SB predictions

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rambone 78
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rambone 78 »

The play Seattle ran, had to be the highest risk of any of their options at that spot on the field.

I thought for sure Wilson was going to run the read option there. Anything but a pass over the middle directly into the defense.

Any kind of a deflection could have caused an interception besides what happened. The kid made a great play, but the ball was thrown right to him. The only chance the receiver had to catch the ball, would have been if it had been thrown behind him.

You play to your strengths, and win with your best. The Seahawks didn't do that. The Pats were toast if they had. They couldn't tackle Wilson with a net all night.

Good thing it wasn't the Giants who did that.

P.S. Wilfork needs to retire, now. He made a couple plays, but he's easily the fattest and slowest player in the NFL right now. It was comical watching him trying to run. He's listed at 325 lbs? Sure, and I weigh 150.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by SGreenwell »

rambone 78 wrote:The play Seattle ran, had to be the highest risk of any of their options at that spot on the field.
I can't remember if it was Barnwell himself on Grantland, or if he was quoting someone, but he said an interception from the 1-yard line and a fumble at the 1-yard both happen, on average, about 1.5 to 2 percent of the time. (Didn't Cleveland lose a playoff game when Ernest Byner coughed up a fumble on the 5?) So, on average, a pass from there isn't any more risky than a run. However, that's not taking into account that 1) Seattle has Lynch, a Top 5 running back who got 4 yards the previous play and 2) the Patriots were not a good defensive team against power runs. It's still incredibly unlikely that the Pats get an interception, of course, but it would have been marginally safer for Seattle to run.
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rambone 78
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rambone 78 »

Greenwell, it was quoted somewhere, that the last 108 passes attempted from the 1 yard line, there were NO interceptions.

Was that Carroll's justification for running that play, to a no name receiver to boot?

I guess he thought he was going to fool the Pats, instead of just running Lynch or bootlegging Wilson.

He DID fool the Pats, except for one player who read the play. The one he threw the ball directly at. That was enough.

Lynch was wide open to the left. Wilson, if he had run to his right, would have likely walked into the end zone, faking the crap out of any Pats defender close to him, which he had done all night.

So, even though I'm not a Pats fan, Seattle deserved to lose. They beat themselves.
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UCH21377
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by UCH21377 »

ramster wrote:
adam914 wrote:By the way, were any of you Pats fans screaming like I was when Belichick didnt call any timeouts on that last drive to save Brady some time to get the ball back? Obviously it worked out and all is well, but damn I did not get that. Wonder if that's all anybody would be talking about if SEA had scored (and that ridiculous catch of course).
I was thinking the same, but eventually I decided that Belichick knew best - have that much confidence in him built over the years.

After all is over I think this was the right decision, not because it worked out necessarily but consider:

Seattle had to call a time out earlier because the play was too late coming in from the bench. I thought to myself at the time, what a waste and this could come back and haunt Seattle. Then, believe it or not, Seattle had to call a time out AGAIN in the 4th Quarter because they were about to have the play clock expire. 2 Timeouts wasted in the 4th Q!!! Maybe they would have been bettr off taking the 5 yard penalties and save the TOs.

Now they run 4.5 yards with Lynch to get to the .5 yard line on 1st down. What a fantastic effort by the Pats Defense to keep Lynch out of the end zone.
IF Belichick had called a TO then Seattle would have been able to think things over, but more importantly they could then run on 2nd down, use their lone remaining TO if they didn't get in, then run again on 3rd down and run again on 4th down.
Having only 1 TO made Seattle have fewer options if they wanted to have 4 shots to get to the End Zone

It actually made sense what the HC was doing - they could take a shot at passing into the end zone, if incomplete clock stops, then run on 3rd, if not successful call the last TO then run on 4th with the superbowl all on the line for ONE PLAY - how exciting would that have been. BUT, it you are going to passthen it has to be a pass that only the receiver would have a shot at - down the middle is too risky, chance for deflection or worse.

Those two wasted Time Outs due to inefficiency in execution were disastrous. Great coaching on Belichick's part NOT to call the Time Out - he really is a genious.


One other thing:
I have watched over and over the catch by Kearse.
Mistake was by Duron Harmon #30 in jumping over Kearse. You should never give up, never assume. Harmon had a chance to level Kearse making it impossible to catch the ball, for that matter he might have even intercepted the carom but he chose to leap over Kearse and avoid any contact as all.
Butler actually made a fantastic play to deflect the pass and then very alertly sprang to his feet and knocked Kearse out of bounds -otherwise Kearse could have scored. Harmon had taken himself out of the play. Watch below in super slow motion.

http://deadspin.com/jermaine-kearses-in ... 1683234978
Harmon was probably afraid of getting flagged for nailing the guy while he was down. Defenseless receiver. They called those all year.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by UCH21377 »

rambone 78 wrote:The play Seattle ran, had to be the highest risk of any of their options at that spot on the field.

I thought for sure Wilson was going to run the read option there. Anything but a pass over the middle directly into the defense.

Any kind of a deflection could have caused an interception besides what happened. The kid made a great play, but the ball was thrown right to him. The only chance the receiver had to catch the ball, would have been if it had been thrown behind him.

You play to your strengths, and win with your best. The Seahawks didn't do that. The Pats were toast if they had. They couldn't tackle Wilson with a net all night.

Good thing it wasn't the Giants who did that.

P.S. Wilfork needs to retire, now. He made a couple plays, but he's easily the fattest and slowest player in the NFL right now. It was comical watching him trying to run. He's listed at 325 lbs? Sure, and I weigh 150.
Rambone how did NE do against the run last year with Wilfork out?
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rambone 78
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rambone 78 »

You know, after that catch, everybody had to be thinking that karma had it in for the Pats.

That they were going to lose on another wild and crazy play, 3 SB's in a row. This time due to Deflategate.

Imagine the despair in Foxborough. Probably even worse than what Seattle fans are going through.

Also, if the Pats lost, I could see Goodell coming down hard on the Pats sometime this week, whenever the results of the investigation come out.

Now, I doubt they will get punished at all. Just a feeling. Maybe a fine if anything, and that's it. People are still going to believe what they're going to believe though, either way.
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rambone 78
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rambone 78 »

UCH, you and I both know Wilfork isn't the same player he was.

Age and weight have caught up to him. I don't think the Pats run defense right now is much better or worse, with or without him.

If he doesn't retire, they will cut him, especially since they won it this year. One thing the Pats aren't, is sentimental.

The man is a walking double Whopper with cheese. He's grossly overweight. He can't move. Unless an opponent runs directly at him, he's not much of a factor anymore.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

Wilfork is judged off the fact he can draw a double team or push the pocket into the QB's face. He does that. And there's this on ESPN:

When the Patriots reworked nose tackle Vince Wilfork's contract last offseason, it included a two-year team option that must be exercised by the final day of this league year. Wilfork played 73.9 percent of the defensive snaps in 2014, an astonishing total for a player of his size coming off of an Achilles tear. He's an impact player and respected veteran. The two-year option can pay Wilfork up to $15 million ($4 million of which is a roster bonus on the first day of the new league year), meaning the team will assess his value for the next two seasons early in the offseason.


The run D would likely be stronger if chandler jones/ninkovich were more dominant, but they're not and they didn't have to be. The patriots won the Super Bowl.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by UCH21377 »

Rambone,

Not sure I agree. Should he play less, absolutely, probably only first down and short yardage. But he is still a pretty darn good run stopper.

BTW, in 2013, with him out, they gave up 134 YPG, 4.5 YPC, ranking 29th

this year, it was 104.3 YPG, 4.0 YPC, ranking 9th.

i think the big guy had something to do with it. And yes he's one of my favorite guys so i root for him. probably clouds my judgement.
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rambone 78
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rambone 78 »

I'm not saying he doesn't have an effect, he still does.

But next year? Another year older, another 20 or so lbs. I doubt the Pats will keep him.

They have a history of letting guys go who are getting older, even though they are still useful. No long term contracts for guys in their 30's.

That's their business model, and it's the reason they have been consistently good for far longer than anybody else.

I know Brady reworked his contract to help the cap situation, he knows his days are numbered and he wants to contend for more SB's until he retires.

But Wilfork? Big number next year. Now Revis? The Pats might pay to keep him another year, big money or not. Good cornerbacks don't grow on trees.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by Ramulous »

The "facts" on under inflated balls are not yet known...."all the balls were 2 lbs psi under".....seems this isn't true or a fact....one ball seems to be that far under....the ball Indianapolis intercepted...and then their equipment guy let air out of the ball before handing it to the refs....the others were a "tick" below the minimum.....
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by ramfan85 »

Normally, the quick slant in (or out) is the safest pass to throw. Practically indefensible. What made it dangerous in this situation is first, they were too close (heavy traffic in the end zone) to the goal line and second, the Pats were ready for it. Browner deserves a lot of credit for his role in that play. He freed Butler up to make a play.
Seattle likes to say how they always run their plays, challenging the defense to stop them, similar to Lombardi's Packers. Problem with that is people tend to know what you're going to run.
Butler saved a touchdown 3 times in those closing seconds. Before the interception, his pass defense was great on "the catch." While Harmon gave up on that play, Butler was smart enough to stay with it, getting up and stopping the receiver from getting into the end zone.
I heard yesterday that Brady gave Butler his MVP truck. If true, classy move.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

Yeah Butler played his butt off. Even in those stops they needed to get late to take the lead. Butler made that one play on the right hash going up the field he flew over the guy and batted the ball away.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by ramfan85 »

The one thing I noticed about Butler is that all year he was usually on the ball. Too bad he can't grow about 6" in the off season.
I hope he doesn't turn into this year's version of Sterling Moore and gets cut.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by SmartyBarrett »

ATPTourFan wrote:Rod, that's a stupid theory. I know it's not yours, but it's a really stupid theory to think that the head coach with everything else he had running through his head would choose a passing play because he was concerned who would win the MVP.
It's getting to the point where NFL fans aren't happy unless they can drum up some sort of scandal or conspiracy theory.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by banderson1311 »

You can certainly debate whether passing was the right call (it would appear to not have been) but anyone calling it the dumbest play call in history or calling Pete Carroll a moron is using a bit of hindsight-20/20 hyperbole. If Butler doesn't make an amazing play that's a touchdown. An interception was a very unlikely scenario. Sometimes the other guys make a play.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

Sorry, me and 99% of anyone who knows the game, agreed that that was
an incredibly stupid play.
You have an unstoppable back and you try something cute? Dumb!
It's not hindsight when everyone in the world felt Lynch would get the ball for a one foot Super Bowl win.
In the ESPN poll (not exactly scientific) only New England, minus CT, thought the Pats won.
The entire rest of the country polled felt the Sea Scum lost the game.
I agree.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by TruePoint »

SmartyBarrett wrote:
ATPTourFan wrote:Rod, that's a stupid theory. I know it's not yours, but it's a really stupid theory to think that the head coach with everything else he had running through his head would choose a passing play because he was concerned who would win the MVP.
It's getting to the point where NFL fans aren't happy unless they can drum up some sort of scandal or conspiracy theory.
I feel like that is true in general about life now, not just with respect to football.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

Pete's new job:
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by TruePoint »

I feel like people who are overly critical of Carroll don't really grasp the clock situation. In a vacuum, running would be preferable to throwing, but with only 25 seconds and one timeout left one of the three plays had to be a pass. If they hadn't thrown on 2nd down, the Patriots would know they had to throw on third. On top of that, not one of the 108 passes thrown from the goal line this year were intercepted, so they likely didn't view it as risky.

The most frustrating thing to me about all the bitching about the play call is that it is ignoring that Malcolm Butler really made one of the best plays in sports history, when you factor in stakes, circumstance, and the mental and physical effort he put forth to pick that ball off. More praise should be going to him than mindless criticism of the play call by millions of people who collectively don't know as much about football as Pete Carroll has forgot in the last week.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by ramster »

TruePoint wrote:I feel like people who are overly critical of Carroll don't really grasp the clock situation. In a vacuum, running would be preferable to throwing, but with only 25 seconds and one timeout left one of the three plays had to be a pass. If they hadn't thrown on 2nd down, the Patriots would know they had to throw on third. On top of that, not one of the 108 passes thrown from the goal line this year were intercepted, so they likely didn't view it as risky.

The most frustrating thing to me about all the bitching about the play call is that it is ignoring that Malcolm Butler really made one of the best plays in sports history, when you factor in stakes, circumstance, and the mental and physical effort he put forth to pick that ball off. More praise should be going to him than mindless criticism of the play call by millions of people who collectively don't know as much about football as Pete Carroll has forgot in the last week.
I agree, BUT the pass should have not been down the middle but on an out pattern so the pass could have been thrown out of any reach of a defender.
Most criticism of Carroll and especially of the Offensive Coordinator was not being able to get the play off not once but twice in the 4th quarter and having to waste TWO timeouts. One is inexcusable but TWO times there are no words for. If Seattle had two timeouts remaining instead of one then they could have run Lynch all 3 times and never would have had to pass. Game, set, match.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by TruePoint »

Totally agree on both points. Even having to pass, a better pass play should have been called. Personally I would have rolled Wilson out on a bootleg to give him the option run or throw it in or throw it into the stands if he had to (since he would be outside the tackle box). Using the timeouts also hurt them, and so did using the whole play clock after Lynch was stopped on first down. If they had gotten the second down play off quicker they would have had time to run three times. Clock management was definitely an issue.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by ramster »

Agree, TP.
I think that Seattle was overly concerned about trying to keep New England from getting the ball back with time to score. In doing so they made some bad decisions themselves. Makes Belichick lookeven smarter by not calling timeout. If he had called timeout then Seattle would have been able to run the ball 3 times
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by banderson1311 »

Count Bill Belichick as one of those people who knows nothing about football apparently:
"There has been a lot of criticism that I don't think is anywhere close to being deserved or founded," Belichick said Tuesday during his weekly appearance on sports radio WEEI in Boston. "That football team is very good, very well-coached, and Pete does a great job.

"Malcolm and Brandon [Browner], on that particular play, just made a great play. I think the criticism they've gotten for the game is totally out of line and by a lot of people who I don't think are anywhere near even qualified to be commenting on it."
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by RhowdyRam02 »

People take way too much out of public comments. Can you picture any scenario that has Belichick saying, "Yeah, we're really glad Pete Carroll was total clown shoes the last minute of the game. He totally blew the clock management, then doubled down on his stupidity by calling a crap play that they call all the time so we had our guys thoroughly drilled and ready for. That's why I'm one of the best two or three coaches of all time and Pete Carroll's not."
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rodfromcranston
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

Yeah. like Belichick is going to say,"Pete Carroll handed us the game
with that dumbass play. Thanks Pete!"
The ex NFL players on the various networks all voiced disbelief on that call.
Guess they don't know much about football, huh?
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by TruePoint »

It clearly was not the ideal play call, it just wasn't as bad of an idea as a lot of people think. I do believe he had to pass at least once, and while a different pass play may have been safer, that play looked open and should have been open, the kid Butler just made a phenomenal play (which he isn't getting enough credit for).

As far as ex-players, not a lot MENSA members there. I don't really consider their opinions on strategy any more relevant than anyone else's.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

Seahawks goal line pass plays are rollouts and pick plays. They don't have a jump ball receiver. The MAtthews guy just showed up. He wasn't part of their season long strategy. They ran the pick play, which had worked for them earlier in the game and all season. BB didn't call a timeout, put pressure on them to manage the clock and make a decision.

Butler made an amazing play, Browner really showed up. Lockette and Wilson were beat there soundly. Respect it.

The NFL experts that played aren't the absolute authority. There is no guarantee Lynch runs that ball in. To spend so much time bemoaning it and calling it some truth is foolish. The statistics back all that up.
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rodfromcranston
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

So, are the former coaches all morons, too?
Seems almost a universal opinion that it was a dumb play.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by TruePoint »

rodfromcranston wrote:So, are the former coaches all morons, too?
Seems almost a universal opinion that it was a dumb play.
Of course it is because everyone hates the Patriots and they are pissed Seattle lost. They called the play they wanted and we beat them on it. That is the whole discussion. If anyone that mattered cared what anyone else thought of the play call they would coaching a team and not talking on TV.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by RhowdyRam02 »

That was a dumb call, I don't care what anyone thinks. When it comes to winning a championship you have to go with your best players and plays. Two chances with Marshawn Lynch is better than rolling with Ricardo frickin' Lockette.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by adam914 »

Everyone is giving Belichick too much credit and Carroll too much blame. It's easy in hindsight to sit here and say the call was the dumbest in history because it didn't work. Like others have said, yeah it probably wasnt the best idea, but the kid also made a great play and beat them on it.

It works the other way to, Belichick isn't some genius for not calling a timeout. You say that now because Butler made a great play so all of a sudden it looks like he somehow made the Seahawks rush into making some call they didn't really want to make.

If the ball had been caught (or Lynch ran it in) and the Seahawks won, just as many people would be questioning why Belichick didn't call timeouts to give Brady time to score again.

If you want to credit Belichick, credit him (and the DC) for having their guys ready to make that play because Butler said as soon as he saw the way they were lined up he knew exactly what was coming and was able to jump it. But not calling a timeout wasn't some mastermind move to trick Carroll into doing something he didn't want to do.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by TruePoint »

I agree that the call was not great, but people have made it all about that like they would have automatically scored if they ran it. It seems like people were so invested in the Patriots losing that it is easier to blame Seattle than give NE credit. Butler's play was one of the best plays in the history of the sport when you consider the stakes and the circumstance and the physical play itself, not even taking into account how remarkable it was that this specific guy made it in a secondary with two all-pros. That should be what people are talking about but instead people only want to talk about Carroll's call, which is only getting any attention because of the incredible play made by Butler.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

Foolish to say woulda coulda shoulda so much.

Also NFL coaches and players, I know some and they don't follow the sport or ever have. It's not rare that these guys do it for a living and not pay attention to the rest of the league.

What coach?? I'm sure Pete Carroll measures up favorably and he made the call.

To say what if this happened and that happened the story would be different could be applied to everything.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by Running Ram »

Right! like all the other 'correct' choices Carroll made to get them seconds away from a SB repeat. So many factors go into that call, available TO's, just to name the one that seems most relevant to me, here is where I believe Carroll got out maneuvered, but only in hindsight. BB did not take a TO in the waning moments knowing Petesy only had one left, probably hoping for a 2nd down pass, at the least figuring one of the plays would have to be a pass, the rest is execution, the play wasn't there because the pick got blown up by Browner, Butler and Browner practiced for that very scenario. The call, while not great, imo wasn't terrible either, the credit goes to BB and the Boys for preparedness, otherwise the narrative is the Seahawks lost it, not the Patriots won it.
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Re: SB predictions

Unread post by ram1980 »

watched game on NFL network again last night.. Never gets old.. Loved watching Marshawn Lynch walking off field with big grin on his face, going right by Pete Carroll smiling.. Carroll could not even look at him.. Think Lynch thought it was the right call???
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