4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

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rjsuperfly66
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

The Big East doesn't have the firepower of the ACC, Big 10, SEC, the Big 12, or even the Pac-12 or AAC, but it also doesn't have the same amount of junk at the bottom. The gap between the Big East and the supposed mid-majors, it's astronomical at this point. Per KenPom, the average rating in the Big East is over an 80. In the A-10, it's a 69. And the AAC is a 66 without Louisville and Rutgers and with their incoming additions. I agree the sample size is small, but the likelihood of astronomical changes one way or the other would be odd. Usually as some rise, others fall, but the biggest fluctuations are with less games in the filter, not more (like Marquette who plummeted after the Ohio St. loss, but could have absorbed it better 12 or 15 games in). As we all would agree though, these regular season numbers mean nothing without winning in March, but I wouldn't call the new Big East a cupcake either.

What I do know is that recruiting as stayed at "major" conference level and the depth of a great conference is still there. The biggest problem the Big East will have is competing with the best of other conferences. If that drops them to "mid-major" status, so be it. But the gap between the Big East and the other mid-majors is currently enormous.
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rambone 78
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rambone 78 »

The difference between the BE and the A10 can be found at the bottom of the A10.

Take away the A10 weak sisters, and the A10 is on par, imo, with the BE.

The BE's worst are better than the A10's worst. There you go.

If you want to say the BE is a high mid major BB conference, that's accurate. High major? No way.
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seanmc94
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by seanmc94 »

Who do you consider the weak sisters of the A-10?
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

As of two days ago, the top 10 of the A10 rated in at a 73+. The Big East 10 rated at a 80+.

Conclusion: The A-10 "Top 10" still don't quite meet the challenge of the Big East "Top 10" so far this season. They are like AAA+ (there is such a gap between the SEC who is 7th and the A-10 who is 8th right now that even eliminating those bottom teams doesn't make up the difference).
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rambone 78
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rambone 78 »

The weak sisters are Fordham, Duquesne, and St. Bona. We were, but that's about to change, one hopes.

As to the difference between the BE and the A10's top 10, that's based on very early returns. I know there's still a difference, but it's not that big of a difference. We'll see how it shakes out this season.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I agree with that. I think VCU has clearly established itself as the best team in either conference. After that, I think there are a lot of toss-ups. KenPom seems to think 7 of the best 10 teams so far from either conference come from the Big East (at least it was until Dayton beat G-Tech last night). I'm not sure it's that simplistic, yet. Marquette was supposed to be one of the breadwinners for the new Big East, but statistically they've had a poor start to the season. If they remain a statistical "bubble team," I'm not confident the conference will have a strong year, because eventually Seton Hall and DePaul are due to fall like every season. I'm also not sold on Villanova being in his Top 20.

Like I said the other day though, seems to be a lot of give and take. One team rises, another team tends to fall. OOC is where most of the movement will come.
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Carl K Tortella
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by Carl K Tortella »

Nice Georgetown win over a tough Northeastern team. Oh, I am sorry Georgetown lost to Bill Coen's Huskies!!!!!!!! That should help their RPI.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

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Carl K, didn't see you at Giro's Saturday afternoon pre-game! Can we take a rain check for free shots?
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by Carl K Tortella »

The free shots were designated for pre football games @ 11 AM or so, my tradition. Did not go to Giros until after the UMass Lowell game. However I will grandfather YOU in ATPTourFan for that shot the afternoon of the pc game when I hope that Giros is rocking with Rhody fans! I will be the guy with the tequila shots dancing on the bar !!!!
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Can you really make fun of Georgetown when your best program (VCU) just lost to them? If anything it proves the old saying "anything can happen on any day."
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

For all those who thought Fox Sports was some gateway to
a higher profile, the Kentucky-PC game drew
360,000 viewers.
I think test patterns have more viewers.
On Cox Cable, they have the two Fox Sports stations, far apart.
Fox Sports One is next to The Oprah Network, Nat Geo, and TV Guide Channel.
I just don't get why they can do a better job of bunching similar channels.
They get enough money from their customers.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by RF1 »

It will be interesting to see how the new Catholic Big East will do with NCAA bids this year. Right now it is looking like it will not be all that different from the A-10.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Rod,

I believe there is a process they have to go through to realign channels. For example on Verizon, FS1 is channel 83 (or 583). FXX (a movie and TV channel) is channel 84 (or 584). It's between FS1 and Big 10 network, surrounded by 10 sports channels on either side. There is a process they have to go through that will put the channels into appropriate alignment, but I believe that takes some time, since other channels have to be bumped.

As for ratings, they have slowly improved. November was the biggest month for FS1 so far, boosted by some big primetime football games, Baylor/Oklahoma and Oregon/Oregon St. among them. An article by MMA Report detailed the improvements:

Primetime viewers in thousands (November, October, September): 457, 246, 215
Daytime viewers in thousands: 134, 115, 110

Fox Sports has seemed to continue to build it's niche, it's well below ESPN, but pushing safely above NBC and CBS.

Right now, I think Fox Sports has a few immediate problems:

1 - Fox Sports 2 is still not available to all customers. Putting games there, does not necessarily make them accessible.
2 - They need to make a run at some of the bigger conferences, when they become available. I believe Big 10 is up in 2 years, it is imperative to land them. Their football alone can drive huge ratings. FS already is a majority partner in the B1G network, so you would think there are some advantages.
3 - They also need some professional sports. UFC has had huge ratings in terms of the the top producing shows on the network, but something like the NBA can drive a station.

Big East basketball has proven what we already know, college basketball is not a station driver. It can be a nice complement, however.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

I'm sure there's a process, but if you look at the Cox lineup, it makes little sense.
Plus, they have a bunch of channels in the 400s and 800s that few even know about.
I've tried to watch Fox Sports. Just too much MMA stuff, and shows like ESPN's afternoon junk,
where people are yelling at each other.
ESPN must feel they're well in the drivers seat, to put an entire opening half hour of
Sports Center on Mike Shanahan's press conference about benching RGlll.
and most of one last week on Mandela's death. The latter is a news story, not a sports story.
They're also going all out trying to jam soccer down everyone's throats
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by twisted3829 »

fox sports 2 is like cbs sports network, and fxx is surrounded by sports because it used to be Fox Soccer
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

They are sort of stuck with UFC, since it brings decent ratings to the station. I believe 3 of the stations 5 highest viewed programs to date have been UFC fight cards. Due to that fact, you have to show decent amount of coverage to keep Dana White happy. However, UFC like college basketball are complimentary sports. The problem that they've had is in growing the station, the Big East and UFC have been forced by default to try to lead the station, but that's not a successful long-term model, we all know that.

ESPN can sit back and relax because of their current sporting lineup. NFL coverage along with NBA and elite college football with always give ESPN plenty of gap between them and competitors. Fox Sports has been in talks to acquire a package of Thursday Night Football games, which would be big, but NBA is up after next season I believe? If Fox lands the NBA, that will be a huge blow to ESPN. It's important, because outside of B1G and NBA, most athletic conferences and professional sports organizations are locked up well into the 2020's. If you want to make an impact, there is a small window in 2015 to grow the "Fox" brand. I think whoever obtains NBA or B1G rights, will overpay by billions over however many years the contract is.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by SGreenwell »

Re: the TV contract, it should also be said that the value of rights for all sports is exploding, since it's one of the few programming options for networks that can't really be DVRed, and it comes built in with an attractive demographic for advertisers (mostly men 18 to 65). The Dodgers TV rights went for around $6 billion... And that's their take after they gave $2.5 billion to MLB in revenue sharing. It's not really a sport, but the WWE's contract with USA / NBC Universal is up soon, and they're also expected to make a killing even though their ratings are on a slight decline the past few years.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by seanmc94 »

rodfromcranston wrote:For all those who thought Fox Sports was some gateway to
a higher profile, the Kentucky-PC game drew
360,000 viewers.
I think test patterns have more viewers.
On Cox Cable, they have the two Fox Sports stations, far apart.
Fox Sports One is next to The Oprah Network, Nat Geo, and TV Guide Channel.
I just don't get why they can do a better job of bunching similar channels.
They get enough money from their customers.
360,000 viewers for a non ESPN college game isn't that awful.

Fox has soccer and the UFC. Outside of the nfl; there isn't a sport that scores bigger with millennial males.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by Ramulous »

I look at the big east games listed on fox and think that it ain't your father's big east anymore.....can't imagine there is much national interest in Longwood v St John's.....or NJIT v Seton Hall......welcome to the world of the mid-majors.....they are the most lucrative of the mid-majors....but a mid-major nonetheless....and the gap between the big east and the A-10 is much smaller than ever on the court....just the way I see it...
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by Ramulous »

But for the differences in the tv dollars they receive you could concur with the sporting news....the big east can use that money to buy more victories against the Longwoods of the world....but they still have to play the BCS guys on the BCS terms...see pc v kentucky and the lack of a home game for pc...
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I don't think that's fair to say. Any BCS team like that hasn't had much recent success like PC would struggle to find quality home games (although they just got a home and home with Michigan, but struggled to get BCS opponents prior). Syracuse is playing at St. John's this weekend (which is like a home game for Syracuse) but is also keeping home and home relationships alive with Gtown and Villanova in the future. Marquette hosted Ohio St. this year. Good teams can get matchups with good opponents, whether true neutral or home and homes. The key is maintaining that good to great status. You can have one down year, but not many more than that.
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seanmc94
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by seanmc94 »

Ramulous wrote:I look at the big east games listed on fox and think that it ain't your father's big east anymore.....can't imagine there is much national interest in Longwood v St John's.....or NJIT v Seton Hall......welcome to the world of the mid-majors.....they are the most lucrative of the mid-majors....but a mid-major nonetheless....and the gap between the big east and the A-10 is much smaller than ever on the court....just the way I see it...
On the flip side; you have VCU v gtown, PC v UK and Marquette v OSU. Is that more appetizing?
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

The argument just doesn't make sense ... Let's say ABC Network decided to start ABC Sports Network and make the A-10 the marquee conference on the channel to start. They said "URI, as a member of the A-10, you will get 25 games on national TV, as will all your conference members." The response from URI fans and alumni would be a standing ovation. What would that mean though? Games that normally wouldn't get a sniff on ESPN, Maine, New Hampshire, UMASS-Lowell, instead of being Cox only or not televised at all, they would now be on national TV. Obviously nationally, people wouldn't care. It's the nature of the beast though... It's what happens when a new network says "You guys are our #1, and will be treated as such right now." Any conference in this country would have the same struggles, since most teams schedule their fair share of duds OOC, and unfortunately, ESPN owns most rights to preseason tournaments.

That's why it's imperative for Fox Sports 1 to bring in other quality programming, so Butler vs. DIII ends up on a regional network, and not primetime television, because naturally, Butler vs. Manchester (a D3 school) has no interest to anyone. All things considered though, FS1 is right where many hoped it would be at this point. Established above the other cable sports networks, excluding ESPN. FS1 has already doubled up NBC Sports ratings, and CBS isn't even on the radar.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rhodyrudder »

SGreenwell wrote:Re: the TV contract...It's not really a sport, but the WWE's contract with USA / NBC Universal is up soon, and they're also expected to make a killing even though their ratings are on a slight decline the past few years.

Not really a sport?
Say it ain't so!
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

WWE is everywhere. USA, Sci-fi (???) Mun2 .
It's still a big item on TV, and Raw regularly outdraws network competition
on Monday nights.
Problem they have is, besides John Cena, most of the big names are gone, even Vince,
and it doesn't look like anyone is around to replace them, so they're going with
more gimmicks and even more ridiculous story lines.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by seanmc94 »

Daniel Bryan, randy orton are wildly popular.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

I can't stand Randy Orton. Creepy looking snake eyes.
He's a bad guy in and out of the ring.
DD from the military, drugs, was suspended from WWE for steroids.
Bryan is a strange "everyman" guy, who somehow, caught on with
WWE fans.
Brie Bella and Bryan is the biggest physical mismatch since Russell Brand
and Katy Perry.
Neither Orton nor Bryan are Goldberg, The Rock, Steve Austin, Edge, or Brett Hart.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by SGreenwell »

seanmc94 wrote:Daniel Bryan, randy orton are wildly popular.
They are to John Cena what Randy Savage and Bret Hart were to Hulk Hogan at various points. They're all really well-known amongst people who watch regularly, but I'm not sure casual fans are really drawn in by them. I think the biggest thing hurting the WWE right now though is the lack of a good competitor to push them, since TNA has been underwhelming for years.

However, I didn't mean to make us tangent :D I was just bringing up the WWE as an example of a live, sport-like event that's illustrative of the exploding cost of media rights for that sort of programming. We did have a wrestling topic at one point, so I'd recommend that someone bump it up if you want to talk about the PPV coming up or something: http://keaneyblue.com/viewtopic.php?f=2 ... =wrestling
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rodfromcranston »

The one thing (OK one of the things) that bothers me about the WWE broadcasts
is, it's become an advertisement for whatever upcoming PPV they have.
They also have these cheesey break ins with lower end wrestlers hawking
WWE items.
The other is, there are no more one on one matches. Every match seems to end with
a couple of hundred people in the ring.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by Captainron@ »

It won't happen overnight, but Fox Sports will be successful. When Fox decides to do something, they do it and they don't care what it costs to get to where they want. When they said they were going to be the 4th network, everyone laughed. Fox News taking on CNN? Ha! They make mistakes, but pour tons of money in and eventually make inroads and in lots of cases dominate. This is jut the opening shot. Lets see where they are in 5 years.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by seanmc94 »

The 90s; with the attitude era in the WWE and the NWO in wcw were the pinnacle for me .
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by bigappleram »

Fox has failed at prior attempts to challenge espn. It's not a fait accompli they will succeed just because Murdoch has deep pockets. Winning in sports is not the same as winning at news. Espn is the clear leader and fox even isn't in the same race yet. Maybe some day, but trust BE basketball will not be their path to mass relevance
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