernandez than trade Espinosa for Pomeranz. At least in that case, you know you are getting a guy who has the stuff of a true stud for several years to come. He's 23, has a career ERA of 2.44 in 65 starts, and a K/9 of 11.3 which this year is at a ridiculous 13.3.

The only way you are getting a great pitcher in free agency is if you are willing to pony up $25+ million per season. Any great, stud pitcher like Jose Fernandez hits free agency, they are breaking the market. If he hits free agency at age 26 and his stuff continues to improve, he's talking at least 8 years at $280 million total ($35 million per). The increased importance of pitching as the league leans heavily that way will make it harder and harder to piece together a deep rotation through free agency.
0 x
User avatar
NYGFan_Section208
Frank Keaney
Posts: 12013
Joined: 8 years ago
Location: West K
x 6528

Re: Red Sox and other Major League Baseball - 2016

Unread post by NYGFan_Section208 »

rj...c'mon, you're his uncle, aren't you...and you live in Greenville...right?
0 x
Post Reply