Kris Dunn

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TruePoint
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by TruePoint »

Would be Cooley's biggest recruiting coup yet. Not sure how I feel about it, since it is definitely better for the RI basketball market overall but it also clearly a huge risk and probably a bad choice by Dunn. If it was a URI player that was a projected top-20 pick, I would want him to go for his own sake. It is selfish to want a kid to risk his future so you can possibly get some vicarious joy.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

College basketball fans have to be selfish. Why else have recruiting pages promoting reasons why a player should come to a school? If a kid is on the fence with his decision, it's rather disingenuous to pretend you would take this moral high road and wish he would leave for "his own sake." You'd want him back for "just one more year" just as much as everybody else. It's easy to say you wouldn't feel that way, given that it's not a scenario that comes up frequently. But what if it were E.C. Matthews popping up in draft boards in the 15-25 range? You'd be sitting here today saying "Boy, EC would be a moron to come back to URI. Leave, leave now. I'll go help you pack your bags. You'll be stupid to come back to URI." I don't think so.

The only part I would agree with you is those saying (and I don't think there are many) that "He'd be stupid to leave as a potential Top 20 pick when he could be a Top 5 pick next year." There is no such thing as being stupid when there is guaranteed money on the table. I don't think any PC fans really think that, rather just wishing for one more year of a special talent. It's up to the player to determine the acceptable risk, but he'd make more money in 2 years as the #7 pick ($5.11 million) then he would in 3 years as the #15 pick ($4.84 million).
Last edited by rjsuperfly66 9 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

If he is coming back I bet it is for a reason. The players that are considered to be a handful spots out of the lottery are not LOCKS.

How many PGS will be picked in the 1st round? There is a lot that goes into what he will be actually picked.

I think he could easily play himself into a better draft slot as much as he could play his way out in workouts. He is just not a shooter in what has become a shooters league. Also many teams have invested in backcourt people recently. The combo of teams having the pgs they want and the other pgs at the top of the draft could be a problem for him.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by hrstrat57 »

Why can't he purchase an insurance policy and play another year at D1?
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Re: Kris Dunn

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hrstrat57 wrote:Why can't he purchase an insurance policy and play another year at D1?
It's somewhat pricy - $20,000 to $30,000 per year, according to this article from a couple years ago: http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2010 ... hands.html - Players can take out a low-interest loan and insure themselves for up to $5 million. However, even with insurance, you're still guarding against the risk as opposed to just taking the money now.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by SmartyBarrett »

He's back.

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Shaolin Swat
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by Shaolin Swat »

This is going to make December 5th even more fun
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sf2010
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by sf2010 »

Welcome back, Kris! See you on 12/5
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by TruePoint »

Shaolin Swat wrote:This is going to make December 5th even more fun
Exactly. For us, it is a good thing. I don't want to beat a diminished Friar team. I want to beat a respectable Friar team.

But. Really foolish move on the kid's part. I hope for his sake it works out, but there is almost no upside to this and so many things that could go wrong. All kids who are a certainty to be first round picks should go, every time.
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Re: Kris Dunn

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j/k

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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by TruePoint »

I think Woj's report sited a "league source," and he is about as well-sourced as they come in terms of the NBA. We'll see.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

TP, why is there no upside? A player drafted 20th makes $3.81 million his first three seasons. A player drafted 10th makes $6.26 million his first three seasons. A player drafted 5th makes $9.44 million his first three seasons. Is there risk? Of course there is risk. But when you come from a family that isn't exactly destitute, I think it gives a player a little more leeway to take a risk, as opposed to some of these players who are from tough places or have to support families at a young age. If he bets on himself in the year of a weak draft and hits big, his bet pays off.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by TruePoint »

rj, I just don't know that there is that much room to move up the boards. The NBA drafts on potential, not college output. Physically, he is going to be the same guy and project to be basically the same player next year (assuming he doesn't get hurt). So if he has a better statistical season next year (which is likely), how much of a difference is that really going to make in the draft? Add to that the fact that even assuming his first contract is worth more, he is giving away a year of earning by staying in school. That means he gets to his veteran contract a year later and probably gets paid for playing basketball one less year in his life.

I know you said last week that I might be singing a different tune if it was EC Matthews and not Kris Dunn, but I wouldn't be. Selfishly you want a kid to come back and help the team you root for, but in the bigger picture there are ancillary benefits to a program of getting guys to the League and if you really feel a kinship with your school and its athletes, you want to see the members of your family do well. As a general rule in life, I'm never a fan of someone leaving money on the table unless the non-quantifiable benefits of doing so are just off the charts.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I understand your point, but there is a difference between Kris Dunn and Recruit A. Dunn has played roughly 60 collegiate games and most of those banged up or limited. Many GMs acknowledged flaws in his game but thought there could be corrected in time and that he still has plenty of room for growth to help reach his potential. When you are heading towards a draft class in which one NBA personnel man at the McDonalds AA game said he could not see one clear cut one and done player, I think there is an element there of trying to a) improve the game b) rise in a much weaker draft. If Dunn stays the same or falls, it means he did not improve the areas he needed to to be a successful NBA player. It's certainly a risk, but rising just 5 draft spots means notable difference in money, even if comparing 2 years for staying to 3 years of leaving now.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

The incoming freshmen class is weak. The back court players in the 15 draft are way beyond the 16's. So a mid 1st round guy gets vaulted up. No secret there.

Plus overall there aren't the legit 1 and dones that there are this year.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by SGreenwell »

Seawrightspostgame wrote:The incoming freshmen class is weak. The back court players in the 15 draft are way beyond the 16's. So a mid 1st round guy gets vaulted up. No secret there.

Plus overall there aren't the legit 1 and dones that there are this year.
He's already projected in the 13 to 22 range, which is on the cusp of the lottery to firmly in the first round. Even if the incoming freshman class is weak, I think it's likely Dunn still goes in that same range next year, unless he has a monster year demonstrating skills that would completely change his NBA peak.
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Re: Kris Dunn

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I read somewhere that the '16 draft is supposed to be weaker than the current year. Perhaps that's why he's willing to stay.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by Shaolin Swat »

SGreenwell wrote:
Seawrightspostgame wrote:The incoming freshmen class is weak. The back court players in the 15 draft are way beyond the 16's. So a mid 1st round guy gets vaulted up. No secret there.

Plus overall there aren't the legit 1 and dones that there are this year.
He's already projected in the 13 to 22 range, which is on the cusp of the lottery to firmly in the first round. Even if the incoming freshman class is weak, I think it's likely Dunn still goes in that same range next year, unless he has a monster year demonstrating skills that would completely change his NBA peak.
While he's being projected to go between 13 and 22, I'd wager there was someone on his behalf gauging interest from NBA front offices, who possibly painted a different scenario to him. I find it hard to believe that he would make a decision simply based on some outside mock drafts.

Admittedly, I don't follow Dunn's game too closely, but I believe that I heard one of the knocks on his game is that he's not a great shooter. With this being something that is easier to work on compared to other possible "prospect flaws", I could definitely see him jumping into the 10-15 range next year, with an outside chance of getting inside the top 10.

All that being said, him coming back is a great thing for Rhode Island hoops. I respect his decision to stay in school and I'll be pulling for him next year (except for 12/5)
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by Seawrightspostgame »

My personal opinion is that he legit faces 20+ selection this year maybe. Next year he is firmly in the lottery.

Think of teams off the top of your head and think of the money or draft picks invested in PGs. The teams without will have a couple chances ahead of Dunn to fill those positions. I don't think he is in very good position this year. I do think he is very talented.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Yeah, I admit to potential bias but I honestly feel that his ceiling this year (around pick 13-14) is his floor next season (assuming health). He'll have tons of preseason hype (potential preseason AA, watch lists, etc). A player listed among the best PG's this season, he should be at the top next year. If he reasonably lives up to the hype, can't see any way he isn't a lottery pick. I just don't see a strong enough draft class to warrant legit concern in that regard.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by Shaolin Swat »

rjsuperfly66 wrote:Yeah, I admit to potential bias but I honestly feel that his ceiling this year (around pick 13-14) is his floor next season (assuming health). He'll have tons of preseason hype (potential preseason AA, watch lists, etc). A player listed among the best PG's this season, he should be at the top next year. If he reasonably lives up to the hype, can't see any way he isn't a lottery pick. I just don't see a strong enough draft class to warrant legit concern in that regard.
It'll certainly be an interesting case next year with him coming out as technically a 4-year player. If my memory serves me right (aka I don't want to look through all of the recent drafts), the NBA draft is not kind to 4-year guys, with most of them being drafted at the tail end of the top 10 and into the teens. I'm not saying that it won't happen, because I don't typically start looking at a draft class until right around this time of year, but I wonder if the 4-year college label will impact him at all. Hopefully, he proves me wrong and goes out and becomes a high lottery pick. That would be great for basketball in the state.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I agree, although I think personnel around the league have bought into the "he's been really banged up so he still has room to grow" thought that has been thrown around. Even though he's 21 and will be 22 next year, most seem to see him still rather raw. But you are right, traditionally four year players struggle to get picked in the Top 10. The last draft where 4 year players really had an impact was 2006, when Sheldon Williams, Brandon Roy, and Randy Foye went 5-7. The highest sincee then I believe was Damian Lillard at 6 in 2012.
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Re: Kris Dunn

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As expected...

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Re: Kris Dunn

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I wonder if Friar fans and students will again take to the streets to burn couches.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by ramfan85 »

They've already burned the couches. Now, they're on to bedroom sets.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by gorhody89 »

Guys I hate PC as much as anyone but let's not act like URI students have never set couches on fire
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Re: Kris Dunn

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gorhody89 wrote:Guys I hate PC as much as anyone but let's not act like URI students have never set couches on fire
Bingo. When Dan Hurley leads URI to a championship we all know URI students will burn down all of Narragansett.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by GansettSummer »

From Jeff Goodman's ESPN Insider article - Best and worst college-to-NBA decisions
http://espn.go.com/blog/jeff-goodman/in ... st?id=4969

Kris Dunn, Providence Friars

I hate to say that a kid made a bad decision by returning to school, but I feel that it was risky for Dunn -- who would have been a lock first-rounder and maybe even moved his way into the lottery. Remember, he also has gone through a pair of major shoulder surgeries, and Dunn will have an extra burden after the Friars also lost their go-to scorer in LaDontae Henton.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by Ramblinrose »

I was surprised to see Dunn come back. Most kids won't turn down first round cash. I wish more would. The college game wqs better when players played three years.
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

It's so rare, indeed. Did some state house PC fan hook Dunn up with some $$$ to cover the risk of staying?
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Re: Kris Dunn

Unread post by ramfan85 »

ATPTourFan wrote:It's so rare, indeed. Did some state house PC fan hook Dunn up with some $$$ to cover the risk of staying?

I think they made him a partner in the PawSox stadium deal.
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