4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

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4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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i could be wrong but IMO PC will crap on Villanova and X who are both ranked ahead of them. classic overrating based on history/brand name. on paper they have much more talent than either of those schools this year.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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Yeah. PC is underrated in every one of these lists. Definitely at least 5th for the Friars.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I would pencil PC anywhere from 3rd-7th so I have no problem with any of these predictions. I think I know two things for certain:

1) Marquette and Georgetown should finish 1-2.
2) Butler, Seton Hall, and DePaul should finish 8-10.

The rest of the teams, complete crap shoot in my mind. I've never been high on Creighton and after watching them last season, at the end of the year in the MVC they were on complete bubble watch. They lucked into an NCAA Tournament game with one of the only teams I thought was worse then them (Cincy sucked in BE play last year), and then got obliterated against Duke if I recall. Put me in the category of not buying the hype. I think they can compete, but wouldn't lock them into a Top 3 position.

As for the rest of the teams, I think it could be a big mess. A lot of teams capable of winning anywhere on a good day but also have some limitations that could lead to some head scratching losses. It wouldn't surprise me to see all to see those 5 teams all between 8 and 10 wins.

If you held me captive and wanted a prediction, I would probably say:

1) Marquette
2) Georgetown
3) St. John's
4) Villanova
5) Providence
6) Creighton
7) Xavier
8) Butler
9) Seton Hall
10) DePaul

I'll also fully admit to having an old-Big East bias though. I think seeing the cores of the different teams, having played through a season or two in the old Big East against one of the toughest conferences in America, they will be better prepared for the grind and style of play. However, still wouldn't surprise me to see 3-7 in any order.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

Unread post by Carl K Tortella »

Let's see - Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Pittsburg, Cincinnati, and UConn- GONE! GONE! GONE! They can call it the big east but in reality the A -10 is going to be a better league this coming season. It"s more like the LEAST of the Big east!! The A -10 has an equal # of returning 2013 tournament teams ; Butler is NOW a big question mark and St. Johns, Seton Hall, DePaul, Xavier and the friars SUCK!!! Talk about living in the past.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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Heh! Thanks for that objective outlook! :)
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

Unread post by bigappleram »

Tortella, you may want to check out St John's roster for this season...unless Lavin is the worst coach in America they are gonna be a very tough team.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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THEY SHOULD RENAME THE LEAGUE THE little ten!
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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Everyone loves a good old biased response right? Come March, the BE should (that is the qualifier) have 7 teams on the bubble getting at least 40% of the conference into the NCAA Tournament. It's not the old Big East, nor does it have the firepower at the top, but the conference 1-10 should be one, if not the deepest, conference in America top to bottom. The teams that Torts say all suck, should for the most part be improved. Do we say URI sucked because of past problems? No, because the future is better, but why let that get in the way of a silly argument?
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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Carl K Tortella wrote:Let's see - Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Pittsburg, Cincinnati, and UConn- GONE! GONE! GONE! They can call it the big east but in reality the A -10 is going to be a better league this coming season. It"s more like the LEAST of the Big east!! The A -10 has an equal # of returning 2013 tournament teams ; Butler is NOW a big question mark and St. Johns, Seton Hall, DePaul, Xavier and the friars SUCK!!! Talk about living in the past.
Based on this opinion; what you know about college hoops could fit on the head of a pin.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

Unread post by rhodylaw »

The new big east will be ok, but that is it. They may even be slightly better than the A10 as a whole considering our dead weight. That said, losing those teams is huge. I often thought that the reason why the lower BE teams were ok overall is due to the fact they had to play elite teams in conference play. That is gone
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

Unread post by rambone 78 »

The A10's top teams will be as good as the BE's top teams.

The middle teams in each conference will be close, but I would give a slight edge to the BE.

The bottom of each conference is where I would give a bigger edge to the BE.

Like was said, more dead weight in the A10. It does look like at least some of the bottom A10 programs, like Fordham, will be better this year. At least we will be a LOT better.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

Unread post by Ramulous »

The new big east and the A-10 have to build their brand by beating BCS teams in out of conference play. I think the big east teams have better scheduling options available to them due to higher revenues so they will be able to win buy games against non-BCS teams to inflate their ooc records.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

Unread post by Obadiah »

Doubtful that the A-10 will exceed the Big East this season, but that is just my opinion. What is more factual is that while both the A-10 and the BE lost some top programs, the BE loss was far, far worse than the A-10's. Syracuse alone was a significant loss especially in the critical NY market. There were intangible benefits from being in a BCS conference and being associated with football schools, but the BE basketball only schools never could grasp that feature. Once the euphoria over the new league has dissipated, the old BE schools will find out what they missed. It is simply not the same conference, even if they poach more A-10 schools in the future.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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There isn't much differences between the two conferences and when you consider PC and St John's which are on the upswing but usually cyclical programs, I'm not sure how much better the Big East can really get.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

Unread post by CT Rhody »

You also can't compare last years teams vs this years. The bottom A-10 teams should all be much improved vs last year. The OOC games will be telling but expect the Little East to have more home games then the A-10 does. I would love to see that analysis done.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions for Big East Standings

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CT Rhody wrote:You also can't compare last years teams vs this years. The bottom A-10 teams should all be much improved vs last year. The OOC games will be telling but expect the Little East to have more home games then the A-10 does. I would love to see that analysis done.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

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Preseason Per KenPom Comparison ...

1 - Creighton #13/VCU #21
2 - Georgetown #14/St. Louis #31
3 - Marquette #24/ LaSalle #55
4 - Villanova #26/ UMASS #60
5 - Providence #41/ Richmond #66
6 - St. John's #47/ Dayton #68
7 - Butler #53/ St. Joseph's #74
8 - Xavier #57/ George Mason #89
9 - Seton Hall #63/ George Washington #120
10 - DePaul #84/ Rhode Island #132
------------St. Bonaventure #146
------------Duquesne #173
------------Fordham #198

Average's (And We can Throw Out Outliers - 1st and Worst):

Big East: 40.625
A10: 92.182
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by twisted3829 »

isn't KenPom based on season stats? if so how can they have rankings with no stats?
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

twisted3829 wrote:isn't KenPom based on season stats? if so how can they have rankings with no stats?
From kenpom:

Why is [state your favorite team] rated lower than it should be?

It’s because one or both of the components is missing something. Perhaps recent seasons are not representative of your team’s normal level. The personnel component doesn’t consider transfers or recruits outside the top 100. It does have knowledge of players that played two seasons ago but missed last season, but that is a small influence. So if your team has players that the personnel component can’t see (transfers, junior college players, and non top-100 recruits for mid-majors), then it’s possible your team is underrated. Keep in mind, though, that the first component handles some of this. It effectively sets a “replacement level” for new players on the roster that aren’t accounted for in the personnel component.

The system doesn’t think as highly of freshmen as AP voters will and it likes good teams that return a lot of players. Hence Oklahoma State, Iowa, UConn, Creighton, and Stanford are ranked higher than the humans and Kentucky, Kansas, and Arizona are ranked lower. (Hey, the Fab Five were ranked #20 in the preseason by the humans, so leave me alone.) Andrew Wiggins and Julius Randle are not your typical first- and second-ranked recruits, so perhaps I could have made some subjective adjustments here, but I chose not to.

Last season, the system managed to hold its own against others, with a mean absolute error of about 2.14 on predicting conference wins. It had some good calls and some bad ones, some of which were discussed in the linked piece. Refer to your local message board archives for additional details.

It’s worth mentioning that at the end of the season, any conference’s standings will not look like what is currently predicted. Meaning, it’s obviously going to take more than 12 wins to win the Big East or 13 to win the Big Ten. But the top teams in those conferences are similar enough that a reasonable expectation for the win total of each of those teams can not be very high.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

RJ, thanks for posting that explanation from KenPom. We can now all agree that his preseason ratings are more and more useless as transfers become more commonplace and coaching changes cause additional turnover.

Therefore, your BigEast/A10 comparison is useless.

No way Butler will be #53 and no way RI will be 130. Almost better to blend together all the media's preseason guesses since at least they can account for these off season changes.

Past performance does not guantee future results, Ken Pom!! This is his system's #1 weakness. He needs in-season data, and lots of it, for his rankings to work.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by peeps4life »

i know losing brad stevens hurts, but why are all a10 fans crapping on butler? they did pretty good replacing their last coach in house with stevens. why would that not work again?
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by twisted3829 »

they lost quite a few players plus their best player is out for the year with a torn ACL
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

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peeps4life wrote:i know losing brad stevens hurts, but why are all a10 fans crapping on butler? they did pretty good replacing their last coach in house with stevens. why would that not work again?
Maybe by "all A10 fans" you mean Big East coaches, as they are the ones who picked Butler 9th.



And why isn't this in the all other college sports section?
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

twisted3829 wrote:they lost quite a few players plus their best player is out for the year with a torn ACL
THIS, Peeps. Have YOU done YOUR homework on Butler?
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by ace »

Thought it was wrist ligaments? But the point remains- best returning scorer and rebounder out for the season.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

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couldn't remember, you may be right ace
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by SmartyBarrett »

ATPTourFan wrote:Past performance does not guantee future results, Ken Pom!! This is his system's #1 weakness. He needs in-season data, and lots of it, for his rankings to work.
Amen, and he needs a large sample, too. His rankings aren't worth paying attention to until teams are 12-15 games deep into their seasons.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings - Move to All Coll

Unread post by ramster »

ace wrote:
peeps4life wrote:i know losing brad stevens hurts, but why are all a10 fans crapping on butler? they did pretty good replacing their last coach in house with stevens. why would that not work again?
Maybe by "all A10 fans" you mean Big East coaches, as they are the ones who picked Butler 9th.



And why isn't this in the all other college sports section?
ATP,
Can you move this to the all college section as I requested in the modified title? Thank you
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

While I don't think you can extrapolate every teams data as gospel at this point, apparently Pom's preseason W/L average to real W/L average is 2.5 games either way. I'd say given the law of averages, some teams will great exceed expectations, others will greatly fail expectations. Usually it balances out. The data likely isn't that horrendous that large fluctuations in average position would occur.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

2.5 games swing in the A10 is literally the difference most seasons from finishing 11th and 5th.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I agree with that ATP. My point was more that 2.5 games might bring URI from 132 to 95 (or something like that), but could also bring a school like GW from 120 to 150. In terms of average team position per Ken Pom, I think nearly everything balances out in the wash. Some teams will outperform, others will underperform, but will it drastically change the Big East's average position from 40 or the A10's average position from 90? Maybe the BE drops to 50 and the A10 jumps to 80, but it would still be a significant difference.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

And I can agree with that, RJ. Therefore, I still think we cannot do a side-by-side comparison of pre-season conf rankings. I'd be fine with doing season-end comparisons or even Jan 1 comparisons.

KenPom uses previous seasons' performance to guide his pre-season rankings, so Rhody is going to be underrated as they are coming off two historically bad seasons which will be nothing like the adjusted offense/defense numbers produced this year.

In the end, it will be fun to see how this new stronger secondary tier of basketball conferences (A10, BigEast, MtnWest, etc) compare once the games begin.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Agree, ATP. I'm sorry for the confusion. I didn't mean to make it appear like individual comparisons, just the conference in it's entirity. To be honest, the preseason rankings are not perfect. He admits to favoring veteran, experienced teams who have already played together. As someone who openly faught about Big East recruiting last year as a conference as a whole not having a lot of recruiting needs given there were not many open scholarships, I'm more than willing to admit the Big East has been slightly overrated in these preseason rankings. KenPom says the BE is the 2nd best conference in America, largely because of it's depth. By the time everything is said and done, it could be one of the better conferences (PAC, SEC, B12 have a lot of talented teams up top but little depth), but will clearly lack that top end firepower that I think prevents them from being one of the best. It's all about making it far in March.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

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rjsuperfly66 wrote:Agree, ATP. I'm sorry for the confusion. I didn't mean to make it appear like individual comparisons, just the conference in it's entirity. To be honest, the preseason rankings are not perfect. He admits to favoring veteran, experienced teams who have already played together. As someone who openly faught about Big East recruiting last year as a conference as a whole not having a lot of recruiting needs given there were not many open scholarships, I'm more than willing to admit the Big East has been slightly overrated in these preseason rankings. KenPom says the BE is the 2nd best conference in America, largely because of it's depth. By the time everything is said and done, it could be one of the better conferences (PAC, SEC, B12 have a lot of talented teams up top but little depth), but will clearly lack that top end firepower that I think prevents them from being one of the best. It's all about making it far in March.
SF,
When I average your 10 BE Teams I get 42.2 (not 40.6), and I get 71.6 for the Top 10 A10 Teams. I know that some will say that we should not include the bottom 3 teams in the A10 - I get that, but I'll also say that we should just compare 10 teams from each conference - in the end the number of teams GOING to the NCAA and the NIT will be what matters - and not the number of teams who are NOT going.

If I include the bottom 3 teams from the A10 then the average for the A10 becomes much worse at 94.8 (not 92.2 that you had)

BE - Ten Teams
13
14
24
26
41
47
53
57
63
84
42.2

A10 - Top 10 Only
21
31
55
60
66
68
74
89
120
132
71.6

A10 - All 13 Teams
21
31
55
60
66
68
74
89
120
132
146
173
198
94.8
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by Carl K Tortella »

Hey seanmc94 , You are certainly an expert on pin heads!!! Now go over to Brad's with the rest of the most homgeneous student body in America and have a Slow Gin Fizz!
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Hey Ramster,

If you saw what I said about my averages, I removed the best and worst team from each league to account for "outliers." That's why the average numbers are different from my numbers and yours.

Also, I can see the point of comparing 10 v 10, but the A10 is still a 13 team league so you can't just discount certain teams. In these projections, those A10 teams up top are getting credit for those W's, so how can you just remove them? If you are comparing the depth of the conference, it requires looking at every team. That said, even going 10v10, still a significant difference.

Regardless, really means nothing until the games are played. But I think it should at least cause hesitation to those who say "Well the BE is not that good" or "They'll be lucky to be the 10th best conference in the country."
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by ramster »

rjsuperfly66 wrote:Hey Ramster,

If you saw what I said about my averages, I removed the best and worst team from each league to account for "outliers." That's why the average numbers are different from my numbers and yours.

Also, I can see the point of comparing 10 v 10, but the A10 is still a 13 team league so you can't just discount certain teams. In these projections, those A10 teams up top are getting credit for those W's, so how can you just remove them? If you are comparing the depth of the conference, it requires looking at every team. That said, even going 10v10, still a significant difference.

Regardless, really means nothing until the games are played. But I think it should at least cause hesitation to those who say "Well the BE is not that good" or "They'll be lucky to be the 10th best conference in the country."
Sorry SF I missed that about the top and bottom.
You could say that about all preseason polls and predictions - that's why they call them preseason.
I still like looking at it 10 versus 10 -the number of teams selected for the NCAA is what counts - who cares what percentage of the league teams make the NCAA from the ACC,AAC, BE, A10, BIG 10, SEC, etc it's all about the pure number of teams that make it, always has and always will.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

I agree to an extent. I think there are really three things at play...

1) How many teams get in?
2) Where do they seed?
3) How do they perform?

If you get 6 teams in the tournament but are mainly low seeds and lose most of their games in the first round, then it's a rather unsuccessful tournament. At that point you would likely favor the conference with less teams in who does more with it.

That said, I'd still favor the conference that got 4 teams in with 10 teams than 4 teams in with 12 teams. Typically means one conference tougher than the other.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by ramster »

rjsuperfly66 wrote:I agree to an extent. I think there are really three things at play...

1) How many teams get in?
2) Where do they seed?
3) How do they perform?

If you get 6 teams in the tournament but are mainly low seeds and lose most of their games in the first round, then it's a rather unsuccessful tournament. At that point you would likely favor the conference with less teams in who does more with it.

That said, I'd still favor the conference that got 4 teams in with 10 teams than 4 teams in with 12 teams. Typically means one conference tougher than the other.
For sure agree that bottom line it is about how well (or not so well) the teams from the Conference that get selected perform in the Tournament. Certainly Georgetown is an example of the underachieving side of the coin.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

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Carl K Tortella wrote:Hey seanmc94 , You are certainly an expert on pin heads!!! Now go over to Brad's with the rest of the most homgeneous student body in America and have a Slow Gin Fizz!
To quote a recently deposed radio kingpin; "you're making my point"
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by Carl K Tortella »

Referencing my post here on Oct. 25 about the least of the big east or soon to be renamed the little east based on the early returns of this season , I rest my case!!!!!! Hey friar fans , how is your new league working out for you ? Get a reality check and stop living in the past. The upper 10 teams of the A 10 are better than your league.......
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by seanmc94 »

So 4 games in; you think you are right? How about at least one season before you dance on the grave of the BE? BTW, speaking of early returns, the BE is more than holding it's own in the early signing period.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by bigappleram »

why do we stir the pot with posts like this Tortorella...its 3 games in. Leave it alone, who cares about the BE vs A10, lets get our team to the top of the mountain first. The BE is perceived to be better, whether you want to admit it or not, and until we have years of placing more teams and performing better in the tourney we have no laurels to rest on.
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by seanmc94 »

A couple of posters were yucking it up over the BEs struggles in the tourney last year after some early round exits. How'd that work out?
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Carl K Tortella
Abdul Fox
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by Carl K Tortella »

The little east has become a so called mid-major league !!! Get over it and enjoy the season.
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rjsuperfly66
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by rjsuperfly66 »

Tell that to the experts or the recruits ... So far through 2+ weeks KenPom has the Big East as the 2nd best conference in the country.
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ATPTourFan
Frank Keaney
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by ATPTourFan »

RJ, can't possibly go by KenPom's ratings yet. Soon, not yet. Can we agree that small sample size issues exist? Let's come back to this around Thxgiving weekend and the week leading up to our rivalry game with a bunch more games in the formula.
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seanmc94
Tom Garrick
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Re: 4 Sources of Predictions BE Standings

Unread post by seanmc94 »

Carla Tortella started the argument based on a small sample size. We are just refuting his opinion with facts.
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